Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[northsidegal]

Votecount 1.24

Mohab500

............

(5):

Umlaut (596), Eevee (622), Raya36 (634), Snowblaze (646), Ydrasse (658)

Snowblaze

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(4):

Montosh(511), Menalque (532), Almost50 (570), RCEnigma (672)

RCEnigma

............

(1):

Mohab500 (502)

Ydrasse

.............

(1):

Fredrick A Campbell (714)

Not Voting

..........

(2):

Titus, Something_Smart (739)

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-16 11:50:59).

[Snowblaze]

Umlaut:
- says he "doesn't hate" my wagon in 591;
- decides to instead start the Mohab wagon in 596 and advocates her elimination.

Fredrick:
- votes me based on Holden's post in 522;
- switches to Mohab in 608 based on an earlier post;
- switches off-wagon to Ydrasse in 714

(@Fredrick, I don't think we're eliminating Ydrasse today, I'd appreciate it if you could vote Mohab instead. Or you could vote me, but...)

Something_Smart:
- votes for me on Menalque's request in 671;
- unvotes in 739;
- declares he's okay with Mohab dying but not with eliminating an empty slot in 741

Eevee:
- Eva head votes for me in 533 based on Holden's post;
- Eve head switches to RCE in 547;
- Eve claims not to mind my wagon in 568;
- Eve votes for Mohab in 622;
- both heads proceed to scumread Mohab and push the wagon; Eve finds me townier

Menalque has... made his stance pretty clear, he wants me dead. Doesn't particularly mind the Mohab elimination of itself, but thinks it's a counterwagon to scum!me.

RCEnigma:
- votes for me in 599
- unvotes to see my analysis
- revotes on Menalque's request

Montosh isn't fully caught up yet, but his predecessor started my wagon and advocated my death. His vote is still on me.

Titus has yet to give a firm stance, although 697 implies she thinks I'm more likely to be scum than Mohab.

Ydrasse:
- votes me in 552
- encourages me to produce analysis
- switches to Mohab in 658
- argues that I could be town

Raya36:
- townreads parts of my content
- doesn't want me eliminated
- joins Mohab wagon despite a push on Eevee earlier

Almost50
- votes me in 570
- doesn't really care which of me/Mohab is eliminated.

I'm running out of time, so I'm afraid this post will have to be blatant IIOA. I'll analyse the information tomorrow.

[RCEnigma]

Fmpov, the issue is this: if snow is town, why are scum so committed to seeing her go through? Because I don’t think anyone else has been advocating that much for a snow!guillo other than me, and I know that I’m town and this is a town push on her. Whereas mohab very much only came up after the RCE wagon attempt had fallen apart

So if snow is town and mohab is scum, why aren’t the actual scum doing anything to resist mohab!flip or to back my snow push? Unless they’re entirely counting on my snow push as a defence of mohab, but that seems unlikely given that I can always change my mind and that putting all your eggs into the “letting a townie defend our scumbuddy” feels like a scumteam ceding far to much ground to be plausible

The gamestate has changed from yesterday to today just with the extension.

We were literally minutes from a no lynch yesterday with Mohab being the swing vote and inactive afaik. The alternative being a last minute hammer resulting in snows death. I was pretty close to switching to Mohab to avoid that scenario but Titus switched it up.

Mohab being scum doesn't mean scum are doing nothing, a no lynch still gets them closer to their wincon.

[Something_Smart]

Don't forget this game uses plurality.

[Eevee]

-Lynches will occur when a majority (>50%) is reached. If no majority is reached before deadline, the player with the most votes will be lynched. Ties will be resolved by wagon seniority. If the day ends with no votes cast, a random town-aligned player will die.

I missed it as well, but this is pretty helpful.

~Eva

[Eevee]

What about the push do you think is poor quality?

The fact that your main point seems to have been “mohab meta looks different here” and despite that being pretty weak on its own mohab has still become a strong counterwagon to snow

That's not all though; it's mainly the dumbtelling, and the fact it doesn't look genuine (backed up by referencing a past game). Do you really think it's not a good point?

~Eva

[RCEnigma]

I don't know what wagon seniority means.

[Something_Smart]

Whichever wagon was more recently larger.

