Mini 578 - Mistery at Montescuro - Game Over!

[Albert B. Rampage]

All this evidence points to Macavenger being scum with Joudas.

[mikeburnfire]

People on

Near

wagon:

Yosarian

,

SingingLibrarian

,

Guardian,

Phox

, Mac

People on

Near

wagon:

SingingLibrarian,

Macavenger, Joudas,

Dasquian, EvilGorillaz

People on

Near

wagon:

Singing Librarian

, Macavenger, Joudas,

Dasquian, DBE

People on

DBE

wagon:

Yosarian2,

Coron

,

MBF

People on

Near

wagon:

Singing Librarian

, Macavenger, Joudas,

Dasquian, DBE

,

MBF

People on Final

Coron

lynchwagon:

MBF,

Guardian,

DBE

, Mac

People on

Near

wagon:

Yosarian2,

Coron, Dasquian

People on

DBE

wagon:

Singing Librarian,

Joudas,

Near

People on

MBF

wagon:

Yos2,

Macavenger,

Guardian

(hopped off),

Dasquian, DBE, Singing Librarian

People on

Dasquian

wagon:

ABR, Guardian,

MBF

, Joudas,

DBE

People on

DBE

wagon:

Yos2

, Macavenger,

Singing Librarian, ABR, MBF, Guardian encouraging

People on

DBE

wagon:

Yos2

,

Singing Librarian,

Guardian, ABR

People on Final

Dasquian

lynchwagon:

Joudas, Pyrodwarf,

MBF, ABR

Macavenger,

Guardian

People on Pyrodwarf wagon:

Dasquian, Singing Librarian

People on DBE:

Yosarian

DBE

was not voting.

[mikeburnfire]

All this evidence points to Macavenger being scum with Joudas.

It also points equally to Mac being scum with Pyro.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Notice that Yosarian, Joudas and Macavenger are never all 3 on the same wagon so they can distance from each other.

[mikeburnfire]

Neither are Yosarian, Pyro, and Mac.

[Albert B. Rampage]

Neither are Yosarian, Pyro, and Mac.

Yes, but Pyro was only on

one

wagon..

[mikeburnfire]

That's not making me feel better bout the likelyhood of him being pro-town. Do you have anything else that could convince me that Joudas is more likely scum than Pyro?

[Albert B. Rampage]

Points to Pyro being scum.

Points to Joudas being scum with Mac.

Points to Joudas being scum.

Points to Mac being scum.

On Yosarian:

Pyro scarcely ever mentioned Yosarian, talked to him directly never.

Joudas didn't see scum in Yos once, agreed with him twice, never talked to him directly.

Mac defended Yosarian, and tried to shift ABR's vote from him to Pyro.

On Joudas:
Pyro argued with Joudas a bit, talked to him directly thrice

Mac defends Joudas. A lot. Check post 803 (his 91st)

Yos never talked about Joudas ever.

On Mac:
Pyro agreed with Mac at least five times, talked to him directly once.

Joudas didn't see scum in Mac five times, never talked to him directly.

Yos lightly suspected Mac for trying to direct the cop, not much after that.

Minor: Mac intended to work on his reply during the night, regardless of who dies. Because he knew he wouldn't be dead in the morning.

On Pyro:

Joudas made his case against Pyro early, during Yos's attack on me, and talked directly to him often.

Mac defends Pyro four or five times,

throws suspicion on him once.

Yos only talked about Pyro in hit-and-run suspicion

[Albert B. Rampage]

On the scummy scale, that would make:

Pyro: 1
Joudas: 2
Macavenger: 1

---

Joudas and Macavenger: 5

[Joudas]

You forgot something.

Points to Pyro being scum with Mac:

Pyro agreed with Mac at least five times, talked to him directly once.
Mac defends Pyro four or five times

You're also basing your argument completely on comparisons with other people, not on the scumminess of statements in general. It's a flawed argument.

[Macavenger]

I haven't had the kind of big blocks of time to devote to mafia recently that I'm used to, so I haven't been able to lay out a comprehensive response/case to everything by now as I would have liked. I've kinda given up on that for now and have decided to take things in stages. So, some analysis of Joudas's Day 1 play.

Assumption for some later analysis: PyroDwarf is scum.

Summary: Very little scumhunting, lots of shifts of suspicion in order to align with popular wagons and subtly push them. Avoids taking firm stands on many issues where possible. Attacks players a lot, but asks few questions, doesn't vote a lot. Mentions PyroDwarf only once, distancing a bit when Guardian is attacking him. Does not mention Yosarian at all, or at least not in any significant context. Ends the day coasting to a probable Near lynch with his vote sitting there for a while.

