Newbie 588 - Game Over!

[Mokina]

Unvote

Let's see how this plays out.

Official Vote Count

Abstract Actuary - 1 (goborage)
Grum - 1 (springlullaby)
The World No.1 Noob - 1 (Dave)

Dave - 2 (The World No.1 Noob, Claus)

Not Voting - 3 (Abstract Actuary, Grum, Mokina)

5 to Lynch

[The World No.1 Noob]

Unvote

[Abstract Actuary]

Town, should I wait for the replacements to read through the thread and make their comments before I post my reread comments or go ahead with them?

[Mokina]

Go ahead. This thread needs more post.

[Claus]

Hey, thanks mod for getting them replaced! Let's try to help the mod with the replacements.

unvote

.

I'll

vote Grum

based on my previous case, but Pending a re-read on other players.

As for No.1 Newbie responses:

1. Yeah, I know he is a newbie, but just as being replaced is a null-tell, being a newb is also a null tell. (however, playing the newbie card - saying "ooh, sorry, I'm doing this because I'm a noob" - is a small scum tell for me). But newbies can also be scum. Is there anything in his play that makes you believe he is not scum?

2. Already answered by the mod

3. I don't think your answer is arrogant, but I don't think it answer my question completely. Anyway, thinking about it, my question is not that relevant anyway now, so I'll just drop it.

===

Pending another re-read for this game.

[Abstract Actuary]

First I just highlight some events from the reread that I found interesting. Sorted by player, but mostly done in order of how I came across it.

Cat_Killer/Mokina

Cat_Killer adds the second vote to goborage during the joke voting stage,

Hey folks. <b>vote: no lynch</b> Can't we all get along?

It's [ and ] you need around tags.

Unvote
Vote: Goborage

Just for the fail

goborage FoS Cat_Killer for bandwagoning,

There are 2 mafia. Anyways FOS on Cat for bandwagoning (correct use of term?).

Cat_Killer responds by unvoting quickly and not bringing up the issue again.

Unvote

I'm tired and going to sleep. I will make further random accusations or actually play seriously tomorrow, when I'm awake.

She realizes she made a mistake and wants it to go away?

Grum

In this exchange roland comments about how he would expect a newb mafia to act.

wait rolandof, can u expland on the bandwagon thing? y would a mafia kill its own wouldn't that mean he'll have one less political ally? and I how come Mafiamurkrow hasn't made a post in a while?

A bandwagon is when people start jumping on a person trying to lynch them. And my theory is that THAT is why Mafiamurkrow hasn't gotten more votes. An unexperienced mafia would probably try to jump on his vote and get him quickly lynched. But if he is mafia, his partner surely wouldn't want to vote for him.

Grum is the next to post and this is what he says.

well then i'll do it cuz he need to post soon again anyway and at this point i don't care for him because hes a pokemon luber! terrible reason alone but hes been inactive. also i'm not his partner, if bandwagon was the reason behind everything no one would be lynched, and he lurks.

vote mafiamurkrow

A bit WIFOMy but I think newb scum may attempt to pull this off.

---

In this post Grum supports my cause. I think he is right about what he says, but it also sounds like scum trying to buddy up to me.

I don't know that just seems like hes being a valuable player to me. while it does set up murkrow to be on defensive, it is seemingly an effective way to get people to talk... if he throws accusations out there at random (not naming anyone rolandofthewhite...). my current thought is that abstract is really the most valuable player at the moment, calm and collect.

also i have to say your comment is rather funny...

This is finger-pointing, an attempt to make Mafiamurkrow look scummy.

followed in the same post by:

FOS: Abstract Actuary

fingers everywhere!!

---

There are two posts upcoming where I really get the feeling that Grum already knows the setup because he is scum.

what about 2 goons, sane doc, sane cop, 5 town?
thats my guess...

Sorry about that I did overreact there I think progresive observation and logical claims is the correct way to win not just pointing fingers at people because their confused...
Any how I'll try not to leave words uncapitalized. So whos been absent from the forums it seems like( aside from those on vacation like cat killa) people are lurking around here. lets assume that we have a doc and a cop, and then we can progress.

Underlined, mine. If he is mafia and they didn't pass, then he already knows the exact setup. This could be to throw us off the setup or because he knows it to be true and it was a slip.

I can definitely see mafia making this post under either mafia set up scenario.

