Mini 586 - Blood Red Mafia - Game Over!

[DarlaBlueEyes]

well I tried heh.... and I must say... DAMN YOU MALTH! xD

DIE TOWN DIE!

[Macavenger]

Heh. I guess I had DBE pegged wrong. I'm an obvious lynch but I still think we should take a look at GS's and coheed's play. blah blah blah I'm scum blah blah. I don't think we should tolerate this D4. I'd like some original content from him.

Vote: goborage

is the only content we need today.

If the game doesn't end when you're dead, I'll take a look at Greasy and coheed for you.

Also Darla, thanks for killing the tiny niggling doubts in the back of my head that you might have been a death miller.

[goborage]

My only defense regarding DBE is that it was a misread. That and WIFOM. If I was playing scum I definitely wouldn't have defended DBE like I did. I'd bus her seeing as how so much of town found her scummy. In all earnestness, I didn't think her mass-defending was scummy, but I guess this shows what I know. Anyways expect a claim at L-1 from me.

[CoheedCambria09]

Right now,

Goborage- Defending DBE (now that we know she was a werewolve) makes you very suspicious. Trying to defend you buddy and keep the odds up?

Greasyspot- The very "untownly" play (voting with no reasons, tough to get info from, even when asked)

I'm looking at both of you for those reasons. Consider this a "vote" right now for Goborage (I don't want to put you at L-1[I beleive it would be that, 4 to lynch with 7 alive, 2 votes already on you]because I don't want a quick hammer, we need more info)

[Macavenger]

My only defense regarding DBE is that it was a misread.

That's all well and dandy. How about your defenses for the fact that, in addition to that "misread," you've been damned useless to the town all game, carefully avoiding wagons that it didn't benefit scum to be on?

That and WIFOM. If I was playing scum I definitely wouldn't have defended DBE like I did. I'd bus her seeing as how so much of town found her scummy. In all earnestness, I didn't think her mass-defending was scummy, but I guess this shows what I know.

Hey, at least you admit this is crappy WIFOM. I can just as easily see scum thinking they have an easy mislynch in Greasy and trying to ride that out to get the town into LyLo before losing their partner. Claiming what you want us to think you'd do as scum is meaningless.

Anyways expect a claim at L-1 from me.

Might as well go ahead and claim now. coheed is threatening an L-1 vote on you, and I don't think it's going to be long before someone else comes to put on a real one.

[CoheedCambria09]

...waiting for claim from Goborage

[Shepherd_of_Wolves]

First off, I want to say, 2 of the three in my trifecta have come up guilty. I will reread the thread to see about the third. I think that defending one friend, then turning on the next scum could be very possible to change an appearance. But, for now, this is my concern.

Quotes from Goborage that bother me:

I seriously don't have anything to say about the others. It was a strain just to write this.

Scum strain to fabricate their pseudo-case on town members when not much has been said.

In summary, defending another player is not necessarily scummy behaviour. I think townies defend their ilk just as much as scum do (maybe even more so as scum may try to avoid making connections to each other).

Town do not know who their ilk are, unless they are mason or they have investigation results. Therefore, how can town defend town more so than scum?

@popular: I'll acknowledge there is a possibility that there are scum on Mal's BW but I still think it's way more likely that they are off it. To make it clear, yes, I think your behaviour is more suspicious than Darla's.

This would be awfully convenient for town to believe for scum, if they both happen to be on it.

My vote is still on popular but I wouldn't object to a GS lynch. Lynching someone for being anti-town is as good a reason as any imo.

This anti-town accusation seems very ambiguous. "As good a reason as any" sounds like scum talk. Scum come up with any reason. Being anti-town should be seen by town as very scummy, not just as good a reason as any. We need solid beliefs in real reasons. Not just any reason to commit lynches.

Ya miller really just seems like a headache for town. Anyways I'm willing to believe you for now. I still think that GS should be today's lynch.

Vote: Greasy Spot

You seem to be the only one who believes Darla. Why did you believe her so easily?

I still want to get more from Grease. But, I am interested in hearing your response Goborage.