Very slightly edited notes:

* indicates scumhunting
(*) indicates possible scumhunting, but weak or not followed up much

3: Mild comment on my theory
4-8: Theory discussion on Guardian. Mirrored my feelings well, contributing to town read
*8: Mild questions for Guardian
9: Near probably scum, VH case is poor
4-10: Despite active discussion of theory with Guardian, carefully avoids taking a stand on Guardian, Near still scummy
10: Wild assumptions about Near, FoS
11: Unwilling to vote Near though
-- Near posts, gets people to unvote him, VH becomes vote leader
12: Suddenly VH is really scummy, Near not so much
(*)14: Asks Coron to support argument with quotes, possible hunting, but Coron produces only one quote with a little re-explanation, never follows up
15: As a wagon starts forming on Pyro, suddenly his play is very me too and antitown, despite getting no prior mention. Also, now that the town has pretty much ignored VH/Coron, he does too, and suddenly Near is pretty scummy again. Finally takes a stand that Guardian is pretty townish now that I've stopped turning heat on Guardian
16/17: Phox not scummy
18: attacks Coron a bit
21: Pressure starts turning up on Phox and Near, suddenly the case on phox has merit, votes near
25: Noncommittal about Near as he gets up to L-2 again, but makes some noises about how he's really scummy, could be pushing - argument against was "lack of links"
26: Asks why is Near scummy? He just talked about this in his last post, could be gauging the strength of the wagon?
27: Sudden attack on Guardian and Coron when Guardian attacks Dasquian and popular opinion swings against Guardian
28-30: mild argument with Coron about his FoS
32: talks about why Guardian's attack on Dasquian was bad, contributed to town read
(*)37: Some scumhunting on DBE
39: DBE is a bad lynch, despite never answering his questions
40: I'm not scum, confirm vote Near
(*)41: Why vote DBE, MBF?
42: Points out that MBF didn't really answer 41, but he still doesn't, and it doesn't come up again

I included up there a couple notes about stuff that I recall contributing to the town read I had on Joudas Day 1, and hence why I defended/didn't suspect him until later. Basically, he argued my position in the theory etc. debate with Guardian, which I feel was the correct town position, and did so better than I did, honestly. His attacks were all fairly well founded, which I liked at the time. [Reading back in hindsight, and knowing nearly certainly by elimination that he has to be scum, it was pretty easy to see how opportunistic and swingy his opinion was - I note specifically posts 11-12, 17-21, and 37-39 where near-complete reversals of opinion happen despite minimal content from the target, in each case conveniently aligning his opinion with a building wagon.] He seemed pretty thoughtful and conservative with his vote at the time. [Looking at it now, his suspicions bounced liberally toward convenient targets and he rarely voted to back it up.] I may also have been a bit swayed by his defensiveness/buddying with me - I really don't know for certain there. Largely suspected similar players to me, just less consistently - lowering suspicion of Near, raising on Phox a couple times when I didn't to match town opinion, and similar - I think I failed to notice the convenient timing of his changes of opinion because of his suspicions on VH, Near, and Coron at various times being pretty close to mine - at the time I took this as an indication that he was looking around with a good scumdar.

I've already stayed up way too late for tonight, so I'll work on stuff more tomorrow.

[Albert B. Rampage]

You forgot something.

Points to Pyro being scum with Mac:

Pyro agreed with Mac at least five times, talked to him directly once.
Mac defends Pyro four or five times

You're also basing your argument completely on comparisons with other people, not on the scumminess of statements in general. It's a flawed argument.

Pyro agreeing with Mac doesn't link them at all.

Mac defending Pyro becomes moot

after he attacked him

.

[mikeburnfire]

ABR is making a persuasive case. I'll have more time this weekend.

[Joudas]

Yeah, just like his last few cases were persuasive. Look where those got us.

[Claus]

The vote count has not changed.

Vote Count

Joudas 1 - ABR
Pyrodwarf 1 - Joudas

Not Voting

Macavenger, MBF, Pyrodwarf

With 5 people alive, it is 3 to lynch.

[mikeburnfire]

Just because he's been wrong a lot doesn't mean he's always wrong. He was, afterall, the first person to declare me to be innocent.

Firstly, the interactions between Pyro and Joudas, as well as the interactions between Yos and Mac, lead me to believe that Mac is scum. It's a real shame we need to kill him. He's been more pro-town than most of the townspeople. And he seems really sincere about everything. It's perhaps the best act I've seen in awhile, and even now I really feel in my gut that he's town, even though I have deduced that he is not.

