Mini 586 - Blood Red Mafia - Game Over!

[goborage]

Shit, I rule. Protected SoW. Bow down please.

[Greasy Spot]

Shit, I rule. Protected SoW. Bow down please.

Well unfortunately that doesn't help much. I doubt anyone would argue that SoW wasn't the most town player among us.

[goborage]

Why are you raining on my parade?

[Macavenger]

I'm having trouble believing scum would have been willing to play outguess the claimed doc on such an obvious target. OTOH, nokilling 2 nights in a row to support a doc claim is also really questionable.

Greasy or gobo today still, obviously. I think I still favor gobo.

[populartajo]

I told you not to lynch Coheed.
Goboroge is the obvious play.

[Greasy Spot]

And I told you were the obvious lynch, but no one listened to me either.

[Greasy Spot]

EBWOP - And I told

them

you were the obvious lynch, but no one listened to me either.

[populartajo]

EBWOP - And I told

them

you were the obvious lynch, but no one listened to me either.

Your accusations have a wrong fact, Greasy. Could you please reread the game and correct it? I didnt defend Darla D2.
Darla could impress me as a player if what she did before she died was to bus you but I dont see it.
Goborage protecting two days in a row seems slightly suspicious. I mean, why did the scum didnt kill him?

[Macavenger]

Goborage protecting two days in a row seems slightly suspicious. I mean, why did the scum didnt kill him?

Because if he's town, scum needs him alive as a mislynch, obviously. What I have more trouble buying is if he's town, why scum didn't kill someone like Amor last night, who's not on the table for a lynch but would be unlikely to draw protection. I suppose that argument applies to if goborage is scum too actually, so either way, the last scum is really screwing up his kill choices right now.

May as well

Vote: goborage

at this point. I have reason to believe everyone else is town right now.

[Shepherd_of_Wolves]

Personally, I believe Goborage still. It is way too foolish to let two nights go by with out a lynch if he were a scum. My guess was, it would be my night kill, or it would be Gobo, since he is an announced power role. I strongly believe their is a doctor in the game, and as Gobo has not been counter claimed, I think he lives. Unless something really apparent happens, I do not intend to join town against Gobo, I would rather go with a no lynch. To me he is obviously a no lynch today.

Look, if he is the doc, then he has verified three innocent people, Macavenger, Me (SoW), and Himself (Gobo). So, that leaves us with three unverified persons Popular, Amor, and Grease.

Grease is my lynch choice today. He is mixing games together, which bothers me, because he claims such and never gets to the questions. He has done it two or three times now. He is presenting untrue statements on Popular.

More to come later.

Vote: Grease

[Shepherd_of_Wolves]

EBWOP: "two nights go by with out a lynch" should read "two nights go by without a kill"

[Shepherd_of_Wolves]

To Mac, who posted while I was writing. There is one obvious reason I would have come off as a night kill choice even last night, reread. I will not mention it until more discussion happens.

[goborage]

I am also leaning towards a GS lynch but I'll wait for him to post before I vote.

[Cogito Ergo Scum]

Votecount

goborage (1) - Macavenger

Greasy Spot (1) - Shepherd_of_Wolves

With 6 alive, it's 4 to lynch!

[populartajo]

Personally, I believe Goborage still. It is way too foolish to let two nights go by with out a lynch if he were a scum. My guess was, it would be my night kill, or it would be Gobo, since he is an announced power role. I strongly believe their is a doctor in the game, and as Gobo has not been counter claimed, I think he lives. Unless something really apparent happens, I do not intend to join town against Gobo, I would rather go with a no lynch. To me he is obviously a no lynch today.

Look, if he is the doc, then he has verified three innocent people, Macavenger, Me (SoW), and Himself (Gobo). So, that leaves us with three unverified persons Popular, Amor, and Grease.

Grease is my lynch choice today. He is mixing games together, which bothers me, because he claims such and never gets to the questions. He has done it two or three times now. He is presenting untrue statements on Popular.

