Mini 2167: Illicit Substances Mafia (Game Over!)


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Post Post #8025 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:33 pm

Post by Remilia Scarlet »

i think this might just be the win
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Post Post #8026 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:33 pm

Post by morph the cat »

spayhead has gone round and round and where she stops...

Recommends that Bell be the hammerer.

I townread notsci, but ever since the zmuffin paranoia case, I've had flickers of doubt about IV, and recent new IV posts (particularly the last one) fan those flickers.

Overall his zmuffin paranoia case held together fine even though I disagreed. But, the first couple of paragraphs read like it was written to sound like a verbal conversation. And there's no reason for that crafted-for-effect to be there.

In my heart of hearts, though, I expect ratfuckery that utterly destroys our xylo plans.

Good luck town! Despite our premonitions of doom, we'll be cheering you on.
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Post Post #8027 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:34 pm

Post by Remilia Scarlet »

In post 8026, morph the cat wrote:In my heart of hearts, though, I expect ratfuckery that utterly destroys our xylo plans.
like what

because that's 100% worth talking about if you think it _should_ affect how we handle today
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Post Post #8028 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:35 pm

Post by morph the cat »

In post 8025, Remilia Scarlet wrote:i think this might just be the win
There's an interesting conversation waiting to happen when the game ends.

I hope you guys get a little bit of the story of Stomper in our death scene.

If not, postgame you can read about him in our PT.
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Post Post #8029 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:36 pm

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on a scale of 1 to helpful that gets a :neutral:
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Post Post #8030 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:44 pm

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I realize I have to go back a bit to get your endorsement of the plan but really seems like a "I was against this from the beginning but you fuckers wouldn't listen" sort of post, and the "I've already written the loss off" is a really bad look in lieu of having attempted to do anything else; we've been in stalemate for what, two weeks?
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Post Post #8031 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:46 pm

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In post 8029, Remilia Scarlet wrote:on a scale of 1 to helpful that gets a :neutral:
If you're town and you genuinely think the game ends with our elim, then yes, that convo gets to happen. I think we all have shit to say about how this game has evolved/devolved.

I don't know what the doomsday ability I fear is in the game actually is. Maybe it's the yeet, but the scum nightgame had to basically be perfect in order for a final yeet to make a difference. One vanilla nk, and the lightning rod left the scumteam with an abundance of conftown/threats to deal with in the final night/day.

If you're town, then you have this xylo warping ability. And scum must have a counter. Is that counter simply killing you given all the other things scum needed to do in order to have a conftown-free final day?

If you're not town, then I guess your chances are 50/50 of bringing a scum win home.
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Post Post #8032 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:48 pm

Post by Remilia Scarlet »

I feel like this is all for the benefit of setting up a Morph/Bell/ST that has more freedom of movement

p-edit: ok i need to process this
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Post Post #8033 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:49 pm

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In post 8031, morph the cat wrote:And scum must have a counter
why do you think this given what we've observed? we pretty much exactly know what scum is capable of unless you think they're hiding a hidden reactionary ability in addition to what we've seen, which seems super unlikely in ANY setup

unless you think it's maid and this is some factional nonsense
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Post Post #8034 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:50 pm

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In post 8031, morph the cat wrote:If you're town and you genuinely think the game ends with our elim, then yes, that convo gets to happen. I think we all have shit to say about how this game has evolved/devolved.
this is a post game convo. this is not what we're doing right now
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Post Post #8035 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:57 pm

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In post 8030, Remilia Scarlet wrote:I realize I have to go back a bit to get your endorsement of the plan but really seems like a "I was against this from the beginning but you fuckers wouldn't listen" sort of post, and the "I've already written the loss off" is a really bad look in lieu of having attempted to do anything else; we've been in stalemate for what, two weeks?
We were (especially me) all over the place on Day 4. It was my idea to vote zmuffin out of the gate. His plan to get to endgame convinced me that he was town, ironically. If muffin, himself hadn't been so determined to exit and let his plan unroll, we would not have voted him yesterday. And we would probably have been the elim instead. I accepted that possibility. It might have led to town having more opportunity, or at least will to think harder and play harder than we have.

