Newbie 588 - Game Over!

[Claus]

If you shoot too many times in a forest, sometimes you are bound to hit a tree

Official Vote Count

Claus - 2 (Muerrto, strappado)

strappado - 1 (goborage)
Abstract Actuary - 1 (Claus)

Not Voting - 2 (Abstract Actuary, The World No.1 Noob)

4 to Lynch (2 at deadline, July 31).

[Claus]

By the way, Strap, it doesn't really matter if you find me or AA scummier. Two candidates, two lynches. Just pick one to be lynched first.

[Muerrto]

Unvote

Can't see Claus doing this as scum. Good catch, very.

Need a votecount but probably voting AA. Need to re-read AA/Gobo because didn't see either as scum.

Apologises for the back and forth Claus but I thought I had a legit case, assuming I'm scum because I suspect you made me believe in my case even more. Don't vote someone just because they're voting you.

[Abstract Actuary]

By the way, Strap, it doesn't really matter if you find me or AA scummier. Two candidates, two lynches. Just pick one to be lynched first.

Wow. Really?

Ok, now I wish I hadn't deleted and rewritten my post. I had an epiphany which was that I thought you were the real doctor trying to get a fake claim from scum. It was a brilliant play. If that wasn't the case. Ugh. Just ugh. Now we are in a bad spot.

There are two possibilities that aren't covered by your "lynch AA and me in the next two days" scenario.

goborage being scum. I admit he is also very low on my list and you addressed this possibility. But it is a possibility. Even if the second scenario wasn't right. This wasn't a slam dunk.

strappado being the remaining scum with knowledge that no actual doctor exists! You just wrote up his fake claim for him with the groundwork set for you and at least one other to believe him.

[Claus]

@AA

If you think Strap is lying:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 31#1127531

Why do you think she put Muerrto as "innocent" here?

[Claus]

.
goborage being scum. I admit he is also very low on my list and you addressed this possibility. But it is a possibility. Even if the second scenario wasn't right. This wasn't a slam dunk.

Like I said before, if Gobo is scum, he deserves the win. I find in my experience that this is a good stance to take. Every time I deemed someone as "If scum, deserves to win", that person turns up town.

So the point is, do you believe strap's claim? If you do, it's me or you and game over.

[Abstract Actuary]

Alright, I thought about this the whole commute home. My conclusion: Claus is either the worst town player I have ever seen and strappado (or much less likely goborage) is scum or Claus is scum. A good town player would never make a claim for another player, no matter how sure they were. They would try to help the remaining town power player stay hidden. They also would realize that they could be gifting the game to scum by making a believable claim for them.

So the most likely scenario is that Claus is scum and he is making a play. If Claus is scum, then he is role blocking scum who knows that a doctor exists. So he figures out who the doctor is and also figures out who the doctor protected. He's known who the doctor was since last night and he probably figured out who the confirmed townie was pretty early today. That explains why Claus wasn't trying to push the strappado wagon even though it was the only viable wagon other than his own. He knew if he pushed the wagon and she claimed doc that he would be finished. He had to find a way out.

So he pushes the doc claim with all the correct information, which is easy to figure out if you know a doctor is out there but no townie would ever think to try to figure out. What is the motivation? goborage, Noob, Muerrto were you searching for the doctor? I wasn't. You can check one of my early posts on this day which concluded that the doctor likely did not exist. No townie would have been looking for the doctor.

Anyhow, so he pushes the doc claim with all the correct information that leads to the conclusion that he is one of two options remaining and he even says things like "I don't care if you lynch me first." He knows this will basically give him a pass for the first decision and I will be lynched. Then on the second day he will probably leave strappado alive and claim that the doc would have been killed overnight or else he will try to fight for goborage who now must be scum.

I know with how this all looks I will likely be lynched today. It is unfortunate, since at this point I am almost positive that scum is Claus. I beg you as my dying wish (in case I am quick lynched tonight when I'm not around) that you follow through and lynch Claus tomorrow. If Claus gift wrapped the game for strappado (or goborage, for that matter) then so be it. He blew it and there is almost no turning back now. Do not, under any circumstance, let Claus pull this gambit and win. When you find out I am town tonight, remember these words. This is the play. Claus is scum, no matter what he says tomorrow.


I'll repeat the key point that I think reveals Claus as scum to us:

No townie would be looking that hard for the doctor today - only scum who knows a doctor exists would be. Even if they found her they could never be that convinced that they were correct. Especially with no guarantee that a doctor exists. Also they would never force the doctor to reveal.

Noob, Muerrto and goborage, please confirm: no townie was searching that hard for the doctor today. Evidence pointed to no doctor existing.

