Open 788 - Crossfire - Game Over


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Post Post #475 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:05 am

Post by innocentvillager »

In post 414, Almost50 wrote:
In post 348, Marksman wrote:How exactly is that a scumclaim?
Rushing the first elimination is almost always one. It denies people the chance to develop their reads and consider different possibilities. If it was up to me I'd say we eliminate around the 6th day and then every 18-24 hours from then on, but I don't own the thread and I can't force my theories on everyone else.
Yeah just because someone has a different idea of how to play this doesn't mean they're scum (??), I can't really understand this line of thought, I also think town needs to dunk someone ASAP to start getting associations.
In post 416, Almost50 wrote:
In post 359, innocentvillager wrote:and not a soul other than me is defending the spicer wagon which has been sitting at L-2.
Are you saying ALL scum (or at least 3) were on it at it's peak??
Not necessarily?? There could be scum, but also the absence of any defense, redirection,
In post 417, Almost50 wrote:
In post 360, innocentvillager wrote:like what scum comes in late and goes "HURR DURR I'M LATE WHO SHOULD I WAGON GUYS" and just ghosts the game without anything else
Inexperienced scum, or players known to be trolls. Now I dunno about Spicer so can't call them a troll, and can't tell if they're good at scum either, so I considered that entrance NAI.
He's not a troll, it's not difficult to briefly meta him to figure this out

The more inexperienced he is the less likely he is to post something like this

Like I GET that it doesn't look like there's much on my spicer townread. I get it, he made one post, and everyone's like "lol wtf there's no case he made one post". I don't really want to go into the spicer townread again, I feel like I've restated it in multiple ways already with different points overlapping in different posts. You can tell a LOT not just from posting but using that in conjunction with game/wagon dynamics, assessing the presence (or lack thereof) of baseline motivations, etc. to get alignment tells from lurkers. And fwiw I would argue that people have been read for WAY less in this game. I get that town!Isis and town!Marksman might think I have extra info on spicer's alignment - at first I thought it was superficial but the more I thought about it the more I think that the whiteknighting hypothesis is a plausible town process.
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Post Post #476 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:47 am

Post by Casey »

Does this time where we're waiting for a flip count against us?
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Post Post #477 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:49 am

Post by innocentvillager »

LOL this is a good question

My guess is yeah, so we really have the dunk faster because we need to wait for mod to dunk
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Post Post #478 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:15 am

Post by hellbooks »

In post 406, Almost50 wrote:hellbooks is on Spicer, and ONLY Spicer out od the top 4 wagons. WHY? << @hellbooks
cuz i dont wanna be on any of the other ones??? lol !!!!! weirdo..... :roll:
but yea, i'm thinking
VOTE: elements
needs to stop coasting : )
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Post Post #479 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:05 am

Post by innocentvillager »

I'll just say (so I can come back to this theory later ifneedbe) if I was scum leader I would organize it such that some of us are lurky and 1-2 are really active and try to be townread. It's a good hedge because if the town swings one way or the other (towards going after high activity posters vs. low activity posters) scum is still likely to win

It's nice for coasters to get by the first few elims, then have some big townread figure that infiltrates to the end

Basically if we just have 2 innocent children and then we launch in some random order I feel like town wins a vast majority of the time. If scum infiltrates the innocent children or can manipulate the elim order to hit the wincon beforehand they win
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Post Post #480 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:17 am

Post by Marksman »

Or town does a mixture of both like they usually do.

I haven't found my IC partner that I'm confident on. hellbooks and Casey are candidates, but nothing to bet the game on yet.
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Post Post #481 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:25 am

Post by innocentvillager »

i did some math for fun because I was curious. If we use the strategy above, we win about 86.6% assuming the elim order is random and the ICs are both town. Assuming scum has some influence in the elim order, we could model that by assuming they get two MEs for free so in that case we win 78.5% of the time. If scum is in the ICs we win 0% obviously. So a pessimistic estimate of our winrate is P(we choose two town ICs) * 78.5%. If we were to pick the ICs completely randomly we would have a 50-50 shot (10/14*9/13=49.5%), so under the random elim order we're 42.8% to win and under the not-so-random elim order we'd be 38.8% to win. Which actually feels not bad.

I'm not saying we should use this strategy because obviously people will object, adverse selection, etc. But it's a fun baseline to know
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Post Post #482 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:30 am

Post by Marksman »

Looks like a good plan to me. Nono and Spicer are the designated ICs. I have decided this because of the way it is.

