Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Snowblaze]

I'll take the free pagetop, anyway!

So, um, yeah. I'm at the point where I do actually have enough time to devote to this game, but I've completely lost track of what's going on. I'll do a proper catchup and work out what my reads are tomorrow.

[Umlaut]

Yeah I'm in pretty much the same place as Snowblaze here.

Does anyone know the current VC?

[northsidegal]

Votecount 2.6

Almost50

............

(3):

Ydrasse (953), Umlaut (1080), Raya36 (1081)

Menalque

............

(2):

Montosh (1036), RCEnigma (1102)

Ydrasse

.............

(2):

Almost50 (1156), Titus (1161)

Something_Smart

.....

(1):

Fredrick A Campbell (1267)

Montosh

.............

(1):

Menalque (1284)

RCEnigma

............

(1):

Eevee (1299)

Not Voting

..........

(2):

Something_Smart, Snowblaze

With 12 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-30 18:57:59).

[Eevee]

If it’s helpful, here’s Eve’s case on Snow:

i don't like this post because if you're actually scared of mafia not knowing about this yet by saying "I don't want to talk more about this until nsg confirma something" - then why make this post at all? you're telling mafia they could win by the start of D3 - that's definitely gonna get them thinking and would probably make them realise what you're talking about if they hadn't already - makes me think you made this more for show than actually being concerned about that

well tbh the rep out from Porkens is also very scum indicative but i've been wanting to not bring that up because using reps is kinda dirty and all that - but i feel like i have to at this point for the sake of transparency

Eevii is fine

~Eve

What about the replace-out is scum indicative?

Porkens is nervous when playing scum and doesn't seem to enjoy it as much as town - see his last scum game (treestump 1)

secondly he /inned to two more games straight after replacing out of this one

i'll have a look at snow now Menalque

~Eve

Although I agreed with both points at some point, I don’t know how significant the first one is anymore. The second one I guess I agree with? Maybe? But there was a period when the game was very slow so Porkens might have found this game boring.

~Eva

[RCEnigma]

I don't have anything to respond to but if I'm executed over my predecessor choosing other games over this one then screw repping into games.

[Eevee]

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... lag_Gambit

@eva

I don’t think this is impossible, but less likely because I made sure to mention it later, and without scum thinking we were gonna think that way, it should be less appealing? But the problem is the data is all over the place. Still, I’ll try and look at it soon to see if I can find anything good.

~Eva

[Eevee]

I don't have anything to respond to but if I'm executed over my predecessor choosing other games over this one then screw repping into games.

No sorry, you’re right; this isn’t fair to you.

UNVOTE:

I’m probably against RCE today.

~Eva

[Eevee]

If it’s helpful, here’s Eve’s case on RCE:

EBWOP

Dunno what I was thinking there.

~Eva

[Eevee]

VOTE: Menalque

[Menalque]

*sigh*

VOTE: menalque

[Umlaut]

I'm too lazy to go back and reread everything I skimmed the first time, someone tell me why Menalque is scum and why A50 isn't.

[Menalque]

I'm too lazy to go back and reread everything I skimmed the first time, someone tell me why Menalque is scum and why A50 isn't.

Because I am the one who was ultimately responsible for driving the snow wagon, and while I think I’ve done more or less everything in my power to show I’m town since then, people can’t get over it. Which, honestly? Fair enough, I know it’s really hard making calls like that and the idea of losing to me if I were scum is, I can only assume, eating away at the back of the mind of every townie.

I think the problem is that so long as I’m in the game, people like Eva are going to be worried I’m pulling one over on them, and seeing as I’m not confident on who we should flip today, I think the best thing is honestly to flip me to confirm me, because if we were to guillo two others and be wrong first, the level of paranoia I think the remaining town would have on me in gylo would be so high that I kind of doubt they’d be able to see I’m town there (if they can’t already see it confidently by now)

[Menalque]

I think S_S and montosh are the two scummiest slots, probably.

