Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[Kagami]

He thinks both, the former necessarily if he's not a complete idiot. The latter is a direction where I understand why he thinks that, but it is very, very bad to talk about, hence why I've chosen to pretend it doesn't exist.

[Kagami]

o hi.

[Kagami]

Ank, it's already pretty silly to think that kagami-scum would be antagonizing Hito-town here especially given I could have leveraged the townread in this utterly repulsive post, but to do so as a team with S_S makes absolutely no sense.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Ank, it's already pretty silly to think that kagami-scum would be antagonizing Hito-town here especially given I could have leveraged the townread in this utterly repulsive post, but to do so as a team with S_S makes absolutely no sense.

That's ridiculous, I think Hito is more likely to scum read you if you call him town entering today instead of scum. You say things like this and phrase them as the truth, but they're completely subjective, and any move you make like this, you could have made to make this exact post.

Like, does anyone think Kagami doesn't have this day already completely planned out?

Further and finally, Hito and Implo.

Kagami blames me and Hito for Pine's lynch, but she was present that day and the amount of resistance she put up was enough to say she resisted but exactly sufficient to ensure no one would actually unvote. She yelled at two players (hito and I) who were mostly committed to voting and never tried to appeal to anyone else on the wagon.

Why would she do that if Pine was town? Why not appeal for an unvote?

Because she wanted that lynch to happen, and she had a plan of attack.

At this point Hito, Implo, if you think I'm scum I can't help it anymore. Kagami is scum, I have a hard time with the other two. I think Cyan/Ank is more likely to be scum but S_S completely blanking my arguments to him, not really listening or considering is worrying because it feels like he just wants the result to occur and wants to keep his vote there.

I wonder if he was instructed to just stonewall me to try and have one of you end up lynching me because there's no other option.

Vote: Kagami

Hito, Implo.... which ever one of S_S/Cyan is actually town: We need all of you to vote correctly today. Town cannot be divided even by one vote. Please, please see the light about Kagami's posts and actions. Kagami's posts keep telling lies, keep pushing agendas in secret ways, and her motivations and actions continue to push scum intent from even YESTERDAY. She is scum. Vote her.

[Blake Belladonna]

Consider my vote on Kagami.

I won't vote yet primarily because I still want to see what Implosion and Hitogoroshi have to say first regarding my earlier question towards them, but I have seen about enough myself to believe that Kagami is the scum in this exchange.

[Blake Belladonna]

Ank, it's already pretty silly to think that kagami-scum would be antagonizing Hito-town here especially given I could have leveraged the townread in this utterly repulsive post, but to do so as a team with S_S makes absolutely no sense.

Regarding this, I can't comment on the validity or lack of myself since I have never played with hitogoroshi before that I am aware of, nor have played with you in the past few years, nor have any idea how your in-game dynamic plays out.

What I do see, however, is that you specifically have the highest probability of being scum based on my prediction of what scum would be looking to do today, or even what I would expect any scumteam to be able to do in a playerlist this high enough caliber.

[implosion]

Alright. I had been looking at the game under the assumption that LLD was scum, and then had a thought that Kagami+hito might actually make sense, then realized that it's impossible because of hammer shenanigans, but then remembered that it isn't actually impossible because scum aren't necessarily going to quickhammer in this setup. And that kind of ruins a lot of the way that I'd been thinking about possible teams. So I'll just lay thoughts out there.

The thought that I had been referring to not wanting to mention is that specifically S_S + LLD is almost nonsensical as a team based on S_S's play. This is of course a useless thing to think about if we lynch scum that isn't one of them today, but is useful if LLD does flip scum. I think there are a number of S_S->LLD posts in favor of this conclusion (e.g. listing her as his first townread early on) but the single biggest point in favor of it is this:

Yeah, after going back and looking, she got pretty quiet after 74, but she wasn't really townread at that time. A few people listed her as somewhat trusted but that doesn't seem to be a situation where you'd strategically drop out and let them forget about that weak read.

Also of note is that two of the newbies, now cyanjet and Haschel, tried to vote LLD in their first post. So as much as I hate premature associatives, I doubt they jump on that bandwagon if they're partnered with her. (But I could see a scum newbie jumping on town, especially the second one to do so, Agoodcivilian who is now Haschel.)

No way in hell does scum point out multiple people that they're going to eliminate as possible partners with their scumbuddy in a 2:9 setup. Obviously, the argument itself is not ironclad by any means, but it's an argument that I really highly doubt scum go out of their way to make.

I don't think any 2/3 of Kagami/LLD/hito is especially unlikely or impossible. I don't see Kagami or LLD's mutual interactions as necessarily precluding a bus (in particular I feel like MS is in a fairly bus-heavy meta right now though I might be biased because the last scumgame i played was mlp). If it's Kagami + hito, I can very much see hito playing the role of not wanting to hammer in this setup, especially after I said I would, so as to still be in it after a possible missed kill. However, I really think both scum are in that three.

