Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[Kagami]

Didn't you have to choose before alignments were determined?

[Something_Smart]

Nope, we got alignments first.

[Kagami]

Ok, order matters then.

[Something_Smart]

If I'd rolled scum I'd have pushed for double N1 gun. I'm surprised they didn't do that.

[Kagami]

Meh, it's reasonable to expect that strong players would have chosen N1 rose.

[Kagami]

I question the game's balance given scum get to pick post-alignment, but shrug.

[Cyanjet]

VOTE: LLD

Well...I'm lost. Was sure that Pine was it. LLD was a major proponent in his lynching so I guess I'll shift my vote to her. I still think that Herschel was suspicious, so I'll also say Kagami is scum.

[hitogoroshi]

I feel not a smidgen of regret for killing Pine. Assuming that a player who tries to force out a CC on the last day (when verifying is probably impossible anyway unless Cyan comes back in time) is just lying is a much better play than believing a scenario where a player has a confirmable PR, believes they will die halfway through the day, but instead of claiming their confirmable PR at a time when it would be possible to verify, they instead state that they'll be the lynch today and then fuck around for three days as the virtually certain wagon, while keeping their PR claim silent and actively complaining about the game being stalled, which would be a very stupid thing to believe. Forcing out a town PR claim has a very small cost to us, but the odds of a townie mishandling their PR claim and play in general as utterly comprehensively as Pine did here are way smaller still, especially given the super HIGH chance that Pine scum just tries anything to see what sticks, so I have played the odds correctly and will do the same thing next time. I'm not gonna body Pine anymore in the thread since he's not here now, but I am extraordinarily livid and I gotta get that out.

wait, let me body Pine oooooone more time - you know you fucked up real bad when you die as a claimed confirmable PR and the scum shoot two people on your wagon because that's the towniest place to be, lmao

Okay! I guess let me hito mode and see if we can pull this shit off anyway.

Of the Pine defenders, I think only Kagami comes off as looking solid town for it, because his defense was limited to just wanting the CC. If you're mafia and know the CC actually isn't coming, this is a stupid thing to go for. I was excited for a second that Kagami had claimed scum but they actually just thought you picked role before alignment so it doesn't work, boo.

implosion's Pine defense was too milquetoast and later transitory to really count, but I think his appeal to Pine to just participate + especially that him dying doesn't condemn LLD is a decent towntell. Well, or he's scum with LLD.

Cyan obviously turbo-skeeves me out having done so little at this point, but does Cyan kill the two people who think he's hard town no matter how much he avoids the thread? I mean maybe because NKA is a huge thing he obsesses about? But on the other hand, we have to recoup an advantage somewhere and I feel like just trusting the two flipped townies on Cyan might be the way to go, unless he makes some really gross post. I don't know I'm conflicted here, but I DO feel like just voting Cyan is 100% too easy and not rigorous enough.

As my above rant indicates I don't think killing Pine implicates LLD at all here; of course having said that, it removes the main thing that made me feel good about her being town (i.e Pine redflipping). So the bad news is that she's a null, but the good news is that we synced up pretty much entirely on gamestate, which means she's going through exactly the same examination/reversal as I am, so reading her shit today ought to help a lot.

I put off s_s meta to see if I would die first because I am busy, but I did not die so I will do that now.

P. EDIT - but Cyan is not making it easy for me, surely the #1 thing newbies are fearful of is not wanting to throw the game right away? Not that I think implo/kagami is a particularly likely scum team, and not that I have any idea how likely implo/hito or kagami/hito looks to outsiders, but if it's one of those three scum teams Cyan's vote could just stone cold end the game here. You really comfortable doing that very top of lylo day homie?

[hitogoroshi]

okay here's me looking at s_s's games. I mostly focused on objective stuff with votes and stuff just to get a sense so I wouldn't have to deep dive. However, I am actually a ludicrous speed reader (one of my three genuine talents) so I was able to kind of look for super hard defense. In this case, because of the superlative degree he went for Pine here, I figured I'd look for a similar thing - clusters of posts that were all defending one person. I ended up only finding three, two of which seemed to have role stuff involved, and none from s_s scum which is what I was hoping to find. So that was mostly a swing and a miss, except that I disagree with the statement that s_s frequently defends players to the degree he did here. I did find some choice posts to highlight by skimming the actual threads so it was worth doing.

