Open 778: Nightless Vanilla [Game Over!]

[Green Crayons]

1. They hammered scum out of two competing wagons. Surface level analysis is that scum would stay on Elements wagon or choose to no lynch rather than hammer a buddy there, which is against their wincon. Hence hammering gives towncred. How deep in the WIFOM chain do you want to go when analysing scum motivation?

I don't understand what your point here is? I'm saying Ali doesn't get towncred for a hammer on a wagon she wasn't invested in, that she did just for a flip.

You appear to be arguing against that for some reason, saying that I should be giving her towncred?

2. Why should the fact that Ali's comment appears next to a vote count make you believe it to be genuine, under your framework? It only affects town!Ali, not scum!Ali, since scum!Ali knows whether the vote happened regardless of whether the VC is correct, if they are hyperaware of scumbuddy behaviour, as you suggest. This can still be scum!Ali faking it, especially if they are actively daytalking and setting strats up. If they aren't actively daytalking, then, as you suggest, they might have genuinely missed their scumbuddy's behaviour. Like this is only very weakly AI at best.

I don't know if it's next to a VC, I just know that there were errors in the VC and so that's a reasonable reason to assume the source of confusion. And, as you point out, it's unlikely that Ali-scum would not be cognizant of where Cycle-scum had voted. Also, I don't see what the motivation is for Ali-scum to fake not knowing where Cycle-scum is voting, since it's such a small thing.

[Green Crayons]

FB, GC, can you explain why Alisae is town because I'm really not seeing it. OK, the behaviour surrounding the Cycle Men wagon wasn't completely atrocious (though I'm still adamant it's scum-indicative), but surely the ABR hammer was.

Ali says that her ABR hammer was to make herself look even more suspicious on purpose. I find that a hard pill to swallow, but I don't know what her scum motivation would be for the ABR hammer

because

it looks bad. Comically, if she *is* scum, some stupid gambit like a HME-Norwegian-Ali-Cycle team is not impossible.

But I generally like her suspicions (HME notwithstanding) and I see where she is coming from in D2 & 3.

[Deimos27]

I'm relatively convinced Crayons is town now. Norwegian might just be town too.
AMA

Disappointed nobody took me up on this, but I'll explain now that I thought Norwegian is town for his positioning around the Cycle Men wagon.

Spoiler: Norwegian

VOTE: Cycle Man
Weird posts.

Look at Cycle men’s ISO. LOOK AT IT.
If that slot is town then i can safely say gg. We lost.

Look at Cycle men’s ISO. LOOK AT IT.
If that slot is town then i can safely say gg. We lost.

Look at ABR's ISO. LOOK AT IT.
If that slot is town then i can safely say gg. We lost.

I disagree. ABR could be excused by inactivity due to being busy IRL. Meanwhile Cycle men has consistently posted garbage. Showing that they had the potential to make good posts, but did not.

Cycle Man

>joins the game, but not really

im sorry did you expect me to have the game solved in half an hour on page 2?
how hard are you gonna try and force this?

Bruh, your defense would look a lot better if you had posted anything at all that would advance the game prior to this.

keyword: pretending

So who are the ones pretending according to you?

You don't have reads, got it.

There are multiple slots in this game i’d be happy to see get policy lynched tbh.

I'm thinking we should find out who this Clemency guy is and lynch him. He looks pretty scummy.

Cycle man joins the battle, your mom, could go for a burger right now.

Yes, it’s a great entrance!

All this time Norwegian is pushing relatively hard (about as hard as can be expected from the memey low-effort playstyle he promised) and promoting a Cycle Men lynch. At this point it's still possible this is a planned bus to win towncred, but I think he commits rather heavily and for surprisingly long (all the way to L-1) before he, eventually, changes his mind, voting HEM and:

Cycle Men. Is it weird if i consider it town that you’re just as confused as i am?

Cycle men you weren’t this active or solvey before. What changed?

Cycle Men's behaviour did change: he became more active and started to effort somewhat, so I think this is a reasonable change in stance, especially seeing as Norwegian's main qualm with him appears to be his contentless jokeposting play. His mechanisms for the read are different than mine, which is why it feels consistent and natural to move off it.

