Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Menalque]

That feels a lot like you’re townreading me, ydrasse

[Ydrasse]

it's me getting down on one knee and offering you a ring pop if you vote a50.

[Menalque]

Ngl while the “let the unconfirmed make pushes” was and is a reasonable posture to take, the lack of conftown throughout the majority of this day is annoying

For instance, the fact that I’m not sure a single conftown has voiced a take on whether scum were more likely to bus or to be supporting the snow wagon, let alone had a conversation with me about it

So I’m here like “oh, convenient that most of the mae wagon thinks scum would have done one on one off or supported snow, but the snow wagon as far as I can tell think that a bus is very plausible”

Actually now I think about it it makes more sense, as the town on either side would expect scum to have done the opposite thing to what they did? Maybe idk. We probably should have ended this day like 5 days ago

[Fredrick A Campbell]

it's me getting down on one knee and offering you a ring pop if you vote a50.

Actually, you currently only have 3 votes on you because Umlaut and Eevee switched their votes from you to Almost50.

[Menalque]

Fredrick, what do you think?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Ngl while the “let the unconfirmed make pushes” was and is a reasonable posture to take, the lack of conftown throughout the majority of this day is annoying

For instance, the fact that I’m not sure a single conftown has voiced a take on whether scum were more likely to bus or to be supporting the snow wagon, let alone had a conversation with me about it

So I’m here like “oh, convenient that most of the mae wagon thinks scum would have done one on one off or supported snow, but the snow wagon as far as I can tell think that a bus is very plausible”

Actually now I think about it it makes more sense, as the town on either side would expect scum to have done the opposite thing to what they did? Maybe idk. We probably should have ended this day like 5 days ago

In my opinion, both are likely and should be considered.

[Menalque]

Why do you prefer the A50 wagon to the ydrasse wagon?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Why do you prefer the A50 wagon to the ydrasse wagon?

I don't know the answer to this question myself.

[Menalque]

VOTE: A50

[Umlaut]

it's me getting down on one knee and offering you a ring pop if you vote a50.

Hey,

I'm

supposed to be the one taking bribes here

[Ydrasse]

Spoiler:

pick a flavor, everyone.

[Menalque]

God I’m gonna kick myself so hard if I’m changing off scum into town here

[Titus]

I am strongly against an A50 lynch but I am aware of my own early game limitations. I have said my piece defending A50 and prosecuting Ydrasse. However, if we do lynch wrong, I would rather it be on A50 as it narrows down my VCA pool. There is also a chance I am wrong.

So carry on even though I disagree.

[Snowblaze]

Yes, I know, I’ve been abusing my conftown status to lurk until deadline. Oh well. Time to actually make a decision. Let me skim through some ISOs first.

[Snowblaze]

ISOs skimmed through; I’m not strongly townreading either and I can’t be bothered to go through in more detail.

Unofficial Vote Count:

Almost50 5 (Ydrasse, Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Eevee, Menalque)
Ydrasse 2 (Almost50, Titus)
Menalque 2 (Montosh, RCEnigma)
Raya36 1 (Something_Smart)
Not voting: Snowblaze, Raya36

I would be concerned about the rapid switch from Ydrasse to A50, but most of the people who switched are confirmed town!

Skimming through the official vote counts for today, looking in particular at unconfirmed:

Ydrasse and Menalque have consistently voted A50 while he was a major wagon.

A50 and Menalque have consistently voted Ydrasse while she was a major wagon.

Raya was on the earlier A50 wagon, but not the current one.

So they’re not scum with each other, and unlikely to be scum with Menalque.

[Snowblaze]

For instance, the fact that I’m not sure a single conftown has voiced a take on whether scum were more likely to bus or to be supporting the snow wagon, let alone had a conversation with me about it

1392 doesn’t count, then?

[Eevee]

I thought it was slight overjustification, and something about how hard she was going at it seemed weird - almost like she wanted to pitch us this rather than scumreading him. Also, this type of analysis matches her scumgame.

Honestly, I don't know anymore, I just want to end the day.

