Mushroom Kingdom Mafia (Game over!)

[armlx]

Why would we be lynching cream? It seems like the rationale was "if cream is town, we can revive him." That's no reason to stop hunting scum.

Mainly because he attacked Gimbo early for more or less being the easy wagon.

Mod edit:
Visible votecount:
farside22 (3): TheSweatpantsNinja, iamausername, Gimbo
Cream147 (3): armlx, Phoebus, Alabaska J
TheSweatpantsNinja (2): sideney, Riceballtail
Xtoxm (2): DragonsofSummer, alvinz95
populartajo (1): farside22
Alabaska J (1): populartajo
somestrangeflea (1): Dead Rikimaru
armlx (1): killa seven
Gimbo (1): somestrangeflea

Not voting (9): Xtoxm, Surye, MafiaSSK, Pepsidude, Cream147, FaerieLord, Celebloki, mr. incrediball, Rogue Shenanigans

With 24 alive it takes 13 real votes to lynch.

[Dead Rikimaru]

Still here,
Catching up soon.

[iamausername]

You are an idiot if you are reading the whole thing I'm talking about the chances of finding scum using TSN idea.

...which you can't tell unless you know how many scum there are.

If I'm wrong, please explain how you reached your '1 in 5' figure without knowing this.

[armlx]

If I'm wrong, please explain how you reached your '1 in 5' figure without knowing this.

This is rarely a valid argument unless the estimate is way off the standard 1/4 estimate.

[farside22]

Your right on one point TSPN you voted against me when I said it was a bad idea.

We should wait until tomorrow? You mean so your scumbuddies can talk about it a little?

Unvote, vote farside.

Nothing is going to change from today to tomorrow, except we as a town will have less coins in our possession, and scum will have more.

I didn't lie, get over yourself.

[farside22]

You are an idiot if you are reading the whole thing I'm talking about the chances of finding scum using TSN idea.

...which you can't tell unless you know how many scum there are.

If I'm wrong, please explain how you reached your '1 in 5' figure without knowing this.

Did you read the f@#$ing post?! Do you not understand odds of finding people with the investigation? Seriously!

4 investigators 23 people left alive. 4 people looking into 4 other people. It is approx 1 out of 5 chance of finding scum with those odds. Where the (bleep) are you getting I know there are 5 scum from my post?

[iamausername]

4 investigators 23 people left alive. 4 people looking into 4 other people. It is approx 1 out of 5 chance of finding scum with those odds.

This is not an explanation. I want to know how you reached the conclusion that the odds are 1 in 5.

[iamausername]

Where the (bleep) are you getting I know there are 5 scum from my post?

Oh, five, is it? I thought the 1 in 5 figure just applied to the 20 that might be investigated, so I thought it was four, thanks for clearing that up.

[farside22]

4 investigators 23 people left alive. 4 people looking into 4 other people. It is approx 1 out of 5 chance of finding scum with those odds.

This is not an explanation. I want to know how you reached the conclusion that the odds are 1 in 5.

Math. DO THE MATH.
4 players we deem town worthy 4-23 players = 19 people left to investigate. 4 divided by 19 is approx 1 out of 5 chances of finding scum. I may have divided that by 24 players at the time and forgot to include the person to be lynched day one. 4-24=20 20 divided by 4 equals 5 yes.

[iamausername]

4 players we deem town worthy 4-23 players = 19 people left to investigate.

Yes, I get this part.

4 divided by 19 is approx 1 out of 5 chances of finding scum.

What are you talking about? How does dividing the number of investigators by the number of targets tell you the chances of finding scum?

[farside22]

4 players we deem town worthy 4-23 players = 19 people left to investigate.

Yes, I get this part.

4 divided by 19 is approx 1 out of 5 chances of finding scum.

What are you talking about? How does dividing the number of investigators by the number of targets tell you the chances of finding scum?

It's the odds of finding a scum. With 20 people to investigate you have a 1 out of 5 chance of finding scum with 4 players looking. Can anyone explain it to this guy. I know I'm making sense and obviously he never heard of odds before. Obviously not a betting man.

[iamausername]

It's the odds of finding a scum.

It's really not. The chances of finding scum depend on the number of scum in that 19 person group. I don't think that's a particularly outlandish concept.

Anyway, this 1/5 you've conjured up just appears to be complete nonsense and not a scum slip, so I'm going to

Unvote

.

[mr. incrediball]

farside, the odds of finding scum almost completely depend on how many scum there are.

anyway, so, so far:
at first, i thought rogue meant to be reffering to TSPN in the post where he unvoted, and got him confused with cream.

however, the fact that rogue didn't say that's what happened when everyone started getting suspicious of him leaves me... confused, to say the least.


p.s: everyone needs to get David Tennant avatars, just to annoy gimbo.

[Cream147]

I'm still totally an utterly shocked Cream is still alive and we aren't in night.

I am totally and utterly shocked that you are totally and utterly shocked about this. Seriously, no one has made a half-decent case against me yet. Apparently I attacked someone for being the easy wagon. I actually voted them because of reasons stated in somestrangeflea's post but didn't wish to go to the trouble of saying them all again.