If the plan was to bus the slot, it's still completely possible. Scum look too much at being consistent at how their reads look rather than being consistent with the reasoning behind their reads. There's reason to think scum!Norwegian here would continue to bus rather than move off, something town!Norwegian does probably almost every time with these lines of enquiry.

Element flip will give much more valuable information than Clemency in my opinion. This excessive concern against the initial wagon from Humaneatingmonkey is pretty weird.

At the end of the day he insists that Elements, whom he scumreads, is better than Cycle Men, whom he's less sure about now and has less clear associative tells according to him (at least regarding Alisae). Surface level analysis says this looks scummy for trying to avoid the Cycle Men lynch, which is why scum might be afraid to do so. In any case it's an awfully weak effort if he really wants to derail the wagon, which reflects his remaining uncertainty about the alignment of Cycle Men and how though he thinks Elements lynch is better, he doesn't think it's

that

much better. If the scum gameplan is to sacrifice Cycle Men, he'd be jumping on. If it's to mislynch, he'd fight at least a bit harder.

Upshot is he's quite consistent about the slot and with how he changes his mind, in ways I don't really expect from scum.

[Deimos27]

@Demios are you not convinced on scum!ali enough to vote?

I'm tl'ing FB and tr'ing GC so I wanted to see where their heads are at. I'll be leaving my vote on Ali before I go to bed if I'm not persuaded.

[Deimos27]

1. They hammered scum out of two competing wagons. Surface level analysis is that scum would stay on Elements wagon or choose to no lynch rather than hammer a buddy there, which is against their wincon. Hence hammering gives towncred. How deep in the WIFOM chain do you want to go when analysing scum motivation?

I don't understand what your point here is? I'm saying Ali doesn't get towncred for a hammer on a wagon she wasn't invested in, that she did just for a flip.

You appear to be arguing against that for some reason, saying that I should be giving her towncred?

I assumed you were saying the fact e doesn't get towncred is a reason why e wouldn't bus. I'm saying surface level analysis

does

imply towncred and that's reason to bus.

2. Why should the fact that Ali's comment appears next to a vote count make you believe it to be genuine, under your framework? It only affects town!Ali, not scum!Ali, since scum!Ali knows whether the vote happened regardless of whether the VC is correct, if they are hyperaware of scumbuddy behaviour, as you suggest. This can still be scum!Ali faking it, especially if they are actively daytalking and setting strats up. If they aren't actively daytalking, then, as you suggest, they might have genuinely missed their scumbuddy's behaviour. Like this is only very weakly AI at best.

I don't know if it's next to a VC, I just know that there were errors in the VC and so that's a reasonable reason to assume the source of confusion. And, as you point out, it's unlikely that Ali-scum would not be cognizant of where Cycle-scum had voted. Also, I don't see what the motivation is for Ali-scum to fake not knowing where Cycle-scum is voting, since it's such a small thing.

Your comment about how the error in the VC makes it look genuine I thought functioned as a way of dismissing the possibility of it being intentionally faked, since that's the only case in which it

isn't

genuine. I was saying it doesn't affect that probability at all.
How well known is this tell of awareness about scumbuddy behaviour? If it's known, this can totally be set up (at least in a fair proportion of the worlds where these players are active in daytalk). Even if it isn't known, this can be a genuine error from scum (at least in a fair proportion of the worlds where these players

aren't

active in daytalk). That's why I say it's a weak indicator of alignment.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Isis, Deimos, what is your stance on all this?

All what?

I was referring to the events of today.

[Green Crayons]

assumed you were saying the fact e doesn't get towncred is a reason why e wouldn't bus. I'm saying surface level analysis does imply towncred and that's reason to bus.

Oh nope. I’m just saying my personal assessment is that she doesn’t get towncred for it.

[Deimos27]

FB, GC, can you explain why Alisae is town because I'm really not seeing it. OK, the behaviour surrounding the Cycle Men wagon wasn't completely atrocious (though I'm still adamant it's scum-indicative), but surely the ABR hammer was.

Ali says that her ABR hammer was to make herself look even more suspicious on purpose. I find that a hard pill to swallow, but I don't know what her scum motivation would be for the ABR hammer

because

it looks bad. Comically, if she *is* scum, some stupid gambit like a HME-Norwegian-Ali-Cycle team is not impossible.

But I generally like her suspicions (HME notwithstanding) and I see where she is coming from in D2 & 3.

