Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[Blake Belladonna]

It feels really off to me how Something_Smart seems to be going nowhere in this exchange, and the way Kagami ended it makes the whole thing feel staged.

[Kagami]

You live in a dream world, ank.

[Blake Belladonna]

I am quite grounded in reality, thank you.

[Something_Smart]

Haven't you met me, Ank? Going nowhere is kind of my thing.

I'm mostly just creating that interaction to look at later. The reason I brought it up was the possibility of 813 being a clumsy pocket attempt, and I wanted to see how they explained it. But there would have been no point in confronting Kagami directly about that, as they'd obviously just insist it was genuine.

[Blake Belladonna]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.

We shall see.

[Kagami]

Unfortunately, we need unanimity, ank, so now is the time to start seeing.

[Kagami]

Can we go through what you don't like about me here, and what you do like about LLD?

[Blake Belladonna]

It's a gamestate read, Kagami.

I've actually done fairly little to read LLD directly, but the way the game has progressed to this point is incongruent with LLD being scum. It is far more congruent with you being scum, especially with the posturing you've been doing on the last page. It gives me the impression that you're looking to shift your strategy to a more neutral stance, which doesn't fit with your previous actions nor what the game looks like FYPOV.

The primary thing I'm curious about is what that exchange itself signifies. I can see it being theater and pure posturing, both of which imply different partners.

[Kagami]

What is the "posturing" I've done on the last page? What have I done that does not fit the game from my point of view? What have I done that is congruent with my being scum?

[Kagami]

I was hoping you'd reply soonish, as my window of being able to respond is closing, but I would also appreciate it if you could explain that last sentence.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Oh god that would be a trip.

What if I was shot night 1 and Kagami knows that and that's why she wanted to deflect from the option of a N1 Gun.

YO HITO

WHY IS THIS PERSON TOWN AGAIN

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 3.2

Lady Lambdadelta [2] - Something_Smart, Kagami
Kagami [1] - Lady Lambdadelta

Not Voting [3]

- hitogoroshi, implosion, Blake Belladonna

With 6 alive it takes 4 votes to be chosen.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2019-07-05 21:00:00)

[Blake Belladonna]

What is the "posturing" I've done on the last page? What have I done that does not fit the game from my point of view? What have I done that is congruent with my being scum?

Okay, here's ultimately what I'm thinking regarding this game.

First, I decided that I'm not going to read back through days one and two in their entirety. I firmly believe that the content there is far more likely to be raw noise over relevant content, especially since I simultaneously believe that what's going on today is very likely going to be enough to pick out what exactly scum are looking to do with this endgame.

Second, I firmly believe that all five of you are competent enough at mafia to at least have an idea for how to end the game in a win as scum in this game, even against the other three players (not counting my own slot, Cyan) still alive. This is slightly harder to just accept for any other slot since my predecessor was clearly newer at the game, but FMPOV any list of two players in this endgame is more than capable enough of having a set plan for how to handle this MyLo, especially since it's very obvious just by the setup that the night two kills were both scum kills. It's simply ridiculous to think that the scumteam are playing in a way that isn't likely to give them a win. This already gives a level of focus to the game that allows how people are playing the endgame to be readable.

I find it very hard to believe that an LLD+(S_S/Kagami) team is possible since then this immediate LLD piledrive wagon doesn't make any sense as a play in MyLo.
Implosion/Hitogoroshi is not a team because just hammering LLD when she was at L-1 is a simple enough endgame to win even in the worst case scenario, and I fully believe that they would've taken that when given the opportunity.

This by necessity means that either both Something_Smart and Kagami is scum, or the scumteam is {LLD/S_S/Kagami} + {Implosion/hitogoroshi}.

I still believe that the recent Kagami + Something_Smart engagement flowed strangely enough to have scum influence within it.
I noticed a few small details that pinged me when I looked through the last couple pages (primarily Hitogoroshi's, if I remember correctly). I remember not liking how Hitogoroshi handled Kagami specifically today.

