Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[northsidegal]

Votecount 2.2

Almost50

............

(1):

Ydrasse (953)

RCEnigma

............

(1):

Fredrick A Campbell (988)

Not Voting

..........

(10):

Umlaut, Something_Smart, Eevee, Snowblaze, Menalque, RCEnigma, Montosh, Titus, Raya36, Almost50

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

[Snowblaze]

Yay, I’m confirmed town! *purrs* Although it doesn’t help that literally everyone I could have called a confident townread after yesterday also is.

I like the picture, Eve (Eva? Eevee?).

Kind of agree with Umlaut, I’m paranoid about double-bussing. Again, the confirmation off-wagon is making me paranoid, and the fact I’m confirmed is a bit... well, this is WIFOM, but if scum were all on my wagon I’d think they could have left me unconfirmed to try and push the narrative that the wagons were SvS. Or maybe they just felt sorry for me after yesterday? But, yeah, it’s unlikely. Just don’t lock everyone on the Maemuki wagon as town. Just in case.


Will try and come up with some proper reads soon, although I may be a bit lazier now my life no longer depends on it!

[Snowblaze]

Off the top of my head, without reading back through anything since the confirmations:

A50 looks a lot worse after that scumflip; his case for Fredrick to vote me is still bad.

I actually vaguely townlean Montosh, although a lot of that is “would scum really be blatant as to agree strongly with their hammered partner’s post in twilight” (No, I don’t think so, in most cases at least).

Menalque... I kind of agree with Eve on this, my gut says he’s town but my brain says taking him to ElLo is a Bad Idea. I just feel like scum would

know

that even if they miseliminated me Maemuki would almost certainly be next and then they’d still be looking terrible...

which would imply they were bussing.

Having said that, I think I’m okay with Ydrasse and I don’t have a problem with Raya either. Although I will need to make sure I’m not getting those townleans purely from their defence of me yesterday.

RCE and S_S I’m not sure on at all, I’d need to read back to work that out.

[RCEnigma]

Looking at the VCs alone, I postulate a snow Frederick Ydrasse team.

Why was ydrasse in this pool and was it a team read or all individual?

[Snowblaze]

@S_S, can you explain your progression on me yesterday? Why did you go from voting me in 671 to townreading me by 837?

[Raya36]

<Raya>
<Ydrasse, S_S>
<RCE>
<Montosh, Menalque, A50>

is where I'm at, pending a read of the games Menalque linked. Also want to point out, it's good if we get the unconfirmed to provide reads/make pushes, but let the final decision go with us. Yes? Yes?

~Eva

I agree. Everyone needs to participate but the final decision is with the townblock

[Menalque]

VOTE: S_S

[Titus]

I'll do my VCA later today I hope.

Scum confirming both me and Snowblaze suggests either or both of the following are true:

1) Scum are unaware of me as a player and that I would lean Snowblaze town but still want to rule out SvS.

2) The VCA is fucked with so confirming Snowblaze sends me down the wrong path.

[Titus]

Yeah, I need my PC to color the VCs and do subs. It's too hard on mobile to even eyeball due to the number of subs.

[Something_Smart]

Something_Smart when you get here let me know how you feel about Almo

~Eve

He sure is a player in this game.

[Something_Smart]

Sorry, I've had a very busy weekend. I will reread some of the pages around the rise of the Mohab wagon and get back to you with a better answer.

[Montosh]

So the thing is

We shouldn't just lynch someone today "because we're going to do it anyway" unless we actually believe they're the most likely scum, because we stand to win the game today if we guess correctly. And as long as

both

buddies weren't busing we have a decent chance of guessing correctly just by choosing the scummiest from the Snowblaze wagon.

I am a bit paranoid on further reflection that it would actually be a really cute scum strat to double-bus here because we have no other way of getting investigation results, so if town could be convinced that was "impossible" then scum have just won the game even with five clears as we lynch one Snowblaze voter after another. Seeing one of our clears is off the Mohab wagon does not make me feel any less paranoid in that regard, and I want to keep that in mind as at least a possibility, but I'm still willing to operate today on the more likely scenario that that's not what happened.

Yeah I don't think being on the Mae wagon absolutely exonerates anyone. It could be a good strategy. I'm inclined to think for now though that you were right initially and we should focus on the snow wagon, largely just because those unconfirmed from it (Raya, Ydrasse and S_S) are just less scummy than some on the snow wagon.

And I just feel like there was enough resistance to the Mohab/Mae wagon to think that scum was at least partially involved in the snow/Titus counterwagons. This is especially notable given how many people scum-read that slow from basically RVS.

I'm not convinced both scum weren't bussing but I think it's not as likely as the alternative.

VOTE: Menalque

On the snow wagon, hopped on the Titus wagon at one point. Consistently defended mohab and started out intentionally playing so scummy that I could see it being a play.

I see little benefit to leaving this slot alive. If they're town, then it's going to be a huge lynchbait target for the scum so they can escape. If they are scum, then they're going to get out of here and escape at the first opportunity. Resolving this slot now rather than later seems like a good idea to me.

[Montosh]

I'm not sure why scum confirmed snow. It would depend how the day went but it's not outside the realm of possibility that I'd keep pushing them despite the flip, and I don't think I was the only one. That is the one thing that makes me paranoid that scum might be trying to focus attention off the Mae wagon by making it explicit that the snow wagon was a wagon on town.

[Menalque]

If I’m scum, why do you think I would confirm snow?

[Almost50]

Personally, I don't see a single benefit to me making any sort of effort. I do look bad and I know it. That means if I try to push someone from the Snow wagon I am being a hypocrite. If I push someone on the Mae wagon I am protecting myself and my partner. If I go undecided I am demotivated scum. I literally can't do shit now, and I think I'll be eliminated either today or tomorrow if we don't actually hit scum.

