Mini 626 - Crew vs. Pigs - GAME OVER!!

[Ghyrt]

EBWOP:: Oops, I'd forgotten that Cass and Kison have already posted something since Ting's post. I guess this just leaves Chenshi.

[chenhsi]

Guess what?

[Ghyrt]

Guess what?

You just saved a bunch of money on your car insurance by switching to Geico?

[chenhsi]

I don't have a car.

[Matin]

I don't like teams or groups. It creates false dichotomies. I don't like to see anyone pushing the idea of groups either. As for the claim, I think if we have a cop this needs to be investigated, even if it seems like a waste of an investigation. I've actually never run into a situation like this before, and I have no idea what to really do. For now, I guess just keep on discussing and see what happens.

ftr...we've already been grouped below..

Also not a big fan of these early groupings as I've played in enough games to know that this generally only benefits scum

As far as I can see, the entity this benefits the most is darkdude, cause for nearly every "pro-town" talking point we can come up with, there is an equally "anti-town" point.

My base read is I don't think scum would do this unless they are pretty damn ballsy, so I believe him, but I'm going to try and view it as a null event for now..

<snip>

Reactions to your claim:

Chenshi,cass,kison - no opinion given/sitting on the fence.
ting - does not like.
raider, ennui, matin, ghyrt - believe

I am slightly wary of the people who haven't given an opinion on it. Especially kison. While chenshi and cass have both mentioned being 50-50 on it in some way, kison's post was vague and revealed nothing.

<snip>

[Matin]

oh, and

UNVOTE

since we are clearly out of random stage..

[darkdude]

Hm...I don't see what the fuss about camps is. I'm sure we know better than to judge people based on which perspective he/she had on a single event alone. Clearly it can't be that scum buddied up to form a group, so we shouldn't expect to base suspicion on groups.

[Kison]

I don't like teams or groups. It creates false dichotomies. I don't like to see anyone pushing the idea of groups either. As for the claim, I think if we have a cop this needs to be investigated, even if it seems like a waste of an investigation. I've actually never run into a situation like this before, and I have no idea what to really do. For now, I guess just keep on discussing and see what happens.

Unvote

Vote : Forbiddanlight

[raider8169]

Guess what?

Were you ever going to come back and say what you meant by this?

[ting =)]

It's not what they think about my WIFOM, it's about how they react in general.
*snip*
Yes, a few of the reasons I made the claim were beneficial to me alone, but I didn't see it harming anyone else, so improving scumhunting for a player, regardless myself or someone else, seems like a good choice. It just so happened that I couldn't think of any way to help other people scumhunt

It

is

harmful. If people decide to follow through with their thoughts on your claim, we'll end up with a long discussion that doesn't help us any.

I agree though, that it's generated discussion, and that the reactions are helpful.

@ raider

or a bad guy and does not show up on a cop's investigation.

is a big jump from nk immune. It's a completely different power entirely. Do you think it's plausible that he's

both

a godfather

and

bulletproof? An nk-immune-investigation-proof scum?

@ennui.
Up to you, really. Some people call wifom whenever they see it and then they just assume that that automatically reduces the case to nothing. It doesn't.

That said, you can't take wifom points at face value either. I tend to just ignore wifom unless my gut throws a hissy fit and decides to tear my head apart.

@ghyrt.

I would contend that this WIFOM is not the 50/50 kind of WIFOM that everyone's making it out to be.

I know that if I were scum, I probably wouldn't have the guts to make that kind of claim.

Its a circular argument on the surface, until you consider that darkdude is now the center of attention.

Scum generally doesn't want to be the center of attention

because they know their quotes can be mined for lies and otherwise behaviorally analyzed.

It

is

circular.

Any argument that starts with, 'But scum wouldn't...' will lead to, 'Ah, but that's exactly why he did it! It makes him look townie.'

If we keep following that, we'll just end up second guessing second guesses instead of looking at things up front. Which is why I'm chalking it up to a null tell.

I agree that the claim has been good for discussion though.

@raider.

This is why I would like everyone to agree one way or the other but I dont think that is going to happen.

I don't agree that a scum in one camp points to all the others being scum. How do you think all of us agreeing would help? It locks down our opinion of him, and it takes differences in opinion to generate discussion.