And that still might have been a better Day 4 than what we got.

Yeah, this day occurring during the middle of such a bizarre election week definitely put the game on a backburner for me -- us -- and probably for most everyone still alive.

I hope zmuffin's right. I don't have an alternative solution.

I'm not sanguine about Day 6 at all. But if things do play out as zmuffin expected and you're town, then I think you need to take a deep breath, reset and think about who you want to hammer. I miswrote above. Bell is my stronger townread at this point, and I don't think he should be the hammer.
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Post Post #8036 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:06 pm

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In post 8033, Remilia Scarlet wrote:
In post 8031, morph the cat wrote:And scum must have a counter
why do you think this given what we've observed? we pretty much exactly know what scum is capable of unless you think they're hiding a hidden reactionary ability in addition to what we've seen, which seems super unlikely in ANY setup

unless you think it's maid and this is some factional nonsense
does it make sense to you that one bad nk plus the lightning rod could basically ensure other night kills take precedence over you for the final 2 nights of the game?

And yeah, I'm trusting Cabd and to some extent you in your conclusions that maid is mechanically conftown, but I can't get to that point myself. It's going to be an asterisked read for me until Maid flips or endgames.
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Post Post #8037 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:07 pm

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In post 8035, morph the cat wrote:I think you need to take a deep breath, reset and think about who you want to hammer
If you're town then I pledged in to do exactly that. That is a bridge town-you needs to trust me to cross.
hadn't been so determined to exit and let his plan unroll, we would not have voted him yesterday.
I thought you were reading his being ardent about the plan as a towntell.

No, you know what fucking sucks about this?

I was fairly certain muffin was town and instead of being able to fall back on being convinced of that he's fucking dead and i get to deal w/ people pulling on my heartstrings about more nuanced shit that i'm more likely to fuck up.

incoming bell careening in to tell me that i couldn't possibly have townread muffin and in order to townread him i'd have to know
which is fucking stupid
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Post Post #8038 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:09 pm

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In post 8036, morph the cat wrote:does it make sense to you that one bad nk plus the lightning rod could basically ensure other night kills take precedence over you for the final 2 nights of the game?
not sure what you're trying to argue here
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Post Post #8039 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:10 pm

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I don't think this takes us anywhere useful. The main thing I want to convey, if this game progresses according to play, is that ST is not my strongest townread. It's so weird to be townreading notsci and having reservations about IV, but that's where I'm at and that's the one thing that I hope gets consideration when we're dead confirmed town.

Our fears about ratfuckery are beyond our ability to do anything about, so I just wish town luck and hope it's basically overworked brain spasm or something on our part.
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Post Post #8040 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:10 pm

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according to plan, not play
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Post Post #8041 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:11 pm

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In post 8039, morph the cat wrote:I don't think this takes us anywhere useful. The main thing I want to convey, if this game progresses according to play, is that ST is not my strongest townread. It's so weird to be townreading notsci and having reservations about IV, but that's where I'm at and that's the one thing that I hope gets consideration when we're dead confirmed town.
bell is?
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Post Post #8042 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:21 pm

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In post 8037, Remilia Scarlet wrote:I thought you were reading his being ardent about the plan as a towntell.

No, you know what fucking sucks about this?

I was fairly certain muffin was town and instead of being able to fall back on being convinced of that he's fucking dead and i get to deal w/ people pulling on my heartstrings about more nuanced shit that i'm more likely to fuck up.

incoming bell careening in to tell me that i couldn't possibly have townread muffin and in order to townread him i'd have to know
which is fucking stupid
I WAS convinced he was town based on his plan. I didn't think, especially with him pushing for his own elim, that the elim could realistically be shifted to someone else and aside from you we didn't have any idea who could be scum. Eliming you would thwart the plan and make us even more elim-bait if you're town. I gave up when ST voted zmuffin while reiterating their opinion that he was probably the final scum anyway.