FoS Grum

The World's No.1 Noob

People have brought this up already . . . but in this first post she seems to understand the value of taking as much time as possible.

april 19th, well thats not too bad we still got 10 days to gather as much info as we can.

And later she is the one to drop the premature hammer.

I agree with that, I'm not actually 100% sure she's mafia because her replies are too mafiaish, wouldn't a real mafia have thought up a better plan? But as camisade said her attitude is anti townie and its better to kill her to make things easier for the townies

vote: Mafiamurkrow

Fixed - Vel

However, I've gotten a very strong town read on her other than this instance.

goborage

In this post goborage names his top two suspects and Grum isn't on the list. Despite him FoSing Grum twice and putting a lot of pressure on him in the posts before this one. Is goborage pointing out the suspicious things Grum is doing to help him out while not fueling a potential lynch by not voting and not listing him? camisade even pointed out the double FoS with no vote.

Sorry about that I did overreact there I think progresive observation and logical claims is the correct way to win not just pointing fingers at people because their confused...

I'm not going to apologize for pointing fingers at people. No one here is scum-hunting and that's a problem. The issue isn't me being too aggressive, it's you being too passive.

Any how I'll try not to leave words uncapitalized. So whos been absent from the forums it seems like( aside from those on vacation like cat killa) people are lurking around here. lets assume that we have a doc and a cop, and then we can progress.

I agree there is a lot of inactivity here. But you can't complain about it when you do nothing to stop it. Lead by example and post questions/ suspicions. The more you post and the more questions you direct at people, the less people can lurk and get away with it.

@ Grum: Why would you assume we have a doctor and a cop?

@ everyone: In order to promote discussion I think we should all post the most suspicious people on our lists and the reasons for them.

I'll start. Everyone on MM's bandwagon should be under scrutiny, including me. Chances are at least one of them are scum. The problem I find is that lynching MM seemed so justifiable. Most of the votes seem to have been made in earnest because of MM's frustrating playstyle. The only outliers I see are:

1. Abstract Actuary: Wasn't actually on MM's bandwagon but was in my eyes, pro-lynch. His summary of MM's actions gives license to #1noob to hammer.

2. #1noob: Did not object to MM's playstyle at all prior to the hammer and hammered MM very quickly thereby not allowing for a roleclaim. His only defense? "o, sry"

These two are the most suspicious in my eyes. Looking forward to seeing everyone else's

camisade

In this response to goborage's suspicion, camisade sounds pretty defensive. Also, if the doctor successfully protected someone last night then they have a confirmed townie. camisade may be trying to make sure there is a level of doubt for the doctor.

These two are the most suspicious in my eyes:

camisade - sends mafiamurkrow to -1, "I agree. Or just lynch her because I've gotten sick of her BS." Seems to be pushing for a quick-lynch.

The World No.1 Noob - hammers mafiamurkrow without allowing a role-claim. Claims townie even though he isn't the one under suspicion - over-defensive.

About the no nightkill: Are mafia obliged to kill someone nightly or should we assume that a doctor miraculously saved a townie?

We didn't get anything relevant out of her ever, even when she was at L-1. All she posted was BS. Why sign up if you're not going to play the game?

No nightkill: I've read a game before where a lone Mafia claimed doctor and chose to forgo night killing and bluffed by saying that he protected someone. So I'm guessing Mafia is allowed to do that, but maybe it varies from mod to mod. I'm not sure

Dave

Well there isn't much in game stuff to analyze on Dave. There is the "awesome" post following the no night kill. In all honesty though, I had no reason to think he was scum until I read this post.

I think I figured out why there was no NK. The scum were too inactive to send one in by the deadline.

Or it was a trick Perhaps, players that have been consistently active throughtout the game, are the mafia, and did not send in the night action to frame the less active players with a post like this.

Fos: Goborage

goborage suggests (I think jokingly) that there was no night kill because the mafia didn't send in a kill. This implies that the inactive people are the mafia. The most inactive person has been Dave. His response to the goborage post is really telling, in my opinion.

Based on independent events my suspect list is

Grum
Dave
----big gap-----
goborage
camisade

In addition there is decent reason to believe that Grum and Dave are partners. For one thing, based on interactions in the thread I think any partners other than Dave and goborage are unlikely for Grum.

For most of day 2 Grum would mention Dave on his suspicion lists and put him 3rd out of 4. In my experience this is a common place to put your scum buddy. Now we get to a point where Grum and Dave are by far the top two suspects in the town and now Grum changes his focus to Dave. This seems like him trying to distance himself now that he realizes one of the two of them will likely go down today.

