Mini 611 - Troy, Meet Helen (Game Over)

[Lord Gurgi]

1 - I was so very wrong about Mac. I would have defended him to the end. I got suckered big time.

Forgot to answer this. Umm, I guess since Walnut is dead my revised thoughts are Walnut is town and Mac is scum. =/ I don't know what else to add to it. I need to go back and see if Mac did any distancing, or if anyone did any distancing from Mac. I used the night phase as time off since school started again and it's been the weekend.

At the time the players who had posted were charter, myself, you (camn), farkshinsoup, and CF Riot. 50% of players other than me. That is sufficient to say they were surprised that he was scum.

I wasn't terribly surprised, it was very reassuring for my ego, since I always doubt myself in twilight.

Thesp: So you are not paranoid as you thought then? I'm not going to press you for your result, since we can rely on the doc protecting you.

All: I am treating Thesp as confirmed, as the only way for him not to be town is for him to be buddies with Fark, which I just don't see at this time. This is not final, but it is unlikely to change. (This does of course assume that all role PM's are complete)

[CF Riot]

So Fark, other than they're trying to set you up, why do you think scum picked Walnut over you? Who's most suspicious to you now?

[charter]

I don't like Riot's post right there. I want to throw out my opinion, but will wait until after Fark's response.

[Walnut]

Bah

Oh well, killed by mafia during night 2 rather than night 1, that seems an improvement, but only if the town wins- go town!

[Farkshinsoup]

So Fark, other than they're trying to set you up, why do you think scum picked Walnut over you? Who's most suspicious to you now?

I'd rather not speculate further at the moment, not sure it's very productive.

I haven't come to any conclusions about scum yet.

[Tinsley]

Vote: CF Riot

I could go back and finish my PBPA on him, but I don't think anyone's interested. Bottom Line: I thought Riot's play mirrored Mac's through D1 and most of D2. On D1 Mac voted Walnut while helping to push the Netlava bandwagon. Meanwhile Riot voted Netlava while helping to push the Walnut wagon. Both came in on D2 pushing hard for a Walnut lynch. Both refused to vote me while the rest of the town was suspicious of me.

I think the fact that they started pointing fingers at each other toward the end of D2 was just distancing.

Fark - Who did you protect last night?

[Farkshinsoup]

4 - I protected Thesp again last night.

[Thesp]

3 - Not sure why I'm still alive, I think that scum is hoping that there's enough suspicion on me to get me lynched.

4 - I protected Thesp again last night. Eager to hear if his investigation bore any fruit.

I wasn't roleblocked last night (as far as I can tell), so there are a couple of possibilities:

1) The mafia have some sort of investigation impeder, whether someone that flips revealed alignments or otherwise gives misinformation to a cop.

2) There is a serial killer and/or vig, and people have tried to kill me twice in a row.

3) Farkshinsoup is mafia, and the mafia cannot kill me as long as I'm alive because it blows his cover.

4) The mafia have a roleblocker, blocked farkshinsoup, and killed someone other than me.

5) The mafia made a suboptimal play, hoping that we'd go after farkshinsoup.

As I see it, (1) is unlikely, as we've already seen a Godfather. (2) is conceivable, but unlikely and not worth a lot of speculation at this point. (4) is somewhat silly - conceivable if they think I'm worthless (with all my paranoia talk), but still unlikely. (3) & (5) are the most likely scenarios, with (3) being perhaps the most awesome, but (5) being most likely. (There are a couple more, even more remote, possibilities, but none I thought were worth mentioning.)

If farkshinsoup is scum, he can't afford to kill me, especially as it's clear the mafia likely don't have a roleblocker. (If they did, the most likely/obvious choices are RB fark & kill me, or RB me.) As long as farkshinsoup is alive, then

if

there's only one killing group, and

if

the mafia does not have a roleblocking ability (which I think is likely the case), we're looking pretty good at this point.

I'm probably going to be more reticent about my suspicions at this point - what I say about people will give away some possibilities of whom I investigated, and it's ideal if the people I investigated aren't the people that get killed. (No sense painting a target on them for the mafia.) I do have some strong feelings about some players, and if you will permit me, I'll be more inclined to join and add to bandwagons that form that I like to add pressure, rather than instigate them at this time. (Not what I'd like to do, but tactically I think it's best.)

[ShadowGirl]

I'm here now - I was at a convention yesterday.

Walnut... gone? I suppose it makes sense to try and keep Fark around in hopes he'll be lynched.

My current potential scum list is the same as camn's, really. But I'm keeping the possibility that Fark is scum in mind.

[charter]

I'm in agreement with Tinsley. I think LG is scum, and either Riot or Fark is the last one with the remote possibility of SG being the last scum.

[Mizzy]

Vote Count:

charter 1 (Lord Gurgi)
Lord Gurgi 1 (charter)
CF Riot 1 (Tinsley)

Not Voting:

Thesp, Farkshinsoup, CF Riot, ShadowGirl, camn

8 Alive = 5 to lynch!

[CF Riot]

I don't like Riot's post right there. I want to throw out my opinion, but will wait until after Fark's response.

Ok Charter you can go ahead and comment now. I will say though that I do have reasons for these things.

Camn on what grounds have you cleared Fark and SG?

