Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Ydrasse]

Maemuki (7):

Eevee

, Raya36,

Snowblaze

, Ydrasse, Something_Smart,

Titus

,

Umlaut

Snowblaze (6): RCEnigma, Montosh, Almost50,

Fredrick A Campbell

, Menalque, Maemuki

[Menalque]

I guess if there’s anything that’s town indicative that I think should be looked at it’s that I really didn’t push the snow wagon that hard compared to what I could have done, and scum!me tends towards extremes. So if I was trying to defend a buddy from the lynch I probably would have doubled down harder on the push against snow

Aware that this isn’t helpful as it’s self-meta but I wonder if eevee or Titus who are more aware of me as a player might know that about me

[Menalque]

I think my initial hottake is that the counter had scum on it which would mean that going through (RCE, montosh, A50) consecutively would be winning, but I would like to double check the S_S and ydrasse switches onto the mae wagon before I commit to that. It could be that they thought mae was going down anyway and so it would be best to bus and ride that out to the win given the accelerated schedule of this game

[Ydrasse]

reading through almost50's iso:

i think that if all three scum were on snowblaze, rcenigma/almost50 would make sense? throughout his iso, almost50 makes it clear that he Really Wants To Vote The Mohabslot (659, 794, 811 though it's the mildest imo of these three instances) but never does. 821, too, wherein almost asks someone to consider scum!mohab but... never like, makes any meaningful efforts to push anything there?

that, and almost actively tried to dismantle the scumreads/points against rcenigma and commited to a hard tr on rc. 513, 514, 542, 545, 559, 566, 569, to name a few. a lot of his iso is spent in an effort of defending his tr who admittedly doesn't look too good now, having been a vote on someone who is now confirmed town.

just seems... performative, in the way they avoid voting mohab and instead vote snow every single time it's brought into question what he should think/do. so yeah.

VOTE: almost50

will read through the other non-confirmed people right now but i started here and i don't see a reason not to put my vote here atm.

[Eevee]

Spoiler:

The play is sold out!

Not gonna lie, I think it's just Menalque here, although I will consult Eve about it.

~Eva

[Raya36]

I definitely agree at least 1 scum was on the counter wagon. I'm also in the same point of view where there are 6 possible people to be scum. So that means fmpov there's [RCEnigma, Montosh, Almost50, Menalque]

[Umlaut]

Votecount 1.Final

Maemuki

.............

(7):

Eevee

(622), Raya36 (634),

Snowblaze

(646), Ydrasse (658), Something_Smart (839),

Titus

(882),

Umlaut

(903)

Snowblaze

...........

(6):

RCEnigma (672), Montosh (785), Almost50 (814),

Fredrick A Campbell

(824), Menalque (852),

Maemuki

(878)

I'm not going to say it's impossible that scum would bus here but it's a very risky play and something we can revisit in lylo if necessary. For now I'm giving provisional town status to Raya, Ydrasse, S_S.

Menalque was willing to abandon the Snowblaze wagon for Titus with me, albeit temporarily, even though it made it more likely the Mohamuki lynch went through. That's not the safest of scum moves and I think I want to give Menalque some townpoints for that.

That leaves {RCEnigma, Montosh, Almost50}. Haven't paid very close attention to any of these so far (I think I recall saying the other day that RCE was a townlean but I literally don't remember why) and need to go back and look closer at them today.

[Menalque]

If I must die, so be it, I think there’s still good chances of winning this with 2 guillotines left over the next 2 days

[Menalque]

That was @eva specifically you both somehow ninja’d me

[Titus]

Evee, let's do some VCA now that we got a whole lot of data. I'll do mine tmo.

Melanque, I don't care for meta.

[Raya36]

I guess if there’s anything that’s town indicative that I think should be looked at it’s that I really didn’t push the snow wagon that hard compared to what I could have done, and scum!me tends towards extremes. So if I was trying to defend a buddy from the lynch I probably would have doubled down harder on the push against snow

Aware that this isn’t helpful as it’s self-meta but I wonder if eevee or Titus who are more aware of me as a player might know that about me

Why are you already pre-defending yourself?