No, hes straight up lurking and I've been hoping he would stop if he was newb town... hes looking very scummy but I'm not looking forward to another day 1. So I'm holding off just now but hes the number 1 scummiest right next to me... wait...

I also get a slight sense of "annoyed partner" from this post.

I also think goborage with either Dave or Grum is a possibility. Even though I also wanted to slow down the Dave lynch for pro-town reasons, if Dave is scum his partner may also try to slow down the wagon. goborage definitely does that. In addition, there was the post where goborage attempts to shift the focus away from Dave when the rest of the town wanted the focus to be on Dave.

Also, the FoS/no vote/no mention on suspect list from goborage about Grum makes that partnership a possibility.

I'm not sure who camisade's partner is if he is scum. Most likely Dave, then goborage.

[Mokina]

Happy scumday, Claus...

Well there isn't much in game stuff to analyze on Dave. There is the "awesome" post following the no night kill. In all honesty though, I had no reason to think he was scum until I read this post.

I think I figured out why there was no NK. The scum were too inactive to send one in by the deadline.

Or it was a trick Perhaps, players that have been consistently active throughtout the game, are the mafia, and did not send in the night action to frame the less active players with a post like this.

Fos: Goborage

goborage suggests (I think jokingly) that there was no night kill because the mafia didn't send in a kill. This implies that the inactive people are the mafia. The most inactive person has been Dave. His response to the goborage post is really telling, in my opinion.

Beautiful. I completely missed that, but the post speaks volumes about Dave's strategy of "active lurking" in this game.

FoS: Dave

, and almost ready to vote.

[The World No.1 Noob]

However, I've gotten a very strong town read on her other than this instance.

"her"...I'm a guy, a male, apart from Mokina everyone here is...

Beautiful. I completely missed that, but the post speaks volumes about Dave's strategy of "active lurking" in this game.

Yea that is a very good point, but I think we should hold off on the voting because he's gonna get replaced, when the replacement comes it'll give us more information to work with.

[Mokina]

Yea that is a very good point, but I think we should hold off on the voting because he's gonna get replaced, when the replacement comes it'll give us more information to work with.

Also a valid approach. I'm not going to vote until Dave's replacement shows up. Whoever it is, they better have a

damn

good explanation for why Dave failed to contribute anything to the town but still responded to prods.

[Mokina]

I almost forgot.

Cake: Noob

[Claus]

Also a valid approach. I'm not going to vote until Dave's replacement shows up. Whoever it is, they better have a

damn

good explanation for why Dave failed to contribute anything to the town but still responded to prods.

Mokina, do you think it is possible for Dave's replacement to explain Dave's actions to us?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

springlullaby replaces camisade.

[Claus]

*cheers*

[Mokina]

Yaaaaay SL!

Mokina, do you think it is possible for Dave's replacement to explain Dave's actions to us?

To be honest, no... but it may be a Dave-specific issue. Maybe he just doesn't know how to play Mafia. This is a newbie game, after all.

[springlullaby]

Hi everyone
*Waves at Claus and Mokina*

1) I do not endorse a Goborage lynch today, he reads town.

2) I think a Grum lynch is a weak lynch, as his alignement is totally crapshot at this point. Dave fall into the same category to a lesser extent, as his non vote day one is a little more suspicious.

3)

FOS AA

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 80#1036180
I don't like the questions at the bottom of that post, they are numerous but also quite confusing, and more importantly, AA doesn't seem to show actual interest in the answers he got. I think it's highly probable AA is just throwing up questions out there to look town.

Plus, in regard to his last post, I highly doubt that a town IC would come to the conclusion that Grum and Dave are scum together.

In fact

Unvote, Vote: Abstract Actuary.

[goborage]

Wow an AA-lynch supporter. I've been alone for so long. Anyways I think the Grum/me connection is pretty weak. If I was trying to protect him then I did a pretty bad job as Grum has been voted for. Regarding the whole FoS thing, I've explained earlier that it was just a way to get Grum to post. Atm, no, I do not think Grum is scum.

The whole Dave/me connection is also pretty weak imo. It's a knee-jerk reaction to my pressuring AA to post. I think the thread can handle more than one conversation.

[Mokina]

The whole Dave/me connection is also pretty weak imo. It's a knee-jerk reaction to my pressuring AA to post. I think the thread can handle more than one conversation.