When I specifically look at who appears to have a set plan in place for how to end the game, Kagami shoots right up to the top of the list.

a) She specifically created a situation where LLD is by far the most likely scum candidate by standard wagon logic, then specifically argued for that being the case.
b) She specifically called LLD scum for picking Rose instead of Gun, and her logic here contradicts this, which was subsequently dropped completely.
c) Her posting regarding the Pine wagon is incongruent with her play today. Her stance for most of the day has been somewhere in the realm of passive observing and passive approving, and she only really pushes against it at all towards the very end despite, as I noted above, already having set up the thought process to realize something was up already. It simply makes no sense to me that a town Kagami would approach day two that passively, say things like this, then start the day by hard pushing both slots that were pushing the Pine wagon through.

When you combine the above three, the picture you come to is that Kagami allowed the wagon on the only town Gun to go through while setting up LLD as the game winning mislynch, then directly pushing through with it when given the opportunity. She's gone out of her way multiple times to say that LLD is by far her biggest scumread or objectively the correct lynch, yet her instinct when both Hitogoroshi and Implosion make their first appearances after I joined the game is to start humoring other scumteams potentially existing. This is even without going into this post, which... I don't understand the point behind it being made in the first place? I don't see a connection to any of her other posts made afterwards, nor how it (or really even her overall tone and thoughts here) fits her thought process that the scumteam is just LLD + Hitogoroshi.

There's simply too much I find bizarre about how she's playing this game.

As for her partner, I'm leaning hitogoroshi at the moment, although that's predominantly because of the above gutpings I had on his posting, combined with how Kagami appears to have been trying to push Implosion to be the one to hammer LLD (which prepares for the worst case scenario of a no kill night three). I could see a Kagami + Hitogoroshi team not hammering LLD immediately for specifically the purpose of having Implosion take the fall of being the hammer vote to make a potential 5p LyLo much safer.

That said, I'm not entirely convinced on that team. I still think Something_Smart makes a bit more sense in the 'raw planning' department of this game since it's much easier to force the game to go this direction if both scum specifically push for it, but I haven't even looked at the night two kills to confirm or deny that this specific scumteam pushes for this game. I'm somewhat assuming that the scumteam were more concerned with not hitting roses (since night 2 rose, to me, would be something I'd expect to be commonly picked) over deciding on the correct endgame, since the road to endgame is significantly harder with a full mislynch to spare than from MyLo.

(And for clarity, I'm fully assuming that scum do not have an extra gunshot tonight, I expect that either one picked a rose to foil vigs, or both vigs picked night one or night two guns.)

[Kagami]

Alright, firstly, I think you need to reread and digest this game a bit more.

I'll go through this point by point,

What is the "posturing" I've done on the last page? What have I done that does not fit the game from my point of view? What have I done that is congruent with my being scum?

Okay, here's ultimately what I'm thinking regarding this game.

First, I decided that I'm not going to read back through days one and two in their entirety. I firmly believe that the content there is far more likely to be raw noise over relevant content, especially since I simultaneously believe that what's going on today is very likely going to be enough to pick out what exactly scum are looking to do with this endgame.

Second, I firmly believe that all five of you are competent enough at mafia to at least have an idea for how to end the game in a win as scum in this game, even against the other three players (not counting my own slot, Cyan) still alive. This is slightly harder to just accept for any other slot since my predecessor was clearly newer at the game, but FMPOV any list of two players in this endgame is more than capable enough of having a set plan for how to handle this MyLo, especially since it's very obvious just by the setup that the night two kills were both scum kills. It's simply ridiculous to think that the scumteam are playing in a way that isn't likely to give them a win. This already gives a level of focus to the game that allows how people are playing the endgame to be readable.

ok, sure. Scum want to win.

I find it very hard to believe that an LLD+(S_S/Kagami) team is possible since then this immediate LLD piledrive wagon doesn't make any sense as a play in MyLo.
Implosion/Hitogoroshi is not a team because just hammering LLD when she was at L-1 is a simple enough endgame to win even in the worst case scenario, and I fully believe that they would've taken that when given the opportunity.

The "piledrive" was your slot's action, which while reckless, had a wildly pro-town result. I'm pretty sure LLD didn't see that coming. I joined much later after I felt reasonably certain that no one had missed out on quickhammer shenanigans. Imp-Hito is not a viable team, that is correct.

