Mafia 78: Meta Breaking Mafia 1 - Game over!

[shaft.ed]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?

Hmm... Unless it's you + peg of course. Sorry, spoke too soon.

which is impossible given the conflicting cop claims.

[Surye]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?

Hmm... Unless it's you + peg of course. Sorry, spoke too soon.

which is impossible given the conflicting cop claims.

Not true at all. The possibility of GF is not eliminated is it?

[shaft.ed]

I'd rather lynch MM at this point. Is anyone ever going to look at my post with numbers in it?

I looked at it. The problem with is that it assumes we only have raw statistics to work from. But there are many unquantifiable aspects to this situation. All your numbers are saying is that there is scum in us 3, and them 2. But even this isn't 100%, as maybe both cops are valid, and the scum is you and peg. As you said, cop bus is very unlikely here, so the odds that if both scum are on one side or the other is higher on the 3 man side. Also, I trust you're town more then I trust peg, but I'm not 100% convinced MM is scum. So for me, all the overlap lies on PEG, which is why I feel safest there.

I see your point here. Thanks for addressing it.

[shaft.ed]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?

Hmm... Unless it's you + peg of course. Sorry, spoke too soon.

which is impossible given the conflicting cop claims.

Not true at all. The possibility of GF is not eliminated is it?

How did Tar get the guilty on MM?

[Surye]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?

Hmm... Unless it's you + peg of course. Sorry, spoke too soon.

which is impossible given the conflicting cop claims.

Not true at all. The possibility of GF is not eliminated is it?

How did Tar get the guilty on MM?

Ah, good point, sorry I missed that. Lets get some others in this discussion.

Unvote

while we are talking so no hammer happens.

[Surye]

Okay, it looks like I was overlooking some issues with possible combinations, and your numbers now make sense shaft.ed. I'm willing to lynch MM, though I do still think peg has to be scum. Mostly because now that we know you + peg can't be, you're clearly not protecting a buddy, and add that to your past town play, I am confident you're town.

Tar, I know you wanted this too, so I think we can reach a consensus.

Vote: MM

It'll be curious is MM tries to get a vote back on peg or not...

[shaft.ed]

That's the problem there really aren't any "others" besides us. If you're scum you've done a nice job of snowing me. I think from your perspective you ought to be able to see I'm confirmed as town. Actually am I confirmed from any perspective? I don't like to get ahead of myself because I always screw these things up but:

shaft.ed + mason cannot be scum because of Tar's guilty.

shaft.ed + MM/Tar cannot be scum because I would have hammered PEG. So That makes me confirmed?

So if we lynch right from the masons, the other mason dies during the Night Phase and I'm left to pick between the cops.

If we lynch right from the cops, the other cop dies during the night phase and I'm left to pick between the masons. Note that if Tar had investigated a mason this scenario would obviously be the correct one as it only requires one proper lynch.

Final option is that MM is an insane cop and not paranoid and has thus cleared PEG by his investigation. Is it likely he would be revealed as specifically "insane cop" or just as cop upon death? This would also require a Tar lynch to be the correct choice. And Surye would then have to bus his partner something that seems unreasonable as PEG is not here EVER!! I think this route ought to be abandoned.

[Surye]

That's the problem there really aren't any "others" besides us. If you're scum you've done a nice job of snowing me. I think from your perspective you ought to be able to see I'm confirmed as town. Actually am I confirmed from any perspective? I don't like to get ahead of myself because I always screw these things up but:

shaft.ed + mason cannot be scum because of Tar's guilty.

shaft.ed + MM/Tar cannot be scum because I would have hammered PEG. So That makes me confirmed?

So if we lynch right from the masons, the other mason dies during the Night Phase and I'm left to pick between the cops.

If we lynch right from the cops, the other cop dies during the night phase and I'm left to pick between the masons. Note that if Tar had investigated a mason this scenario would obviously be the correct one as it only requires one proper lynch.

Final option is that MM is an insane cop and not paranoid and has thus cleared PEG by his investigation. Is it likely he would be revealed as specifically "insane cop" or just as cop upon death? This would also require a Tar lynch to be the correct choice. And Surye would then have to bus his partner something that seems unreasonable as PEG is not here EVER!! I think this route ought to be abandoned.

That makes you confirmed, or cocky

But yea, like I said, from my perspective, if we lynch the right cop tonight, we win, as peg will be all that's left. From your perspective, you'd have to choose between me and peg. I think that gives us a fairly good chance to win. The only issue I can see is if you don't want to choose PEG, I don't have much to build a case on him, as he's been non-existant this entire game.

[shaft.ed]

Okay, it looks like I was overlooking some issues with possible combinations, and your numbers now make sense shaft.ed. I'm willing to lynch MM, though I do still think peg has to be scum. Mostly because now that we know you + peg can't be, you're clearly not protecting a buddy, and add that to your past town play, I am confident you're town.

Tar, I know you wanted this too, so I think we can reach a consensus.

Vote: MM

It'll be curious is MM tries to get a vote back on peg or not...

I guess if I am confirmed my math doesn't make sense any more. Cause the town-side mason is ~100% certain his partner is scum so the higher odds lynch for you is your partner, just like the town-side cop is ~100% sure the other cop is scum.