Lock in the mislynch, play it off as lolhammer. People were broadly in favour of the lynch, so I can easily imagine em thinking e could get away with it.
At the very least there's gotta be more scum motivation than there is town motivation, right?

[Green Crayons]

How well known is this tell of awareness about scumbuddy behaviour? If it's known, this can totally be set up (at least in a fair proportion of the worlds where these players are active in daytalk)

lol I haven’t the slightest about how well known it is. I don’t even know if it’s part of site meta. Just something I noticed that caught my eye when trying to sort out the Cycle/Norwegian/Ali mess.

[Green Crayons]

At the very least there's gotta be more scum motivation than there is town motivation, right?

Hrm hrm hrm. Let me ruminate.

[Deimos27]

I hate the idea of reading lolhammers like that as even NAI because it means scum can get away with them in future. Super anti-town plays have to be read as scummy. We have to expect better play than that from townies.

[Alisae]

i think ur too narrowly focused right now and the people pushing u is making u lose perspective a bit.

I think there is 0 reason for scum to defend me and I think that it is all town that at this moment is voting either norwee or not voting.
I think that its very reasonable for all 3 scum to want to kill me due to how easy it is to do so.

ur like not an easy lynch.

All scum has to say is I hammered ABR and I defended Cycle Men and thats what most of the attacks have been against me.

okay but i don't think its working? and i don't know if this is a scum motivated plot. I think u need some sleep to gain some perspective.

I can potentially be placed at L-1 today but not anything higher assuming Deimos is the only one to vote me and thats no on else.
Its wrong to say its just not working because I am a major wagon today

[Alisae]

There is no scum motivation in defending me
And there is all of the scum motivation in the game to attack me

[Deimos27]

Here's where my head is at readslist wise. Read top to bottom in terms of towniness.

Town:
HEM
GC
Norwegian
FB

Null:
Elements
Isis, Looker

Scum:
votato
Alisae

I'll make a point of trying to sort Isis/Looker tomorrow morning as well as weighing in on whatever developments occur overnight. I'll reserve the evening for schoolwork.

[Alisae]

By the way, if Alisae is town here, I'm willing to be lynched tomorrow. That's how confident I am.

no, i need u for the golden final team.

Don't lynch ali

if ali really is town then maybe we can put you in the final team. we can punish you by making you play for not solving the game now.

Scum!Fire being so adamant to defend me is weird tho

[Alisae]

dude
I need to sleep its 8am
you have everything you need to determine that I'm not scum here. I told you everything you need to know.
I trust you to correctly identify me as town here because I know you can.

I am still triggered. I want to kill Norway because I hate the player and save you because I like you, but I admittedly let my biases get the best of me. Then with the hundreds of posts to comb through, it's a bit much. Also, aren't certain alts for certain playstyles?

I alt because my intention with those alts is to roleplay but I can never commit to it because I want to bring the best possible game to the table

[Deimos27]

There is no scum motivation in defending me
And there is all of the scum motivation in the game to attack me

Your posting style has gotten really polemical. These are overgeneralizations, even if you are town.
Scum that thinks your lynch will go through without everyone needing to be on the wagon will happily commit a player to defense for the towncred.
Conversely, if you are a very difficult lynch, there is every possibility that scum would opt to leave you for later or even for endgame.

But I'd be surprised if I end up having to think about that very hard. You feel like you're flipping red.

[NorwegianboyEE]

Damn. Deimo's is bringing out fancy words to the table. Polemical.

[Alisae]

Do you care about anything I have to say or even want to consider having an open mind to me being town?

[Deimos27]

I can potentially be placed at L-1 today but not anything higher assuming Deimos is the only one to vote me and thats no on else.

VOTE: Alisae L-1
Hammers without intent hang D4.
I'm off to bed now.

[Green Crayons]

Ali what do you think of Deimos’s Norwegian as town case?

[Alisae]

Votato same question to you

[Alisae]

Ali what do you think of Deimos’s Norwegian as town case?

which post?

[Deimos27]

Do you care about anything I have to say or even want to consider having an open mind to me being town?

If this is addressed to me, I'll say that I thought I addressed your opinions relatively fairly and thoroughly. Please do continue to defend yourself if you think I haven't; I try my hardest to be open-minded and logical.

[Alisae]

Nah i don’t believe you