This by necessity means that either both Something_Smart and Kagami is scum, or the scumteam is {LLD/S_S/Kagami} + {Implosion/hitogoroshi}.

No, this is just wrong. It's exactly S_S and me, or LLD and anyone.

I still believe that the recent Kagami + Something_Smart engagement flowed strangely enough to have scum influence within it.
I noticed a few small details that pinged me when I looked through the last couple pages (primarily Hitogoroshi's, if I remember correctly). I remember not liking how Hitogoroshi handled Kagami specifically today.

Hito has exactly one viable scum partner: LLD. When you entered and flipped your slot's position, LLD+Hito had won with near certainty. Hito was beautifully positioned to support a kagami lynch, but rejected it in 808. While Hito has made mistakes in this game, I don't think he's viably scum unless he's doing a pretty silly slowroll.

When I specifically look at who appears to have a set plan in place for how to end the game, Kagami shoots right up to the top of the list.

My *plan* insofar as it existed was that I thought LLD and Hito were scum going into the night, and had pops as a wildcard #3 (which I submitted to FG shortly after I saw the lynch). At the time, it seemed reasonably possible that we had room for another mislynch in which case the pine thing wasn't a complete disaster, but I didn't realize that players got alignment first and so there was going to be at least one double kill coming.

a) She specifically created a situation where LLD is by far the most likely scum candidate by standard wagon logic, then specifically argued for that being the case.

Pretty sure I just didn't do this. I've argued for hito being scum at some length, but LLD being nearly confirmed scum was a consequence of her not getting hammered.

b) She specifically called LLD scum for picking Rose instead of Gun, and her logic here contradicts this, which was subsequently dropped completely.

I think you just misunderstand what's happening there? 643 is just me being surprised that LLD didn't pick N1 gun. I assumed anyone picking gun would probably pick N1 gun, which I still think is probably optimal for town, and saw that there was a single N1 kill that looked like a scum kill, so I figured there was no N1 gun and was surprised LLD in particular wouldn't choose it (as I would have if I had gotten to choose my role). Some number of hours into Today, I realized that there was alignment relevant information in players' predisposition to choose roles and commented thusly, but as I had said, that was already irrelevant.

c) Her posting regarding the Pine wagon is incongruent with her play today. Her stance for most of the day has been somewhere in the realm of passive observing and passive approving, and she only really pushes against it at all towards the very end despite, as I noted above, already having set up the thought process to realize something was up already. It simply makes no sense to me that a town Kagami would approach day two that passively, say things like this, then start the day by hard pushing both slots that were pushing the Pine wagon through.

I was literally not there when the wagon built up. I was running out the door when I saw pine say there was two town guns and was checking on that without having really recognized pops's vote. I think you should check the timestamps on the pine wagon. I did all I expected I needed to do to make sure his claim would be sorted out, and I believed it very possible that pine was in fact scum and was going to be CCed.

When you combine the above three, the picture you come to is that Kagami allowed the wagon on the only town Gun to go through while setting up LLD as the game winning mislynch, then directly pushing through with it when given the opportunity. She's gone out of her way multiple times to say that LLD is by far her biggest scumread or objectively the correct lynch, yet her instinct when both Hitogoroshi and Implosion make their first appearances after I joined the game is to start humoring other scumteams potentially existing. This is even without going into this post, which... I don't understand the point behind it being made in the first place? I don't see a connection to any of her other posts made afterwards, nor how it (or really even her overall tone and thoughts here) fits her thought process that the scumteam is just LLD + Hitogoroshi.

This is just false? I didn't let anything go on pine. I didn't set up anything on LLD, so I don't even get what you're saying there. I thought LLD was pretty likely to be scum, saw her get run up to L-2, saw no quickhammers, assessed that you and s_s were pretty unlikely to be scum together, so she's scum. I haven't said she's my biggest scumread at all; I haven't even read most of her posts. She's scum by mechanics thus objectively the correct lynch, that is true. I am "humoring" s_s teams in my earlier posting because hito has switched from scumread to town and I am open to working with another reasonable soul. The linked post results from me recognizing that hito has to be town (or is slowrolling in a really unnecessary way). If you think I should punished for voicing idle game-relevant thoughts, then that's something you should correct.

