Mafia 78: Meta Breaking Mafia 1 - Game over!


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Post Post #1200 (ISO) » Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:28 pm

Post by Surye »

Skruffs wrote:
shaft.ed wrote:
Surye wrote:
Surye wrote:
shaft.ed wrote:And PEG if you're town you now know my alignment. Not that you'll ever read this because you're lurking to death.
Hmm.. that's a good point. Very good actually. So Peg + MM it is. Or Peg + Tar.

Again, where's the overlap?
Hmm... Unless it's you + peg of course. Sorry, spoke too soon.
which is impossible given the conflicting cop claims.
First things first, why would PEG know that shaft.ed is town?
If PEG was scum, for obvious reasons.
If shaft.ed was scum, he would have hammered ftw.

Unless you suspect two factions left?
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Post Post #1201 (ISO) » Wed Jul 09, 2008 3:33 pm

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And if you do, I'll remind you, look at the kill history. All kills point to one scum group left. Though, I'm not sure where the assumption that there are 2 scum left for sure, but it's been a long day at work.
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Post Post #1202 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:06 am

Post by Skruffs »

Why are you saying that it's an assumption that there rae two scum left, when you were just saying that (I think) there were two scum left?

Again, I will read, but I'd like to see a run down of the claimed cops claimed results. Presumably everyone has mass claimed, right?
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Post Post #1203 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:18 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Skruffs wrote:Why are you saying that it's an assumption that there rae two scum left, when you were just saying that (I think) there were two scum left?

Again, I will read, but I'd like to see a run down of the claimed cops claimed results. Presumably everyone has mass claimed, right?
Well you can PM Guardian and he ought to be happy to send you your predecessors investigations.

Quick rundown of Tar:
Tar wrote:Surviving innocents: Toaster Strudel (should NOT have investigated her in retrospect), shaft.ed
Oh, by the way, I'm Sane, and I'm pretty damn sure that at least one of the masons is town. After all, I just got a guilty on MM.
And he claimed to investigate ABR N1.
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Post Post #1204 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:40 am

Post by Surye »

Skruffs wrote:Why are you saying that it's an assumption that there rae two scum left, when you were just saying that (I think) there were two scum left?

Again, I will read, but I'd like to see a run down of the claimed cops claimed results. Presumably everyone has mass claimed, right?
Because I said it, and then after I said it I realized that the town had been going on an assumption that I did not remember being concluded. It's an open question to Tar and shaft.ed if they know why we've been assuming that.
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Post Post #1205 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2008 6:45 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Well three mafia in a game of this size would seem horribly unbalanced for the town.
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Post Post #1206 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:25 am

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shaft.ed wrote:Well three mafia in a game of this size would seem horribly unbalanced for the town.
Yes, and the game would be over, my point is how do we know there's more then one? I may be obvious, I'm just not remembering it. We know there's at least one, but what ensures two other then balance speculation?

Just wondering as it effects the math we've been discussion. Though assuming LyLo is better then not at this point.
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Post Post #1207 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:27 am

Post by shaft.ed »

Surye wrote:
shaft.ed wrote:Well three mafia in a game of this size would seem horribly unbalanced for the town.
Yes, and the game would be over, my point is how do we know there's more then one? I may be obvious, I'm just not remembering it. We know there's at least one, but what ensures two other then balance speculation?

Just wondering as it effects the math we've been discussion. Though assuming LyLo is better then not at this point.
Umm only two mafia have died.
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Post Post #1208 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:48 am

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shaft.ed wrote:
Surye wrote:
shaft.ed wrote:Well three mafia in a game of this size would seem horribly unbalanced for the town.
Yes, and the game would be over, my point is how do we know there's more then one? I may be obvious, I'm just not remembering it. We know there's at least one, but what ensures two other then balance speculation?