~Eva

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Looking back at when the Snowblaze wagon first started, HoldenGolden, who has been replaced by Montosh, made a case against Snowblaze. I piled my vote on. Snowblaze now has two votes on her. Next, Menalque places a vote on Snowblaze and Eevee places the fourth vote on Snowblaze before switching to RCEnigma. Ydrasse comes along and places another vote on Snowblaze. Snowblaze, with four votes, was at L-3. Is it possible the scum-team is Menalque, Ydrasse and Mohab500 (replaced by Maemuki)?

Looking back on the votecount, RCEnigma and HoldenGolden (replaced by Montosh) were tied with three votes. Mohab500, whom we now know to be scum, placed her vote on RCEnigma. Is Montosh scum with Maemuki instead? Ydrasse placed her vote on Raya36. The vote count at this point would have been:

RCEnigma (4) - Eevee (292), Snowblaze (415), Menalque (433), Mohab500 (502)
HoldenGolden (3) - Umlaut (402), Raya36 (495), Fredrick A Campbell (498)
Raya36 (2) - RCEnigma (497), Ydrasse (506)
Menalque (1) - HoldenGolden (129)

This is the vote composition right before HoldenGolden (replaced by Montosh) places his first vote on Snowblaze, in the first paragraph of this post. I just thought the vote composition right before the Snowblaze wagon occurred may be useful to figure alignments from the first paragraph I wrote.

[RCEnigma]

It implies that the snow wagon was created to deflect from Mohab and set me up as the TvS counterwagon to snow that ultimately eliminated town.

This would have been discussed in the PT if this was the plan scum where going for but Montosh came in with a light scumread on me that shifted throughout his read up.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

It implies that the snow wagon was created to deflect from Mohab and set me up as the TvS counterwagon to snow that ultimately eliminated town.

This would have been discussed in the PT if this was the plan scum where going for but Montosh came in with a light scumread on me that shifted throughout his read up.

Had the wagon on Mohab500 even started at this point?

[Raya36]

I still don't like it but it's better than ydrasse or menalque

VOTE: A50

A50 is at E-1

[RCEnigma]

It hadn't, so it wouldn't be to deflect from Mohab it would be to deflect from holden(Montosh) I think the pairing I said that makes sense was Montosh + ydrasse but TBH ydrasse and Montosh mutually townreading each other makes reading back.

The chain of events from ydrasse' vote on Raya going forward are:
-Ydrasse disapproves of both leading wagons (mine & Holden's) and light defends holden
- Montosh comes to a general town!ydrasse conclusion in initial catch up
-engages briefly with ydrasse like they were a townread
-ydrasse reciprocates D2
-Montosh avoids ydrasse wagon D2 in favor of menalque even when the wagon popularity decreases.

Those all feel pretty natural and ydrasse comes out of it looking townier to me than Montosh but I'd buy both of them as town. Montosh could be scum independent of ydrasse and isoing them both side by side brought up some questions about Montosh's read on SS in the context of how he's engaged with Ydrasse as town but not with SS in any meaningful way but has SS higher in his most recent readslist.

Also forgot to add that this is all in the context of the transition away from my wagon day 1 at it's height with at least 1 confirmed scum already on board.

Frederick I'm directing this mostly at you but I guess it's to everyone. The optimal play for scum is to elim town day 1 agreed? Fmpov my wagon is on town and spearheaded by two now confirmed townies with conf scum trailing. If Holden is scum and being counterwagoned what is the risk/reward for joining Mohab on my wagon that town is already pushing for?

A50 was the only person to advocate for me at the time. I'm finding it hard to believe scum!A50 would derail a town on town wagon without another avenue to push at the time. I don't think town!A50 is an impenetrable roadblock for scum at that point either.

[RCEnigma]

If I'm wrong and it's A50 then we just win and I'll have been carried which is fine but I'm pretty positive 2 of 3 scum lie in Raya, menalque, SS.

[RCEnigma]

If I'm wrong and it's A50 then we just win and I'll have been carried which is fine but I'm pretty positive 2 of 3 scum lie in Raya, menalque, SS.

[RCEnigma]

If I'm wrong and it's A50 then we just win and I'll have been carried which is fine but I'm pretty positive 2 of 3 scum lie in Raya, menalque, SS.