Mini 586 - Blood Red Mafia - Game Over!


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Post Post #650 (ISO) » Sat Jul 19, 2008 6:31 pm

Post by petroleumjelly »

Day Six, Vote Count #1


2 Greasy Spot (Macavenger, Amor)

With
5
alive, it takes
3
to lynch!

Not Voting - 3 - goborage, Greasy Spot, Shepherd_of_Wolves

MeMe has thankfully changed the first post and topic for me -- funnily enough, we may be able to get by smoothly if I just poking at MeMe. ;)
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Post Post #651 (ISO) » Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:43 pm

Post by goborage »

Shepherd_of_Wolves wrote:Explain what you mean if it came down to what 4. What exactly are you suggesting?
2 NK scum + 2 endgame scum = 4. I'm saying that the NK scum have to kill at least 1 endgame scum to win.
Well if you're so sure what it ain't, how about tellin' us what it am!
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Post Post #652 (ISO) » Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:23 am

Post by Macavenger »

Still say that would be horribly imbalanced. Even if somehow true, I don't see how it changes much for today.

I mean, let's think about this. Why would you and Amor bring the possibility up now if you were in such a group? Further, if it were hypothetically you and Amor, you could have just hammered for the win, and didn't. I know I'm not scum, so presumably it would be Greasy and Shepherd? So I guess Shepherd spent days fighting madly to get his partner lynched? Not buying it.

If there is a team of two left somehow, Greasy almost has to be in it. In the far more likely scenario that there's only one wolf left, it's probably Greasy.
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Post Post #653 (ISO) » Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:08 am

Post by Greasy Spot »

Scum doesn't want to be in a position where they will to hammer because it will bring attention to their vote. Scum will mostly vote someone before they get to the L-1 point so that they don't have to bring undo attention to themselves.

If Gobo has the PR he claims then the other scum is Amor.
vote: Amor
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Post Post #654 (ISO) » Mon Jul 21, 2008 4:44 am

Post by Shepherd_of_Wolves »

Well, Doc. If we have a no kill role, then that discredits your claim a little don't you think. Maybe you know that you where a no kill character and would be advantaged to take a claim like Doc. So, now we have to decide if there is a no kill among us. If so, how does that affect the Doc claim? Three nights of no kill is a really incredible act for a Doc, which would be wonderful.

Another possibility is that we have a scum that choose not to defend the first no kill night to see who would claim Doc. But, then why has he only played the out guess Doc game and not targeted the Doc for a night kill? Why would he keep choosing me two nights in a row? Maybe scum is trying to see if the Doc will let up on me.

Maybe if there is a no kill scum, they may have been able to investigate for power roles and that is why they killed Rice. Maybe he is a picture on the wall who can investigate during night, or maybe during day and make suggestions to the living werewolves. So, maybe he is a no kill, but an investigative role for scum. In this case, I would only suspect one remaining scum. We have sadly lynched three town members the last three days.

:idea: So, If we have a no kill scum, then it would not hurt us to have a no lynch day. Because we can discuss the most likely scenario. We can all give a majority vote to a no lynch day to see what happens another night. The advantage to this is to see if we have a no kill. But, If we lynch today and some kills at night, then we have three alive. With another lynch then it comes to two players and scum win.

Lets discuss the possible out comes before finalizing the lynch.
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Post Post #655 (ISO) » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:13 am

Post by Greasy Spot »

I got a question. Can a Mafia Roleblocker perform a kill if they are the only scum left?
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Post Post #656 (ISO) » Mon Jul 21, 2008 4:39 pm

Post by Macavenger »

Greasy Spot wrote:I got a question. Can a Mafia Roleblocker perform a kill if they are the only scum left?
Depends on the mod.

OK, analysis:

We have basically three assumptions as to the remaining scum. I'm going to analyze them in the order I find most likely.

1) There is one remaining scum, a buddy of Malthusis and DBE, who has a kill and has been blocked by gobo/lazy/nokilling the last three nights.

In this event, the game is sewed up for the town. gobo's protections absolutely clear SoW and I in this case, and three nights in a row entirely clears him as well, in my opinion. If gobo were scum, he could pretty easily have just killed me (the only player still pushing for his lynch in any realistic degree) and gotten the rest of the town to lynch greasy, winning. So under this theory, the remaining scum must be either Greasy or Amor, IMO more likely Greasy. Lynch one of them today, and even if we hit the townie and they get a kill in tonight, we can lynch the other tomorrow, winning.

2) There is one remaining scum, a buddy of Malthusis and DBE, who does not have a kill.