There's simply too much I find bizarre about how she's playing this game.

I think you're just misunderstanding an awful lot.

As for her partner, I'm leaning hitogoroshi at the moment, although that's predominantly because of the above gutpings I had on his posting, combined with how Kagami appears to have been trying to push Implosion to be the one to hammer LLD (which prepares for the worst case scenario of a no kill night three). I could see a Kagami + Hitogoroshi team not hammering LLD immediately for specifically the purpose of having Implosion take the fall of being the hammer vote to make a potential 5p LyLo much safer.

No, scum almost certainly wins on a mislynch here. Even if he didn't, I'm pretty sure he'd be able to spin up a hammer that has plausible deniability. Keep in mind, the scumteam is almost certainly two Guns. We've seen one extra kill, so either they have two kills tonight, or a kill was blocked earlier and they know that that player is vulnerable tonight. The only possible world where a mislynch isn't game over is if they had two kills N1 and one hit pops. Given pops was looking toward a pine lynch, I don't see him being a N1 target.

That said, I'm not entirely convinced on that team. I still think Something_Smart makes a bit more sense in the 'raw planning' department of this game since it's much easier to force the game to go this direction if both scum specifically push for it, but I haven't even looked at the night two kills to confirm or deny that this specific scumteam pushes for this game. I'm somewhat assuming that the scumteam were more concerned with not hitting roses (since night 2 rose, to me, would be something I'd expect to be commonly picked) over deciding on the correct endgame, since the road to endgame is significantly harder with a full mislynch to spare than from MyLo.

(And for clarity, I'm fully assuming that scum do not have an extra gunshot tonight, I expect that either one picked a rose to foil vigs, or both vigs picked night one or night two guns.)

I think you're wrong that scum would ever consider a rose unless there was a really good reason to believe all of town was going to pick a specific day to be a vig. Even if they were dum-dums and picked a rose, I don't think they are scared of a N3 rose foiling a win.

[Kagami]

I'd say if anything is obvious from my posting in general, it should be that I don't have anything resembling a plan.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

@Hito

Did you read my "playing scum" article?

Kagami just did "Bullets for Bullets".

[implosion]

Left my job today, and will be busy most of the day tomorrow and Friday. I'll find time to process things/eventually vote in the evenings.

Honestly a big part of me wants hito over kagami or lld right now because I'm becoming more sold on kagami+lld being not the team but that's probably not feasible.

While Hito has made mistakes in this game, I don't think he's viably scum unless he's doing a pretty silly slowroll.

I don't understand what you think would be "silly" about this slowroll.

Do you really think hito would quickhammer? Do you really think hito is the kind of player who, as scum, would quickhammer in a situation where it doesn't strictly guarantee him the win?

Keep in mind, the scumteam is almost certainly two Guns. We've seen one extra kill, so either they have two kills tonight, or a kill was blocked earlier and they know that that player is vulnerable tonight. The only possible world where a mislynch isn't game over is if they had two kills N1 and one hit pops. Given pops was looking toward a pine lynch, I don't see him being a N1 target.

This is an interesting angle but I'd also be somewhat surprised if scum took, like, n2+n3 guns. It'd be a big risk. I think one N1 kill hitting pops is entirely feasible and him "looking toward a pine lynch" is a really half-assed one-dimensional reason to entirely discount him as a possible n1 target.

[Something_Smart]

Kagami just did "Bullets for Bullets".

Do you have statistics to show that scum do this more often than random? Because, uh, some people just like to refute points like that, regardless of alignment.

Do you really think hito would quickhammer? Do you really think hito is the kind of player who, as scum, would quickhammer in a situation where it doesn't strictly guarantee him the win?

...Hito literally quickhammered the IC, so, hell yeah?