More to come later.

Vote: Grease

This is a nice post.
The only problem is that I dont see Greasy Spot as Darla's scumpartner. I mean, you know when you're scum and you're pressured as hell, what do you do? Go for the easy target to save your own ass. Greasy was the easy target even before we went hard against her. Gobo was conveniently supporting that lynch also but this brings WIFOM to the table.
Again I could be wrong and its possible Darla went for the bus strategy but knowing her I doubt it. She was enjoying this game. Could it be possible that Greasy had coached her to bus him in that case?
........
Anyways, this "doc protection" leaves Amor, Greasy and me. What do people think of Amor?
......
Now, Gobo. If he's the real doc then he'll die eventually, right?. SoW is right about him confirming already two guys. Too lucky doctor? Bad play as scum? I dont know but Im sure we'll know sooner or later.

[Amor]

Well now I am just kind of confused. Like SoW said, I can't see scum no-killing 2 nights in a row just to back up a doc claim, so I'm going to have to take gobo at his word for now. That leaves (from my perspective) tajo and GS. I'm going to reread, focusing on those two, before I make a decision.

[populartajo]

Also it seems strange that scum picked N3 Riceball (a notable lurking player) and now picks such obvious "protect me" targets as Mac and Shepherd and not Amor (an excelent target with doc around).
I can see Goborage messing with our minds right now.

[Macavenger]

To Mac, who posted while I was writing. There is one obvious reason I would have come off as a night kill choice even last night, reread. I will not mention it until more discussion happens.

I'm not seeing this, and really want it explained.

Thinking about what Shepherd has said a bit more, I can see a possible Greasy Lynch. I want Shepherd to explain the above first, though. Also want to see Shepherd explain why he so firmly believes goborage's claim despite all the evidence pointing to him.

tajo - Amor is very likely town based on his own play. He contributed well to scumhunting early on, and pretty much tunnel visioned Darla for the first three days, at least with his vote. I consider him about one level above Shepherd and myself right now in scumminess, and would lynch you well before him.

[Macavenger]

Add reply to tajo's last post, which I somehow didn't see while writing the above: I'm still guessing scum killed RBT because they read him as a cop with an investigation on Darla.

[Shepherd_of_Wolves]

Mac, I will mention it now. You and Coheed both mentioned the idea that all power roles where known and that no more should be expected. This confirmed you and Coheed as villagers. So, I come along and decline the idea that all power roles are up. That leaves me unconfirmed in what role I have.

I believe gobo because it would be incredibly risky to do two nights with no kill. Maybe the first night, which I did not believe in the first place. But, not two nights with this many town alive. It is especially foolish for him to do a no kill after town was so strongly against him. You or Popular would have been his target.

So, I am starting to think that my trifecta was correct. Grease or Popular are my top choices. I think Popular know that both Grease and Darla made scum look terrible on day 1 and the only option he had period was to total oppose Darla the rest of the game. So, My two picks are between popular and Grease.

[Greasy Spot]

Grease is my lynch choice today. He is mixing games together, which bothers me, because he claims such and never gets to the questions. He has done it two or three times now. He is presenting untrue statements on Popular.

2 or 3 times? I wrote something from another game 1 time. I don't know where you got 2 or 3 times. I haven't presented any truths on populartajo, I have presented my findings and my interpretations. I have never presented any untruths.

[populartajo]

Grease is my lynch choice today. He is mixing games together, which bothers me, because he claims such and never gets to the questions. He has done it two or three times now. He is presenting untrue statements on Popular.

2 or 3 times? I wrote something from another game 1 time. I don't know where you got 2 or 3 times. I haven't presented any truths on populartajo, I have presented my findings and my interpretations. I have never presented any untruths.

Can you show where I defended Darla D2?

[Macavenger]

I've spent some time today rereading and thinking about this game.