The more I look at cyanjet combined with the fact that ceph died makes me really just disinterested in considering the slot as scum. Ceph had it as hardcore locktown. The "holy shit i survived" thing isn't something new scum fakes. That slot is basically a completely free read.

S_S, is my more controversial (apparently) strong townread. I really don't think he's scum with LLD; if he's scum and LLD is town, then opening up the day with an instant vote on LLD seems very far outside of the wheelhouse for what I'd expect his scum play to be; if his play revolves around laying low for most of the game, and it's gotten him this far, I really don't see a reason for scum S_S to open up the day with a vote, even after the semi-shitshow of yesterday's end. The way he's reacted to things in general hasn't felt to me like scum trying to lay low; it's felt like town trying to lay low or not wanting to commit to things. I want to hear from ank why s_s+kagami is the "simplest" answer, if it's something other than a townread on LLD + the fact that she wasn't quickhammered.

I haven't really put a ton of effort into directly trying to read Kagami's posting but I do see the argument over their rhetorical style. This and thinking more about LLD's posting today are my priorities. I'm kind of ironclad in cyanjetslot-town and S_S+LLD not being the scumteam and I can be swayed on S_S but I really want to trust myself on him.

The possibilities of Kagami + LLD and Kagami + hito might both just be paranoia but eh. Kagami's slowness to join the LLD wagon makes sense in both of those worlds. The way hito has been acting today would be congruent with how I imagine scum-him would play today given that scum might be afraid of quickhammering. Specifically I imagine hito is the kind of scum player to try to milk every bit of win probability out of a given situation.

I'm also curious what S_S thinks of the possibility of scum being scared to hammer given his implying he doesn't think it's likely in 795 but acknowledging that it's a possibility in 798.

[Something_Smart]

Well, yeah, honestly that sums it up. Obviously it's possible, but I wouldn't feel bad losing to a team that slowrolled a hammer (I would just be irritated they dragged it out), so it's probably better to discount it as a possibility completely.

[hitogoroshi]

I don't have much time for this tonight and I won't tomorrow but let me get out some stuff because from my POV the game gets basically solved if I solve blake so I wanna see blake's thoughts on my thoughts.

mechanics chat wise, I agree with LLD in that my rationale was basically "I need rose because I don't trust the average scummer nor FakeGod's gaggle of friends to not take gun" (oh and speaking of fakegod's friends and weird picks, shout out to poor Ceph repping in to that night 5 rose), and it didn't really get more complicated than that for me. As mafia I would have taken gun though because I do not fear vig at all. So I find the reverse prior argument unconvincing, but after Kagami sounded it out it at least seems more sincere. I think you're slightly overestimating gun and underestimating rose only because there's a massive utility step-down night-to-night and so the roses match on the gun nights more often than random, but I agree with the general thesis that I probably would have 50/50'd gun vs. rose if the playerlist at the start looked like it did end of D1.

I also put 0% faith in the argument that scum ever slow-roll hammer. It's not THAT hard to do a halfway deniable hammer that isn't instant scum claim if you fail, and if scum hit a rose with a N1/N2 gun, they can just shoot that player to tonight for the free win. Unless it was a N1 bounce killed N2, but I think you don't kill the N1 bounce N2 for exactly that reason.

So I am fine saying that if implosion is scum, the only possible partner is LLD. And uhh, tbh that team looks a lot more possible after 806. I still feel weird at the idea that their catty digs would be scum/scum, but I REALLY dislike the flow of "I'm totally gonna hammer LLD with Kagami saying it's hito tomorrow, hito convince me off it" -> absconding for a while -> "Hey, but it could be Kagami! OR LLD! OR LLD, and then after an LLD redflip we still keep Kagami on the table (???)". Like yes, bussing is possible. Cyans vote on LLD could maaaybe be a bus because it's a weaksauce case they never came back to push. Kagami's push is essentially never a bus, because what is the gee-darn point. Why on earth would Kagami start the day with a line of logic that both buses their partner, AND antagonizes a random townie in the process? At the very least Kagami could have said "it impugns both LLD and hito, but hito hammered so he's worse" and started by trying to rally on me.

Kagami is in a place where there's a lot of individual things that seem strange - assigning ~0 probability to the chance that LLD town gun hit a N1 rose, weird fixation that Pine wagon is autoscum when we just had two green flips out of Pine wagoners + the NKA angle that these are the kills you make you push that story. And 802 is silly for the same reason because Kagami-scum HAS to antagonize hito-town here when he's making that argument; if he wanted to antagonize LLD and not hito he would need to go after LLD for something else. The problem is like...unless blake switching to threatening Kagami is a 300IQ bait to make me discount the team, Kagami is officially Out Of Partners. It ain't LLD, it ain't implo, and I'm still gonna say that 436 is never buddies; that sort of objective tell seems like the kind of thing s_s puts a huge amount of stock in and I don't see s_s unearthing it on a partner to not even do anything with.