[Menalque]

I guess if there’s anything that’s town indicative that I think should be looked at it’s that I really didn’t push the snow wagon that hard compared to what I could have done, and scum!me tends towards extremes. So if I was trying to defend a buddy from the lynch I probably would have doubled down harder on the push against snow

Aware that this isn’t helpful as it’s self-meta but I wonder if eevee or Titus who are more aware of me as a player might know that about me

Why are you already pre-defending yourself?

...because I’m aware of how awful I look based on D1 because I’m not an idiot?

[Raya36]

I think it is also likely at least 1 scum was on the Mae wagon. What do you guys think if this? I doubt all 3 scum were on the counter and I feel like at least 1 would be distancing by being on the wagon. If so that makes Ydrasse and S-S candidates fmpov.

[Titus]

I guess if there’s anything that’s town indicative that I think should be looked at it’s that I really didn’t push the snow wagon that hard compared to what I could have done, and scum!me tends towards extremes. So if I was trying to defend a buddy from the lynch I probably would have doubled down harder on the push against snow

Aware that this isn’t helpful as it’s self-meta but I wonder if eevee or Titus who are more aware of me as a player might know that about me

Why are you already pre-defending yourself?

...because I’m aware of how awful I look based on D1 because I’m not an idiot?

I actually haven't read his defense in detail but I don't find the fact he's defending himself as scummy.

[Raya36]

I guess if there’s anything that’s town indicative that I think should be looked at it’s that I really didn’t push the snow wagon that hard compared to what I could have done, and scum!me tends towards extremes. So if I was trying to defend a buddy from the lynch I probably would have doubled down harder on the push against snow

Aware that this isn’t helpful as it’s self-meta but I wonder if eevee or Titus who are more aware of me as a player might know that about me

Why are you already pre-defending yourself?

...because I’m aware of how awful I look based on D1 because I’m not an idiot?

But wouldn't it make more sense to let someone find that for themselves instead of jumping in with a self defense?

[Raya36]

Also if you're scum I think you're playing the smart move by jumping in and taking a leading role in D2 hunting. Scum have a lot to lose today and have to do everything they can to not get eliminated

[Eevee]

That was @eva specifically you both somehow ninja’d me

Don't get me wrong, I definitely don't want to fast to quick-guillotine you, or anyone for that matter! Who's your top pick for scum right now?

~Eva

[Eevee]

That was @eva specifically you both somehow ninja’d me

Don't get me wrong, I definitely don't want to quick-guillotine you, or anyone for that matter! Who's your top pick for scum right now?

~Eva

Oops

[Menalque]

I guess if there’s anything that’s town indicative that I think should be looked at it’s that I really didn’t push the snow wagon that hard compared to what I could have done, and scum!me tends towards extremes. So if I was trying to defend a buddy from the lynch I probably would have doubled down harder on the push against snow

Aware that this isn’t helpful as it’s self-meta but I wonder if eevee or Titus who are more aware of me as a player might know that about me

Why are you already pre-defending yourself?

...because I’m aware of how awful I look based on D1 because I’m not an idiot?

But wouldn't it make more sense to let someone find that for themselves instead of jumping in with a self defense?

What’s the advantage in doing that regardless of my alignment? If I’m town, then I know that the thing I would have done differently is I would have probably tried harder to save my scumbuddy (given the importance of not losing to a double guillo on D1 followed by D2) and counted on the WIFOM of “would mena really tried this hard to save their scumbuddy???” to try and save myself on D2, ad given that I know this is what’s different about how I’d approach this as scum I might as well share that. If I’m scum, then obviously I chose to play it that way but I’d have come up with an explanation overnight for why I acted that way that I might as well share.

In either case there’s also a strong motivation to not be guillo’d today in that if I’m town it means we can’t insta-win, whereas if I’m scum it’s an insta-loss.

[Menalque]

That was @eva specifically you both somehow ninja’d me

Don't get me wrong, I definitely don't want to quick-guillotine you, or anyone for that matter! Who's your top pick for scum right now?

~Eva

Oops

lul

Also, idk. I didn’t bother to read through overnight because I was feeling a bit bummed over being totally wrong on D1 and also because while I could predict a couple of the town reveals (you, snow, umlaut was very likely) I didn’t know who the others would be and it felt pointless to start doing analysis without all of the information, especially as the deadlines are like insanely long for this game meaning there’ll definitely be time for it during the day phase.