Just wondering as it effects the math we've been discussion. Though assuming LyLo is better then not at this point.
Umm only two mafia have died.
We're talking about live mafia, not dead ones.
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Post Post #1209 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:54 am

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yeah 2 + 1 = 3 which is totally unbalanced in a game of this size with this many power roles. Unless Tar is the last scum, that might be balanced but I would doubt it.

I said three mafia would be unblanced, you said the game would be over. Bit confusing there as it seems like you're saying three have died.
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Post Post #1210 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2008 9:08 am

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shaft.ed wrote:yeah 2 + 1 = 3 which is totally unbalanced in a game of this size with this many power roles. Unless Tar is the last scum, that might be balanced but I would doubt it.

I said three mafia would be unblanced, you said the game would be over. Bit confusing there as it seems like you're saying three have died.
Oh, I see what you mean, I misscounted something I think. Anyways, I just wanted to make sure we were assuming 4 scum on balance reasons. I'm comfortable with that anyhow, considering it's better to err on the side of caution.
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Post Post #1211 (ISO) » Thu Jul 10, 2008 4:19 pm

Post by Surye »

So we've gone in a circle, and we're still at pretty much we have a scum mason, and a scum "cop". Tar has built a pretty convincing case on MM, and MM's only saving grace has been his breadcrumbing, but something's still not right with him.

So I still say the two replacements are likely scum, and as we've realized, both are equally a good lynch mathematically. I say we go with the dirty cop, as it comes down to convincing shaft.ed really, and if I am telling the truth, then all we have is speculation that stark and Tar are not playing a gambit. If Tar is telling the truth, then we also have his investigation to solidify the choice.

Stark is the right play here. I'll give them a chance to chime in, but expect a vote on stark unless something really big happens.

Also, two replacements that start with S is really hard :P
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Post Post #1212 (ISO) » Fri Jul 11, 2008 9:38 am

Post by Surye »

Dissapointed our deadline extension didn't insight discussion :(

Might be V/LA for the weekend, fyi.
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Post Post #1213 (ISO) » Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:29 am

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Surye wrote:Dissapointed our deadline extension didn't insight discussion :(
OK replacements. We know you have a lot of work to do, but you were in the default position for lynch. Please do something or we will likely just go along with the default.

I'm very much not liking Skruffs not posting his results. If the claim were true it's a simple matter of PM'ing the mod.
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Post Post #1214 (ISO) » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:45 am

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shaft.ed wrote:
Surye wrote:Dissapointed our deadline extension didn't insight discussion :(
OK replacements. We know you have a lot of work to do, but you were in the default position for lynch. Please do something or we will likely just go along with the default.

I'm very much not liking Skruffs not posting his results. If the claim were true it's a simple matter of PM'ing the mod.
I think you mean Stark?
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Post Post #1215 (ISO) » Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:08 pm

Post by shaft.ed »

Surye wrote:
shaft.ed wrote:
Surye wrote:Dissapointed our deadline extension didn't insight discussion :(
OK replacements. We know you have a lot of work to do, but you were in the default position for lynch. Please do something or we will likely just go along with the default.

I'm very much not liking Skruffs not posting his results. If the claim were true it's a simple matter of PM'ing the mod.
I think you mean Stark?
Bah I think you're right the double S replacements are confusing.
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Post Post #1216 (ISO) » Fri Jul 11, 2008 12:09 pm

Post by shaft.ed »

OK so my point is crap then. Stark hasn't posted anything yet, Skruffs was asking for the cop claims, which is entirely valid given he's neither of the cops.
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Post Post #1217 (ISO) » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:10 am

Post by stark »

Alright.

My predecessor didn't exactly leave me in a golden pool of light.

I also can't really attempt to justify my predecessor's actions.

However, I would be happy to answer any questions posed, in the interest of helping the town progress through the game.
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Post Post #1218 (ISO) » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:30 am

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stark wrote:Alright.

My predecessor didn't exactly leave me in a golden pool of light.

I also can't really attempt to justify my predecessor's actions.

