Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[northsidegal]

Votecount 1.20

Mohab500

............

(5):

Umlaut (596), Fredrick A Campbell (608), Eevee (622), Raya36 (634), Snowblaze (646)

Snowblaze

...........

(4):

HoldenGolden (511), Menalque (532), Ydrasse (552), Almost50 (570)

RCEnigma

............

(1):

Mohab500 (502)

Not Voting

..........

(3):

Something_Smart, Chemist1422, RCEnigma (612)

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-14 12:17:59).

[northsidegal]

Prodding Almost50 and Chemist1422.

[Snowblaze]

Oh yeah, someone asked me about the Fredrick townslip, didn’t they?

I mean, yes, it’s something scum could fake but it’s just not something I feel they’d be likely to. I think more often than that these things are genuine townslip rather than scum faking them. Not to the point where I’d be willing to lock him as town on that alone, but certainly enough to give him a pass for a day or two.

[Menalque]

Menalque, independently of Snowblaze, what is your actual read on Mohab?

I probably would have compromised there if we needed majority lynch

Her ISO is notably different from partition but I’m not convinced that means she’s scum. I still think the dumbtelling means probably town but like, I wouldn’t be shocked if it didn’t. Mostly she feels like a counterwagon to snow after the RCE counter didn’t take off, which is compounded by a number of scummy slots avoiding getting on her while not necessarily calling her town

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I am gonna ask a really dumb question but, can there be power roles in this game?

To me, this post shows that she is aware this question she is asking is dumb. It is a leap of logic, but I think it suggests that she is making a show of it.

[Umlaut]

Wow there are a lot of nonvoters for so little time left.

[Snowblaze]

Raya36

The point she makes about Holden in 27 is a real stretch, but for barely-out-of-RVS I guess I can... sort of understand it. RCEnigma does make a good point that specifically claiming credit for escaping RVS is suspicious, though.

I vaguely remember not liking the transition between 127 and 136 - it reads like scum changing their minds as soon as I'm a possible suspect.

I do like her assessment of Craig/Menalque in 155, 161 and 192 - these are quite similar to my own thoughts at the time.

Not quite sure about her progression on Fredrick from 319 to 443, it's hard to see the progression there.

Blatantly sheeping for a wagon is... kind of scummy, but I also feel like scum wouldn't want to draw attention to those actions.

I generally don't like the Holden wagon that sprung up a few days ago, and her entry onto it isn't exactly inspiring.

I think I'm largely okay with her position on me, I feel like there's a pretty good chance scum would be okay with jumping on my wagon or at least voting there in spirit.

The Eevee vote is spicy, and I think I like it. There's no attempt to protect any scum partner there, it seems genuine.

And, as I said earlier, I appreciate her defence of me.

Overall, I think I'm townleaning Raya - although if Mohab and RCE are both town, I could see her as scum trying to set me up to be miseliminated after Mohab tomorrow.

One more to go, and then I think I need to take a look at these wagon dynamics. There's got to be some useful information in there.

[Snowblaze]

Almost50

Not getting anything strongly AI from his predecessor Homura.

Slight

townpoints from 445 for admitting he's probably biased.

513 - defending RCE, which... I guess I can understand. I think I already mentioned I disagree with not outing TRs, but at the same time I can see where he's coming from here. But things like that on their own aren't enough for one of only two confident townreads, imo.

Kind of disagree with 545, which is missing the possibility that scum!RCE asked the question in private before even mentioning the possibility. 559 I can understand, I've been in positions where I've wanted to say that sort of thing as town.

566 - a strong meta read makes a lot more sense as a reason for hard-defending RCE like this, but it's also impossible to verify.

And I already gave my thoughts on 570.

So, overall I'm fairly null, but if RCE flips scum at some point he definitely needs to be next.

[Ydrasse]

VOTE: mohab500

yeah, sure. the lack of promised content and general... confusion as a whole about things i could see coming from scum. my brain likes to not trust dumbtells anyways. i like that snowblaze offered perspective and if i offered her the chance to talk her way out of the elimination, oops. is refreshing to see that sort of analysis from the slot.

this vote feels a lot less like a “because we need to have a wagon” vote than others fmpov, too. even if it’s something pretty quickly arranged in the last day or so.

[Almost50]

I could have sworn I did post everywhere I was supposed to last night. It looks like I somehow forgot to post in this game or I typed a message and didn't submit.

I basically have nothing to say here. The only reason I am not on Mohab already is the one snow has pointed out (my bias against her playstyle and numerous replace-outs).

But it's kind of strange that the point is being brought by Snow; the player I am actually voting rn. I dunno if she was reminding me of the fact 9thus subconsciously planting the idea of NOT voting mohab in my mind) or if she wanted me to "get over it" and actually vote there.

As far as the situation remains the same I guess I'd wait and see what happens in the next few hours. What was important to me on this day is that neither of my string TRs got eliminated. There will be no night and we go straight to D2 so I can probably get better reads with a flip, and I don't really care which of the two is flipped because there have been some vote movement and I think I can analyze those.

[Raya36]

That's E-3 for Mohab and 15 hours until deadline

This is vaguely disingenuous given that Snow is also at G-3

Snow is viable as well but I don't want her lynched because I think she is town

Yes but by presenting only mohab it makes her seem like she’s the only person viable to anyone coming into the thread late, when that’s not the situation. Despite your reads you should present the information honestly so that we can see what people chose to do between the two of them on later days with all the information in front of them

I really wish we weren’t deadline guillotining

That's true but I was just pointing out that I brought Mohab to E-3 but you're right, I should've pointed out snow too

[Something_Smart]

S_S, chemist, RCE

I’d like it if some combination of you could vote snowblaze at this point to ensure she’s guillotined today

Why Snowblaze over Mohab?

