Mini #553: Over!

[Guardian]

Guardian, just because you don't have to convince me doesn't mean others won't learn something from your responses to my posts. You're obviously avoiding answering them.

No one's indicated any desire to see me respond to you except you.

If they want to hear responses, I will maybe go through and respond. If you only want to hear responses, I'm definitely not going to bother.

BTW, I am still on vacation, for about 5 more days.

[ting =)]

I am now henceforth indicating my desire to see you respond to destructor.




I don't mind waiting till you get back though.

[Guardian]

I'm pretty flabbergasted that you are planning to lynch me and haven't seen that I responded to both these points already.

I missed the thing about investigating people, but I've already seen your speech about how optimizing the chance of winning is apparently bad. You haven't said that I've miscalculated the expected outcomes, just that I shouldn't. That doesn't make sense.

Look.

You are saying we should lynch me, because if I am scum, then there are definitely 2 scum left. This assumes that there can be two scum left.

If there can be two scum left, and I am town, lynching me loses instantly.

So, you were wrong, and lynching me to prevent losing to a two man scum group with me in it would be quite foolish, and I've seen little other reasoning lately from anyone but desperate destructor about why I've been suspicious, and if a two man scum group is plausible it is just as plausible that destructor is in a two man scum group as the notion that I would be in one (except that I'm NOT in a scum group).

So can you give any links to support your investigating habits?

No.

I don't waste time and effort meta-gaming other players, never-mind myself. Nevertheless, I don't think I've ever been an investigative role in any game that has finished, even if I were to bother to do the digging. My wiki has links to some old games I played in, before I got lazy cataloging, if you want to look through and see where I might have been an investigative role.

I also believe I read this philosophy and/or debated it with someone in some game or in mafia discussion. No idea where, but if you want to look through my thousands of post, happy hunting!

[Guardian]

I am now henceforth indicating my desire to see you respond to destructor.

What would you gain from such a response?

Why do you believe you would gain that?

[Sethaniel]

So, Guardian says he won't respond to destructor unless someone else indicates a desire to hear Guardian's response. Ting says he'd like to hear it, and Guardian turns around and starts asking Ting why.

I want to hear Guardian's response to destructor, too. It seems really odd that Guardian is so adamantly refusing.

[ting =)]

What would you gain from such a response?

Insight on why you don't want to answer.

Why do you believe you would gain that?

Because you answer.

[Guardian]

I don't want to answer because it will take a lot of time, and I don't think it will be that productive.

Now you turn it around on me and say it is some great mystery as to why I don't want to answer and must be hiding something. Nothing could be further from the case. I am lazy and don't think it will be very useful, and I don't want to bother.

Maybe I will, but most of it is just line after line of rubbish that I don't want to bother replying to, and I know even more certainly that it is rubbish because I know it is coming from scum.

[Matt_S]

Look.

You are saying we should lynch me, because if I am scum, then there are definitely 2 scum left. This assumes that there can be two scum left.

If there can be two scum left, and I am town, lynching me loses instantly.

So, you were wrong, and lynching me to prevent losing to a two man scum group with me in it would be quite foolish, and I've seen little other reasoning lately from anyone but desperate destructor about why I've been suspicious, and if a two man scum group is plausible it is just as plausible that destructor is in a two man scum group as the notion that I would be in one (except that I'm NOT in a scum group).

You're missing something somewhere. It's NOT equally plausible for you and destructor being part of a two-man scum group. If you're scum, then you ARE in a two man scum group. If destructor's scum, then he could still be alone. A destructor mislynch ENDS THE GAME. A Guardian mislynch can potentially get us to another day, and if it does then we win. Now, let's assume that only one of you two is scum, .5 probability for you and .5 for destructor. Let's call the probability of a two man scum group x, where x is greater than .5. The events of you being scum and of there being two scum left are not independant. If you're scum, the probability of there being a two man scum group left is 1. If destructor is scum, the probability of there being a two man scum group left is 2x-1. Unless x is 1, you have a higher chance of being deadly scum than destructor.

And Imat gives plenty of reasons for you to be more probable scum than destructor. Now answer destructor.

[destructor]

Re: Massclaim.
I think it's lazy. Why not just look at Guardian's hammer, his (inconsistent) claim and see how the evidence points to him being scum? Also consider the situation we're in: LYLO. He's trying to mislynch me for the win. If we massclaim, we'll be giving information away to his scum-buddy.

Ok, fine, so look at me too, lol. But I oppose a massclaim on the basis that there is enough evidence that outs Guardian as is and massclaiming will only reveal info that needn't be revealed.

Also, from what I can tell, the main reason I'm even considered one of the most suspect right now is because of Guardian's claim (which I know is fake and have tried to explain why in my previous posts) and not because of any case based on my content.

If the majority of us want to go ahead with the claim, then I'll do it. But I don't think it's needed right now.

[ting =)]

I would like a claim from you, destructor. There's no reason not to anymore.

@Guardian
I don't think it's fair for you to judge on your own what will, or will not be useful for everyone. You're dismissing his case, and pretty much just holding on to your claim that you saw him nk. You should know what it looks like from everyone else's perspective.

[destructor]

I would like a claim from you, destructor. There's no reason not to anymore.

From my point of view, I think the fact there there will still be scum alive after today (assuming we don't mislynch and lose the game) is a reason not to. I would say that a massclaim at this point will probably benefit scum more than town.

Do you think my guilt being pushed by someone who could be, so far as the town knows and in fact evidence point towards, fake-claiming scum should provide reasonable cause for doubt? If Guardian, with his history in this game, hadn't claimed as he did today, would you still want me to claim?

[ting =)]

Yes. Humor me. I'll vote guardian when you claim.

[Sethaniel]

Even if we don't massclaim, I think destructor should. (I'll claim too, if I'm still high on the suspicion list, and people want to hear it.)

[ting =)]

Yes, I'd like that too. Des first though I think. Today's lynch is clearly between him and guardian.

[destructor]

Just to let you know, I'm waiting for Matt and Bab to give their own thoughts.

ting, I'm unsure of why you're pushing for my claim. You said you'd vote Guardian after I claimed. Does that mean you already think he's scum? If so, why not vote for him now? Can you see how me claiming will do anything to change your read of Guardian?

[ting =)]

Yeah, I'm waiting for bab to get back too, which is why I wasn't really pushing it yet.

You said you'd vote Guardian after I claimed. Does that mean you already think he's scum?

Yes.

If so, why not vote for him now?

Will a vote from me now be any different than a vote from me after you claim?

Can you see how me claiming will do anything to change your read of Guardian?

Who said my wanting you to claim had anything to do with Guardian?

[destructor]

So... why

do

you want me to claim?

[destructor]

So... why

do

you want me to claim?

[ting =)]

Maybe I'm just curious about something.

[ting =)]

Why

don't

you want to claim?

I'm not the only one who expressed interest.

[destructor]

This, especially the last sentence:

From my point of view, I think the fact there there will still be scum alive after today (assuming we don't mislynch and lose the game) is a reason not to. I would say that a massclaim at this point will probably benefit scum more than town.

Do you disagree?

[ting =)]

Yes. It's what made me curious to begin with.

[Matt_S]

I don't see how a destructor claim today will be any worse than a destructor claim tomorrow, and the claim today has benefits seeing as you are the alternative to a Guardian lynch. I recommend claiming today.

[ting =)]

Awesomeness. That's everybody for it. Well, minus vacation people.

[destructor]

Ok, so I count ting, Matt and Seth for my claim. I've said what I have to say about it, but I'll wait until Bab gets back and adds his thoughts before going ahead with it.