s_s...I don't know, don't think it's a bus on LLD, not with Kagami, not with implo, but could very much be with blake. Just snuck in a townread on Cyan and otherwise left him alone. And I don't think the voting together is as big of a clear as others, because it makes plenty of scum sense for s_s to go first with an unjustified blank vote and then say "I'll vote Kagami instead if you make that the wagon that goes off instead! And if it helps, I will express zero reason to have a preference between the two", and then Cyanjet's vote would have just been doing the PT plan in their first post because Cyan was just sort of doing things. The more compelling argument on cyan town is how much you want to go down the WIFOM rabbit hole of zero level "Cyan never kills their two staunchest supporters in the same night" vs first level "Cyanjet obsesses about night kills and literally just learned that we're doing some amount of NKA the day before" vs second level...etc. Oh, another thing is that reading this:

Ank! \o/

Hopefully you can help me quell what doubts I have about your slot. I'm giving you permission to Amished here; read your predecessor's last post and tell me that isn't cringe-worthy.

makes it retroactively unnerving that S_S was cool just stone chilling on the wagon with Cyan

so I think from my point of Kagami is more or less cleared barring residual paranoia on blake gambiting here. and I'm weighing between LLD/implo and s_s/blake, with maybe an outside chance of lld/blake. With LLD/implo feeling more likely after implos last post, but still feeling quite uneasy about how little people have considered s_s/blake. It feels bad because LLD is my friend in real life and Kagami has been yelling at me all day but I dunno blake was the last sensible partner and I just don't see why they'd take such a risk in such a winnable situation.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Why can't it be Kagami S_S Hito?

And why can't Ank enter and go onto Kagami when he sees the game has stalled?

I dunno why you're just discounting these worlds when you pushed hard for me to see S_S+Ank.

It's super frustrating, it's basically means you're gonna compromise lynch me and town will lose and I'm fucking kind of exhausted.

[Blake Belladonna]

I will respond later today, that's too much of an overload this early in the morning.

[Something_Smart]

Unless it was a N1 bounce killed N2, but I think you don't kill the N1 bounce N2 for exactly that reason.

I mean, or if it was LLD hit N1...

[Kagami]

Well, this changes things to the world where the NKs fit more nicely.

I would like to discuss the "I am awesome and lynching pine was an awesomely correct thing that I did" post after the game, hito.

[Kagami]

It's kind of hard to imagine s_s-scum makes an explicit non-CC in 703, especially with LLD as his partner.

[Kagami]

Even with cyan/ank, it's a statement that's reasonably likely to move toward saving Pine from a completely town-driven and wildly pro-scum mislynch, which he was under absolutely no obligation to make.

[Something_Smart]

...Really?

My scumgame isn't

that

shitty.

[Something_Smart]

Like I play mechanically as either alignment. I already decided in the early game setup discussion that the proper play was for the gun to CC and to never lynch a gun claim without a CC. As scum I'd stick by that even if it means a planned mislynch slipping away.

I was astounded to see Pine hammered there. If I were scum with LLD, I would never have expected a townie to hammer Pine, and so I wouldn't have reacted any differently.

[Kagami]

I don't understand that statement. I'm saying I don't think there are any scumfigurations including you.

It looks like Hito is town given 808, since LLD-Hito had pretty much won the game after ank's entrance, and 803 completely throws that out the window.

[Kagami]

808, not 803

[Something_Smart]

I'm saying that your argument in 813 and 814 is exceedingly weak, and it's completely invalid although its conclusion happens to be correct in this case.

[Kagami]

O, I see what you're saying.

It seems like pretty silly scumplay to block such a lovely mislynch, when all you'd have to do is not post at all, but ok.

Still don't think it's an s_s configuration. Ank's switch from LLD to me makes little sense in S_S+Ankworld as well.

[Kagami]

Playing well as scum isn't about playing as your town self unless you hope to win by chance alone. It's about pushing the game in a pro-scum direction as much as possible without the town attributing the pushes to your alignment.

If you would non-CC as scum, that's fine (and frankly, I don't believe you), but even not posting at all to maximize the odds the pine wagon gets to a lynch is absolutely better scumplay than hoping the non-CC is ignored and that someone down the line attributes it to your alignment.

[Something_Smart]

Pocketing is one of my most valuable scum tactics. If I did manage to stop the Pine mislynch there as scum, then he would probably never let me get lynched. I've only ever endgamed a few times (my scumgame is not very strong) but usually when I have it's because I pocketed someone and they returned the favor.

But to be honest, I don't even really see how not CC'ing does anything to prevent the lynch. If someone's gonna hammer without a CC they're gonna do that anyway-- I really don't think hito hammered because he thought cyanjet was the gun.

[Kagami]

I don't think so either, I think he was just very, very sure of himself and didn't really think about how valueless hiding the "real" gun was until later.

Obviously it didn't prevent the lynch, but it certainly furthered the possibility that everyone takes a step back and things get sorted out. Pine becomes confirmed town if you had saved him, so I don't think the pocket would work out as you might hope.

Anyway, I see what your saying, though I think it's kind of a silly argument. I was actually aiming this all at Hito in any case, as I think we're now both going in the correct direction.

[Blake Belladonna]

Am I the only one that can't see that interaction as TvT no matter how hard I try?