Mini 626 - Crew vs. Pigs - GAME OVER!!

[Goatrevolt]

Given what Ennui said though, isn't DD more likely to be Ennui's buddy? We are almost certain Matin is scum, we are certain DD is scum, why do we have to coinflip on Cass/Fonz?

Why do we have to coinflip on DD being Ennui's buddy?

Technically, neither are coinflips. There is evidence that gives more weight to certain results. It's not strictly guesswork here. I need to review the evidence on DD/Matin and how they fit with Ennui.

However, I think the evidence definitely points to Cass as scum more so than Fonz.

1. Fonz is a doctor. Either he false-claimed it, risking a counterclaim from anyone after him, or he's telling the truth. Although this setup does allow for a scum doc to make functional sense, it still seems more likely that a doctor is a pro-town role. Roleblocker makes so much more sense as a scum role.

2. Cass claimed that we needed to lynch The Fonz, heavily hinting at role information that would be revealed after he was dead. She was not taken up on that offer, and it turned out that her role information had absolutely nothing to do with Fonz. That's pretty shady.

So, I'm definitely leaning towards voting for Cass. I think there's a very good shot that she's scum here.

Also, note that Goat's claimed investigations provided us with no new information.

The only way I could have provided new information is if I had caught someone making a kill. I was able to verify forbiddan's claim, though.

None of us 3 (Fonz, Goat, Cass) have really strong claims to lean back on. You haven't successfully protected a kill yet, Cass hasn't made a successful roleblock on a kill yet, and I haven't successfully tracked anyone making a kill yet.

[forbiddanlight]

Eh, I'll vote Cass if you'll vote Cass, and if we are wrong we share the blame for damning the crew.

[Goatrevolt]

Eh, I'll vote Cass if you'll vote Cass, and if we are wrong we share the blame for damning the crew.

hahaha. No pressure right?

I'm not going to make any hasty decisions quite yet.

[forbiddanlight]

hahaha. No pressure right?

I'm not going to make any hasty decisions quite yet.

Whatever works. I've just kinda reached the "I'm tired" point in a game. I can't think of much else to do, and am ready to end it if at all possible. But I still want to win.

[darkdude]

For those thinking of scum doctors and role blockers...

What do you think is more likely, a scum TRACKER, a role which has been proven to exist for one of the two scum pairs, or a new scum power role which doesn't necessarily balance the tracker...? I really can't see how one scum team with a tracker and the other with a doc or a blocker is more likely than two identical scum groups.

[Goatrevolt]

For those thinking of scum doctors and role blockers...

What do you think is more likely, a scum TRACKER, a role which has been proven to exist for one of the two scum pairs, or a new scum power role which doesn't necessarily balance the tracker...? I really can't see how one scum team with a tracker and the other with a doc or a blocker is more likely than two identical scum groups.

I don't see any reason why both scum teams have to be the same. There are ways to balance two scum teams without giving them identical roles.

This kind of discussion is just gaming the mod to determine whether he'd be the type of guy to make identical scum teams or mix them up. Personally, I think it'd be stupid to lynch me solely on unknown setup speculation.

[Cass]

DD, you are making no sense at all. I believe Forbiddan is a vig. I roleblocked her myself! Also I think: crew vig (psycho), crew roleblocker (pimp), pig doc (or bodyguard or whatever his actual role is) makes perfect sense, flavor wise. There were also strong hints of an investigation-immune pig. It makes a lot of sense that is you.

@Goat & Forbiddan: I realized my second plan didn't quite work out when I was trying to get to sleep Sorry, I was pretty tired and really hoping for a solution that wouldn't force you guys to trust me. Please note that no one else has even tried to offer you anything of the kind.

I honestly am town, I am frantically trying to save us, by any means I can. It's hard for me to see what I am doing as anti-town, but I'll answer any questions, try anything to reassure you guys.

I'm afraid it all gets down to choosing between me and The Fonz after all. I really hate that. Because I am convinced you two are crew, I feel very certain that Matin, DD and Fonz are pigs. Thus I do not hesitate voting either Fonz or Matin. When you reread me, also take a look at it with that in mind, please.