@ting grouped everyone.
No. Ting pointed out everyone's reaction. You

could

group everyone based on that if you want to, but you group everyone in your head at your own imperative.

[raider8169]

@ raider

or a bad guy and does not show up on a cop's investigation.

is a big jump from nk immune. It's a completely different power entirely. Do you think it's plausible that he's

both

a godfather

and

bulletproof? An nk-immune-investigation-proof scum?

IF he is the godfather the nk immune would be because he wouldnt pick himself to nightkill. If we had someone that could night kill then I think that would work. It would make for an interesting role but I think as other people said it just puts him in the spotlight and most scum dont like that.

@ raider.

This is why I would like everyone to agree one way or the other but I dont think that is going to happen.

I don't agree that a scum in one camp points to all the others being scum. How do you think all of us agreeing would help? It locks down our opinion of him, and it takes differences in opinion to generate discussion.

The idea behind it is that we wouldnt be group'd and everyone would come to an agreement for the time being. If darkdude's plan is to ever get going we would have to agree atleast for the time being not to lynch him so he can do this thing. If we are divided on that and people try to lynch him the scum can turn the tides towards their favor. This is why I would like to do it now instead of later. I dont know if this will work but I am open to other ideas.

[Ghyrt]

@ghyrt.

I would contend that this WIFOM is not the 50/50 kind of WIFOM that everyone's making it out to be.

I know that if I were scum, I probably wouldn't have the guts to make that kind of claim.

Its a circular argument on the surface, until you consider that darkdude is now the center of attention.

Scum generally doesn't want to be the center of attention

because they know their quotes can be mined for lies and otherwise behaviorally analyzed.

It

is

circular.

Any argument that starts with, 'But scum wouldn't...' will lead to, 'Ah, but that's exactly why he did it! It makes him look townie.'

If we keep following that, we'll just end up second guessing second guesses instead of looking at things up front. Which is why I'm chalking it up to a null tell.

I agree that the claim has been good for discussion though.

You're missing my point. This is NOT, I repeat, IS NOT, a case of "I-think-that-he-thinks-that-I-would-do-this-unless-he-thought-that-I-would-think-that......" By claiming, darkdude chose to be the center of attention and he probably knew that would happen. "WIFOM" is overused and should only apply when the two alternatives are equal in magnitude and have an equal chance of scum or town doing it. A hackneyed example of this would be a person claiming, "I'm town". This provides no information because town and scum would both claim it.

I still agree that we should treat it as a null tell for now; but I wanted to make it clear that rather seeing the claim in terms of 50/50, I think there's more like a 70-85% chance that darkdude is town.

[Matin]

@ raider

or a bad guy and does not show up on a cop's investigation.

is a big jump from nk immune. It's a completely different power entirely. Do you think it's plausible that he's

both

a godfather

and

bulletproof? An nk-immune-investigation-proof scum?

IF he is the godfather the nk immune would be because he wouldnt pick himself to nightkill. If we had someone that could night kill then I think that would work. It would make for an interesting role but I think as other people said it just puts him in the spotlight and most scum dont like that.

@Ting

I don't understand that jump there. The idea was offered that DarkDude may be some kind of godfather, so his role claim of "Unable to be Nightkilled" allows him to a) claim value to the town through a power role which would lessen the likelihood of being lynched b) draw attention to himself and theoretically draw an investigation that will return innocent c) allow him to explain later why a town power role hasn't been night killed

As Raider responded, if he's a godfather of some type who made this role up, his ability to avoid a NK would be based on the fact that he's actually picking who is NK'd and presumably wouldn't be picking himself. Why would we append the unable to be night killed claim onto the hypothesized godfather role? ...

[forbiddanlight]

Unvote
Vote : Forbiddanlight

Why? This has no reasoning.

FoS Kison

Oh yeah, random over and all, so

unvote Cass

Hm...I don't see what the fuss about camps is. I'm sure we know better than to judge people based on which perspective he/she had on a single event alone. Clearly it can't be that scum buddied up to form a group, so we shouldn't expect to base suspicion on groups.

You'd think, but people sometimes do it without realizing it. It's a psychological effect, which is why I'm against any groupings unless it's a clear scummish connection that can be proven right or wrong by a flip.