[populartajo]

My only defense regarding DBE is that it was a misread. That and WIFOM. If I was playing scum I definitely wouldn't have defended DBE like I did. I'd bus her seeing as how so much of town found her scummy. In all earnestness, I didn't think her mass-defending was scummy, but I guess this shows what I know. Anyways expect a claim at L-1 from me.

Why isnt this guy dead?

[CoheedCambria09]

cause were waiting for his claim

[Amor]

I agree that goborage's connections with Darla seem pretty solid, and his play hasn't done much to convince me he's town. Given that we've gotten two of the scum, we should probably try to lynch based on connections now, so that would definitely put goborage under suspicion, as well as populartajo to some extent. I will probably be willing to put down a vote after hearing his claim.

[populartajo]

I agree that goborage's connections with Darla seem pretty solid, and his play hasn't done much to convince me he's town. Given that we've gotten two of the scum, we should probably try to lynch based on connections now, so that would definitely put goborage under suspicion, as well as populartajo to some extent. I will probably be willing to put down a vote after hearing his claim.

Why me?

[goborage]

First off, I want to say, 2 of the three in my trifecta have come up guilty. I will reread the thread to see about the third. I think that defending one friend, then turning on the next scum could be very possible to change an appearance. But, for now, this is my concern.

Quotes from Goborage that bother me:

I seriously don't have anything to say about the others. It was a strain just to write this.

Scum strain to fabricate their pseudo-case on town members when not much has been said.

Meta me if you want. I've never made long lists of how I feel about players. If I do it in the future it definitely won't be on D1.

In summary, defending another player is not necessarily scummy behaviour. I think townies defend their ilk just as much as scum do (maybe even more so as scum may try to avoid making connections to each other).

Town do not know who their ilk are, unless they are mason or they have investigation results. Therefore, how can town defend town more so than scum?

It's just probability. Town is more likely to defend town just because there are more town than scum. If you're asking who defends more in general, town or scum, then I'd say it's about equal. Scum have plenty of reason to defend (i.e. to buddy, to defend partner, to look pro-town). And of course pro-town players should be defending the people they think are mislynches.

@popular: I'll acknowledge there is a possibility that there are scum on Mal's BW but I still think it's way more likely that they are off it. To make it clear, yes, I think your behaviour is more suspicious than Darla's.

This would be awfully convenient for town to believe for scum, if they both happen to be on it.

Don't understand this.

My vote is still on popular but I wouldn't object to a GS lynch. Lynching someone for being anti-town is as good a reason as any imo.

This anti-town accusation seems very ambiguous. "As good a reason as any" sounds like scum talk. Scum come up with any reason. Being anti-town should be seen by town as very scummy, not just as good a reason as any. We need solid beliefs in real reasons. Not just any reason to commit lynches.

I agree? You're not really disproving that anti-town play is a bad reason for a lynch. I guess you're just caught up in my wording.

Ya miller really just seems like a headache for town. Anyways I'm willing to believe you for now. I still think that GS should be today's lynch.

Vote: Greasy Spot

You seem to be the only one who believes Darla. Why did you believe her so easily?

Because my scum-sensors are way off.

Paraphrasing: I'm an Apothecary (a doc). Every night I can douse a villager in a concoction that werewolves find repellent. The werewolves will avoid being near this villager thus preventing any night actions against said villager. I win when all werewolves are dead.

N1 I protected SoW
N2 I protected SoW
N3 I protected Mac

I await your judgment.

[populartajo]

Ok, Goborage.
I need to reread to find out some things but you (or anyone) could help me with some.
a) Why SOW and Mac?
b) Do you realize the existence of a Martyr and a Jack of all Threads?
c) Did you breadcrumb being a doctor at any part of the game?
d) For balance reasons dont you think is a little overpowered for town to have this variety of power roles?

[goborage]

a) They were who I judged to be the most-town at the time.
b) Yes though I'm not entirely sure what those roles do. The Jack-of-Trades wiki is kind of vague. I have no clue what a martyr is.
c) No I did not think to do that. I thought that I should just lie low.
d) No clue. You'd have to ask the mod. Pure speculation: maybe there are 5 scum who only have one NK. Maybe there are some lovers in this game.

[Macavenger]

Better justification of why you thought SoW and I were most protown at the time. Why SoW N1 and 2? Your posts toward the end of Day 1 indicate a neutral/suspicious attitude toward him.