[Menalque]

My suspicion is that there is a scum in (RCE, montosh, A50) but I’d like to double check what the flow of the wagon was and to see if either of (ydrasse, S_S) look like scum bailing onto a sure thing rather than resisting it

There is a thought that I had that I think is likely quite accurate in my ISO given mohab!flip, lemme find it

[Menalque]

Fmpov, the issue is this: if snow is town, why are scum so committed to seeing her go through? Because I don’t think anyone else has been advocating that much for a snow!guillo other than me, and I know that I’m town and this is a town push on her. Whereas mohab very much only came up after the RCE wagon attempt had fallen apart

So if snow is town and mohab is scum, why aren’t the actual scum doing anything to resist mohab!flip or to back my snow push? Unless they’re entirely counting on my snow push as a defence of mohab, but that seems unlikely given that I can always change my mind and that putting all your eggs into the “letting a townie defend our scumbuddy” feels like a scumteam ceding far to much ground to be plausible

Yeah, this one

So with this knowledge, I now think this is exactly what was happening on D1 and I think I dismissed it too quickly

[Raya36]

I guess if there’s anything that’s town indicative that I think should be looked at it’s that I really didn’t push the snow wagon that hard compared to what I could have done, and scum!me tends towards extremes. So if I was trying to defend a buddy from the lynch I probably would have doubled down harder on the push against snow

Aware that this isn’t helpful as it’s self-meta but I wonder if eevee or Titus who are more aware of me as a player might know that about me

Why are you already pre-defending yourself?

...because I’m aware of how awful I look based on D1 because I’m not an idiot?

But wouldn't it make more sense to let someone find that for themselves instead of jumping in with a self defense?

What’s the advantage in doing that regardless of my alignment? If I’m town, then I know that the thing I would have done differently is I would have probably tried harder to save my scumbuddy (given the importance of not losing to a double guillo on D1 followed by D2) and counted on the WIFOM of “would mena really tried this hard to save their scumbuddy???” to try and save myself on D2, ad given that I know this is what’s different about how I’d approach this as scum I might as well share that. If I’m scum, then obviously I chose to play it that way but I’d have come up with an explanation overnight for why I acted that way that I might as well share.

In either case there’s also a strong motivation to not be guillo’d today in that if I’m town it means we can’t insta-win, whereas if I’m scum it’s an insta-loss.

The stakes are much much higher for scum right now. You even said something about not being all that upset about being mis-eliminated I believe? It doesnt make sense to me to jump in with a self-defence. It's much more advantageous to give people a chance to come to that conclusion without your help because by being the one stating it about yourself causes it to lose credit. Then there's extra added wifom about you being the one saying it. It's also overdefensive in my opinion.

[Raya36]

Fmpov, the issue is this: if snow is town, why are scum so committed to seeing her go through? Because I don’t think anyone else has been advocating that much for a snow!guillo other than me, and I know that I’m town and this is a town push on her. Whereas mohab very much only came up after the RCE wagon attempt had fallen apart

So if snow is town and mohab is scum, why aren’t the actual scum doing anything to resist mohab!flip or to back my snow push? Unless they’re entirely counting on my snow push as a defence of mohab, but that seems unlikely given that I can always change my mind and that putting all your eggs into the “letting a townie defend our scumbuddy” feels like a scumteam ceding far to much ground to be plausible

Yeah, this one

So with this knowledge, I now think this is exactly what was happening on D1 and I think I dismissed it too quickly

If you are town I would agree that this is probably correct

[Menalque]

But I’m not really convinced my push on snow was hard enough for me to have entirely sold townies on it (especially as it was wrong lol) so I think scum were probably supporting it with their votes but not their voices to let me take the heat for it today

So yeah, (RCE, montosh, A50) seems like it almost definitely has a scum the more I think about it, and fmpov it’s just figuring out where or if there’s both there. If there are two, I’d say it’s (RCE, A50) based on A50 coming in to defuse the RCE wagon

But if it’s just one... I still think maybe the monkey is more likely and was white knighting RCE?