In this event, no one is entirely cleared. However, I know it's not me and I'm confident it's not shepherd, and the rest of you should be pretty confident about this too; bussing both buddies, leaving yourself with no kill, starting from day 1 would be a totally insane gambit to pull. Since the scum don't have a kill in this theory, we can actually lynch all three of Greasy, Amor, and gobo if necessary to find the last scum. In this case, I would think the most likely scum would be gobo > Greasy > Amor, however gobo should not be lynched today given that he is cleared in other scenarios.

3) There are two remaining scum, unconnected to mallthusis and DBE, who do not have a kill.

I still find this scenario outlandish, but will analyze it anyway since several people seem to like it. In this case, no one is really cleared by night actions or early game play. However, the way this day has devloped is instructive in this case, because if this scenario is true we're actually in LyLo right now. SoW and gobo have both posted with 2 votes on Greasy, and neither has hammered. If either of them were scum with anyone but Greasy, they could have hammered and won the game. Considering that I know I'm not scum, this means that any theoretical 2 man group
must
contain Greasy. For the rest of you that don't know I'm not scum, this theoretical group could be Greasy with anyone, or myself and Amor.


So, Greasy has been acting anti-town all game, and unless you really believe Amor and I are scum together, there's really no way we can lose by lynching him. I see very little reason not to lynch him today.
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Post Post #657 (ISO) » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:04 pm

Post by Greasy Spot »

Except for the fact that I am Town.
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Post Post #658 (ISO) » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:06 pm

Post by Macavenger »

And the rest of us know that because?
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Post Post #659 (ISO) » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:24 pm

Post by Amor »

Shepherd, I don't think a no lynch is a good idea. If we have no kill remaining then it doesn't tell us anything that lynching won't. If there's no kill after a no lynch it still theoretically could have been a protection, although another one will make it seriously unlikely. If there is a kill then we'll end up in LyLo. So I think we should definitely lynch today, and GS is the right target. Macavenger does a better job explaining this than I do.
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Post Post #660 (ISO) » Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:47 am

Post by Greasy Spot »

Macavenger wrote:And the rest of us know that because?
Well as you know I can't prove it and I've done a lousy job of showing it during the game, so I guess I'm asking you the take my word for it.
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Post Post #661 (ISO) » Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:13 am

Post by Shepherd_of_Wolves »

Grease, I do not trust you and never have this whole game. My next post will be a vote for you unless you give any reason that you are not guilty. Further, I need you to explain in detail why we should vote amor or gobo, as you would have us do. Do not just tell me you are town, that will not be sufficient.

I agree that our best bet is to lynch today. If we get a night kill tonight, then we are in a heap of trouble if we did not lynch.
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Post Post #662 (ISO) » Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:26 am

Post by Greasy Spot »

Go ahead.
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Post Post #663 (ISO) » Wed Jul 23, 2008 5:23 am

Post by Greasy Spot »

Warning long post from Greasy Spot so don't faint or nothing that might hurt you.


5. goborage replacing Rosso Carne, replacing ValiantValant
(Included replacements for clarity)


Some Rosso activity:

Rosso voted coheed in post 18 cause he voted DBE. Says don't mess with his girl.

Vount count - post 29
CoheedCambria09 (3) - Rosso Carne, DarlaBlueEyes, malthusis
(notice the other 2 scums)

Greasy Spot - (1) caf19
Shepherd_of_Wolves (1) - Amor
populartajo (1) - Travis
Rosso Carne (1) - Greasy Spot
malthusis (1) - CoheedCambria09



post 31 caf19 says "What's up with this teaming-up of Rosso and Darla? Unvote; vote: Rosso Carne obv"

post 34 malthius says "How do you get this? At worst it means that rosso is a stalker if anything. Darla didn't say anything about rosso. "
(defending by the scum buddy)



Goborage replaces Rosso Carne in post 89

POST 118 - goborage tells DBE to stop defending everybody.

Post 194 - Mac posted "For now stating who you'd be willing to lynch other than Smoke if it comes to that is probably good. If we do end up needing to shift the wagon, I'd probably be willing to go for DBE or goborage. The way DBE has been waffling about the Malthusis wagon is fairly scummy independent of his alignment as well as the defending thing, and I don't like goborage's lack of effort or his trying to define when is and is not good times to defend someone; seems pretty self serving to me."

Post 252 DBE makes this comment "Goborage -- seems pretty genuinely town, was scum hunting and actually thought about the lynch on smoke before bandwagoning, 80/20 town/scum"

Post 362 DBE says "Goborage - 70% town, Seems townie to me, very logical and scum hunting oriented. "

Post 397 goborage believes darlas miller claim.
Post 398 goborage warns her about quoting PMs.