I gave you no shit for voting us yesterday.

I'm giving you no shit for voting us today.

We get to state our final thoughts here, right or wrong.

It's annoying to be getting elimed and also guilted for somehow not having a galaxy brain gamesolve.
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Post Post #8043 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:21 pm

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like i am calling extreme attention to this right now:
In post 7966, Bell wrote:Sure.
I only did a minor self check and decided that the only thing I really wanna change is that I'm not the one who hammers since we automatically win if I don't.

Yes. I know.
If this is a formality for him and none of this shit matters:
In post 7976, Bell wrote:I'm confident Tunnels would flip town too.
this is just a formality.
We already took the first step might as well go through the process and do our due diligence.
I am going to have a hard time dealing w/ any walkback from this tomorrow because the upper quote is the way scum-him wins this game
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Post Post #8044 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:25 pm

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stahp gotcha’ing me. It wasn’t good the first time, it wasn’t good the second time either.
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Post Post #8045 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:26 pm

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as said earlier, unless there is 'fuckery'; i need to identify one town and right now i think ST is the only one who isn't doing weird posturey shit all over this plan.
It's annoying to be getting elimed and also guilted for somehow not having a galaxy brain gamesolve.
still willing to vote bell today

p-edit: still willing to vote bell today
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Post Post #8046 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:26 pm

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In post 8041, Remilia Scarlet wrote:
In post 8039, morph the cat wrote:I don't think this takes us anywhere useful. The main thing I want to convey, if this game progresses according to play, is that ST is not my strongest townread. It's so weird to be townreading notsci and having reservations about IV, but that's where I'm at and that's the one thing that I hope gets consideration when we're dead confirmed town.
bell is?
:(

This is why I don't want to be there tomorrow.

Notsci's next post will probably spin the pointer again.

These two posts pertain directly to us. Which do you think is more likely to be a townpost?
In post 7970, Bell wrote:VOTE: Morph

Unlike muffin who I felt I could have been blindsided by this one I'm confident is going to flip town.


Take your tim on that research I'm just placing the vote down so I don't feel too gross later.
In post 7990, Secret Tunnel wrote:
uh

yeah I’m personally ok hammering morph at some point I think pending whatever approval


seems like no compelling reason to deviate from the plan

morph probs flipping town but whatevs should be a win


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Post Post #8047 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:30 pm

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gutshot probably the top one if i were coming into the game knowing nothing about anything but i think you're unhilighting the most important part of that second post

"seems like no compelling reason to deviate from the plan"

which is pretty much the impetus for everything else in it
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Post Post #8048 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:40 pm

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In post 8047, Remilia Scarlet wrote:gutshot probably the top one if i were coming into the game knowing nothing about anything but i think you're unhilighting the most important part of that second post

"seems like no compelling reason to deviate from the plan"

which is pretty much the impetus for everything else in it
Notsci self-voted at the start of Day 5

The majority of their posts feel town to me. It's a handful of IV posts that just grate to some degree, though I keep coming back to town overall.

I'm throwing my hands in the air right now and basically doing what I did after notsci agreed with IV's muffin vote. FIIIINE.

If it were a normal xylo that wound up with ST, Bell and us, I'd probably vote Bell.
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Post Post #8049 (ISO) » Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:05 pm

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=/ i had two completely different interpretations of this post on two separate reads of it

but ultimately either you support the plan as is, you think the lylo we're building toward is one i'm likely to botch (Bell hammer), or you think i'm full of shit, and ultimately i can't really tell what you want to happen here. most of your posts read 'undecided' but mostly w/ an emphasis on "of course i'm town, duh" in which case vote bell or st?

Maid clearly seems like they're going to park on me and not play

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