[Gimbo]

^ Cream, I don't find anything scummy about you.

On the other hand, it seems like farside is getting defensive and using tautology to convince others. She still hasn't expalined the 1/5 probability yet....

[iamausername]

I'm going to

Unvote

.

Oh yeah, and

Vote: TheSweatpantsNinja

again.

[Cream147]

I've just been reading and rereading farside in this page. I'm very good at maths. It is a definite strong point of mine. You seem to be pulling numbers out of thin air though. You cannot tell the odds of finding scum without knowing the amount of scum there are.

Let's do some real maths. Armlx says that the standard is about 1/4 is scum (or at least I think that was what he was saying), so in a 24 player setup, that's 6. If we take 4 town players out of the equation, plus another player out because of the lynch (we'll say that player is town) then that's 19 players to choose from, 6 of who are scum. So, each investigation has slightly less than a 1/3 chance of hitting scum. With 4 investigations, that makes it likely that at least 1 scum will be found with 4 investigations.

I think, to figure out the exact probability, you would do 2/3 (the chance of investigation not hitting scum) to the power of 4 (the amount of investigations). This amounts do roughly 0.2. The probability of actually getting an investigation that hits the scum then, is 1-0.2=0.8. 80%. 4/5. Whatever. That's the chance of hitting scum.

Of course, that there makes a lot of assumptions like we won't give an investigation to a scum player and that there are 6 scum. If either of those assumptions is wrong, that changes the whole odds and so my calculations should be taken with a pinch of salt.

[TheSweatpantsNinja]

ALSO, CONFIRMED INNOCENTS ARE REALLY GOOD. Christ.

Farside: I didn't vote for you because you disagreed, I voted for you

because you said we should wait until tomorrow.

Which is a bad idea because the differences between today and tomorrow are:

A. Scum will have time to talk and figure out what their coin claims will be.

B. There is going to be more scum relative to town (because of nightkills)

C. Scum, via nightkills, will hold more coins than however many they have today.

Also, farside, this is what you said:

What is rubbing me wrong with TSN is that he

FOS's anyone

that disagrees with him. I showed the numbers on why I felt the odds of coin pooling was bad and he still wanted to go along with it. I think he is nuts, but not scummy.

See, that's what you said. I was quoting you. And its not true. So either you're being uncommonly inattentive, or you were lying. I'll accept either explanation.

[Alabaska J]

I'm still totally an utterly shocked Cream is still alive and we aren't in night.

I am totally and utterly shocked that you are totally and utterly shocked about this. Seriously, no one has made a half-decent case against me yet. Apparently I attacked someone for being the easy wagon. I actually voted them because of reasons stated in somestrangeflea's post but didn't wish to go to the trouble of saying them all again.

Yes there have been; your continued ignoring of them just makes you seem even scummier.

[Cream147]

I'm still totally an utterly shocked Cream is still alive and we aren't in night.

I am totally and utterly shocked that you are totally and utterly shocked about this. Seriously, no one has made a half-decent case against me yet. Apparently I attacked someone for being the easy wagon. I actually voted them because of reasons stated in somestrangeflea's post but didn't wish to go to the trouble of saying them all again.

Yes there have been; your continued ignoring of them just makes you seem even scummier.

Maybe I've missed them, because I haven't seen any half-decent cases on me anywhere. If you would like to point out one please.

[farside22]

ALSO, CONFIRMED INNOCENTS ARE REALLY GOOD. Christ.

Farside: I didn't vote for you because you disagreed, I voted for you

because you said we should wait until tomorrow.

Which is a bad idea because the differences between today and tomorrow are:

A. Scum will have time to talk and figure out what their coin claims will be.

B. There is going to be more scum relative to town (because of nightkills)

C. Scum, via nightkills, will hold more coins than however many they have today.

Also, farside, this is what you said:

What is rubbing me wrong with TSN is that he

FOS's anyone

that disagrees with him. I showed the numbers on why I felt the odds of coin pooling was bad and he still wanted to go along with it. I think he is nuts, but not scummy.

See, that's what you said. I was quoting you. And its not true. So either you're being uncommonly inattentive, or you were lying. I'll accept either explanation.

How about the fact that you didn't like when anyone disagreed with you. Why do I get called out for it? Just because I was the first to say bad idea.
24 people most large games would call for about 4 scums. I'm going based on what I see for most games this size.

[armlx]

Not really farside. 20 player theme games often have 6 scum, I've seen 24 player games with 7-8. All depends on groupings and types.

[farside22]

Not really farside. 20 player theme games often have 6 scum, I've seen 24 player games with 7-8. All depends on groupings and types.

Did scum win those games? I only ask because that seems like a high % compared to # of players.

[Rogue Shenanigans]

A game with these sort of mechanics would require a few scum to mess with coins.

I would say due to the mechanics and to the flavor we have two scum groups/individuals at least. Possibly one or two more.

[Alabaska J]

No Cream read the thread for once.


I thought we had a plan for today, but it seems to have dissolved.

Also, I feel bad for whoever will replace into this game (if we need one).

prod Gimbo