Mini #553: Over!

[BridgesAndBaloons]

God I feel really unhelpful right now. Just to let you guys know I have intense hell-week waterpolo practices each day this week, so I'm a little tired. My goal is to re-read destructor and Imat/Guardian again.

[destructor]

Bab, I don't understand what you're saying or what you think I'm saying.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

The problem is going out and not being subtle here will help the scum right now.
It's very unfortunate that you don't understand. If you can, re-read your posts and what I said and try to understand again.

Also, did you ever re-read my giant posts over the night?

[ting =)]

Dude, we're 90% (arbitrary number) at LYLO. We lose if we mislynch. There's no second chances.

90% is too high. Most games with an sk only have 2 scum, which is what I'm expecting. I only mentioned lylo because it's a possibility, and it never hurts to be cautious.

Don't get me wrong, I'm still for a guardian lynch, but me focusing on him helps nothing. I'm more inclined to look at other players for the moment.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Most games with an sk only have 2 scum

I don't want to try to out-guess the mod. We may have 1/2 scum left, and I'd rather proceed with caution.

Still if everyone else thinks (and if they're correct) we have 1 scum left, then we pretty much have a guaranteed way to win the game.

Prediction stuff next:

Wait a second. Let's assume for a momment that Guardian is scum. He would have only tried this gambit if there was another scum left since Guardian would be lynched after Destructor. So if Guardian is scum, I'm pretty certain we have another one left. Maybe I'm wrong.

[destructor]

I'm pretty sure we've got two scum left because of this:

[Guardian] would have only tried this gambit if there was another scum left since Guardian would be lynched after Destructor.

I realise that the rest of the town can't be sure of that, but I'm just saying.

The problem is going out and not being subtle here will help the scum right now.
It's very unfortunate that you don't understand. If you can, re-read your posts and what I said and try to understand again.

I still don't get it. If it's going to help scum, why bring it up?

Also, did you ever re-read my giant posts over the night?

I didn't get around to reading them, no. Why do you ask? Do you think I should?

Also, this:

Bab, if I recall correctly, you were one of those pushing a Guardian lynch hardest yesterday. Even if you say you're "so close in the middle", how is it that Guardian's tenuous claim somehow tips me above him?

[Sethaniel]

regarding massive's role: I thought this was supposed to be a mini normal? Is "a doctor who learns who targeted their night choice" a normal role?

[Matt_S]

regarding massive's role: I thought this was supposed to be a mini normal? Is "a doctor who learns who targeted their night choice" a normal role?

If it's just a watcher/doc combo like it sounds, then I think that's okay since both roles alone are viable.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I'm going to be gone with the next two weeks (21st-5th) but I worked it out with the mod, and I'm staying in the game. I posted in the mini-game queue for a temporary replacement, so hopefully you guys will get one.

If not, when I come back, I SWEAR I will spend about an hour looking at Guardian and Destructor and make a decision.
That's a promise.

Again, I'm sorry, stuff has caught up lately.

[destructor]

Bab, when you get back, don't forget to answer my question.

About the Doc claim, no I don't think that's a very normal role to claim. But I also don't think that excuses dropping a hammer like Guardian did.

[Sethaniel]

Is bab thinking destructor is softclaiming something? That's all I can think of where : bab might think it would be beneficial to scum (if there are two left) for destructor to claim straight out.

[Talitha]

Let's have one on this page...

destructor (1)

- Guardian

Guardian (1)

- destructor

Not voting (4): BridgesandBaloons, Matt_S, Sethaniel, ting =)

4 votes to lynch.

As B&B has mentioned, he's away on vacation and probably will not have internet access for 2 weeks. No luck getting a temp replacement yet. But you guys are all wonderful and have displayed super-awesome patience during the game so far... so if everyone is happy to just wait for B&B to get back, then I am happy too. Feel free to keep playing/posting/voting without him, but I won't be strict about participation over the next couple of weeks.