Legend:
O = on wagon
D = different wagon
N = not voting
L = lynched
X = No lynch occured

and then
T = wagon target flipped townie
S = wagon target flipped scum

mini normal 2073: ~ramblings~
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=79563

S_S, townie fruit vendor, killed N2
OT, DT
Votes: IIIII I
posts on end/death: 175
post/vote ratio: 29
game posts on end/death: 2459
Noticeable hard-defense: succint, but that looked like role shenanigans.

large normal 220: jazz mafia
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=79602

S_S, vanilla towne, replaced in N1 and lived to endgame
not present D1, NS, NS, DS (techcnially LUV conceded instead of being voted, but this is closest analogy because s_s wouldn't have lynched him)
Votes: I
posts on end/death: 98
post/vote ratio: 98 (didn't need my calculator for that one!)
game posts on end/death: 5227
Noticeable hard-defense: LUV on claim stuff, but I don't think anyone on play?

Undertale Mafia
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=79367

s_s was tEMMIE (town PR), lynched D2
DT, LT
Votes: III
posts on end/death: 299
post/vote ratio: 100
game posts on end/death: 4623
Noticeable hard-defense: Papyrus

Mini 2072: Timeshift Mafia
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=79507

s_s was mafia goon, won in endgame
NT, NT, NT, NT
Votes: none
post/vote ratio: undefined
posts on end/death: 56
game posts on end/death: 1137
Noticeable hard-defense: none
Found this weird:

I think I, for one, naked vote more as town than as scum.

because like, does s_s naked vote ever? but not really sure if this is an alignment hint just want to save it for later reflection

Micro 864: the newsroom
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=79327

Something_Smart, Mafia Publicist, lynched Day 3
NS, OT LS
Votes: IIIII I
posts on end/death: 197
post/vote ratio: 33
game posts on end/death: 1966
noticeable hard-defense: none
this scum game is much different than this current game, which is not the most helpful because his previous scumgame is similar to this one. But there is at least one variety of s_s I can read like a book which presumably should bump my prior a little

skipping AMGWPPTTIOTSDED cause it looks like some weird shit
also skipping marathons obv

mini normal 2067: Musicals
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=79212

Something_Smart - Town Macho Vigilante - Killed Night 1
DT
Votes: I(Selfvote in RVS)II
posts on end/death: 103
post/vote ratio: 52 without the selfvote, 34
game posts on end/death: 1335
noticeable hard-defense: none

Tone is not exactly right though, it's more like how meaningful and useful my content is. I have a hard time faking that as scum.

lets not get ahead of ourselves there buddy

Mini normal 2058 actually looks like it was a pretty fucko setup so I'm gonna ignore this one too

open 743: the crown of misery
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=78009

Something_Smart - undead warlock, won in endgame
OT, X, OT, OT
Votes: IIIIIII
posts on end/death: 142
post/vote ratio: 20
game posts on end/death: 2362
noticeable hard-defense: none

"Floating by" is pretty much my default mode though... it's not as if I ever say as town "this is where I'm going to do something town-motivated, and then I'll be townread for it."

you should start doing this it works super well and it fucking rules

skippping room odds because it's pretty unrelated to regular mafia
ditto for merchants daughter. fakegod I appreciate you making weird ass shit as a player but I ain't reading that shit as a dude doing meta

open 747: our love must remain hidden
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=78360

Something_Smart, town lover, won in endgame
DS
Votes: I
posts on end/death: 19
post/vote ratio: 19
game posts on end/death: 237
noticeable hard-defense: none
hey implo good job using seniority of the last vote as plurarily tiebreaker, that is the correct one

Joan, there's a middle ground between doing nothing but playing mafia all day and not even bothering to honor the commitment you signed up for. If you're really so busy you can't spare a few minutes a couple times a day, you shouldn't be playing. It's insulting to the rest of us who wanted a real game.

