Mini 588: Achewood Mafia - Game Over!

[populartajo]

Does Musher assuming that Im scum for not having "drinking" in my PM tell us he's town or scum?
I think town since its reasonable to suspect someone when you have a townie PM and you DO drink, as Musher says.
Right?

[Cipher]

We're pulling in way too many different directions here. When I get a minute I'll try my best to sort through the available information and present a summary of what I believe are the facts, and see if we can at least get agreement on those.

[populartajo]

Has anyone asked this before? OG Smokedank, do you drink? Is it specfied in your PM?

FLAVOR ALERT
This is what I found about Todd.

Todd is an illiterate, drug-dealing squirrel, drives a miniature squirrel-sized van, and is friends with Philippe.

He probably drinks.
Now, it seems that some of the "good guys" do drink. It doesnt mention anything about drinking when refering to other caractheres. I think lulu can help us with this?

In conclusion, and IMO
1. Drinking or not drinking IS NOT indicative of allignement as OG Smokedank has implied. It probably means something but I dont know yet.
2. The debate about this probably should end and we should start looking for scum the good ol fashioned way.
3. Alabaska feels scummier than OG.
Reason: When OG explained his PM, Alabaska commented this:

i'm cornelius the bartender, because everyone in town comes in to drink at my bar, i know everyone in town and know who is a drinker and who isnt. this strongly implies that drinkers are not among the town and are therefore scum.

Or it could imply that those who drink are scum and those who don't are town. The mafia could chill out at your bar, for all we know. Seeing as PBuG was a five-year old stuffed animal…

After he acepts that he drinks. What does it mean? Why would he come up with a theory about drunk scum when he DOES drink?

[Alabaska J]

i'm cornelius the bartender, because everyone in town comes in to drink at my bar, i know everyone in town and know who is a drinker and who isnt. this strongly implies that drinkers are not among the town and are therefore scum.

Or it could imply that those who drink are scum and those who don't are town. The mafia could chill out at your bar, for all we know. Seeing as PBuG was a five-year old stuffed animal…

After he acepts that he drinks. What does it mean? Why would he come up with a theory about drunk scum when he DOES drink?

Dear god you are looking WAY too much into my post. All I was trying to point out was that not drinking could be town and drinking could be scum just as easily as drinking could be town and not drinking could be scum. Also, just as Cipher says, my pm mentions that I do drink, and I drink in the comic (from what I've read, anyway), but it doesn't make a big deal about it or anything. Also, the reason I am being very aggressive here is b/c it sounded like such a small detail and OG claimed this small detail was something else. This mixing up of details is scummy, especially when you are a flavor cop. Also, seeing as we have a REAL cop (and probably a doc somewhere too) I'm sure we can get our cop to investigate me tonight and live so that we don't lynch a townie for no reason, lulu.

[NabakovNabakov]

Vote Count as of Post 353

Alabaska J (2):

OG Smokedank, lulumuumuu

OG Smokedank (1):

Alabaska J

Not Voting (7):

Greasy Spot, thinktank, Musher333, DragonsofSummer, Cipher, populartajo, mustafa15

6 to lynch

Sorry it's been so long since a VC.

That's my bad.

[lulu muumuu]

Also, seeing as we have a REAL cop (and probably a doc somewhere too) I'm sure we can get our cop to investigate me tonight and live so that we don't lynch a townie for no reason, lulu.

why do you guys think this is a good idea? if this is your big plan, how are we supposed to confirm that our cop is telling the truth without alabaska dead?

ANYONE could be lying. the only way to know who is telling the truth is for someone to die so we get confirmation of their alignment.

so tell you what, whomever you decide to investigate, doc needs to protect the cop, and then the investigatee MUST DIE the next day. of course this could backfire too, as mafia already knows everyone's alignment.

[Cipher]

Ok, CipherFacts! I'm hoping we can at least get agreement on these as a starting point, and then go from there. For the purposes of the first part, I'm assuming that everyone is telling the truth in their claims - I'll address who may or may not be lying at the end.

Roles

OG has an investigative role which tells her whether a player drinks.

DoS is a cop - his result is in the form of the player's alignment. His sanity is thus far unproven, but his innocent result on PBuG shows that he is either sane or naive.

Drinking

OG's result indicates that Alabaska doesn't drink.

Alabaska's PM states that he drinks.

populartajo doesn't drink. 323 implies that this is not in his PM.

My PM states that I don't drink.

lulu's PM doesn't specify whether she drinks, but she believes that she does.

mustafa15 drinks. 340 says that this is implied in his PM.