Post 419 goborage says darlas case is a weak case. Says the case against me and populartajo is more scummy than DBE at the moment.

Post 439 DBE posts an analysis of the players and leaves out goborage.



Post 449 Mac says "Speaking of people I have scum reads on, I did some rereading and poking around at stuff here. At this point, I'm going to propose that the remaining scum are DBE and goborage.

Bulk of the case on DBE has been laid out a lot, I don't feel the need to go over it again.

Looking at goborage:
Day 1 he was pretty useless for the most part. Had to be prodded hard by multiple players to get him to do something as basic as laying out what he thought about people, and even then he was extremely reluctant and gave very little information - basically giving everyone a neutral read. Discusses theory a bit, but makes little effort to actually find scum. Hops on the Malth/OG wagon when I started pushing for a lynch before deadline.

Day 2 makes the WIFOM argument that scum would be off Malth's wagon to vote for populartajo. Very convenient stance to take if both he and buddy DBE got on that wagon to be visible helping lynch scum. He basically lurks through all of Day 2, making a total of 6 very short, noninformative posts, and carefully avoids saying anything about the two main wagons of the day, DBE and xofelf. While his reasons for attacking tajo early D2 are not entirely bad, I don't like the WIFOM, or the fact that he then just sat his vote there the rest of the day without commenting on anything else particularly. He also says "lynching [Greasy] for being anti-town is as good a reason as any," making the implication that Greasy is a good lynch for anti-town behavior even if he's not scum. This argument always makes me twitch.

Today, he's posted a bit more, but has done basically nothing except defend DBE and attack Greasy.

Basically he's been closemouthed, posting as little information as possible, and has made no real effort to figure out who the scum are, just gone along with a few cases where it was convenient, and ignored the rest of the game.

Now, let's look at connections:

Malth/gobo connections are limited at best.
Malth/DBE connections are well documented.
Gobo/DBE connections:
Early D1, gobo tells DBE he doesn't like how she's defending everyone, and suggests she stop. She does so immediately. Later says her defending is a null tell, and criticizes people FoSing her for it.
D2 he didn't say much of anything, about anyone, but supports a GS or tajo lynch over DBE.
Today he's still trying to keep DBE out of the noose, attacking the idea that she might have been investigated, and pointing to other players as scummier.

The connections coming from DBE are possibly more interesting.
DBE doesn't talk about gobo Day 1. At all. She replies to a post of his a couple times, but never says anything about him.
Day 2 She still mentions him only once, putting him as strongly town on her list of everyone, claiming he'd been legitimately scumhunting and thought about the OG lynch. Except he hasn't done any scumhunting, at all.
She's mentioned gobo a couple times today, all saying he seems very town, and again claiming that he's logical/scumhunting, which is very off.

Right now I'm seeing DBE and goborage as both individually quite scummy and fairly strongly linked to each other. I'm happy lynching either at this point. Vote stays on DBE for now since she already has a wagon.

Still mildly suspicious of tajo for his flipflop/aggressive attacking my case D1, and coheed for lurking/wagoning. Those are both starting to look more and more like long shots though. "



Post 466 Final Vote count for Day 3 had only darla and goborage voting me.

Post 486 Goborage claims doc. N1 I protected SoW. N2 I protected SoW. N3 I protected Mac.
Don't like this because why would you protect someone N3 after they called you out as scum in Post 449.





Alright we know from the deaths that we have 2 confirmed werewolves, a martyr, and a wolfhunter (Jack of all trades). If we believe that Gobo is a doc as he says then we also have a doc. It would stand to reason then that the wolves would have a wolf roleblocker. In most cases the roleblocker can not kill and roleblock the same night if he is the only one left. If Gobo is the doc and has been blocked then the wolf is waiting for us to lynch enough of the townies that he can win with a NK.

I'm not believing goborage's doc claim at all. I think he might be a roleblocker that either can't kill or can only do one or the other and not both during the night.

Before goborage claimed doc he was the lynch target for that day. That evidence against him hasn't changed. He is still as scummy as before. He just picked a good role to claim.

unvote
vote: goborage
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Post Post #664 (ISO) » Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:18 pm

Post by goborage »

Well my experience is that the NK is a scum team power not one that is assigned to a particular person.

I'm still thinking that the setup is two NK scum and two non-NK scum. What does everyone else think? I'd really like to hear everyone's position on the matter.