s_s where has this energy been w/r/t the lurker crew this game

excalibur
viewtopic.php?f=56&t=77881
I am a little dicey on counting this or not but it looks like for all of the gladidate weirdness it's still fundamentally people putting votes on other people, so w/e lets read it

Something_Smart, who was Knight Errant, and aligned with Town, was killed in Night 1.
NT (but maybe not voting makes more sense with the gladiate thing, idk I'm not reading THAT in depth)
Votes: none (but again it looks like voting was weird here)
posts on end/death: 61
post/vote ratio: undefined
game posts on end/death: 1431
noticeable hard-defense: none

Being wrong helps people get a BETTER read on me?

I've almost never seen that.

I've been mislynched many times for being wrong.

Once I stopped being more confident than I had any right to be, my rate of being mislynched plummeted.

okay I think we found the problem. being wrong can absolutely help people get a better read on you.
maybe in those earlier games you got mislynched for baseless and opaque wrongness or something?
but there are lots of ways to reveal your alignment that are independent of the correctness of your reads

anyway I was kind of hoping to find a single time s_s was town and was on a mafia wagon to see what him pushing looks like, but it hasn't happened and I've had my fill of this shit for today. maybe later
overall I think this biases me towards s_s is being town because his scum game seems to be a little more proactive and he bites back a fair bit more. but it does also seem pretty out of character for s_s town to lead day with a vote like he did here so idk man talk to me some about that

[hitogoroshi]

holy shit lmao I checked the timestamps and I read all of that shit in two hours ten minutes. I must be even angrier than I thought

[implosion]

Kinda don't think it's hito anymore. I need to do some deeper diving and I don't really have energy/time for that until the weekend.

I guess hito's wallpost two posts up is a sensible thing to do as scum here, particularly if he's scum with LLD, but idk I feel like scum him would probably end with the conclusion that S_S is scum because he's kind of calling everyone town right now? Not really sure what the deal with that is.

I'm probably on board with LLD today partially because of the way she plays around the pine stuff at the end of the day, along with other towntells being better and poe and etc. I don't think I'm going to flip on cyanjet ever, need to rethink everyone else. I'd call LLD+Kagami right now if I had to but it is also entirely possible that second-guessing myself on hito is really stupid. Kagami's "LLD/hito is the team, i don't care about order" after LLD gets snap voted would make a lot of sense if it is LLD+Kagami.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I need a night to myself. People voting me in MyLo like this are idiots and the worst part is one of you at minimum is town which is awful because Kagami is absolutely scum.

All I'll say to your statement Implo and Hito is think about it like this.

I have 2 votes on me.

We all think Kagami probably is scum here (Hito is wavering but honestly Hito, what pairings exist if Kagami is town? Do both scum enter on me today like that? Implo+You has already hammered and won if it's the case.... so you're relly looking at Implo+X Kagami+X or LLD+Y teams (Y subset of all, X subset of players on the LLD wagon).

And given Implo scum is lowered by his constant denial of the Pine wagon in my mind, because it'd be easy to climb aboard I'm taking the heat regardless.

That just leaves Kagami.

So my message to the two of you tonight is this. If I'm scum with Kagami, help me bus her. If I'm town, Kagami is always scum here from both of your perspectives.

Find me a reasonable functional world where lynching Kagami isn't the right move today and I'll debate you tomorrow, happily, but Kagami is always scum and it's one of Cyan or S_S who is her partner.

And if you wanna think I'm her partner bussing her, feel free to solve for that tomorrow. Every day I live is a new chance to reevaluate me.

Night folks.