Please start dunking everyone else without mercy.
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Post Post #483 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 5:32 am

Post by innocentvillager »

tbh I wouldn't mind putting Spicer as an IC LOL ;)
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Post Post #484 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:09 am

Post by Hiraki »

In post 374, Casey wrote:I'm sure Hiraki is plotting this right now.
You could see if I was doing that and I literally can't be doing that based off of the VCs. Why would I say it too? Oooo, am I going to foil my ingenious plan here by...explaining it?!?!
In post 374, Casey wrote:This is Hiraki literally describing his own behavior and attributing it to me.
lol we have 3 people once you look at the below but sure, it's me.
In post 403, Chemical Elements wrote:According to this ruling by Ruby Red, it is impossible for a double elimination to occur by chance.
I don't get what you mean here. I think it proves the opposite, actually.
In post 476, Casey wrote:Does this time where we're waiting for a flip count against us?
I would assume yes since the rules don't say anything for it. Might be something for the Mod to consider. The counter argument is that it is nightless so there's no reason to wait but it's weak.
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Post Post #485 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:55 am

Post by Ruby Red »

Votecount 1.Final

TargetWagon
WeyounsLastClone
(GOT EM)
, , , , , , ,
Nono
(L-3)
, , , ,
Almost50
(L-3)
, , , ,
spicer1209
(L-4)
, , ,
Chemical Elements
(L-4)
, , ,
hellbooks
(L-4)
, , ,
innocentvillager
(L-4)
, , ,
Elements
(L-5)
, ,
Isis
(L-6)
,
Hiraki
(L-6)
,
Hayasaka
(L-6)
,
Casey
(L-6)
,
Lavender
(L-7)
Marksman
(L-7)
Not Voting
(2)
spicer1209, Hayasaka

With 14 alive, it's 8 to dunk on someone.
(expired on 2020-08-16 14:58:59) until the next great Ice Age.
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Post Post #486 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:58 am

Post by Ruby Red »

Image


WeyounsLastClone WAS DUNKED ON, HE WAS A
MAFIA GOON
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Post Post #487 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 8:58 am

Post by Ruby Red »

Day 2 begins.


Votecount 2.0

TargetWagon
Almost50
(L-2)
, , , ,
Nono
(L-3)
, ,
spicer1209
(L-3)
, , ,
Chemical Elements
(L-3)
, , ,
hellbooks
(L-3)
, , ,
innocentvillager
(L-3)
, , ,
Elements
(L-4)
, ,
Isis
(L-5)
,
Hiraki
(L-5)
,
Hayasaka
(L-5)
,
Casey
(L-5)
,
Lavender
(L-6)
Marksman
(L-6)
Not Voting
(2)
spicer1209, Hayasaka

With 13 alive, it's 7 to dunk on someone.
(expired on 2020-08-16 14:58:59) until the meteor strikes.
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Post Post #488 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:25 am

Post by Hayasaka »

I was voting him.
Easy.
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Post Post #489 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:26 am

Post by Hayasaka »

VOTE: Almost50
VOTE: Spicer
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Post Post #490 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:29 am

Post by Hiraki »

Sell me on Spicer.
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Post Post #491 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:13 am

Post by Nono »

But... I wanted to :•(
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Post Post #492 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:21 am

Post by Nono »

VOTE: almost didn’t see green pm, w/e
reread and tell me I’m delusional
next time, don’t steal
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Post Post #493 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:28 am

Post by Nono »

*sigh*
VOTE: hayasaka
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Post Post #494 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:35 pm

Post by Isis »

I feel good about redflip but that makes me feel even worse that I didn't let No do it.
"Let us say that you are right and there are two worlds. How much, then, is this 'other world' worth to you? What do you have there that you do not have here? Money? Power? Something worth causing the prince so much pain for?'"
"Well, I..."
"What? Nothing? You would make the prince suffer over... nothing?"
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Post Post #495 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:44 pm

Post by innocentvillager »

UNVOTE: Almost50 meh
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Post Post #496 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:56 pm

Post by innocentvillager »

I don’t townread that slot but ehhh maybe I’ll wait and see

I do townread this slot, however

Town: Chemical Elements

UNVOTE: Chemical Elements
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Post Post #497 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 2:58 pm

Post by innocentvillager »

can people talk about A50? I have trouble reading these kinds of slots, it’s just so spammy but he does this as scum too I’m pretty sure
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Post Post #498 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:39 pm

Post by Chemical Elements »

UNVOTE: Nono
UNVOTE: innocentvillager
UNVOTE: Isis
VOTE: Lavender
VOTE: Hiraki
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Post Post #499 (ISO) » Wed Aug 05, 2020 3:40 pm

Post by Chemical Elements »

VOTE: Hellbooks

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