Mini 611 - Troy, Meet Helen (Game Over)

[Farkshinsoup]

^Yes.

[Farkshinsoup]

Damn page break. Just to be clear:

Should I go ahead and do it now?

Yes.

[Tinsley]

Claim: Innocent Bystander (a.k.a. Townie)

If I get lynched, please put some pressure on Mac on D3.

[charter]

Why are you all of a sudden so suspicious of Mac? When I said that we might be getting manipulated into thinking Walnut is scum, he was the one I was thinking was doing it, but I never said that until now.

Why did you suggest I vote Fark over LG in that post of yours I quoted?

[Lord Gurgi]

Why are you all of a sudden so suspicious of Mac? When I said that we might be getting manipulated into thinking Walnut is scum, he was the one I was thinking was doing it, but I never said that until now.

Why did you suggest I vote Fark over LG in that post of yours I quoted?

This.

[charter]

unvote

My entire perspective on reality has been thrown into question by these recent events.

[Lord Gurgi]

Ha. Ha. How witty. But really, I never said they you can't be right. It seems like you decide who is scum and then try to get them lynched whatever happens. It's eerily similar to Thesp in fact.

[charter]

I want Tinsley to answer some questions first. They need to be addressed before anyone gets lynched.

[CF Riot]

Wah!!! I'm writing a post you guys settle down!!!! I was going to tell Tinsley not to claim yet but I guess it's okay.

[Macavenger]

I believe Fark's claim.

I find the narrowing down that Mac has done suspicious. If he is scum, then people agreeing to this could easily seal the game for the mafia, as it would be lynch one off the list, NK someone else, lynch one off the list etc. Yep, I know that we have to lynch someone today, but I don't like the assumption that this makes that the other players are inviolate.

Rich. You realize that, until about the last page, no one has talked seriously about lynching anyone not on that list in about 10 pages, except possibly you about lynching charter? I'm not narrowing anything down - the town is. I'm just supplying data.

Mac, would you be willing to lynch LG over Walnut today?

Pending answers from Tinsley, LG and Walnut are the only two I'm willing to lynch at this point. My preference is still Walnut, but I'd do either.

I actually think LG and charter are onto something, not the fact that LG and I are a scumpair, but that we could be getting bamboozled into thinking Walnut is scum. Charter look who has been pushing the Walnut bandwagon the hardest - Mac. If everyone is being "bamboozled" into believing Walnut is scum, isn't Mac the one that's doing it?

There are a good amount of if's here. Why are you suddenly so certain that both Walnut is town, and that I'm scum pushing a wagon on him, rather than town doing so? Pushing the wagon of the person you find scummiest is not a scumtell.

Netlava also pointed out that Mac's playing style changed from the trainwrecked game to this one in that he was less aggressive. Mac argued that he typically doesn't play aggressive, but he was just that confident he had found scum last game. After it was brought up however, Mac has been more aggressive.

How aggressive I play depends on a number of factors, including how confident I am in my reads, and how dead the game is. Throughout Day 2, I've been getting more confident in my read, and the game has been stalling, thus more aggressive. I think I'm also trending towards a more aggressive style over time, but can't really comment on that without talking about some ongoings.

Claimed to suspect Riot during Day 1 (even jumping off Netlava's bandwagon partially because of the fact Riot was on it.) Riot disappears from his list of suspicion on Day 2. He's replaced on Mac's LoS by ShadowGirl for her lurking even though in post 323 he defended her lurking as a case of not having time.

They didn't disappear, they just dropped to the 4/5 range because of Walnut/LG/Fark connections I was investigating. I haven't been talking about them much because others have been acting scummier, but I'm still watching them. I'd put Shadowgirl as 3, CF as 4 on my list right now, due to Fark's claim.

[CF Riot]

Same question to Riot. Who are your top three picks for scum?

1)Mac
2)Walnut
3)Fark

I took a lot of what Tinsley had to say into consideration. His case against Mac seems solid, which surprised me because I'd thought Mac to be pretty townish so far. However, I don't think I've been bamboozled into anything, and I've thought Walnut was scummy from D1 so he remains on my list.
This is the problem I have with Tinsley's argument.

I now trust:
Fark
Thesp

I'm pretty confident in:
camn

That leaves:
LG
SG
Walnut
Mac
CF Riot
charter

I've stated it several times, but I'll say it again, I just don't think SG is scum. That leaves five people I'm unsure of, and I just don't see Walnut having two partners out of that group. It seems obvious if Walnut were scum, that LG would be his partner, but who would be the third?

The logic that takes Walnut out of the picture is good, but the detail that is left out is Tinsley himself should still be on that list of suspects. Obviously he doesn't suspect himself, but the point is if Walnut + LG are scum and you must draw a third from that list, Tinsley would fit perfectly. BUT, I'm not putting all my stock on this either, because I've also thought Tinsley to be town so far, and I'm not as trusting of LG but I've enough doubt to be wary of a 3 scum pick that has both of them in it.

Tinsley, following your own train of thought, if Mac is scum what two buddies could you pull from that list?

Fark's claim is a claim, and I've been tolerant of anyone making a claim in this game. However I'm keeping him on my list and clearing Thesp. My logic plays out something like this:

X

Thesp = Scum; Fark = Doc
Impossible because it would've killed Fark.