Greasy Spot's PM doesn't state whether he drinks, but 334 implies that he does.

DoS clearly doesn't drink at the bar, since he's not actually in the comic. 347 confirms that his PM doesn't mention drinking.

Musher believes that information on drinking is in the town PM, but hasn't said whether he drinks or not.

Conclusions

Drinking is not indicative of alignment, unless a number of the scum just voluntarily outed themselves.

Barring outside interference, one of Alabaska and OG is probably lying. The only other reasonable explanation that I can see is the existence of a role that switches night actions around (e.g. bus driver).

OG is probably sane, unless NabNab is a complete bastard.

DoS will be proven sane if he gets a guilty result on anyone at all.

[lulu muumuu]

so who do you suggest we lynch today?

[mustafa15]

I would say that we are doing a lot of guessing without any real action. Sorry Alabaska, but lynching you will give us a lot for information, so I'm going to

vote Alabaska J

. It's possible that you are townie, I'm not as sure as I would like to be, but if you are scum then we have a confirmed cop, and if not then we are... stuck... Also, if DoS could investigate Alabaska tonight, then we would get some more info. Does this plan sound good to you guys?

[lulu muumuu]

i don't like this plan. if alabaska gets lynched we can't investigate him tonight

[populartajo]

Alabaska I still think that post I mentioned is a little bit scummy. If you did drink why did you have to speculate about scum being drinkers in OG's bar?

I have a plan.

My plan is based in the fact that one of Alabaska and OG is lying. So its your last chance to inform us that you indeed told us the truth. I dont want anyone tomorrow claiming "Uh, I guess I misread" or "Uh, I lied to get that scum lynched". LAST CHANCE.

Anyways, my plan is pretty simple.
We have to lynch either Alabaska or OG.

If we lynch Alabaska then what happens. He could be town or scum but we WONT have any information whether he drinks or not (Todd Todd was only a Goon and Philipee is just 5) therefore we cant confirm OG as a power role. If Alabaska's scum then we're in a fine position and we can afford to even lynch OG if we need to. But if he's town then what? Does that make OG town or scum? We wouldnt know.

Now, If we lynch OG then what happens. He could be town or scum but we WILL have any information about his power role since she says that it targets. If OG is indeed a Flavor Cop then Alabaska is lying and pretty much is scum. We lynch him and we would be in the same situation above with the only difference that we lose our girl (unless something crazy happens)

In the other hand Dragon of Summer might have another chance to investigate OG, if we lynch Alabaska, or another player of his choice (if he isnt killed, roleblocked, etc, etc). Take in count that OG claimed cop D1 and now she' alive.

Logic tells us to lynch OG but if you want a sincere opinion, my gut tells me that Alabaska is lying and that OG supposed too much.

Thats my plan. What do you think? Logic or gut? OG or Alabaska?

[populartajo]

BTW my plan is shit if OG is indeed the flavor cop but he gets wrong results.

[OG Smokedank]

If we lynch Alabaska then what happens. He could be town or scum but we WONT have any information whether he drinks or not (Todd Todd was only a Goon and Philipee is just 5) therefore we cant confirm OG as a power role. If Alabaska's scum then we're in a fine position and we can afford to even lynch OG if we need to. But if he's town then what? Does that make OG town or scum? We wouldnt know.

tell you what, if alabaska flips town, i will even vote myself tomorrow.

[Erg0]

so who do you suggest we lynch today?

I'm getting to that. Still working through the permutations in my head.

[thinktank]

It says I drink at Smoke in my pm. From the evidence given it seems as though this isn't indicative of alignment so I doubt this information is really all that useful. OG considering that the drinking probably isn't indicative of alignment unless a few scum just outed themselves, how can you keep pushing the Alabaska wagon based on your night result? Besides if we lynch Alabaska and hes town, then we lynch you purely on the fact that you pushed Alabaska and you turn up town, then we're in a pickle of a position. So how bout we not rush the lynch and just lynch correctly tonight who we're almost certain is scum.

[OG Smokedank]

It says I drink at Smoke in my pm. From the evidence given it seems as though this isn't indicative of alignment so I doubt this information is really all that useful. OG considering that the drinking probably isn't indicative of alignment unless a few scum just outed themselves, how can you keep pushing the Alabaska wagon based on your night result? Besides if we lynch Alabaska and hes town, then we lynch you purely on the fact that you pushed Alabaska and you turn up town, then we're in a pickle of a position. So how bout we not rush the lynch and just lynch correctly tonight who we're almost certain is scum.

because alabaska claimed the opposite of my result which means he's lying.