Pyrodwarf has been stingy with his votes and only vote for people who are now confirmed or essentially confirmed town.
Several times he agreed with Macavenger, but never addressed him directly. He only mentioned Yosarian two times offhandedly as a possible scum, never addressing him directly. He talked to Joudas three times and ABR twice. This leads me to believe he is not scum with Joudas or ABR, and that he, Mac, and Yosarian are the scum.

Macavenger has not addressed Yosarian directly either. Mac addressed Pyro twice--once in regards to a page 2 action, pointless, and again when Pyro made a post about "like the cop for scum". He interrogated him lightly and never followed up. Getting closer to LyLo, he starts throwing him under the bus. All of a sudden he agrees with all the previous points against him. He rehashes the doc-fishing, Guardian-voting, MBF-Omgus-voting. He attempts to pursuade ABR to be more suspicious of Pyrodwarf than Yosarian. I guess he figured out that Pyro was a liability and that keeping the clever Yosarian alive increased the scum's chances of winning. The brief moments of sacrificing Pyro are short, though. When SL dies, Mac suggests that Pyrodwarf's lurking could be evidence of town. If you review his posts, Mac tries to avoid suspecting Pyro, but when he does he also tries to defend him at the same time

Of course, this was back when I considered Pyro to be entirely town, now let me pretend that I know Joudas is scum...

Joudas defends Mac five times. The fourth time is pretty bad, when he defends Mac from Near's sudden attempt to place my vote on him. Then later, for seemingly no reason, turns on him. Say's he's willing to vote Mac or Pyro. Later states he's willing to hammer Pyro or Mac. Again, states he's partial to Mac, Pyro, or SL. Again, Pyro, Mac, or Dasq. Mac and Pyro are always involved. Is this because he's trying to link them together, or because he's good at scumhunting?

Macavenger agrees on things with Joudas twice, then this little gem:

I think Joudas just jumped in and explained my problem with Guardian's posts better than I've been doing.

Oh, and then

Also, Joudas doesn't agree with Guardian. He comes to a similar conclusion as Guardian based on very different reasoning. Saying he agrees with Guardian could be suspicious twisting of what he's saying, in this context.

Yeah, that's scummy. Then he agrees with Joudas, strongly defends Joudas against Guardian

What was Joudas doing that caused you to not have a read on him, Guardian? My read was very strongly pro-town, so the result makes sense, but he really didn't seem hard to read to me.

When Guardian doesn't respond, he asks again. Defends Joudas's lurking and innocence

Yeah GF blah blah, my reading of theory suggests that making godfather accusations against someone cop-cleared should only be done for very good reasons. Joudas also has like, pretty much the best reason ever for being kinda inactive right now.

Says he has a town read on Joudas again. Near the end of the game, finally concedes that, due to process of elimination, Joudas is likely scum.

Jeez, I was so sure that Pyro was scum, but there is a lot of evidence that points to Joudas... I'm torn.

[mikeburnfire]

Post edit:

Of course, this was back when I considered Pyro to be entirely

town

scum.

Now that sentence makes sense.

[Macavenger]

He's been more pro-town than most of the townspeople. And he seems really sincere about everything. It's perhaps the best act I've seen in awhile, and even now I really feel in my gut that he's town, even though I have deduced that he is not.

I encourage you to listen to your gut here. It's correct.

Do you disagree with my analysis of Joudas' D1 play in any substantial way? Granted I came at it with the full advantages of hindsight and near-certainty via process of elimination that he has to be scum, but looking back at it I find it a fairly compelling case.

Is there anything that points to PyroDwarf not being scum with Joudas other than this thing about him feeling threatened? I don't find that a very compelling argument for them not being scum together, personally - if he was getting bussed when he didn't expect it, yeah, he might act threatened.

Your case on me basically seems to be that I didn't interact much with Pyrodwarf or Yosarian. This is reasonably accurate, but mainly just because my scumdar failed utterly at the beginning of this game. Don't worry, it's been duly broken for its failure and replaced. I did at least comment that I thought PyroDwarf and Yos were town Day 1 - sure, I was completely wrong, but that's more interaction than Joudas had with them.

[Claus]

1 single post in almost 48 hours? I'm considering advancing the deadline for this weekend, unless discussion picks up.

[mikeburnfire]

How about instead of doing that, you please

prod PyroDwarf

? We could really use his input.

/*
* Consider it done
* - Claus
*/

[Albert B. Rampage]

Replacement plz.

[Albert B. Rampage]

(For Pyro)

[Joudas]

Or we could just lynch Pyro. Problem solved.

[Albert B. Rampage]

So, Joudas, why do you think I'm scum with Pyro ?

[Joudas]

What? I don't. I think Pyro and Mac are scum. Mac by process of elimination, Pyro on the same basis I've been bitching about for a few days now. I think your play is scummy, but I think your alignment is town based on the Near replacement.