Obvious conclusions first: not that this should surprise anyone, but SoW and I are fully confirmed town. goborage is either a doctor with successful protections on us, clearing us, or he's lying and is the last scum. Either way, we're both town.

I still believe Amor is also very likely to be town. I wish he'd post a bit more, but his early game play is solidly townish. He contributed original thoughts and hunted for scum. He also pushed against Darla every day until she was lynched, and made no real effort toward getting anyone else lynched, ever, until she was dead. If that was bussing, well, kudos. Darla also treats him in a very similar manner to how she treated several other townies Day 1, including myself and coheed, with the suspect, vote, unvote after a post pattern.

I still don't see a strongly compelling reason to think Greasy Spot is scum. A lot of his play is fairly anti-town, but depressingly consistent with his normal town play. I still think the way DBE interacted with him was not bussing. He was an easy target and she was trying hard to get him lynched, and came close to succeeding. Bussing your last buddy really isn't a good plan when you're also circling the drain as she was. I pretty solidly believe she was trying to get a scummy townie lynched to buy her team another day.

I've thought about goborage's claim and protections more recently. Giving up two kills isn't specifically a bad play as scum, or more specifically, giving up the second one wasn't, because it doesn't take the town any farther away from LyLo. The first no-kill happened with 7 alive, giving us the possibility of 2 mislynches before Lylo, as opposed to the one we'd have had if a kill had gone through leaving 6 alive. The second nokill, leaving 6 instead of 5, is fairly irrelevant, since we'll just lynch once and, if we get it wrong, probably no lynch to go from 4 to 3, giving the kill back. Giving up the first kill to back up a doc claim is more questionable than the second, particularly since he probably wouldn't have known for certain that he would have to claim that day. What doesn't make sense about it is confirming two different townies, if he were giving up kills to back up his claim. The fact that he's now confirmed both SoW and I is a terrible play if he's scum, as he's pretty much now guaranteed that he'd have to go through endgame with a confirmed townie, which scum hate. If we lynch wrong today, scum get a kill, we probably no lynch, and another kill brings us to three. However, goborage couldn't reasonably kill off both SoW and I if he's fake claiming - he could get one with the excuse "I protected the other" easily enough, but if the second also died, the remaining townies would be all over him.

Thinking about this in these terms makes me more inclined to believe goborage's claim than I have been.

This brings me to the main subject of this post, populartajo. I've been thinking for a while that the original trifecta from Day 1 was really too good to be true, but that's not honestly an argument against it. Looking over things again, I'm finding it to have a lot more merit to it still than I've been thinking lately.

First, there's SoW's original trifecta post. This was great reading at the time, and really looks nothing but better now that DBE and Malthusis have both come up scum.

tajo spends basically all of Day 1 mounting a massive chainsaw defense of Malthusis and, to a lesser extent, DBE. He mainly attacks my arguments, and also demands cases against DBE from people attacking her. He very rarely does any direct defending, usually just to DBE by claiming she's a newbie, but spends the entire day trying to get attention elsewhere.

You have a point here. I'd sincerely be in your ass and pushing your lynch if Malthusis hadn't decided to give up against your weak logic, lurk and ask for a replacement.

So, what was he doing all of Day 1 then? He spent the entire day voting me and arguing with me about my methods. If this isn't what he was doing, what is?

It's worth noting that in the majority of his posts, all tajo does is argue with me, with the occassional one line defense of Darla or vague insinuation against SoW. There wasn't any other real scumhunting, just the argument. I still spent most of the day arguing with him, but also find time to do some scumhunting on DBE, Amor, goborage, and coheed, off the top of my head. tajo didn't.

He defends DBE Day 1 because she's a newbie, but then there's this:

No. This is only the third game I joined on this site, up to 5 total counting two I've joined since then. I haven't exactly had a lot of opportunities, especially since three of the games I either replaced into or didn't have a typical random voting phase. It's also far from a tactic I would use every game in any case; it's something I'd only use when I already thought a player was being too jumpy.