Tinsley if you were right (you're not) who would be my buddy? Still Charter? The only thing I can say for my play being mirrored by Mac is just that. Look at the sequence of events. My actions were never following his, always the reverse. I'm assuming he put his support behind the strongest arguments given because they had the most potential to gain support.

Charter why is the possibility of SG being scum "remote"?

[charter]

I don't like how you ask Fark for reasons scum did something. I also don't like how you say other than the most obvious reason, why do you think they left you alive. What is the purpose behind that question? Asking Fark who he's suspicious of like that makes me think you're worried or anxious about something.

SG being scum is remote by process of elimination. LG is scum. Tinsley and camn aren't. Thesp isn't. That leaves you and Fark, both of which have had much questionable play this game. SG hasn't been as sneaky as you two, so I don't think she's very likely to be scum.

[CF Riot]

I see where you're coming from, but I assure you there are real reasons. I'm not worried, I'm curious. And when I'm asking Fark why scum did <X>, I'm not expecting him to either be right or wrong on guessing what they thought. I just want to see his take on the matter, since he is the person in question. (i.e. leaving him alive.)

What "much questionable play" have I had? I've thought my play so far has been pretty deliberate and with good reason. What about SG makes you think she's not being sneaky? The one thing her name has come up for more than anything else in this game is lurking, (possibly for honest reasons, though that is not certain) which is commonly considered a "sneaky" tactic for scum. For that matter, when have I or Fark been "sneaky"?

[Tinsley]

Tinsley if you were right (you're not) who would be my buddy? Still Charter? The only thing I can say for my play being mirrored by Mac is just that. Look at the sequence of events. My actions were never following his, always the reverse. I'm assuming he put his support behind the strongest arguments given because they had the most potential to gain support.

Still leaning toward charter, but the timing of his vote on Mac has me a little perplexed. It did not seem to me that Thesp, Fark, or Camn were going to change their vote from me to Mac. If charter is in fact Mac's scumbuddy, I would think he would keep his vote on me in that situation, and let me be lynched at deadline. I haven't ruled LG out as a scum candidate, I just think charter's play has been scummier.

In regards to "your actions never following his", I disagree. While your vote on Netlava (Post 173) on D1 was the first on the bandwagon that got him lynched, Mac had been casting suspicion on Netlava since at least Post 141.

[charter]

Riot, I suppose sneaky was the wrong word.

Did myself a little reread of day one.
Mac's 278 mentions quite a few people. He Foses or votes Walnut, Netlava, Batt, and Riot. Call it WIFOM, but I don't think that he would say he's suspicious of four townies. I know there's no way of proving this, but I do know that as scum myself, I always try to do a fair bit of distancing, which this seems like in this post. It also claims LG town, so it's quite suspect.

You also flip flop on BB. At first you say something along the lines of it being "ridiculous" to lynch BB based off his claim, then you later say that his actions were scummy.

You went through great lengths to say you believed Walnut to be scum and myself not on day two. It really seemed like you wanted the Walnut lynch on day two, and were agreeing with me because Walnut's play had been questionable whereas mine was much more erratic.

I think LG and Riot are the scum. I desperately want to lynch LG over Riot however.
Granted I don't have much hard evidence on Riot, lots more of gut feelings, but I don't like how he immediately opened up the day questioning Fark. No one else did.

[Lord Gurgi]

Tinsley if you were right (you're not) who would be my buddy? Still Charter? The only thing I can say for my play being mirrored by Mac is just that. Look at the sequence of events. My actions were never following his, always the reverse. I'm assuming he put his support behind the strongest arguments given because they had the most potential to gain support.

Still leaning toward charter, but the timing of his vote on Mac has me a little perplexed. It did not seem to me that Thesp, Fark, or Camn were going to change their vote from me to Mac. If charter is in fact Mac's scumbuddy, I would think he would keep his vote on me in that situation, and let me be lynched at deadline. I haven't ruled LG out as a scum candidate, I just think charter's play has been scummier.

It's called bussing, also your unvote was pretty screwing for anyone still on your wagon.

[Tinsley]

I understand the bussing theory, but I just don't see why scum would unvote a townie who's likely to be lynched, just so they can lynch their buddy.

As far as the unvote on Mac, I started having doubts about him after I found Fark's FOS on Thesp to start D2. I didn't want Fark to vote Mac while he was sitting at L-1, and shut down all conversation on that evidence until D3.

[ShadowGirl]

It's true, I don't see why he would lynch his partner over a townie? [I understand bussing, but in this instance it doesn't make as much sense to do so.]

[Lord Gurgi]

Because it's WIFOM. That's why it doesn't make sense.

[charter]

Or it might be because I'm actually a townie and scumGurgi is clutching to whatever he can to build a case against me.

[camn]

Camn on what grounds have you cleared Fark and SG?

The play against Batt on N1 clears SG, I think..

and I believe Fark's claim.

But I would say Fark is MORE clean than SG.

[ShadowGirl]

Hn, I do understand it's WIFOM but... I think it's less likely that he would get his own partner lynched instead of Tinsley.

[Farkshinsoup]

Still haven't had time to reread. Hopefully before the weekend.

Vote: Lord Gurgi

[Lord Gurgi]

Why?