[Something_Smart]

Wow there are a lot of nonvoters for so little time left.

I'll be around till deadline, don't worry.

[Raya36]

Why don’t you want a snow lynch Raya? Or more to the point, why do you think snow isn’t scum?

I believe Snowblaze's post that I quoted and she stepped it up with that read list and the new burst of effort. I also believe that she will participate much more now based on the reads and the effort shown there and the lack of participation and solving was my main problem originally.

Which post, you quoted two?

And why does snow making an effort at threat of being lynched make her townie vs her lack of solving earlier?

Also why is effort townie? Snow made walls and tried in her scumgames on site and meta is basically the only reason to TR someone or SR someone for effort

530
I think that's genuine and I think she's actually trying to get into the game. Maybe I'm being a bit too forgiving for lack of effort since I'm struggling to get into the game myself. The effort could be trying to get off the chopping block but with the time left before a lynch has to be made and being the most likely to get lynched all that effort wouldn't be likely to save her and would only be info for town if she flips scum.

[Eevee]

fantastic! thank you for moving to Mohab, Ydrasse Raya and Snowblaze - i feel it in my Eevee soul that this will flip scum

we've got just under 5 hours left so let's get that hammer down and get this play started

~Eve

[Menalque]

S_S, chemist, RCE

I’d like it if some combination of you could vote snowblaze at this point to ensure she’s guillotined today

Why Snowblaze over Mohab?

I still think the original reasons for scumreading her are sound: the lack of scumhunting through the day, posts like 110 and 290 are overexplainy in a scummy way I think — there’s no need to say that mohab is scummy but not enough for a vote that early in the game and feeling like you need that level of justification is more likely to come from a new scumplayer I think. Same thing in 290, the reasons are very weak and probably didn’t need to be provided and I struggle to see why town would think it’s necessary to give them while making that vote.

Holden’s point is still valid about how 330 was an odd phrasing for why she was unvoting fredrick although her explanation in 530 isn’t unreasonable. However, speaking of 530, she has referred a couple of times to “not really having many scumreads” which I think is scummy (and more so from newbscum tbh) as I think it can be hard to come up with a convincing fake scumread when you’re scum and so it can be easier to just avoid that by saying “ahh everyone is just kinda town :/“

Her reads in 415 have an IIoA vibe to them where she’s just sort of describing what slots are like or what people have done rather than trying to figure out their alignments, and her 4 recent walls have nothing that I don’t think could be faked by scum in them and I see them as very out of sync with my own reads and impressions of those slots. They also just seem disjointed as a whole — like my pick for the scumteam rn is probably (snow, raya, eevee) and I think that makes a lot of sense given how they’ve reacted to one another and to the gamestate, which is the final bit of why I think snow is scum — the wagon on her came up quite naturally I’d say, but has been resisted throughout (it’s part of my scumreads on eevee and raya that I think they were both doing this) but no-one has really been wanting to towncase snow, they’ve just avoided voting for her or argued for voting elsewhere.

And then mohab feels like a soft target (given the dumbtelling and also the lack of posting) who scum are picking as their counterwagon to keep it off snow. I don’t feel strongly enough that snow is scum and that mohab isn’t to want to brute force her lynch (which is something I’m trying to do less anyway, as you may have noted in JK9++ when I didn’t try to force lilith through when her wagon was competing with yours). I wouldn’t be shocked if mohab flipped scum, but it feels much more like she’s the attempt to keep the guillotine off snow after doing the same with RCE failed, and I think there is a lot of pressure on scum to try to ensure that their team don’t get guillotined D1.

[Menalque]

Also, I’m weirdly not overly concerned about getting to flip scum today in that if mohab flips town I think snow is very, very probably scum, and there’s nothing scum can do to stop me coming after her tomorrow due to the first two nights being skipped. Plus if I’m right then we get two more tries at it where hitting on either is GG and I think I have a smallish pool for who I think make sense as partners for snow which will be significantly smaller if she reds and scum have to confirm five town

[RCEnigma]

I'm not sure Eevee + Raya = snow as the third but I get what you're getting at and Eevee is the only reason I'm not pursuing that angle.

I gotta say I like snow coming in and giving content under pressure opposed to Mohab just not.

I could just be paranoid of all the wagons but a flip will help regardless.

[Menalque]

I'm not sure Eevee + Raya = snow as the third but I get what you're getting at and Eevee is the only reason I'm not pursuing that angle.

I gotta say I like snow coming in and giving content under pressure opposed to Mohab just not.

I'm not sure Eevee + Raya = snow as the third but I get what you're getting at and Eevee is the only reason I'm not pursuing that angle. I gotta say I like snow coming in and giving content under pressure opposed to Mohab just not.

It’s more like snow = eevee + raya. I think raya can be scum either way, eevee makes a lot of sense if snow!scum and mohab!town

And I don’t really think giving content coming up to deadline with a wagon on you vs just not doing that is AI

[Eevee]

well we'll find out shortly sailors - 1 hour left so don't miss the deadline please

~Eve

[Menalque]

RCE, S_S, I would encourage you both to vote snowblaze if you’re still around for the reasons above

[Something_Smart]

Sure.

VOTE: Snowblaze

Probably won't matter, though.

[RCEnigma]

You're building a hill that you might potentially die on if Mohab flips scum.

VOTE: Snow

Pedit says this is hammer.

[RCEnigma]

Read might potentially as will.

[northsidegal]

-