[Cipher]

Ok, I'm boiling this down to a choice of whether to lynch Alabaska or let him through to tomorrow:

1. If we lynch him and he's town then we're down a pro-town player. The fact that almost everyone is suspicious of him at this point mitigates this somewhat. We don't get any additional information on our claimed power roles.

2. If we lynch him and he's scum then we're down two scum and looking strong. Again, this doesn't help us figure anything out regarding our claimed power roles.

3. If we let him live and he's town then DoS can investigate him tonight and will doubtless get an innocent result. I guess this leaves us in pretty much the same position tomorrow.

4. If we let him live and he's scum then DoS can investigate him and may get either an innocent or guilty result. If he gets an innocent then we're back in the same situation again tomorrow. If he gets a guilty then we have a certified sane cop and we lynch Alabaska tomorrow.

The other thing to consider is that DoS may get killed tonight, which would mean that we get no result at all tomorrow. Looking at it broken down like this, I can't see a good argument in favour of letting Alabaska live, since the worst case scenario doesn't leave us that much worse off than we are now (minus one pro-town player). The best case from letting him live (as scum) is very good, but there are enough variables in play that I don't think the odds of that situation occurring are high enough to justify the risk of lynching someone else and finding ourselves right back where we started tomorrow.

Vote: Alabaska J

OG's claim is basically an irrelevance at this point. Unless Alabaska comes up as a drinker I'm pretty much going to assume that she's telling the truth, but that her results are meaningless.

[mustafa15]

Huh. I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote up 358...

I'd say that there is no way that we can lynch OG, a claimed power role, without proof that she was lying.

[lulu muumuu]

My plan is based in the fact that one of Alabaska and OG is lying.

i agree PT, it's OG or alabaska, but like mustafa i'm uncomfortable lynching a claimed power role (even if it turns out to be a weak power).
however, i've been wary since the beginning of this day and i've kept OG under suspicion:
1) because of my reasons way back when, and
2) because her power of seeing who is in the bar (plus knowing that drinking isn't mentioned in everyone's role) seems inconsistent.

the more i think about it, the more confused i get because maybe OG only sees if someone has a night action, making alabaska town. but then why would he lie about being a drinker? i just don't know and that's why my vote stays for now.

[populartajo]

Lets do things simpler. Is anyone Cornelius the Bartender, the role that OG claims to be?

[Musher333]

Ok, CipherFacts! I'm hoping we can at least get agreement on these as a starting point, and then go from there. For the purposes of the first part, I'm assuming that everyone is telling the truth in their claims - I'll address who may or may not be lying at the end.

Roles

OG has an investigative role which tells her whether a player drinks.

DoS is a cop - his result is in the form of the player's alignment. His sanity is thus far unproven, but his innocent result on PBuG shows that he is either sane or naive.

Drinking

OG's result indicates that Alabaska doesn't drink.

Alabaska's PM states that he drinks.

populartajo doesn't drink. 323 implies that this is not in his PM.

My PM states that I don't drink.

lulu's PM doesn't specify whether she drinks, but she believes that she does.

mustafa15 drinks. 340 says that this is implied in his PM.

Greasy Spot's PM doesn't state whether he drinks, but 334 implies that he does.

DoS clearly doesn't drink at the bar, since he's not actually in the comic. 347 confirms that his PM doesn't mention drinking.

Musher believes that information on drinking is in the town PM, but hasn't said whether he drinks or not.

Conclusions

Drinking is not indicative of alignment, unless a number of the scum just voluntarily outed themselves.

Barring outside interference, one of Alabaska and OG is probably lying. The only other reasonable explanation that I can see is the existence of a role that switches night actions around (e.g. bus driver).

OG is probably sane, unless NabNab is a complete bastard.

DoS will be proven sane if he gets a guilty result on anyone at all.

um... look again, i said i drink when someone asked me, i quoted them and said yes i do drink.

[Cipher]

Ah yup - missed that post. Doesn't change the result, though.

[Greasy Spot]

I agree with Cipher's logic and the fact that Alabaska's claim doesn't match with OG.

vote: Alabaska

[Greasy Spot]

Dang!...I missed the Hammer by one vote...Just kidding

[populartajo]

so who do you suggest we lynch today?

I'm getting to that. Still working through the permutations in my head.

That would explain why Ergo is still here.
Anyways, if I believe in Greasy Spot the next vote will be the hammer. Im willing to hammer him if we all agree. Alabaska claim, last words, etc.