At the very least you guys should agree that 2 and 1/2 scum is not balanced at all.
2 v 2 v 8 makes much more sense.

@ GS: the points you raise are really old. I'm thinking that you're just bringing them up again because people are breathing down your neck. And isn't a big hunk of that a Mac post? Why are you taking credit for his work?

Lol @
GS wrote:Warning long post from Greasy Spot so don't faint or nothing that might hurt you.
Exactly what % of that post is made by you?
Well if you're so sure what it ain't, how about tellin' us what it am!
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Post Post #665 (ISO) » Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:02 am

Post by Greasy Spot »

goborage wrote:Well my experience is that the NK is a scum team power not one that is assigned to a particular person.

I'm still thinking that the setup is two NK scum and two non-NK scum. What does everyone else think? I'd really like to hear everyone's position on the matter.

At the very least you guys should agree that 2 and 1/2 scum is not balanced at all.
2 v 2 v 8 makes much more sense.

@ GS: the points you raise are really old. I'm thinking that you're just bringing them up again because people are breathing down your neck. And isn't a big hunk of that a Mac post? Why are you taking credit for his work?

Lol @
GS wrote:Warning long post from Greasy Spot so don't faint or nothing that might hurt you.
Exactly what % of that post is made by you?
Nice deflection there. The content doesn't have to be from me to be true. In fact I think it pulls more weight if more than one person sees you scummy. You were the top lynch candidate when you claimed doc. I don't really believe you and I don't think Mac and SoW do either. They made good points against you before you claimed doc. So if you truly are the doc why did you have so many people thinking you were scum.

And why did you protect Mac N3 after he was leading the charge against you on D3?
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Post Post #666 (ISO) » Thu Jul 24, 2008 1:05 am

Post by Greasy Spot »

EBWOP:
goborage wrote:Exactly what % of that post is made by you?
The point of the post was not to show my stellar scum hunting techniques. It was to show your interactions with Darla and Malthius, 2
known
scum. Along with the other players suspicions.
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Post Post #667 (ISO) » Thu Jul 24, 2008 3:40 pm

Post by Greasy Spot »

Will be out of town on the 25th and 26th. Posting in all games.
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Post Post #668 (ISO) » Fri Jul 25, 2008 8:10 am

Post by Macavenger »

So, there's basically no reason for the reversal between 653 and 663. First gobo is a doc so Amor is the scum, now because of 3 day old arguments, gobo is the scum? Doesn't add up. You're just trying to deflect, Greasy. You're also ignoring that the arguments against gobo are pretty thoroughly undermined by 3 straight nights of no NK.

Someone hammer Greasy, please.
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Post Post #669 (ISO) » Fri Jul 25, 2008 8:21 am

Post by petroleumjelly »

Day Six, Vote Count #2


2 Greasy Spot (Macavenger, Amor)
1 goborage (Greasy Spot)

With
5
alive, it takes
3
to lynch!

Not Voting - 2 - goborage, Shepherd_of_Wolves

Still no mod-powers... Le sigh!
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Post Post #670 (ISO) » Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:09 pm

Post by Greasy Spot »

@ Mac: I believe some of those statements I posted earlier are your suspicions about goborage. How can you dismiss those? Just because there have been no NKs doesn't make his doc claim real. It was a gambit he is using to get the town numbers down and survive. Give up his NK for a confirmed townie position. I don't buy it.
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Post Post #671 (ISO) » Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:29 pm

Post by Macavenger »

Have you even read my posts today? I suggested that the past two days. It was plausible until the third nokill. It's not anymore, and I've explained why. If he's scum, he doesn't have a kill. Do you seriously think I've just forgotten about my own arguments? Why did you vote Amor in the first place if you think they still have merit? Why say you're making a big post when most of it is just one of mine copy/pasted, plus some statements of agreement?
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Post Post #672 (ISO) » Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:34 pm

Post by Greasy Spot »

I voted for amor after goborage claimed. After I did a reread I changed my mind back to goborage. I had already posted a suspicion of goborage earlier, it's not something where I threw everyones name in a hat and picked one.
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Post Post #673 (ISO) » Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:41 pm

Post by Macavenger »

goborage claimed days ago... you're not making sense.
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Post Post #674 (ISO) » Sat Jul 26, 2008 5:14 pm

Post by Amor »

Well, we seem to have reached an impasse. I am still in favour of lynching Greasy. Shephard, goborage, what are your thoughts? Are you reluctant to vote Greasy, if so why, do you have another suspect, etc.?
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Scum: 2-3-1

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