So, do you consider yourself a relative newbie? Then how do you know exactly what kind of reactions scum can give?

Which is basically some combination of the appeal to authority fallacy and attacking me because of some level of newness. Good double standard and all around poor logic.

Another thing I'd like to point out here is less concrete, but a product of growing experience. As of Day 1 in this game, I'd never been scum on this site. I have completed a game as scum since then (see Newbie 580, I replaced in at the start of Day 2 - Amor should be quite familiar with it already ), and have a better feel for how playing that side works. I can comment that one of the most frustrating things as scum is seeing townies make correct arguments and not understanding why. The scum in this game were very likely in this state Day 1, seeing their buddy Malthusis getting tagged and run up starting on page 2. tajo's play Day 1 seems fairly indicative of this, where he just keeps repeating the same arguments over and over despite getting nowhere, along with his repeated assertions that he didn't trust SoW without any real basis. Having played in a similar situation, I can now say this looks to me like scum trying to fight back against an argument they don't totally understand, and have no real logical reason to oppose. It's notable that tajo's vague "I don't like this guy" statements about SoW stopped around the time he and DBE got out of the spotlight Day 2, well before SoW was considered confirmed town to the extent that he is now.

Also in this vein, tajo questions the trifecta argument a couple of times on Day 1, mainly just suggesting that it's too broad, too perfect to be real. This isn't a good argument against it, and reeks of caught scum trying to undermine the arguments against his group with anything he can think of.

This is also part of the reason I'm looking back at Day 1 so much - knowing now that town basically caught two scum Day 1 for reasons that looked a little weird at the time, I definitely seeing scum being flustered and more likely to slip up on Day 1 here.

There's also tajo's rapid flip on DBE at the beginning of Day 2. This has been brought up before. The fact is that the points he was raising to defend her Day 1 (mainly newb flagging) were still entirely applicable after malthusis flipped scum. Yet, suddenly she's obvscum. At the time, I thought he might have been a malthusis buddy trying to get an easy lynch on a townie (part of the reason I got distracted from DBE D2), which was obviously not the case. Still, I don't think this looks good. All indications at the start of Day 2 were that Darla was up for a pretty quick lynch. If tajo tries to stop this and DBE flips scum, he's gonna look extremely bad for defending both scum, and probably get run up in very short order Day 3, which is game over. Bussing is really his only play there, if he's scum with her, and I still don't see a townish reason for that flip.

Looking at more recent play, tajo seems very eager to lynch in the last couple days. While I somewhat agreed with the sentiment at the time, his initial Day 4 post just voting for goborage "obv obv" seemed a bit odd, considering that he hadn't really made an argument about gobo the previous day, as I had. This also reminds me a tactic I used as scum - townies coming up with links between your partner and a townie are horribly useful. I pounced on such a link as scum, because if I get the townie lynched, my partner looks better, and if I have to bus my partner, I can drive a townie lynch afterwards without being accused of setting up a lynch. The latter could be what tajo is doing here.

Then today there's his "well, let's look at these unconfirmed people - what do you think of Amor?" which rubs me the wrong way. It struck me as "please look at anyone but me!"

Thinking back to my scum play, I can also see Darla's omission of goborage from her list of players near the end of Day 3 as a framing tactic. I similarly left someone that a couple players thought might be my partner out of an argument I had to make in a LyLo argument there, to try to frame him in case I lost. The more I'm looking at this, the more I'm seeing scum tactics of DBE and tajo trying to bus DBE and frame goborage as her buddy.

I think I had a couple more things to say, but this post is already gigantic and my brain is starting to fry. While Greasy's argument basically sucks, after review I agree with him that we should be going back and looking at the original trifecta again.

Unvote; Vote: populartajo

[populartajo]

Sigh. Ok Mac. I wish you could have posted this some hours ago when I had more time. But Ill try to explain (again) all my play in this game.