On The Fonz and DD:

I still think they are the pair.
- DD claimed a role that would protect him from arrests and shootings. This confused many of us and caused doubt.
- Now, today, Fonz claims a doc

who protects from arrests and shootings

. If true, it would confirm DD's claim somewhat, because of the similarity in the mod's thinking.
- However, DD stupidly starts denying there is a vig and suddenly claims he's only safe from arrests. DD is obviously losing it here, because the vig is very much confirmed.
- At this point, even Fonz has to admit DD is scum... (If he didn't, his own claim would be disproven too.)
- Fonz has claimed a lawyer. Now, I can see easily how that could prevent arrests, but how ever would it prevent kills by the crew psycho?? Makes no sense whatsoever. Especially as DD lied about

the exact same thing

.
- All this contradiction really means that both claims are fake (or more likely a twisted version of the truth).

Unvote Matin
Vote The Fonz

Because my first long analysis is still true. And the alternative plan wasn't the solution I hoped it would be. If we lynch Matin, we should still win, btw, so I'm not against that. (I'd block Fonz, Forbiddan kills DD, it's then two town against Fonz.)

[Cass]

- I never implied that I had evidence on Fonz, he just keeps saying that to implicate me. I said I could confirm Forbiddan, which is true. By my reasoning, that made him scum by process of elimination. His responses confirmed my reasoning. His doc-claim confirmed my fears (which I had not mentioned at that point!) of him being a protective role.

- Matin bussed Ennui. Everyone seems conviced Matin is scum now. Both facts point to him being Ennui's partner.

- So, I or Fonz is DD's partner. If DD is my partner, why did he not just agree with my plan to kill Fonz?? Because that situation would make Fonz the town doc. Really.... Fonz would be long dead now. I could block Forbiddan, DD could arrest Goat or Forbiddan, pigs win.

- Now if Forbiddan is right an DD is Ennui's partner, Matin would be partner to Fonz or me. Assuming me and Matin as pigs: would I not have discussed this with Matin and made sure he was on to vote Fonz with me? Again, there is in this scenario no reason at all why Matin would not vote Fonz.

We are all agreed that DD and Matin are scum, right? Then,

if Fonz is a town doc

, and a townie (FL) was already voting him, why didn't they??

[Cass]

@ Goat and FL: The reason I held off claiming and first just hinted is that after FL's claim, I hoped the two of you would have come to the same conclusions I had. I hoped to keep the scum in the dark about my exact power, and I hoped that Matin (falsely believing I wasn't on to him) or DD (bussing in hopes of clearing himself) would vote The Fonz too and he would have been lynched quickly, before any confusing false-claims could be made. We would then have had evidence of Fonzes role, FL would have shot DD, I would have prevented an arrest. The next day we could have all claimed and finished the game in a smooth town win. That was my ideal scenario...

Assume I am town for a second. How is any of that anti-town? Assume I am scum. Would I not have claimed quicker? And would it not have been much smarter of me to claim to have blocked FL twice? (She got 'vig failed' twice, you see...)

[Goatrevolt]

I have a hard time seeing a scum doc to be honest, but I guess it's a fair point that he could be stretching the truth on his role. I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibilities that he has some sort of protection role as scum to shut down cross kills and vig kills.

I still want to reread both of you before making up my mind.

[Cass]

Personally I consider this protective role more of a risk than a fact. The truth of it is not very important to me - if we lynch Fonz, we know. If we lynch Matin, I block whatever ability Fonz may have. (And if you lynch me, it doesn't matter anymore at all...)

[Goatrevolt]

I'm going to bed. I'll finish rereading tomorrow. One thing to note is this:

three little pigs

Darkdude built his house out of straw. I think Forbiddan can blow his house down.

[Cass]

I have a little question for DD, just out of curiosity: did you get any kind of message last night that indicated someone tried to shoot you?

[The Fonz]

Personally I consider this protective role more of a risk than a fact. The truth of it is not very important to me - if we lynch Fonz, we know. If we lynch Matin, I block whatever ability Fonz may have. (And if you lynch me, it doesn't matter anymore at all...)