I misunderstood the post a little bit, and I don't suspect such a connection. Actually, the fact that you've chosen someone and pressured them to the end makes you look protown in my eyes. New-scum vote-hop opportunistically, and we can hardly accuse you of that!

[goborage]

I didn't word this very well; it was directed towards AA: The whole Dave/me connection is also pretty weak imo. It was a knee-jerk reaction from AA when I pressured him to post. I think the thread can handle more than one conversation.

[The World No.1 Noob]

SL:

I kinda agree with post 339, A.A's posts seem to draw at straws, really random can't even remember the post he made that you gave the link to but his recent post, post 330, is really grabbing thin air as well. However I do think voting for him straight away is a bit hasty. You've also set a very good relationship with gobo, he wasn't in any danger of getting lynched, nobody's was suspicous of him (well at least I'm not) so why the:

1) I do not endorse a Goborage lynch today, he reads town.

And now that I've taken a look at the vote count, gobo is the one that first voted for A.A, looks like you're trying to buddy with him and use his pro-town image in my opinion.

[Mokina]

SL:

I kinda agree with post 339, A.A's posts seem to draw at straws, really random can't even remember the post he made that you gave the link to but his recent post, post 330, is really grabbing thin air as well. However I do think voting for him straight away is a bit hasty. You've also set a very good relationship with gobo, he wasn't in any danger of getting lynched, nobody's was suspicous of him (well at least I'm not) so why the:

1) I do not endorse a Goborage lynch today, he reads town.

And now that I've taken a look at the vote count, gobo is the one that first voted for A.A, looks like you're trying to buddy with him and use his pro-town image in my opinion.

You may be onto something, Noob! Goborage has been actively scumhunting, and furthermore he's focused his attention on a single player. It would be a good move for any scum to ally with Goborage during the day, since he as a very good reputation with the town and has historically helped those who agree with him.

Goborage is in no danger of a lynch today, but SL seems to be ingratiating herself with him anyway. It's a little suspicious, but probably not enough to convict someone as scum. Doing a reread of SL's posts might be helpful.

[Abstract Actuary]

However, I've gotten a very strong town read on her other than this instance.

"her"...I'm a guy, a male, apart from Mokina everyone here is...

Sorry about that. Cat_Killer was a girl, I believe, and I guess I confused your genders.

================

1) I do not endorse a Goborage lynch today, he reads town.

This is a strange reaction and a very strange first point to make. There is essentially no pressure for a goborage lynch at all. Most people think he is town and only myself and Grum have expressed any suspicion of goborage.

On a bigger level, your whole post is almost as if you are only responding to my long scumhunting post and attacking me in general. I'd like to hear your opinion on all the actions so far and on all the players.

--This is why I would have preferred waiting for the replacements to come in and make their initial read through post before I posted my analysis. It gives them a copout not to do a thorough read through and post their own thoughts, by just responding to or echoing recent thoughts by others.

Now back to your statement.

1) I do not endorse a Goborage lynch today, he reads town.

For a while I thought so too. His wild attacking play is not typical of newb-scum and I was getting a strong town read. But as it continued I began to realize that his attacks were pretty chaotic and weak and he was actually disrupting more than he was helping. Especially during the Dave standoff.

2) I think a Grum lynch is a weak lynch, as his alignement is totally crapshot at this point.

I agree that the strongest characteristic of Grum's play so far is newb, which could lead someone to believe his alignment is a crapshoot. But it also stinks of newb-scum. Please reread Claus and my case against him or more importantly reread Grum's play as a whole.

Dave fall into the same category to a lesser extent, as his non vote day one is a little more suspicious.

I'm not sure what you mean here or what your point is - especially the second part of your sentence. I think the first part is saying that you think Dave's alignment is also a crapshoot? I can understand that more. I felt the same way until I reread the thread. I think his reaction to goborage's joke about the no-night-kill outed him. Also, his continued active lurking after we told him numerous times that it was anti-town does not bode well for him.

3)

FOS AA

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 80#1036180
I don't like the questions at the bottom of that post, they are numerous but also quite confusing, and more importantly, AA doesn't seem to show actual interest in the answers he got. I think it's highly probable AA is just throwing up questions out there to look town.

The point of the questions were the make Noob rethink what he was saying and put it in his own words. His previous post just seemed to be a weak attempt at supporting the goborage attack on me without really thinking about it himself. I wanted to force him to actually read through the whole discussion and give his opinion on every aspect which wouldn't allow him to simply restate a previous comments by someone else. He responded and it seemed as though he actually read through the whole discussion the second time and I thought it correctly adjusted his opinion of the situation. I didn't think a response was necessary.