[Menalque]

Whichever wagon was more recently larger.

huh? it's like the opposite of this no? which wagon reached the number of tied votes first

[Titus]

VOTE: Ydrasse

Because why not

[Something_Smart]

huh? it's like the opposite of this no? which wagon reached the number of tied votes first

They are the same if the wagons became tied because of a vote. If they became tied because of an unvote, then it goes to the wagon that the person who unvoted was on.

[Menalque]

I am very opposed to a ydrasse wagon and want an explanation for anyone voting her.

@S_S okay I get what you mean

[Menalque]

from*

also, Titus, what was your VCA that led you to (snow, fredrick, ydrasse)

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Titus

[Almost50]

I'll do one for Mohab!scum in a bit.

Did you do that? What was the result you came to?

Looking at the VCs alone, I postulate a snow Frederick Ydrasse team.

VOTE: Ydrasse

Because why not

Why not? Because you have Snow as scum too, and he has the bigger wagon of the two.

So, unless you cam to the conclusion that Ydrasse is still scum with mohab scum; I have no idea why you're voting ydrasse over either of the two leading wagons.

[Menalque]

NSG, what happens if the remaining slots that need to be filled haven't filled by the time deadline comes round? could we get a freeze on the deadline or something until those slots are filled?

[RCEnigma]

I like the Titus vote tbh.

[Almost50]

I like the Titus vote tbh.

I must be getting dumber by the minute, but I can't tell if by "the Titus vote" you're referring to hers on Ydrasse or Fredrick's on her.

[Menalque]

I like the Titus vote tbh.

I must be getting dumber by the minute, but I can't tell if by "the Titus vote" you're referring to hers on Ydrasse or Fredrick's on her.

tbf, I'm with the monkey on this

[Umlaut]

I'm not against Mohab's slot dying; I am, however, against killing an empty slot.

Why?

Fmpov, the issue is this: if snow is town, why are scum so committed to seeing her go through? Because I don’t think anyone else has been advocating that much for a snow!guillo other than me, and I know that I’m town and this is a town push on her. Whereas mohab very much only came up after the RCE wagon attempt had fallen apart

So if snow is town and mohab is scum, why aren’t the actual scum doing anything to resist mohab!flip or to back my snow push? Unless they’re entirely counting on my snow push as a defence of mohab, but that seems unlikely given that I can always change my mind and that putting all your eggs into the “letting a townie defend our scumbuddy” feels like a scumteam ceding far to much ground to be plausible

You’ve made a few arguments along these lines, and I find them very hard to evaluate in near mode: that is, I can’t actually decide how likely it is to see the wagons move the way they’ve moved if Snow is town, and how likely if Snow is scum. So I don’t know how much evidence is being provided or even whether it’s evidence at all. (What are scum doing to resist a Snow flip, if Snow is scum and Mohab is town?) So I fall back on far mode: are

arguments of this sort

reliable in general? And from that perspective I think that trying to make these kinds of analyses on day 1, with zero flips, is generally an exercise in futility. So though I know it’s annoying for me to say “I’m just ignoring your argument because I don’t trust it” that’s kind of what’s happening, sorry.

I like the Titus vote tbh.

I must be getting dumber by the minute, but I can't tell if by "the Titus vote" you're referring to hers on Ydrasse or Fredrick's on her.

n

ᵗʰed

[Something_Smart]

Why?

Honestly I don't know, it might just be a standard principle that I adhere to because I'm used to non-mountainous games where you need to get a claim first, but first of all replacement perspectives can be valuable, and second of all, lurkers are easy enough scum targets and it's a very easy scum tactic to try to force through an execution on a vacant slot before someone can replace in and turn it around. The only thing you really gain from that is you don't have to wait for a replacement to join and read up, but that's really just an out-of-game thing.

Also, Mohab is extremely LHF-y and while LHF can be scum that means we won't get a lot out of the flip (since scum probably won't go out of their way to save them) and if we wait for someone to replace in and do some real interactions and then we kill them and they flip scum, that's much better.

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Ydrasse

Because why not

This is

very weird.

We’re almost at deadline. You’ve expressed a belief that Snow is scum, and that the wagons are S v T. Mohab is the leading wagon, by a single vote. So you vote Ydrasse?

edited to fix tag errors.

-nsg

[Umlaut]

uggh tag errors

[Umlaut]

In fact

VOTE: Titus

Normally I’d be afraid of throwing the election by voting third-party, but since I’m reasonably okay with either candidate I’m not so worried about that.

[Menalque]

Actually I’m pretty okay with this

VOTE: titus