Why did I become more protown than him during Day 3?

Mod:

Would you be willing to confirm the unflavored name for caf19's role, like you did for Riceballtail?

Apothecary being a protective role would be correct, and somewhat fits flavor-wise, though the flavor on the method strikes me as a bit off. Apothecaries were more pharmacists than alchemists.

Not buying the claim overall. It's a far better fakeclaim than Darla's (if it's fake), but we already have what looks like one dead protective role, and gobo's play this game has been damning.

I did some rereading. Amor and SoW are still very unlikely to be scum. populartajo is also unlikely at this point, I think - things like raising the possibility that riceball investigated DBE, and the attention to detail in pointing out her error in the town win condition, don't feel like bussing. Note that tajo knowing the town win condition doesn't confirm him by itself, because the vanilla PM is posted on page 1. Still, tajo moves down lots on my scum list after yesterday.

Honestly, I'm getting pretty close to saying if it isn't gobo, it almost has to be greasy, with an outside chance at coheed.

[goborage]

Well I was satisfied with SoW's answer. I saw what I perceived to be as earnestness in his detailed, and thought out post (#164). Post 144 also won me over. As to why I switched on N3? I figured scum must have some aversion to NKing SoW (even though town opinion of him is so high) so I switched over to you. That and the fact that you led a wagon against two scum.

[populartajo]

Gobo, I dont understand why you protected SoW and Mac.
1. Why did you protect Mac N3 if you were thinking he could be scum?
2. Why didnt you protect me N1 if you were agreeing with me about defending Darla?
3. Why did you protect SoW N1 and N2, a player, that in that moment could have been scum and was against your theory of Darla being town?

[Shepherd_of_Wolves]

I think that Gobo's claim seems realistic and believable. Further, I think the flavor of his claim seems true to the game. Mac, if you do not believe in the potent formula, then what would you expect? I think that you were targeted on N1 and that you were guarded by caf19. I think that you were the target N3 again and that you were saved from lynch.

My choices at this time are Grease and Coheed. I will elaborate more later and decide my vote later.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Mod: Would you be willing to confirm the unflavored name for caf19's role, like you did for Riceballtail?

Martyr really is the best description for the role caf19 had.

[Macavenger]

I think that Gobo's claim seems realistic and believable. Further, I think the flavor of his claim seems true to the game. Mac, if you do not believe in the potent formula, then what would you expect?

The claim is fairly believable overall. As I said, if it's fake, it's a pretty good one. The holes in are mainly that Apothecaries would generally be creating medicines for people to ingest, not dousing them with something. I can see that as being a disagreement between the mod and myself over the historical role of apothecaries, admittedly. The other is that caf19 was some kind of protective role by any reasonable assumption, and I'm skeptical of having two protective roles plus a JoAT.

I think that you were targeted on N1 and that you were guarded by caf19. I think that you were the target N3 again and that you were saved from lynch.

I don't think we're going to get anywhere looking at the N1 kill. You, caf19 and I were all excellent NK choices for scum then, and you and I were both excellent doctor choices. I still think there's a fairly good chance caf19 could have been targeted directly N1. I know dropping the hammer pretty much entirely cleared him in my mind.

As for last nights no-kill, I see three plausible explanations for this. One is that gobo is telling the truth, scum attempted to kill me, and he had a successful protection. Another is that gobo no-killed in order to set himself up for this claim today. Third would be that Greasy is scum, and didn't kill because he has basically no access right now and didn't make the deadline.

My choices at this time are Grease and Coheed. I will elaborate more later and decide my vote later.

I agree they're pretty much the choices if not gobo.

Overall I still think goborage's play this game, and his very firm links to DBE, are absolutely damning. He's done basically nothing to help the town, he was trying to keep DBE out of the noose, and DBE was protecting him all the way, even before he started really strongly defending her Day 3. The claim shouldn't be a clear all.

The other thing is, if not gobo, Greasy's name jumps immediately to the top of the list, in my opinion. The problem with that is that DBE was trying hard to get Greasy killed yesterday. Her play didn't read as distancing to me, but rather genuine attempt to lynch. If Greasy were her partner, that would be basically suicide, as she had to know she'd still be very high on the chopping block after that. This doesn't clear Greasy, but it makes me more skeptical than I otherwise would be.