X

Thesp = Scum; Fark = Scum
Possible, but improbable. If this were to happen, it would be extremely hard for them to explain things tomorrow when they were both still alive. Logically scum would kill one or the other, depending on the existence of a RB or not.

O

Thesp = Cop; Fark = Doc
Possible. If so I really don't see them both living through the night, but that's not to say they couldn't.

O

Thesp = Cop; Fark = Scum
Possible. This could be a great move by Fark because if he is scum, he would know Thesp is telling the truth, so appealing to him is easy and gains him credit. The weak doc allows him to gain Thesp's trust through confirming Thesp's own role if we accept Fark's. I think Doc claims are easy to keep up with, because he can just say, "I picked <non-scum-target> for <X> reason" and we must accept it. Also, if he decides to kill Thesp later, he can pull his, "It must've been a RB" WIFOM to account for it.

Still, it is risky for him if there is a real doc in the crowd, so to me the chance he's telling the truth is worth letting him try to survive the night.

Unvote: Walnut
Vote: Macavenger

[Lord Gurgi]

Did Macavenger just become the vote leader? I do not like how quickly this thing is moving.

[Macavenger]

Did Macavenger just become the vote leader? I do not like how quickly this thing is moving.

Amazingly, I don't either.

Particularly don't like CF Riot's vote. Very "yeah, me too." You seriously think I've been bussing Walnut for a day and a half? I mean, I can kind of understand the "bamboozling" case even if I think it's horribly flawed, but to basically just discard that and vote for me anyway?

[Mizzy]

Vote Count:

Tinsley 4 (camn, Walnut, Thesp, Farkshinsoup)
Macavenger 3 (Lord Gurgi, Tinsley, CF Riot)
Walnut 1 (Macavenger)

Not Voting:

ShadowGirl, charter

10 Alive = 6 to lynch!

[CF Riot]

You're not the leader, but it's a tight one for sure. But the way I see it, Tinsley has given me both a reason to doubt Walnut, and a reason to suspect you. Walnut's been main stage for a large chunk of this game, but you haven't really gotten much attention at all. I think we could stand giving you a little heat to see what happens. I was really confident in my case against Walnut, but I was also sure of my case against Netlava, and I was seriously thinking Thesp could be scum. We see how both those ended up, so I'm starting to rethink things. I did see you as townish, but I saw Tinsley as townish and LG as at least not scum yet, so that side outweighed you in switching my vote. On top of that, Walnut AND Fark are voting Tinsley, and I'd like to counter that since they're both on my LoS.

You've been all for a Walnut lynch today, but you've only casually mentioned others. What case do you have on the rest of your suspects atm?

[charter]

I don't like Riot's last post, particularly his Thesp=cop and Fark=doc scenario. There is no roleblocker if Thesp is town. There's no way scum would have chanced him investigating one of them if they could have avoided it.

Honestly, I don't think Mac's wagon is scum heavy yet. I don't really see the case on him, other than pushing Netlava and Walnut.

Waiting on Thesp's top three...

[Farkshinsoup]

Just to make this game that much more interesting, I think we should mass claim.

There are 2 vanilla townies dead already, 2 main power roles are out in the open, as well as 1 more vanilla and however you want to describe Camn's role. So lots are out already, let's get it all out there and force scum to lie. They won't be prepared for it.

Thesp could pick the first one to claim and then each person picks the next one to claim.

[Lord Gurgi]

Just to make this game that much more interesting, I think we should mass claim.

There are 2 vanilla townies dead already, 2 main power roles are out in the open, as well as 1 more vanilla and however you want to describe Camn's role. So lots are out already, let's get it all out there and force scum to lie. They won't be prepared for it.

Thesp could pick the first one to claim and then each person picks the next one to claim.

No.

[Farkshinsoup]

I knew you would say that.

[CF Riot]

Charter if there is a roleblocker then they could just block Thesp when they needed to and there wouldn't be a chance he investigated one of them. There's really no reason to think there is one yet but there's not a reason to think there isn't one either. How are you so sure there's not one?

I'm anti-mass claim. If you are lying, that's just a chance to say "I picked so-and-so because they claimed this." And if there are any other power roles left, I want scum to have to find them, not just pick the order they die in.

[Lord Gurgi]

Well obviously, you don't mass claim in a situation like this. The two possible outcomes I can see:

1. All claim Innocent Bystander, nothing gained, scum proceed to shoot only powerroles.
2. We out more power roles, one or two people slightly believed, scum proceed to shoot more powerroles.
3. We catch a scum in a lie (how?) and hopefully get enough people behind the lynch, partner(s?) proceed to shoot only powerroles.

1 and 2 are the likely, 3 is unlikely. Please explain how this is beneficial.

[Lord Gurgi]

EBWOP: "The three possible outcomes I can see:"

[charter]

Charter if there is a roleblocker then they could just block Thesp when they needed to and there wouldn't be a chance he investigated one of them. There's really no reason to think there is one yet but there's not a reason to think there isn't one either. How are you so sure there's not one?

They would have blocked Thesp last night. They didn't know who he was investigating.

I'm either way on a massclaim, I doubt we have much, if any, more town power, so I don't see it doing us any good or harm.

[CF Riot]

How do you know they didn't do that?

[Lord Gurgi]

How do you know they didn't do that?

I would presume that Thesp would be informed, regardless of whether or not his target was killed.