[hitogoroshi]

I guess hito's wallpost two posts up is a sensible thing to do as scum here, particularly if he's scum with LLD, but idk I feel like scum him would probably end with the conclusion that S_S is scum because he's kind of calling everyone town right now? Not really sure what the deal with that is.

less "everyone is town" and more that I think we have decent acid tests for LLD/Cyan and S_S could swing a lot depending on meta. then I did the meta and feel...I guess not *great* on S_S, but better.

not a fan of the LLD post. not for my usual reason that it assumes I'm town - we have entered Real Hito Hours and LLD knows it - but the weird instant PoE based on the assumption that "I don't believe both players who voted me are mafia together, so lets ignore sorting either of them and find the mafia player who isn't voting for me". I've deleted a couple of lines because it's hard to articulate exactly WHY I don't like, but I think it's because here on the home stretch LLD's first post set up a rationale such that you can vote Kagami without ever having a reason to suspect/talk to Kagami?

w/e though let's talk. I think that "implo scum is lowered by his constant denial of the Pine wagon" is a weird credit to give to implo, since he basically reversed it by the end, s_s defended WAY harder, and Kagami denied it in a less scum-indicative way (saying that on reads it looked unlikely, but he wanted to stall to check for cc's - even though we were 1 day out with a v/la player so it was quite likely we would never get town to agree that real gun counterclaims, and then get everyone to post. And if Pine doesn't die there, Kagami is super in danger as an alternative.) I think implo's probably town but I'm not grokking why you clear him from your pov.

Oh, one other thing and this is for everyone: what did you think about pops putting Pine to L-1 without a claim? I have a reason for asking which I will reveal later

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I guess hito's wallpost two posts up is a sensible thing to do as scum here, particularly if he's scum with LLD, but idk I feel like scum him would probably end with the conclusion that S_S is scum because he's kind of calling everyone town right now? Not really sure what the deal with that is.

less "everyone is town" and more that I think we have decent acid tests for LLD/Cyan and S_S could swing a lot depending on meta. then I did the meta and feel...I guess not *great* on S_S, but better.

not a fan of the LLD post. not for my usual reason that it assumes I'm town - we have entered Real Hito Hours and LLD knows it - but the weird instant PoE based on the assumption that "I don't believe both players who voted me are mafia together, so lets ignore sorting either of them and find the mafia player who isn't voting for me". I've deleted a couple of lines because it's hard to articulate exactly WHY I don't like, but I think it's because here on the home stretch LLD's first post set up a rationale such that you can vote Kagami without ever having a reason to suspect/talk to Kagami?

w/e though let's talk. I think that "implo scum is lowered by his constant denial of the Pine wagon" is a weird credit to give to implo, since he basically reversed it by the end, s_s defended WAY harder, and Kagami denied it in a less scum-indicative way (saying that on reads it looked unlikely, but he wanted to stall to check for cc's - even though we were 1 day out with a v/la player so it was quite likely we would never get town to agree that real gun counterclaims, and then get everyone to post. And if Pine doesn't die there, Kagami is super in danger as an alternative.) I think implo's probably town but I'm not grokking why you clear him from your pov.

Oh, one other thing and this is for everyone: what did you think about pops putting Pine to L-1 without a claim? I have a reason for asking which I will reveal later

I swore I wouldn't do this tonight but here we go.

What do you want me to do, pretend that Kagami isn't scum?

I'm in a unique position where there have been 2 votes on me and most players who are off my wagon have been online in the same time frame that a coordinated hammer would ahve been possible. Which means from my perspective that at most one of you kagami and Implo is scum.

You're not scum. I'm not that wrong. I re-evaluated overnight and I'm convinced you don't fake agreeing with me that way as scum how you handled it.

Implo is town for reasons mentioned. He didn't take the Pine bait he could have easily done, especially when Pine claimed.

So either BOTH S_S and Cyan are scum (but I just can't believe that. Both entering on me like that together is really really risky when I die today a good percent of the time without that move anyway) or One of them is scum WITH Kagami.

So it's Kagami. It always has to be Kagami from my PoV. I'm not trying to set up a simple PoE, I'm forced into it based on what I know and what has been voted. I know it's different for you, which is why I'm inviting you to talk to me, but don't act like it's so strange that I've suddenly come around to a solid opinion and I'm pushing it. You know how I play, once I'm sold it's not about how extra super special right I can be, it's about making sure townies I know are townie get on the fucking boat and ride with me.