However, I would be happy to answer any questions posed, in the interest of helping the town progress through the game.
How did today's investigation go?
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Post Post #1219 (ISO) » Sun Jul 13, 2008 12:20 pm

Post by stark »

MM didn't send in for anything today.

I've only skimmed through all 50 pages of this game, but if the town has preference, I would be happy to oblige.
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Post Post #1220 (ISO) » Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:30 am

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I'm not really sure who you could investigate, everyone know who scum is from their perspective except shaft.ed, and MM already established as paranoid.
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Post Post #1221 (ISO) » Mon Jul 14, 2008 5:45 am

Post by stark »

Ok, that's fine then.

Anything else I can do? I would love a superbrief sum-up to prepare me for this endgame, just to have some peoples thoughts on the matter.
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Post Post #1222 (ISO) » Mon Jul 14, 2008 7:28 am

Post by Surye »

MOD: When exactly is the deadline again?
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Post Post #1223 (ISO) » Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:59 am

Post by Skruffs »

Mod:
You have TS's role, "Doc", listed, but not her alignment. All other player's alignments are listed. Is this a mod error or intentional? If you can't answer that, can you please say you can't answer that?[/b]

I will do my own sum up since nobody else seems willing to give me that. :)
In the meanwhile though, for those saying that one setup is likely over another:
Guardian wrote: The focus of the game is the setup and the players.

How interesting the players are is up to you... As for the setup:
This qualifies as a normal game... but a bit off from Normal games you might have played in the past:

I agree with some of the recent threads in mafia discussion that players expect too much from mods nowadays. Players expect cop, doc, some mafia goons, one godfather, no duplicate roles, always an investigative role, always a protective role.... and I want to mod some games that break away from that pattern.

This game will have (mostly) roles you have seen before, but all expectations you have about role combinations should go out the window.
MM's claimed results:

Day 1: Investigated CoolBot , got guilty, Pro-Town

Day 2: Investigated Tar, got guilty (Still Alive)

Day 3: Investigated PEG/Me, got guilty (Still Alive)

Day 4: Investigated Surye, got guilty (Still Alive)

Day 5: Hasn't Targetted yet.
I think my role is more likely to be insane than paranoid because I believe Tar and PEG to be town. Hopefully my investigation for today can result in a not mafia/innocent.
Well, we have two options. If there is a godfather (Or more than one godfather), I have been told that GodFathers always come back as innocent no matter who targets them. Inasmuch, that should mean that targetting one would give Stark an innocent and would therefore confirm that player as scum, even if he is paranoid. The only player that hasn't been targetted is Shaft.ed, correct? Might as well target him.


I really don't like Surye "False dichotomy" that she is refusing to answer to, instead asking me questions like asking if I Think there are two factions when I have clearly stated that I would like to know what's going on.
Surye wrote:So we've gone in a circle, and we're still at pretty much we have a scum mason, and a scum "cop". Tar has built a pretty convincing case on MM, and MM's only saving grace has been his breadcrumbing, but something's still not right with him.
Tarhalindur wrote:Thank you, Guardian.

The two possible situations which lead me to say 99.9% sure that MM is scum: paranoid daycop miller (good call, Surye!) and framer + other mafia power (framer scum mason or framer godfather; unlikely but possible)

In other news, shaft.ed just cleared himself of being the lynch for today as if he was paired scum he would have just won the game. If he is scum (which is now a rather low possibility) then he has to be the only member of his faction, in which case we deal with him tomorrow.

I'm pretty sure that the scum are the players formerly known as MM and pickem, Surye possible but somewhat unlikely (his Rosso PBPA looked fairly legit on my last read, and my gut tells me Surye isn't the kind of player who's likely to bus that heavily). I'm rereading now to check my conclusions.

Unvote, Vote: Machiavellian Mafia
because I know that vote is safe.
#1: You outguess the mod as a reason to vote MM, even thought he setup is intentionally Bastard Moddy. I say that it is bastard MDody because there is an FBI agent who presumably hunts down serial killers and a vig who has to kill everynight, making him, flavor wise, an SK-miller until he is lynched.