I'm going to hold off my vote for a while but at this point I'm leaning towards the MM-PEG scum pair. With the level of lurking going on, that's likely my only choice anyway

[Machiavellian-Mafia]

I'm really sorry to say but I'm at this camp right now that is supposed to have internet, but there has been huge internet problems. I will be back on July 27th-28th, so I'll leave it up to Guardian if I need to be replaced.

[shaft.ed]

Would it be unreasonable to ask for an extension then?

[Guardian]

Due to MM's and PEG's chronic inactivity and in both cases pretty much request for replacement,

I am going to extend deadline indefinitely, and replace both of them

. In principle I strongly dislike deviating from the planned auto-deadlines, but in this case I don't think that two players lack of access should help determine the outcome of the game in its final stages.

I believe stark and Skruffs will be able to replace, but I will replace in about a day from now; letting two players replace into a situation that was supposed to be right before deadline seems unfair. If either of them will be unable to replace, I'll look for another until I find one. I may or may not allow roles replacing in who can talk at night to communicate, and they may or may not have access to previous communication.

Once they replace in, expect deadline to be around a week.

[Guardian]

My estimation of the current VC:

peg[1]: tarhalindur
mm[1]: surye

not voting[3]: shaft.ed, peg, mm

[Surye]

Due to MM's and PEG's chronic inactivity and in both cases pretty much request for replacement,

I am going to extend deadline indefinitely, and replace both of them

. In principle I strongly dislike deviating from the planned auto-deadlines, but in this case I don't think that two players lack of access should help determine the outcome of the game in its final stages.

I believe stark and Skruffs will be able to replace, but I will replace in about a day from now; letting two players replace into a situation that was supposed to be right before deadline seems unfair. If either of them will be unable to replace, I'll look for another until I find one. I may or may not allow roles replacing in who can talk at night to communicate, and they may or may not have access to previous communication.

Once they replace in, expect deadline to be around a week.

Unvote

then.

[shaft.ed]

Guardian, thanks very much for understanding the situation. As much as I hate that two replacements have to come in at LyLo, it seemed unfair that the game be forced into one possible conclusion due to flaking.

Thanks

[Tarhalindur]

Thank you, Guardian.

The two possible situations which lead me to say 99.9% sure that MM is scum: paranoid daycop miller (good call, Surye!) and framer + other mafia power (framer scum mason or framer godfather; unlikely but possible)

In other news, shaft.ed just cleared himself of being the lynch for today as if he was paired scum he would have just won the game. If he is scum (which is now a rather low possibility) then he has to be the only member of his faction, in which case we deal with him tomorrow.

I'm pretty sure that the scum are the players formerly known as MM and pickem, Surye possible but somewhat unlikely (his Rosso PBPA looked fairly legit on my last read, and my gut tells me Surye isn't the kind of player who's likely to bus that heavily). I'm rereading now to check my conclusions.

Unvote, Vote: Machiavellian Mafia

because I know that vote is safe.

[shaft.ed]

I'm pretty sure that the scum are the players formerly known as MM and pickem, Surye possible but somewhat unlikely (his Rosso PBPA looked fairly legit on my last read, and my gut tells me Surye isn't the kind of player who's likely to bus that heavily). I'm rereading now to check my conclusions.

I had forgotten about the Rosso PBP. That's a good point. I'm a bit happier thinking Surye town at this point.

[pickemgenius]

Badass people are voting for me. *roll*

If me needing replaced needs to happen for all to be happy then go nuts.

[Surye]

Badass people are voting for me. *roll*

If me needing replaced needs to happen for all to be happy then go nuts.

Why do you come to this forum again?

[Guardian]

Skruffs replaces PEG
stark replaces M-M

since both replacing at the same time, who replaced who came from random.org

once both post I'll set a deadline, expect it to be about a week from right now!

[shaft.ed]

Thanks a ton for replacing guys. I realize jumping in at LyLo can be painful. I'll be gentle...for a while at least.

[stark]

Hah, thanks shaft.ed

I'm going to do a re-read tonight.

Straight up.

[Skruffs]

What the fudge kind of shingles is this granola.

[Skruffs]

And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.

Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?

Hmm... Unless it's you + peg of course. Sorry, spoke too soon.

which is impossible given the conflicting cop claims.

First things first, why would PEG know that shaft.ed is town?

[Skruffs]

Okay, my guess based on THIS page is that it is Tarhalindur and Surye. Apparently me and Surye are claimed masons now, and of course we don't know each other's alignment,s and apparently one of us has to be scum so she is trying to pusht hat is is me. Tarhalindur's pushing of Surye's suggestion of a paranoid day cop miller(?) reeks of two scums working with each other.

Who hs claimed cops, and what are their results on who?

Tar throwing a vote out basaed on their confidence ina nother player based on gut, while aso believeing that player for other reasons, is very suspicious. If one of mye and surye has to be scum, it has to be surye, but I'd like to see how we canme to that conclusion first. As ti stands (And I've read nothing) Surye trying to say I have to be scum and not entertaining other ideas suggests scum aiming for a mislynch. I'm not saying both copes are fake claiming but her assuming one of them is and trying to work with that (And that the other is not fake claiming) suggests she knows that one of them is telling the truth.

Can we have a sum up?