Hell even my attempt to get back into the game fell on deaf ears. I asked why scum!me would confirm Fred, and why would I have been so blatantly defending my "proposed scum p" RCE, and nobody responded, so I get the feeling anything I say "can and will be used against me", so to speak.

[RCEnigma]

Personally, I don't see a single benefit to me making any sort of effort. I do look bad and I know it. That means if I try to push someone from the Snow wagon I am being a hypocrite. If I push someone on the Mae wagon I am protecting myself and my partner. If I go undecided I am demotivated scum. I literally can't do shit now, and I think I'll be eliminated either today or tomorrow if we don't actually hit scum.

Hell even my attempt to get back into the game fell on deaf ears. I asked why scum!me would confirm Fred, and why would I have been so blatantly defending my "proposed scum p" RCE, and nobody responded, so I get the feeling anything I say "can and will be used against me", so to speak.

I thought it was a fair point but the game is like... In the hands of the confirmed now. So there isn't incentive for those in the pool to hunt when the confirmed will just do it and have the final say.

I felt the same way with Titus blowing my questions off. If I'm eliminated I'm eliminated it's cool.

[Titus]

I felt the same way with Titus blowing my questions off. If I'm eliminated I'm eliminated it's cool.

If anyone feels like I blew them off, it's not deliberate. I have had real life explode.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

To make the confirmed's job easier, I ask all the unconfirmed town give us a reason to townread them and all the unconfirmed scum give us a reason to scumread them.

[Titus]

This game is taking a back seat because there are 4 other conftown.

[Snowblaze]

I think I’ve discovered yet another problem with being wagoned and nearly eliminated. It makes me feel bad for anyone else who comes remotely close to death, which is a concern because those people could be scum and I’d end up defending them purely from sympathy.

Anyway, to answer your questions, A50: scum!you confirms Fredrick to maximise the potential pool of miseliminations by not being forced to defend non-confirmed town (yes, this argument could also be applied to RCE but he’s not as widely townread as Fredrick was, plus he could still be scum).

And you would blatantly defend RCE, if he is your partner, because you really need to make sure he isn’t eliminated to avoid exactly the position you’re in now.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'm currently townreading RCEnigma for [urr=viewtopic.php?f=51&t=83553&start=327]attempting to figure out my alignment[/url] and not being too concerned about being executed. If further elaboration is wanting, you could ask for it.

Meanwhile, I'm starting to think that Menalque appears to be extremely concerned about being executed so...

VOTE: Menalque

[Fredrick A Campbell]

EBWOP: I'm currently townreading RCEnigma for attempting to figure out my alignment and not being too concerned about being executed. If further elaboration is wanting, you could ask for it.

Meanwhile, I'm starting to think that Menalque appears to be extremely concerned about being executed so...

VOTE: Menalque

[Snowblaze]

So, thoughts.

Raya and Ydrasse both commited to townreading me and eliminating Mohab/Maemuki. Neither changed their mind despite being given plenty of opportunities to do so. If either of them is scum they were committing to the bus there.

It's pretty bad strategy for only one scum to bus their partner in this setup: they're sacrificing a member and confirming five town in exchange for towncred for one of them which is irrelevant if the other is eliminated. So I'm willing to say that Raya and Ydrasse are the same alignment, and that alignment is

probably

town.

Montosh I... think I'm okay with. I can understand both his and his predecessor's reasons for scumreading me, even if they were wrong (incidentally, have I mentioned I love being confirmed town so I can say these things without being scumread for them?) and again I just don't think scum, knowing how Maemuki is about to flip, would quote one of her posts and agree with it that much.

Something_Smart I'm not so sure I like. He's defending me in 633, but then is perfectly willing to vote me in 671. Then there's the whole "I don't mind eliminating Mohab but I'm not voting for him", and despite saying he townreads me he doesn't vote Mohab until I specifically ask him to.

iirc, after that vote, both wagons were at E-2 with Umlaut, Menalque and Mohab off-wagon. It was pretty clear that Menalque would vote for me and Umlaut for Mohab, and Mohab certainly wouldn't have been self-voting, so if it wasn't for the extension and then Titus switching over I would have been eliminated. So, unlike Raya and Ydrasse, scum!S_S in this position wasn't committing to a bus, he was distancing himself from a miselimination and his partner Mohab.

Menalque... I don't even know where I am on Menalque. On the surface he looks pretty terrible, but scum!Menalque would have known that after my miselimination there's a fair chance Mohab is next and he won't have time to escape before he's eliminated after the scumflip, but... wait, this is all WIFOM which isn't getting me anywhere. I don't know. I think there are others more likely to flip scum, but I also think taking him to ElLo is a Bad Idea.

RCE... still "confused null" here, I think. Will try and work on getting a more concrete impression.

And yeah, I still scumread A50 for 823. Plus the towncred he got for admitting to being biased against Mohab now looks like a perfect way to go "I think she's scum but I'm not voting her because Reasons".

[Eevee]

There’s a lot of benefit to the unconfirmed giving reads/making pushes btw, it’s not just me wanting to be lazy. If we do all the solving, scum don’t have to give content and content is always good. Also I think their stances today are especially important.

~Eva

[Eevee]

One question though: I said I only had TWO confident TRs. One of them (Fred) is now confirmed. Why would scum me opt to confirm Fred here? Like, I am very much self-aware (people who played against scum!me would confirm) and if I wanted to defend not one, but TWO of my scum!buddies (RCE & Mae) that blatantly then the very least I could have done is keep Fred in the suspects pool.

I don’t get it? What does scum!you have to lose by confirming Fred here? Why does this strongly point away from you?

~Eva