Open 786 | Dream Mafia | Cult Win!

[Titus]

I am thinking the recruit on JC would have been to make sure he comes after me. He wanted me yesterday but also said that Ythan and I were not both cult. Pulling in a cult member to make a nebulous argument in lylo makes some sense.

[Titus]

If shit hits the fan, they could burn JC or try a moonlogic argument that his "recipient" is lying or the jailkeeper is lying.

[the worst]

875 is pretty close to what I was thinking yeah
Either he was recruited as Something Shiny (and that I wouldn't hit the CR tonight?) or he coincidentally hit cult!Ari who, if he's cult, probably believes he's going to win today WHICH IS consistent with me begging him not to just eliminate him but I'm not sure if that's necessarily scum indicative?? it's just Scary

or maybe CL!Ari recruited JC for maximum wifom

or maybe Ari got the pm and he's trolling

[Jesus Christ]

I townread Aristophanes because of Korina's meta, so he is probably the new vanilla cultist.
I scumread Titus because of Battle Mage's meta, which would mean she is either the leader or rolecop.

[the worst]

Does anyone have a high success rate reading BM? my rate on Ari is quite good I think

[Jesus Christ]

Does my predicted scumteam actually make sense?

[Hiraki]

or maybe Ari got the pm and he's trolling

this is why i almost submitted that post without an unvote

[the worst]

I'm fairly comfortable trying to solve this game without votes in play! if any solace tho that was a shitpist and I'm fairly sure Ari is Not Like That

[Aristophanes]

Lol I read that part of the post and knew it was a shitpost portion because no, I wouldn't troll like that, at least not when it matters.

[Aristophanes]

Hmu if you need my input Worsty. I think I've made my points as clearly as I can here.

[the worst]

a lazier duck just votes titus and hopes everything is ok because she has de facto maj anyway

sadly i'm not as lazy as my idols and i still feel like her replace-in / reflexive ythan vote yday is anti partnery

[Titus]

Worst what do you think of my username Hiraki JC solve?

[the worst]

ehhh it's a possibility but i think username explicitly has to be the cult leader in that scenario

[Titus]

He would. Hiraki would be the rolecop. JC would be recruited.

JC's post was pretty much as I even predicted. It's like they aren't trying to hide it anymore.

[Hiraki]

it's no biggie, let's get this fr tho

Vote: Jesus Christ

yeah because i'm just acting here and i actually planned everything up to this point so i could reference this post when someone brought up this possibility

????????????????????????????????

[Jesus Christ]

Worst what do you think of my username Hiraki JC solve?

I can't agree with it for obvious reasons.

You guys know, I can prove that I wasn't culted last night by sending someone else the friendly neighbour message this night.

[the worst]

oh yeah unless you think JC/me is the original cult we are explicitly not eliminating Jesus today

[Aristophanes]

oh yeah unless you think JC/me is the original cult we are explicitly not eliminating Jesus today

Neither was ever an option

[Titus]

Yeah we go for the cult leader today.

VOTE: username

[innocentvillager]

uhhh so I don't have as much time as I'd like sorry but i will give my thoughts at some point soon bc deadline

[the worst]

oh god the deadline yeah ok
i need to get to this.
i have some other things going on as well and am spread a bit thin.

this will happen

[innocentvillager]

this is pretty confusing but here's how I understand the situation:

Ari and worsty are obvtown, JC can't be leader, Ari is probably not leader, worsty can't be leader

CL is in {Titus, username, Hiraki}

Hiraki was voting Ari for a while before unvoting and we saw no quickhammer and I don't think Ari is scum? So either:

a) 3 scum
1-Hiraki is scum
2-Ari is CL
3-scum didn't quickhammer for whatever reason (??)

b) cult didn't go through and we're still at the 2 original scum so when the game isn't over worsty can just jail Hiraki again and we win, unless scum tried to cult Hiraki...