[hitogoroshi]

Blake, even if you don't want to read the previous parts of the game much, can you ISO s_s and/or Haschel and look between them? I have that one post that I'm using as my keystone for "s_s and Kagami are not buddies" but the whole thing is pretty unconvincing of buddy action I think - s_s I think was clearly hopeful of the chance to start casing on Haschel and Haschel went reasonably hard on s_s. I I think it's kind of important to look the associatives here because yeah Kagami has some sketch stuff in isolation but Kagami just makes sense as no ones partner. And if Kagami is my partner I just pretend that 765 is the last word instead of pushing back with 773, right? In a world where implo is town and not just trying to get me to disarm the wagon on his scumbuddy, he actually means what he says in 765, so even if we pretend I would avoid hammering in Kagami/hito just to play some super long odds by making implo hammer, why wouldn't I just hang back and uhh, let implo hammer?

I don't know. If LLD is scum she is playing a good game but implo looks so buddy it makes me really think LLD is scum. though s_s, I would still really like to know what went through your head for this post:

Ank! \o/

Hopefully you can help me quell what doubts I have about your slot. I'm giving you permission to Amished here; read your predecessor's last post and tell me that isn't cringe-worthy.

because nothing else you've done today seems congruent with these doubts tbh!

[Something_Smart]

because nothing else you've done today seems congruent with these doubts tbh!

Really?

Where did I say something that doesn't make sense with that?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Implo has been scummy all game Hito. If he literally could be scum in this situation I would be lynching him, but he and you both had me at l-1 with the ability to hammer and neither of you did.

So from my perspective you're both either town or completely legitimately insane.

Hito, I want you to read Kagami's response to Ankamius' read and tell me, from your experience if you think that is town posting.

Because the bullets for bullets on ank's case strikes me like the goal wasn't to actually address Ank and read and sort him, her goal was more or less to deflect the case and convince YOU she's town.

They only need one vote right? it's yours they are looking for at this point. I think she lost Implo, no matter how scummy he is, and now she's losing Ank.

So if she can gain your vote, she'll probably gain an apathy vote from one of the tohers, especially if she switches from calling you scum to calling Implo scum.

Did you notice that? She did it to sway you to lynch me, her reasons for the switch are kind of flimsy at best. Basically she's altering her reads to suit her survival and scum game, and not her actual developed reads. She's fabricating Hito.

Please god tell me you can see this

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Hito I promise promise promise you I am town.

Like I get that I am often unreadable, and so you're reading me through implo in a sense but like

in any other world I'd tell you to just lynch Implo cause the dude does look scummy.

But I have more or less mod confirmation he is town because he didn't hammer, just like you, and we're in MyLo.

The town is you me and Implo and one more, Hito.

At this point I have to think it's Ankamius, given how Kagami responded to them. Do you think Kagami responds to a partner that way? I can't see it as theatre, really.

So I don't care which one we lynch first anymore. I was on Kagami because I didn't wanna sort S_S/Cyan and I had my guesses but I wanted it saved for tomorrow, but now it's basically clear to me what the team has to be, and so

Hito
Implo
Ank

let's not throw a fucking easily won game for the love of all that is holy.

S_S was scummy on day 1 then lurked under the radar to my eternal shame, Kagami has been open!wolfing this entire day.

this is the team, please god listen to my words

[Kagami]

Hito I promise promise promise you I am town.

You're being scum doesn't make this any less skeevy.

I get that you want to win, but I'm never going to play with you again.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

What exactly about that is skeevy?

I'm saying I'm town. If I'm scum of course I'm lying if I'm town I'm telling the truth. It's an appeal to his emotions as someone who he knows, but I'm doing it as town beseeching him to consider and view things my way.

I don't understand what you're so cross about, to be honest, and frankly I feel a bit insulted. I've done nothing wrong.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Like if your issue is Appeal to Emotions, people appeal to emotions in mafia all the time as both alignments. I'm not doing anything abnormal there.

If your issue is me saying I promise him I'm town, and that somehow promises hold some weight in mafia, if you can't break promises in Mafia, the optimal strategy for town would be to force people to swear and promise they're town and if they lie about that promise, they're clearly scumbags who play in a bad way!

So of course people promise and break promises in mafia, it's a game of DECEPTION. And sometimes you keep promises.

I'm actually really really upset about this, because it transposes the game. You're calling me a bad person because I promised someone I was town. As either alignment there's nothing wrong with this and yet you think yourself superior or something?

Fuck this and honestly fuck you that's such horseshit I'm honestly really hurt.