I'd be willing to consider giving goborage a reprieve for a day, depending on his answers to tajo and I here - town is far enough ahead we can certainly afford to be a little sloppy at this point (let's not go overboard with that, though). At this point, while gobo, Greasy, coheed, and to a lesser extent tajo have all been scummy this game, goborage is the only one whose play doesn't give me at least one or two decent reasons to think he's not scum.

[populartajo]

Thats exactly what I was thinking. It was pretty much DBE's first time as scum so I cant imagine her busing her scumpartner to death knowing that she could probably was going to be lynched. I think, IMO, this pretty much confirms Greasy Spot as an easy target for scum and therefore probably townie.

[Macavenger]

We could also massclaim if you guys want to. With 2 power roles already dead and one claimed, I can't see that it would do much damage, but there's a chance we could get a little more setup information that might clarify things a bit.

[goborage]

Gobo, I dont understand why you protected SoW and Mac.
1. Why did you protect Mac N3 if you were thinking he could be scum?
2. Why didnt you protect me N1 if you were agreeing with me about defending Darla?
3. Why did you protect SoW N1 and N2, a player, that in that moment could have been scum and was against your theory of Darla being town?

1. Whatever suspicions I had were squashed by the lynch of DBE. Unless he's doing some massive bussing, I'd say Mac looks pro-town from his actions.
2. Sorry, you just didn't look as pro-town as SoW did.
3. Just because someone disagrees with me doesn't make them scum. As I've said before, SoW's play seemed very earnest to me D1.

[populartajo]

WARNING : LONG POST.

In fact, lets analyse what darlascum said all the game.

D1

Being that I am also a newbie aside, I really am thinking that Malth's reactions are newbie based, I mean I was just as jumpy and reactionary in my first few game posts.

I am not convinced yet

I am still really suspicious of Caf/Amor, Coheed seems pretty harmless I think,

unvote

We know Malth was her scumpartner so she probably defended or was neutral about his other scumpartner(s).
This post also tells me that Caf and Amor arent her scumpartners (in fact Caf is dead martyr and she suspects Amor in all her first posts) and that Coheed's read is mmm, harmless.

I also think Shepherd is trying a bit too hard, but is yet to slip up in any scumtells.

I am gonna go with my gut here and vote:amor I find you the most suspicious of the posters thus far, your defense of caf was never answered for and was ill timed.

I think its pretty hard for Darla to come up with bus at that state of the game so Im 90% sure Amor isnt her scumpartner.
About Shepherd, well, obv if he's town he's not an easy target for scum.
hmmmm

unvote Amor; Vote: Macavenger

You seem to be very mysterious in this one, and I think Amor answered well enough.

Feeling pretty much confident with my previous attacks against Mac, she jumps against him and pressures him strongly. This also tells me Mac isnt her scumpartner.

What are we trying to get out of Mac from putting him under pressure, and I am also still waiting to hear what malthusis says about his wording sentence

I think that what he was trying to do is use the same tactic Mac claimed to be using to test Math earlier. I find him suspicious personally, My vote would stand pressure or not.

Do you not want us to pressure Mac, Coheed?

*makes note*

Mmm, again this interaction doesnt make me confortable. "makes note"?

my top two suspects are Travis and Mal at this point, but I am not gonna vote for someone I don't have a solid case against esp. when theres already a bandwagon forming.

Unluckily Travis is dead now. He was town. This seems a desesperate attempt to change suspicions.

I can see a Pop/Mal alliance sure, why Pop is defending me I do not know, maybe he likes that I was defending his scum buddy (mal) and wants to keep me around longer than those who are leading the crusade against mal.

Again, trying to deflect the attention. But goborage tried to do the same, in a subtly way, however.

Goborage ==

I am sorry If i let you down, but its not a simple task to follow up a post like that.

She was refering to SoW's epic post. Goborage felt dissapointed for her response.

RANDOM FUN FACT

@ Riceball: I totally understand your suspicion of me, but I see now how completely stupid I was <defending everything> so I can't even say its unwarranted suspicion, I'm still learning all this stuff so I tend to make a lot of stupid mistakes.