I don’t know what I think of titus’ VCA, but it’s probably worth taking into consideration at the least, which means think about A50/ydrasse. I don’t really scumread either on play but that’s a low confidence read.

RCE is also scummy and I think individually comes up right after S_S and montosh. I really hated his AtE today but it may well be genuine.

Sorry not to be more help

[Umlaut]

I'm explicitly not interested in Menalque today. Lynch someone else please.

(Menalque, feel free to crow in the postgame about pocketing me if you're scum)

[Menalque]

I really don’t think it’s healthy for the gamestate for me to survive today. I’m glad you have me as town, I’m glad titus is clearing me vía VCA, but everyone else is *begrudgingly* town on me at best, and I have faith in this town to successfully re-evaluate after my flip and to find one of the two remaining scum in the 5 remaining names.

[Umlaut]

If we get scum today then there is no gamestate for it to be unhealthy for.

[Menalque]

Okay, and if I felt confident on us hitting scum today then sure, I getchu. But I don’t really because I don’t think anyone is like *really, really scummy*. So if we don’t do me today, and we miss (40%EV of a win if we do shoot correct today) then we go to tomorrow where if I’m still not the guillo we have a 50%EV. But if we do miss other of those shots, then despite having a 66% EV of hitting on D4, I think the bias on my slot and discomfort means I’ll be disproportionately more voteable than the actual scum are, meaning the odds are much lower. Also, I guess that should actually be 50% EV D4 from anyone who isn’t me, which makes it /even worse/ given that I think people will be biased towards voting me.

If I die today, then yes, we don’t get the 40% EV shot at an autowin, that’s true. But it does remove the most “obvscum” slot that I think is throwing people like eevee off. So I think that actually improves EV, as we’d still be in with 50% EV D4 but there wouldn’t be the bait slot that is me to skew perceptions

[Eevee]

I. Don't. Know !! I was talking to Eve earlier and we agreed in thinking even if Menalque's wrong, it's a shot we have to take. And we can't really agree on our more obscure reads.

What's the case on A50? Yesterday, he pushed Snow, but so did many other people, and today, he made a few posts that made people not like him, but I don't know if that's inherently scummy? Umlaut, where do you want to go?

~Eva

[Raya36]

I really don't want to go for Menalque today. I don't think their stance right now comes from scum

[Umlaut]

I'm not super tied to A50 specifically, but I want to go somewhere on the Snowblaze wagon and not Menalque. I could do Montosh but I haven't seen anything I specifically didn't like there where I have from A50. Maaaaybe RCE, but I'm willing to put a decent amount of stock in the idea that we didn't see two mafia both play the "asking mech questions for towncred" game.

[Raya36]

I. Don't. Know !! I was talking to Eve earlier and we agreed in thinking even if Menalque's wrong, it's a shot we have to take. And we can't really agree on our more obscure reads.

What's the case on A50? Yesterday, he pushed Snow, but so did many other people, and today, he made a few posts that made people not like him, but I don't know if that's inherently scummy? Umlaut, where do you want to go?

~Eva

It was the whole poor me act as someone else called it that he started today. And then when he was praising my scum game it felt like he was trying to pocket me and change my mind on him

[Eevee]

Spoiler:

Or maybe...it's S_S or something... Much lost. Much confusion.

~Eva

p-edit: hmm, okay...

[Titus]

I really don’t think it’s healthy for the gamestate for me to survive today. I’m glad you have me as town, I’m glad titus is clearing me vía VCA, but everyone else is *begrudgingly* town on me at best, and I have faith in this town to successfully re-evaluate after my flip and to find one of the two remaining scum in the 5 remaining names.

I'm not dying and I'm not voting you. So whoever else needs to reevaluate can do so at their own pace. Capiche?

[Eevee]

I went through D2 roughly and I think all confirmed apart from S_S has been okay with A50 dying so unless that's the exact team ??/?/ But S_S is also not doing much to shift it away from S_S so maybe that still counts. I'd say gamestate-wise, it's not A50.

~Eva

[Eevee]

VOTE: Ydrasse

~Eva