Plus, in regard to his last post, I highly doubt that a town IC would come to the conclusion that Grum and Dave are scum together.

Really? Why? What have they done that makes you think they are not scum buddies? But you think a scum IC would come to that conclusion? That is what you are implying. I'd like to hear why you think a scum IC would come to that conclusion.

In fact

Unvote, Vote: Abstract Actuary.

This is a pretty extreme reaction to your initial string of thoughts and makes you seem desperate, although I'm not sure why you would be at this point. camisade wasn't facing much pressure at all. Although he was probably the consensus 3rd best pick for scum at this point. What is your case against me? The things you laid out above are at best a criticism of my scum finding abilities. Nothing that points to me being scum.

================

Wow an AA-lynch supporter. I've been alone for so long.

Really? You'd lynch me right now? You think I'm scum? I know you've been pretty focused on pressuring me and you're obviously

suspicious

of me, but that is much different then being ready to lynch me. You haven't really brought any scum case against me at this point. You've just attacked a few of the points that I've made.

Anyways I think the Grum/me connection is pretty weak. If I was trying to protect him then I did a pretty bad job as Grum has been voted for. Regarding the whole FoS thing, I've explained earlier that it was just a way to get Grum to post. Atm, no, I do not think Grum is scum.

Just because you did a weak job at protecting him doesn't mean the connection is weak. And I would argue that you didn't do a weak job at all. He was acting really scummy. You pointed out some reasons why with FoS. He may have received a vote or two at that time (not sure if he actually did), but he was never in danger of a lynch back then. And he took your advice. The focus wasn't on him again until very recently.

The whole Dave/me connection is also pretty weak imo. It's a knee-jerk reaction to my pressuring AA to post. I think the thread can handle more than one conversation.

No, it's not a knee-jerk reaction at all. I was genuinely surprised that you didn't understand the situation. I agree in almost all cases it is completely fine for the town to have multiple conversations. In fact, it is beneficial. But when we have a player who is openly and actively lurking the town has to force him to post. Starting other conversations and pressuring other people allows that player to continue to lurk. It allows him to be forgotten about. The town had decided it was time for Dave to actually play or be lynched or replaced.

In fact, if I had posted my analysis that is exactly what would have happened. You and some others would have focused on my hunting, the people I attacked would have tried to defend themselves (except Dave) and Dave would have continued picking up his prods and not posting, or posting once or twice here and there.

Also, your protection of him extended beyond that post. I'll quote others if you need me to, but you've said other times that you were against lynching Dave.

[Abstract Actuary]

Sorry for the double post. I meant to respond to this too.

The whole Dave/me connection is also pretty weak imo. It's a knee-jerk reaction to my pressuring AA to post. I think the thread can handle more than one conversation.

I misunderstood the post a little bit, and I don't suspect such a connection. Actually, the fact that you've chosen someone and pressured them to the end makes you look protown in my eyes. New-scum vote-hop opportunistically, and we can hardly accuse you of that!

Well, vote hopping can be scummy, but focusing on just one player can be even more scummy. Especially when that player isn't facing other pressure. It is the perfect way for scum to leave very little trail. For instance, lets say goborage dies today and he is scum. Most of his posts have been attacking me and it makes it tougher for us to find his partner among the other players.

Also, if you are scum and you've been focusing on one townie all game it allows you to protect your scum buddy when they come under pressure very easily without being obvious that you are doing it. Afterall ScumA has been pressuring TownZ all game so it isn't out of the ordinary, but it serves the purpose of turning the rest of the town's attention away from ScumB who was just being pressured.

In conclusion, focusing on just one player the whole game is actually very anti-town and convenient for good scum.

[Mokina]

I think we can obtain quite a bit of information from a Dave lynch. I'm not sure who's replacing him, but they've been prodded by now and it looks like they're following the same pattern. Dave's a much safer lynch for today than anyone else here.

Vote: Dave

[Abstract Actuary]

I think we can obtain quite a bit of information from a Dave lynch. I'm not sure who's replacing him, but they've been prodded by now and it looks like they're following the same pattern. Dave's a much safer lynch for today than anyone else here.

Vote: Dave

I don't think a replacement has been found, yet.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

No I don't have a replacement for either Dave or Grum yet.