Hopefully tomorrow I can change your mind

How ironic. I want to know if Rice indeed investigated DBE?

D2

assuming the other scum didn't vote from smoke that leaves:

Amor, popilartajo, greasyspot, xoelf (travis)

This strategy was also proposed by another player. Hint hint: Goborage.

At this point Im really interested in Goborage and Coheed. Maybe maybe Amor.
Lets see what she had to say of them.

Goborage -- seems pretty genuinely town, was scum hunting and actually thought about the lynch on smoke before bandwagoning, 80/20 town/scum

Coheed - Added hardly anything useful to the hunt, bandwagoned and lurked a good bit, not getting very good town vibes from him 70/30 town/scum

Notice that in this same post she stronlgy suspects me and Amor. She isnt sure about Greasy, Travis, SoW and she thinks Mac and Rice are 80/20 town/scum.

D3

Xoxelf (Travis) comes up town and Rice comes up hunter. Its time for another of her analysis.

Coheed - 60% town, Hard to read, seemed a bit oppourunistic there at the end but overall more townie than scummy.

Amor - 50% town, I have wondered if this was a scum, avoiding the wagons, keeping low, and pledging psuedo votes that he doesn't have to follow through on. Im not really getting a strong read either way but its possible.

Goborage - 70% town, Seems townie to me, very logical and scum hunting oriented.

Mmmm. Not too much to get of here. She still feels very neutral about Coheed and Amor. She still thinks Goborage is pretty town with Mac and SoW sharing the same percentages of towness (70-80%)

Last analysis.

Amor: Can't get a great read on him, seems pretty neutral, but I would think Town, in this case.

Coheed: Only other scum suspect for me, and its really pushing it. I will have to come back later to explain, as for now I must go,

Gobo; seems pretty town, I reread a lot of his posts and like SOW seems pretty level headed and doesn't jump to conclusions, if you read back the lump sum of his posting he is possibly one of the most neutral players as well.

Still not too much to get of here.
FUN FACT: She forgot to analyse Goborage and she never came back to explaoin Coheed's read.

Conclusion:

we should be looking either Goborage or Coheed. Maybe Amor, but I doubt it for the attacks at the beginning of the game. Greasy Spot, being an easy target for scum yesterday, is IMO confirmed as not her scumpartner.

[goborage]

My choices at this time are Grease and Coheed. I will elaborate more later and decide my vote later.

I agree they're pretty much the choices if not gobo.

Overall I still think goborage's play this game, and his very firm links to DBE, are absolutely damning. He's done basically nothing to help the town, he was trying to keep DBE out of the noose, and DBE was protecting him all the way, even before he started really strongly defending her Day 3. The claim shouldn't be a clear all.

The other thing is, if not gobo, Greasy's name jumps immediately to the top of the list, in my opinion. The problem with that is that DBE was trying hard to get Greasy killed yesterday. Her play didn't read as distancing to me, but rather genuine attempt to lynch. If Greasy were her partner, that would be basically suicide, as she had to know she'd still be very high on the chopping block after that. This doesn't clear Greasy, but it makes me more skeptical than I otherwise would be.

I'd be willing to consider giving goborage a reprieve for a day, depending on his answers to tajo and I here - town is far enough ahead we can certainly afford to be a little sloppy at this point (let's not go overboard with that, though). At this point, while gobo, Greasy, coheed, and to a lesser extent tajo have all been scummy this game, goborage is the only one whose play doesn't give me at least one or two decent reasons to think he's not scum.

Well you might not like my play but it doesn't necessarily make me scum. The fact that DBE was defending me seems like an act of survival. She never really defended me anyways, she just said she agreed with my sentiments (which were anti-DBE lynch lol). If you notice at the end of D3 she stopped praising me after I suggested that she could be viewed as scummy.

I don't really know what's going on DBE's head (which I guess is pretty clear now). I can only speculate and assume she's evolving as a scum player. After being told to stop defending people she did. After defending Malth, she made the right (imo) move as scum and bussed Malth. Assuming GS is scum as well, I think that DBE made the right move. If the lynch went through then DBE would look pro-town for suggesting the lynch. If it didn't, DBE would leave little to no association with GS.