If you lynch me, it's game over anyway, so knowing won't help us.

Yeah, yeah.

I've said all I wanted to say. If you're crew, you need to trust me on this one. I have good reasons. (And Fonz has given you some more )

This was clearly hinting at some kind of incriminating investigation. You need to trust me. I have reasons. I'm not going to share them. That's an investigation softclaim if ever i saw one.

I'm actually thinking Cass might be town, however.

Think about it. If the scum all have bulletproof vests, and the town doesn't, then a vig is actually a NEGATIVE for the town: because it takes her two goes to kill off scum, whilst town dies instantly. Add in two scumkills, that's three a night. There's potential there for town to lose its majority by the start of day two.

There has to be some serious kill-blocking potential on the town side. A doctor i'd say is the ABSOLUTE MINIMUM you'd expect. But even a doc alone is fairly weak compared to the amount of killing power. Doc plus town RB actually balances somewhat.

[forbiddanlight]

Think about it. If the scum all have bulletproof vests, and the town doesn't, then a vig is actually a NEGATIVE for the town: because it takes her two goes to kill off scum, whilst town dies instantly. Add in two scumkills, that's three a night. There's potential there for town to lose its majority by the start of day two.

This is an assumption that I think will prove incorrect. I think that only one scum group was bulletproof, and the other group had something crazy in compensation. I'm still trying to work out if it's yours or Cass' role. I was willing to vote Cass last night, but once again, I've been convinced off her by her arguments. However, Fonz brings up a possiblity that causes me to want to look at goat. I was thinking last night of the flavor argument, and I have to look at a couple things to see how supported Goat it. I doubt I'll turn on him though, since essentially he could have lied about tracking me, or said he tracked me to one of the NK targets, and thusly gotten a townie killed, at least screwing the game for town, and likely for the other mafia. That's the main reason I have to believe Goat is town.

[The Fonz]

Look FL. He claimed an investigation role that added no new information, and helped him to buddy up to you. If he claims something incriminating, it's 50-50 he gets lynched. It makes perfect sense for mafia to do that. It's not a towntell at all.

[forbiddanlight]

Look FL. He claimed an investigation role that added no new information, and helped him to buddy up to you. If he claims something incriminating, it's 50-50 he gets lynched. It makes perfect sense for mafia to do that. It's not a towntell at all.

Hmm, I suppose not...but there's also the fact I think he was using the info in his role PM to get us to realize Ennui was scum. So, we can be pretty sure that he's not Ennui's buddy. So, he's either on the two scum team or pro town...now which is it, I wonder.

[Cass]

Wait, you're saying we could both be town and Goat has been playing us. He is scum, trying to decide if a doc or a RB would be worse... You know, this might surprise you, but after everything that happened I'm willing to consider that option very seriously. Because
1) I do think there's four bullet proof vests
2) A mob lawyer is something I'd totally expect in this set-up
3) The other team did have a tracker, plus goat claimed last (not counting Matin's easy vanilla claim)
4) To be honest, I think a pig-doc is pretty overpowered considered everything else they got. (If you´re a pig, I think/hope the claim is false.)

I discounted the option at first, but it's true that this was mostly because of my assumption that Goat is town. Which is still just that - an assumption. May have been tunnel vision.

Unvote

for now.

[forbiddanlight]

So, the coin flip becomes rolling a 3 sided die. To be honest, I agree that a pig doc given at least one teams BPVs seems overpowered. Hmm...what to do?

[Cass]

Heh, I find myself liking this new theory. I only hope it isn't because it would improve our chances so nicely. If there is most likely no pig-protector, and we have both a doc, a vig and an RB... That means we just have to lynch any scum besides DD.

@Fonz & forbiddan - Assuming all that for a minute, who do you think we should lynch?
How would you explain that DD (confirmed scum) also seems to think both I and Fonz are town, and that he's going after Forbiddan instead of voting either one of us?