Anyway, right now, there's been a lot of somewhat non committal speculation on what the claim might mean. I don't like that, and I'd rather see us trying to figure out what to do now. For now, I think our bulletproof townie should be lynch proof. Leaving him alive D1 shouldn't pose much risk. However, I don't see letting him live til lylo, in case this was a scum gambit. Does anyone agree with that? Either way, what to do now? I mean, if you want to keep discussing if he's the godfather as the deadline slowly approaches, be my guest. I'd rather discuss what the specific reactions meant, as ting appears to have been doing. And I don't mean the general agree/ambivalent/disagree reactions, I mean the specific posts of opinion. Course, if that's already been done, I apologize for missing it :S.

[raider8169]

Anyway, right now, there's been a lot of somewhat non committal speculation on what the claim might mean. I don't like that, and I'd rather see us trying to figure out what to do now. For now, I think our bulletproof townie should be lynch proof. Leaving him alive D1 shouldn't pose much risk. However, I don't see letting him live til lylo, in case this was a scum gambit. Does anyone agree with that? Either way, what to do now? I mean, if you want to keep discussing if he's the godfather as the deadline slowly approaches, be my guest. I'd rather discuss what the specific reactions meant, as ting appears to have been doing. And I don't mean the general agree/ambivalent/disagree reactions, I mean the specific posts of opinion. Course, if that's already been done, I apologize for missing it :S.

I dont like the idea of saying he will or will not live to see lylo. I think it would be better to not lynch him atleast for today and let him run the show for who to lynch. Then atleast we can base his claim and the lynch together and get an idea. Of course this could be at the expense of the rest of the town. I am at a stuck on how to move on.

[Ghyrt]

You'd think, but people sometimes do it without realizing it. It's a psychological effect, which is why I'm against any groupings unless it's a clear scummish connection that

can be proven right or wrong by a flip.

Could you please clarify this?

[Matin]

Anyway, right now, there's been a lot of somewhat non committal speculation on what the claim might mean. I don't like that, and I'd rather see us trying to figure out what to do now. For now, I think our bulletproof townie should be lynch proof. Leaving him alive D1 shouldn't pose much risk. However, I don't see letting him live til lylo, in case this was a scum gambit. Does anyone agree with that? Either way, what to do now? I mean, if you want to keep discussing if he's the godfather as the deadline slowly approaches, be my guest. I'd rather discuss what the specific reactions meant, as ting appears to have been doing. And I don't mean the general agree/ambivalent/disagree reactions, I mean the specific posts of opinion. Course, if that's already been done, I apologize for missing it :S.

Ok, what to do...

Thus far, I agree with the no lynch today, but I really don't think we should give him that much clearance. Near as I can tell, at this point his role benefits him the most and has negligible town benefits, so I don't think we should go too far forward with a nolynch position on darkdude. Note: this isn't to say that he should be lynched at any point because of the claim either, just that he should be treated more or less like every other person. If he acts scummy, he gets it...

The other thing is the investigation decision, I pretty much think that the investigator should do as he/she feels best, but I don't mind offering my opinion on the matter. imo, darkdude should be at the bottom of the list of investigation targets. As stated, I don't believe this is a scum gambit unless he's investigation proof somehow. In my mind, there's like a 95% chance he's going to come up innocent in any investigation, so I'd say investigations would be better spent elsewhere ...

[forbiddanlight]

Could you please clarify this?

I guess you can only "prove" something so far by a flip. But I mean, if there are obvious ties between two people, and they've been acting scummy, I think then a lynch by group is smart, taking into account the first lynch's flip.

I dont like the idea of saying he will or will not live to see lylo. I think it would be better to not lynch him atleast for today and let him run the show for who to lynch. Then atleast we can base his claim and the lynch together and get an idea. Of course this could be at the expense of the rest of the town. I am at a stuck on how to move on.

I understand this view. I guess it's not wise to plan anything that far ahead. I just wanted to put the idea out there to see how people reacted. Still want to see. Quite frankly, for how to move on, I like this plan:

Thus far, I agree with the no lynch today, but I really don't think we should give him that much clearance. Near as I can tell, at this point his role benefits him the most and has negligible town benefits, so I don't think we should go too far forward with a nolynch position on darkdude.