I'm still waiting for you to respond as to why you think Surye isn't the kind of player to bus that heavily. You haven't posted since I asked. Also, what about her post on Rosso was legit? And why only on Rosso, did she not PBPA any other players? Did you base your opinion on her not being the bussing type on other games? In Dynamite Mafia, she had Yosarian2 at the top of her suspicion list. Her initial reason of him for being scum was that he was bussing me(town), which was something that she herself was doing. Later on, when Skitzer talked about beign suspicious of her, she said "Where is your strong case against me? I think Yos and CES are much more interesting, and I'm not sure what you're playing at. "


Deflection onto a scum partner = bussing.

When she struck a light, it was "supposedly" to take out Skitzer or Yosarian2. Bussing. She talks about Yos panicking but I do not see her actually say why Yos is scummy. As kuribo put it in that game, "Don't look at ME, we're bandwagoning Yos!", which was exactly what she did; deflect attention from herself onto ascumbuddy.

In realistic mafia, where SUrye was town, she did not use false dichotomies "One of A/B is scum" and was much more cautious in her antics. Scum Surye is more likley to bluff than town Surye. SUrye in this game is not being cautious.


Looking at Tar's claim, all I have really uncovered is:
I'm a Cop (sanity currently unknown). I investigated ABR N1 (because he's ABR); despite ABR's death, I found that he was specifically not a member of the Mafia (so I'm either Sane or Naive, and I can apparently only find Mafia). This suggests to me that there is a second scumgroup in the game; if so, Gorrad is almost certainly the SK.

I think I know what should be done here. We keep myself, Gorrad, and Xtoxm alive today. Tonight, Gorrad targets Xtoxm. If Xtoxm comes up scum, Gorrad is mostly clear; if Gorrad kills a different player or if Xtoxm is an FBI Agent, Gorrad gets lynched tomorrow (or left alive for a bit if I survive with a guilty).

As for who should be lynched at deadline... my best candidate is shaft.ed. After my reread here, his play looks much, much more like his play in Open 57 and House Mafia (where he was scum) than his play in Mini 492 and Mini 495 (where he was town). Note the short posts, Mafia theory, and lack of long analysis posts - coming from shaft.ed, that's remarkably scummy.
Hmm....

I need to analyze this post and compare it to what was publicly known about the roles he is directing here.



So the investigations were:
ABR (innocent)
Shaft.ed (innocent)
Toaster Strudel (innocent)
MM (guilty)


If the deadline is near, I'd like an extension. It's a big game and a lot of thought process that has to go into cracking it.
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Post Post #1224 (ISO) » Mon Jul 14, 2008 10:00 am

Post by Skruffs »

Tarhalindur wrote:
Surye wrote:
Tarhalindur wrote:
Surye wrote:
Vote: Gorrad
Lets not lose sight. I know that we have a couple things to do today, but I'm getting this ball rolling.

Quick question for Tar, is there any reason to believe you are definitely not naive? You might have said you got a guilty, but I don't remember.
Quite the opposite: I'm assuming I am Naive until proven otherwise.

Surviving innocents: Toaster Strudel (should NOT have investigated her in retrospect), shaft.ed

MM, would you mind investigating Surye? If there's a scum in the Masons (which I consider increasingly probable), he's probably it.

I want the results of MM's daycop before we head into night. No vote for now for exactly that reason.
Any reason you'd pick me over PEG?
Now that Mini 547 has been abandoned... because PEG is playing to his town meta (I killed him for playing the exact same way he's played here as scum in 547).

TS: Yes, I did investigate you after your claim, for the exact same reason that I investigated ABR after his claim: I didn't see the claim.

I fully expect to be lynched tomorrow for that mistake, too.

Note: pretty sure the last scum is Surye or shaft.ed, MM being third choice. Pickem is unlikely to be scum, Gorrad is not Mafia but has to be lynched, TS is confirmed innocent.

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