To answer this myself:
I'd think this would point to DD indeed being the lonely scum. Quite possibly he thinks that two of us townies are the opposing team... (Forbiddan + someone else, because everyone is buddying up to her.) The opposing team would instead be Goat+Matin. DD could be right that they have the same powers as his team, but I won't count on it. I don't think Matin is investigation immune (not that it matters now).
I guess I'd prefer lynching Matin, because we have no idea if he has powers (I could imagine, for example, that the pigs also have a roleblocker, or possibly a bodyguard) and most of us seem convinced that he is scum. Also, it would give us still a decent chance to win if Fonz is scum after all.

[The Fonz]

Look FL. He claimed an investigation role that added no new information, and helped him to buddy up to you. If he claims something incriminating, it's 50-50 he gets lynched. It makes perfect sense for mafia to do that. It's not a towntell at all.

Hmm, I suppose not...but there's also the fact I think he was using the info in his role PM to get us to realize Ennui was scum. So, we can be pretty sure that he's not Ennui's buddy. So, he's either on the two scum team or pro town...now which is it, I wonder.

But actually, we can't afford to lynch Ennui's buddy, unless Cass is town. So lynching someone who, if scum, is part of the other group, is the best option.

OGM, but i can totally see Cicero making a town without any investigative roles.

The huge question here is, do we believe Cass is scum WITH DD. If we believe that, then she is the lynch; if not, then Goat or Matin is... i'd lean matin. He seems to be making the least effort of anyone to scumhunt.

(Also, I believe there's been one mafia doc in normals that have finished in the last year... and I was the mod. I maintain there is too much killing power here for there NOT to be a doc).

If Cass and me are both town, we can actually afford to mislynch... but then, if cass and me are both town, we won't mislynch if we lynch anyone else!

[forbiddanlight]

OGM, but i can totally see Cicero making a town without any investigative roles.

Actually, raider was the crew investigator or something.

The huge question here is, do we believe Cass is scum WITH DD. If we believe that, then she is the lynch; if not, then Goat or Matin is... i'd lean matin. He seems to be making the least effort of anyone to scumhunt.

If Cass is scum, she has to be the kill. Her roleblock effectively ruins my shot making it impossible for us to get that extra kill we need.

If Cass and me are both town, we can actually afford to mislynch... but then, if cass and me are both town, we won't mislynch if we lynch anyone else!

Basically.

[darkdude]

Okay, before a town gets lynched, I'm going to take you all hostage....I hate being a terrorist but oh well...

I claim scum. I am Ennui's partner and the Godfather for our team.

What I know is:

There are two pairs of scum. One of each pair is a GF and the other is a Tracker. Both have a One-shot NK immunity.

ForbiddenLight did NOT attack me last night, because Cicero took away my NK immunity on Night 2 as a penalty for my absence (I had begged him to not have me replaced while my computer was unusable due to virus). If FL is telling the truth, I would be dead by now.

I am 100% sure Goat and FL are the remaining scum pair.

There is no way for me to win any more, so I just want to get revenge on FL for the bullshit I had to put up with


Now, what to do:

You cannot lynch me. Doing so will cause town to lose.

I will not stand for any lynch other than Goat's. If someone else gets lynched I shall NK Fonz and you will lose.

I ask Fonz to protect me for one night. Tonight I will attack FL and destroy her one-shot NK immunity. Night 4 I will attack her again, and she can kill me, and town will win!

[forbiddanlight]

Assuming all that for a minute, who do you think we should lynch?

Assuming both you and Fonz are town, the best lynch is Matin. DD I'm almost certain is a lone scum. And, it'll become obvious if we are wrong about you or Fonz when town loses because my kill gets screwed up.


There is one other out that requires us to trust Cass once again. We lynch DD today. I do NOT shoot anyone tonight. Cass roleblocks Matin, goat, or fonz, and fonz protects me or cass (the variables are needed so the scum have to guess). We SHOULD wake up with 5 people, and 2 scum, where we kill Matin. Then we end up in an F3 situation, where I once again forgo my kill unless we are CERTAIN someone is scum that day. So, depending on how trusting you are, this should work.

[Matin]

.

I will not stand for any lynch other than Goat's. If someone else gets lynched I shall NK Fonz and you will lose.

And why wouldn't Cass role block you?

Oops..