Note: this isn't to say that he should be lynched at any point because of the claim either, just that he should be treated more or less like every other person. If he acts scummy, he gets it... Wink

Best idea I've heard all game. I'm down with that. the claim in the end should be considered a null tell (like others have said), but that doesn't mean we have to disbelieve it, correct? Because I'm leaning true on it at the moment.

imo, darkdude should be at the bottom of the list of investigation targets. As stated, I don't believe this is a scum gambit unless he's investigation proof somehow. In my mind, there's like a 95% chance he's going to come up innocent in any investigation, so I'd say investigations would be better spent elsewhere ...

I'm on the fence on this view. On the one hand, I REALLY don't want to risk it being a scum gambit and coming up guilty, costing us the game, so I favor investigation. On the OTHER hand though, if he is scum, he'll likely give himself away just by his play eventually, especially given the spotlight he's thrust himself in. The more you post, the more likely you are to slip up, I think, so, not investigating might make more sense because it would be a waste given the odds are for it coming up innocent regardless of alignment.

Yeah, looking at it, you've changed my mind, I'm against investigating him. but in the end, it's up to the investigator.

[chenhsi]

Guess what?

Were you ever going to come back and say what you meant by this?

Yeah, I wanted to know what the Ghyrt meant when he said "this just leaves Chenhsi". (Stop spelling my name wrong!)

I have no idea why I used the word 'guess'.

[cicero]

Day One Vote Count 2

[/b]

Cubsfan4ever[1] (raider8169)
Scattered[1] (Ting =))
Forbiddenlight[1] (Kison)

Not Voting[9] (chenhsi, Cubsfan4ever, Scattered, darkdude, Ghyrt, Ennui2778, Cass, Matin, Forbiddenlight)

With 12 Alive 7 will lynch

[raider8169]

Unvote

I didnt know I still had my joke vote up.

Did we get everyones reaction to the claim yet? I think we are still missing a few people.

[cicero]

The Fonz replaces Scattered effective immediately.

Players are reminded to review the rules of the game. Particularly Rule 7.

Welcome aboard, Fonz!

[chenhsi]

Cubsfan4ever has posted once.

Ennui2778 has posted 3 times, all useless posts.

Are they lurking?

[The Fonz]

Well, that's all interesting. For now, I'm inclined to trust it because it's one hell of an unsafe gambit for scum to claim like that. Hopefully the cop will check him sometime, given there is a cop.

Why would it be unsafe? And an early

vote: Forbiddan

for the cop direction.

I think darkdude is probably telling the truth, but I am still suspicous of him.

Explain.

As true as it could be it also could be scum trying to gain the towns trust.

I would like to know how everyone feels about the role claim atleast for the time being, opinions are always allowed to be changed on new information.

I will start and say I think its true. Next?

I see no reason to disbelieve it as of yet. It is, however, a particularly convenient scumclaim.

As true as it could be it also could be scum trying to gain the towns trust.

I would like to know how everyone feels about the role claim atleast for the time being, opinions are always allowed to be changed on new information.

I will start and say I think its true. Next?

I will also believe him, but it doesn't make sense to me for him to claim it.

Isn't the value of his role the potential wasted night kill?

Yes. The thing with a bulletproof claim is, it's basically daring the town to lynch you.

It seems there's really not much reason to have made this claim. The more I think about it, the more suspicious it seems, but it smells more like a judgement error than an outright lie. There's also the possibility that he's a doctor, cop or survivor (can there be survivors?) who's lying to protect himself.

Townliar= bad.

Here's the thing about the claim: if he's an investigation immune GF, it's brilliant PROVIDED there is no SK or vig. Certainly, in the hypothetical situation where i am a town vig, I test the claim tonight.

If he's an NK-immune GF, it's brilliant provided there's no cop.

[forbiddanlight]

Why would it be unsafe? And an early vote: Forbiddan for the cop direction.

Why would it be unsafe? At the time I was forgetting about the godfather. It begs investigation. And really, cop directing? Meh, I suppose. I wasn't really. It wasn't like "OMG, cop, view him tonight". As far as I was concerned, if we had a cop, checking this guy eventually would be the play. But, I also left it at a hope. The cop does what the cop wills. And aren't you in theory directing the vig with this:

Here's the thing about the claim: if he's an investigation immune GF, it's brilliant PROVIDED there is no SK or vig. Certainly, in the hypothetical situation where i am a town vig, I test the claim tonight.

So, really, I don't think you should throw the "directing scumtell" around so cavalierly.