[ting =)]

I think I'll wait for everyone to come back before doing anything. It's obvious that today's lynch should be either guardian or destructor. We should wait till guardian is around.

[Matt_S]

I'm still here, but I can't think of anything to add. I think a Guardian lynch has a better expected outcome.

[Guardian]

I am still on vacation, but got internet access and figured I'd say hi.

Only a page to catch up on...

It seems people are starting to think I should be lynched based on expected utility.

That doesn't make a lot of sense, because you are saying if I am town, probably only one scum, if I am scum, probably two scum.

If it is possible that there are two scum, as you are asserting, what if I am really a tracker and there are two scum left? Lynching me loses the game.

Lynching me based off of half thought through assumptions about whether there are two or one scum left is not a great idea. We should instead lynch destructor.

I don't know if I have time to quote things and respond to them. After checking in all my games, and my personal e-mail, if I still have computer time I'll do that.

Summary:
I'm town, lynch destructor.

[Matt_S]

I believe that lynching destructor is more likely to end up as a loss. Lynching you first makes sense to me.

[Guardian]

I believe that lynching destructor is more likely to end up as a loss. Lynching you first makes sense to me.

why, other than expected outcome?

[Guardian]

Also, in re-reading, I don't see that much to respond to except what destructor wrote... and I don't really see a reason to respond to him as I don't have to convince HIM of anything, he knows he's lying scum.

If there's anything you guys want me to respond to or explain let me know. Otherwise just let's get on with lynching destructor.

[Matt_S]

I believe that lynching destructor is more likely to end up as a loss. Lynching you first makes sense to me.

why, other than expected outcome?

Why is using expected outcome bad? I don't see that great of a difference between your scumminess, so the guy whose lynch appears to have better odds of leading to a win should be lynched.

Guardian, why did you target destructor anyways?

I'm going to request a mass claim here, but first I'd like people's opinions.

[Guardian]

I believe that lynching destructor is more likely to end up as a loss. Lynching you first makes sense to me.

why, other than expected outcome?

Why is using expected outcome bad? I don't see that great of a difference between your scumminess, so the guy whose lynch appears to have better odds of leading to a win should be lynched.

It seems people are starting to think I should be lynched based on expected utility.

That doesn't make a lot of sense, because you are saying if I am town, probably only one scum, if I am scum, probably two scum.

If it is possible that there are two scum, as you are asserting, what if I am really a tracker and there are two scum left? Lynching me loses the game.

Lynching me based off of half thought through assumptions about whether there are two or one scum left is not a great idea. We should instead lynch destructor.

Guardian, why did you target destructor anyways?

With investigative roles, I make it a habit of targeting players I am least sure of.

If I got destructor 'did something', that would change my outlook. Seeing Sethaniel or ting=) do something wouldn't really change my actions much -- so why target them?

I'm pretty flabbergasted that you are planning to lynch me and haven't seen that I responded to both these points already.

I'm going to request a mass claim here, but first I'd like people's opinions.

This is not a bad suggestion.

[Matt_S]

I'm pretty flabbergasted that you are planning to lynch me and haven't seen that I responded to both these points already.

I missed the thing about investigating people, but I've already seen your speech about how optimizing the chance of winning is apparently bad. You haven't said that I've miscalculated the expected outcomes, just that I shouldn't. That doesn't make sense. So can you give any links to support your investigating habits?

[ting =)]

Is everyone back from holiday yet?

[destructor]

Everyone but Bab.

Guardian, just because you don't have to convince me doesn't mean others won't learn something from your responses to my posts. You're obviously avoiding answering them.

[Sethaniel]

If we really are down to only one scum, then I'm okay with a massclaim.

Who do we let decide the order of claiming, if we go for it?

[ting =)]

I think the people under most suspicion should claim first. If they go last, they can plan their claim. Since there's no agreement on who is actually the most suspicious, I propose the people with votes on them/under attack claim first.

If no one disagrees, I think those are guardian, destructor and you Seth.

I think we should wait for bab though.