Worsty blocked me N1 so I can't be CL and blocked Hiraki N2 so he can't be CL (or if he is we'll probably find out after we flip a townie), so either Ari is CL (if he is I think we're just screwed) or Hiraki is scum or somehow scum

I was kind of tunneled on BM for primarily meta reasons and the replace out but idk anymore, seems too easy almost, but maybe this is a too scummy to be scum fallacy because Psyche did nothing and Titus has been very meh content-wise

I'm leaning username for now mostly since CL has an almost purely survivalistic agenda and being FOS'd all game there is definite scum-motivation to keeping up content like he's been doing, whereas OTOH people just kind of kept wagoning BM/Titus/Psyche but there was never much pushback from them

but I will sheep worsty and Ari and hopefully I can reread more later

[the worst]

I was kind of tunneled on BM for primarily meta reasons and the replace out but idk anymore, seems too easy almost, but maybe this is a too scummy to be scum fallacy because Psyche did nothing and Titus has been very meh content-wise

this is v much where i'm at wrt the titus slot; the case against scum!BM really underwhelms me & i'm Very Null on psyche's contributions.

what's your take wrt titus' play so far - she hasn't been around very much but her actual thought process EVOKE FEELINGS within me

Save your bleating I'm not interested.

This is rather overconfident.

VOTE: Yhtan

this one in particualar
titus is not like, a lolbus person
she plays the game at her own pace and analyses

the way she's probably 1) repped in, 2) done some limited vca? if i know titus, 3) very promptly voted ythan the cult recruit is definitely AI

i might be moonlogicing this but the more i think on it the more i think it's unaligned

bussing scum in this situation not only *know* ythan is cult without a guilty conscience but also want to play in a way that comes across as not being scum WITH ythan. the fact she's made the bleating post without throwing down a vote and then come back a minute later and actually voted makes me think it's probably nnnooootttt coming from a mindset which needs to distance from ythan?

if she's the CL she's also not incentivised to reflexively bus as soon as she replaces in here. there are other ways for her to survive the day without killing her recruit. i also feel like the pause before the vote is nonguilty / a Real Thought

Oh cool JC is probably scum.

There's a limited amount of time to deadline. Ythan gets to Ex -1 and JC bails on it. He never outright calls Ythan town either and deflects his rationale for voting me onto someone else (not sure who 5above is but still).

her pushing JC as aligned with ythan is also uninformed in a way which would be pretty funny if she's scum but comparing to her solve today ---

He would. Hiraki would be the rolecop. JC would be recruited.

JC's post was pretty much as I even predicted. It's like they aren't trying to hide it anymore.

she's clearly reading enough to be aware that JC wasn't original-cult given she's dropped the JC/Ythan read
but there's no sense of forcing a trajectory or acknowledging being incorrect on JC d2 which i'd expect from scum who is casing him ?

i suppose this is possible if she actually just Did recruit him last night but something feels... off, about treating titus like scum. titus doesn't actually look like scum, she's not not around

[the worst]

i feel like we're reaching roughly the same conclusions

i also think ari literally begging me to have mercy on him is probably a Real Feeling
just a little bit anxious/wary of him just, realising he needed to hardpocket me after the way d2 ended tho

[iamausername]

ok, first thing's first:

VOTE: Titus

i can't see it being Ari. no one else can see it being Ari. if it is Ari, he's played it extremely well and deserves the win.

Titus does not deserve this win.

the worst, i think the major error in your analysis above is here:

if she's the CL she's also not incentivised to reflexively bus as soon as she replaces in here.

it is, in fact, very much in cult's interest to bus their recruit there. the day began at 5:3 town:cult ratio. executing town makes it 4:3. executing cultist, then recruiting someone else ALSO makes it 4:3, except they get to take out a town PR and sow more seeds of confusion.

it is 100% clear that Ythan was trying to get himself killed yesterday, and succeeded. and who started that wagon rolling? oh yeah, Hiraki. who has been obviously fucking aligned with Titus since day one. Hiraki and Ythan planned this out in the scum PT, Titus replaced in, had this plan relayed to her, agreed that it made sense and went along with it.

innocentvillager, i think the major flaw in your analysis above is:

I'm leaning username for now mostly since CL has an almost purely survivalistic agenda and being FOS'd all game there is definite scum-motivation to keeping up content like he's been doing

i accept that i am one of the few people who is not mechanically confirmed to not be the cult leader. i accept that this puts me under suspicion, and i accept that sometimes town players will get it wrong, and sometimes i'll be the one who takes the fall for that.

but "you are scum because you've actually been trying in this game" is the worst case anyone has ever made in a game of mafia and you should be ashamed of yourself