D1. I admit it again. I was wrong. Many factors here.

a) I cited NG499 where IHscum tried a trap (kinda reaction tester) to catch newbies. I was one in that game and since then I have a bad feeling when people call scum someone for reacting like that. I admit again the case is not totally similar but I sincerely felt that repetition feeling when you jumped against Malthusis. In fact the quote youy're bringing is exactly how I feel about him. If he hadnt acted that scummy (lurking, defending himself using my ideas) I would have totally pushed your lynch.

b) I have a tendence for protecting newbies. I simply cant avoid it. I guess they are more vulnerable to attacks and have more difficulies to defend against "good" cases. I say "good" because you know everyone as a townie can make a mistake (specially a newbie) and a good scum player could destroy him/her for that. That was the case I thought when trying to read SoW. Although he had the townsperson title at that time I felt he had more experience and his enormous attacks were what I felt his scum tactic to destroy Darla and Malthusis. Add this to the fact that I wasnt sure Malthusis was totally scum and that Darla was also defending him, and you can at least try to understand my thinking.

BONUS NOTE : I dont like WIFOM very much but do you sincerely think that if I were scum I would have defended both of my scumpartners D1, and also knowing that prob one of them was the lynch of the day?

D2. Since I knew Malthusis allignement, I realized that I was wrong and that Mac was apparently right.

a) Knowing Malthusis was scum the obvious play was to reread the game and find out the connections he had D1. I did and found out, tragically, that his relationship with Darla was too scummy for my taste. Check my big posts for details.

b) Now, Mac you say you dont find a townie motivation for going against Darla D2. What about a townie that finds a decent case?

BONUS NOTE : Now that I check quickly I remember I had also thought Goborage was a remote possible second decent suspect. He subtly defended all the trifecta in some posts D1. I have to say that I started to have a bad feeling about him since he voted for me, the easy target, besides Darla, D2.


FINAL CONCLUSIONS.

Now its true that if Gob is the doc then he shouldnt be lynched until later stages of the game. I know this. I even unvoted him yesterday trying to find out if he indeed was one. If he's scum then kudos, he found a decent way to stay alive until the endgame but it will be very difficult (but not impossible) to win this game with Mac and/or SoW around.

My asking for opinions about Amor is an honest expresion of my impotence of not finding more decent cases other than Gobo's one. SoW and Mac are confirmed townies; I thought Greasy-DBE seemed improbable and I know Im a Villager. Sincerely, I was waiting for attacks since it was the obvious reaction at this state of the game. I had to pay my mistakes some day but I wish you could understand what I was thinking when I did that or that.

BONUS NOTE : About Greasy Spot. Im going to be sincere with you guys but as Ive stated before I didnt see Greasy-Darla. The reason Ive also said it before. I didnt find Darlascum busing a very mislynchable candidate. However, theres still that possibility and at this state of the game we have to look for everyone. If you want my opinion, Im starting to see Greasy as an individual character. His attacks against me are a decent townie reacion but a)they have a wrong fact and b)this can be seen as an attempt to go agains the easy target : me.

Now, we also know Darla was capable of busing Malthusis at the end of D1. So Mac if you say scum killed Rice beacuse they probably thought he was the cop then DBE was a decent investigation, right? What about if Greasy Spot coached DBE and told her that her play would only be to bus him? As much as she liked this game I can see her going for the group as she did when she defended Malthusis D1.

Now take in count this is a possiblity as the last scum is probably playing a good game.

[Greasy Spot]

Can you show where I defended Darla D2?

No I can't, you were too busy defending yourself. My original argument against you was that you were still defending Darla on Day 2 and then started bussing her later in the day. I guess all those posts ran together. It turns out you did not defend her any after day 1, you started bussing her immediately on day 2. Sorry for the misrepresentation.

While Greasy's argument basically sucks, after review I agree with him that we should be going back and looking at the original trifecta again.

How does my argument suck when you just said what I already said 2 pages ago? I naturally agree with everything you said however.

vote: populartajo