Vote: Claus

[goborage]

unvote, vote: AA

[Muerrto]

Vote: AA

That's 3. He said he was willing to be lynched first and you're saying he's scum? Saying he was stupid and gave Strap an out was much better(and also possible but I doubt it). But saying he's scum makes no sense at all.

That's lynch -1.

[The World No.1 Noob]

sigh, well looks like its gg, if AA isn't the scum we really have no choice tomorrow,

vote: AA

[Claus]

*crossing fingers*

[strappado]

Just in case AA is not the scum and I'm NK'd:

Please dont rush lynch Claus just because today came to "one or the other". Everyone should be considered carefully. When I'm confirmed doc, it might be easy to completely dismiss Muerrto, and I know I've been guilty of it since I started playing, but in endgame, every possibility should be looked at. It IS possible that scum just didn't submit a nightkill...although unlikely - but it shouldn't be completely dismissed.
And gobo's played a pretty town game, but I've seen town blindsided before.
Please just look at everyone equally.

Ofcourse that paragraph is pointless if AA is the scum...and his last posts sounded like the desparate scramble of a cornered scum....so I think we chose the right one
*also crosses fingers*

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Final Day 3 Vote Count

Claus - 2 (strappado, Abstract Actuary)

Abstract Actuary - 4 (Claus, goborage, Muerrto, The World No.1 Noob)

Not Voting - 0 ()

4 to Lynch (2 at deadline, July 31).

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

"I think strap is the doc", says claus.

"It's true, I am", agrees strap.

Well, there's only one thing to do then isn't there? Lynch the scummiest player! You string up AA, but to no avail. He was a good little townie after all.

Abstract Actuary

,

Townie

, Lynched Day 3

Night has begun. Those of you with night actions must submit your choices by Saturday, July 26th.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Newbie games are for Newbies, but not for Noobs.

The World No. 1 Noob,

Townie

, Killed Night 3

Day 4 has begun. With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

[strappado]

not feeling real great today, had company last night and was up way too late, etc. etc. I'll have to do some re-reading and clear-minded thinking before I'm ready to really start tackling this day. I'm not sure where to start at this point.

[Muerrto]

Why the hell didn't the doctor protect the confirmed townie???

Strap, who'd you protect and why?

Vote pending.

[strappado]

I figured I'd either be NK'd or roleblocked so it seemed stupid to even bother sending in a night action, but I did anyway. Protecting the confirmed townie made the most sense to me, so I protected Noob. Obviously I was roleblocked.

I'm not really surprised that I wasn't NK'd. I thought I was pretty much dead yesterday when I claimed, but thinking more about it, that would have confirmed me as the doc which would have pretty much cleared Muerrto and left confirmed town Noob alive and narrowed down the scum to Claus and gobo.
I actually thought if I was NK'd that Muerrto might actually be the scum because the only person that my death would benefit is Muerrto as it would seemingly confirm him as town. Since I wasn't NK'd, I'm even more sure that Muerrto is town.

That leaves gobo & Claus. I'm interested to hear from both of them today.

[Muerrto]

Yeah my bad, forgot Vel allows blocker to kill AND block(which I agree with). Alot of mods don't.

Noob was definitely the obvious kill since you're not confirmed and they have a blocker. Crap...Either I'm really wrong about Gobo...or I was soooo right about Claus.

I'd like to hear what Claus has to say obv

[goborage]

@ Muerrto: You think Strap is confirmed?

[Claus]

Well, I'm feeling stupid now.

Anyway, the move today is no-lynch. It will clear one more townie.

We can:
a- Discuss who we think is townie or not before voting no-lynch
Pro: We get input from everyone before one more townie dies.
Con: The scum get some more info to decide their kill.

b- Vote no lynch without discussing
Pro: Scum has less info on who they should kill tonight.
Con: The dead person don't get to give his/her opinion on the end game.

I think scum already knows who they should kill tonight, so I'm pending A. What do you guys think?

[Muerrto]

@ Muerrto: You think Strap is confirmed?

I think she's as confirmed as possible and if she turns up scum Claus gave her a perfect out and there's not really anything we can do about it.

Never claim for someone else is the moral here.

But I'm still thinking I might've been right all along but if I can't convince the town it doesn't matter.

However Claus is right about the 'no lynch' and I also think discussion is good.

[strappado]

I've never been in this situation before, but running over the scenarios in my head, I think no-lynch would be the best bet. I also agree that discussion is a good idea, but I'll wait until we all agree to start discussing in case someone has an argument against it.

[goborage]

I'm fine with a no-lynch. I still think strap is the last scum.

[Claus]

Vote: No Lynch