[hitogoroshi]

okay I am going to bed the instant I hit send on this post, so don't stay up and respond on my account. but - lemme put it this way. I've had my share of LLD lylos and I know that LLD-scum likes to immediately winnow the pool so they can go off on one person and start a charm offensive for everyone else. but it is also a fair point that from LLD-town's point of view, maybe you do think the voting and the town reads are so strong that you're instantly in the same boat LLD-scum would happen to be here. what I will say is that, even if from your POV Kagami is lockscum, I want to see you trying to sort s_s vs cyan as buddies. You can assume Kagami has already redflipped in your analysis if you want. because watching you do actual sorting is the best way for me to read you, and even if it seems like wasted effort to you because of the days events making it such that you always lynch Kagami over either of them, it gives me something to read where I suspect LLD-scum might write something different than LLD-town

[Kagami]

Implosion, things are solid to the point that getting bogged down in fluffy stuff is about the only path to a loss here.

As more and more people posted without CCing Pine, LLD and hito became more, not less, interested in seeing the lynch go through.

At the time of Pine's hammer, every single player except cyanjet had posted and not CCed, so there was no informational loss to waiting anyway. If Cyanjet had continued to be absent, we would ask for him to be replaced and the Day would be extended; FG would have likely extended the day due to my replace-in anyway if it had been requested. There is also no world where Pine somehow lasts more than an hour or two if he gets CCed.

There's are times when you should just stick to the fundamentals of mafia: people who are aiming to lynch someone who is likely to become confirmed town are a lot more likely to be scum than those trying to resist it. Everyone here, except maybe cyan, has played enough mafia games on this site to know that "mishandled" claims and clumsy posts happen pretty often and are not some kind of magic bullet that overrides a mod-provided innocent.

Also, while less concrete than the above, I don't see town-LLD choosing Rose.

[hitogoroshi]

kagami answer my question pls. oh but I'm going to change it slightly because I kinda phrased it wrong

Oh, one other thing and this is for everyone: what did you think about pops putting Pine to L-1 without any reason given and without calling the L-1? I have a reason for asking which I will reveal later

[Something_Smart]

I didn't think anything of it before the flip. I only checked in briefly, saw the claim, and posted that I wasn't CCing; I don't think I even noticed the vote before night.

[Kagami]

I hadn't really thought much of it at the time as I was about to be out for the night, but I can recognize the possible interpretation that it was some kind of stupid sort of CC.

If I had a very low opinion of your town plan, that might be a relevant defense, but it really isn't. A competent player does not lynch confirmed town out of some sense of impatience or heaven knows what else and then express pride over having done so.

[Kagami]

your town play*

and directed at hito.

[hitogoroshi]

I hadn't really thought much of it at the time as I was about to be out for the night, but I can recognize the possible interpretation that it was some kind of stupid sort of CC.

I mean, that's part of it, although it's not as much just "it's a soft cc" as a "I agree it's not worth forcing out the cc" - I figured pops would do that as both gun and N2 rose and there was value in leaving it vague.

More of what I'm getting at is that apparently no townie ever kills Pine without waiting for cc there, period, but also when you saw pops put him on L-1 post claim without a word that didn't give you much to think about? Didn't pops essentially claim scum there from your POV?

[Kagami]

No, he essentially claimed stupid.

Ceph also had the opportunity to unvote, and I'm quite disappointed he didn't.

[Kagami]

Pop's L-1 did not prompt you to hammer, it was S_S's "I'm not CCing"

[Kagami]

And I'd wager a lot of *angry cat noises* in the PT

[Kagami]

Alright, I can see why this game feels so stall-y.

The lynch today is LLD, and that's not even a matter of opinion or something. There's necessarily scum in {LLD, s_s, and cyan}, so there's no reason s_s or cyan would move their vote unless they suddenly decide the other is scum.

S_s and cyan are probably both town, and I'm ok with losing if they are.

I don't mind hashing out the rest tomorrow if there's going to be a bit more energy following the scumflip. The only thing that isn't really supporting hito-scum here is that implosion makes a lot more sense as a NK than either pops or ceph.