Pick your Poison 3 (Game Over)

[Coron]

...

Fuck this, I'm going back to lurking.

QFR = quoted for reasonableness.

Can we just lynch Flameaxe already, I want to move this game forward.

[Incognito]

...

Fuck this, I'm going back to lurking.

I posted that across the board. You know that.

I've already made my opinions clear about Flameaxe and others. I'm of the opinion that he's not scum here, I'm of the opinion that Gorrad isn't scum here, I'm of the opinion that farside isn't scum here. I'd like a Sarc lynch. Therefore I won't be hammering Flameaxe.

[Elmo]

I posted that across the board. You know that.

Yeah, that wasn't really directed at you. I acknowledge that you're almost certainly telling the truth about activity in 1398.

I'm more irritated that I can't really bring myself to disagree with Sarc's position, and we have probable townies voting for statistically-likely-townie, and there's (again) nothing I can do about it. If he's scum, I'll jump for joy; but meh.

[farside22]

I'm just confused about Elmo's about turn face for Incognito. Flameaxe replacement would be good.

[Coron]

Flameaxe replacement would be good.

Please? Failing that we should lynch him and move on.

[Elmo]

Mod

:

Please?

Don't make me use the puppy dog eyes.

I might well actually do stuff, now.

[farside22]

Mod

:

Please?

Don't make me use the puppy dog eyes.

I might well actually do stuff, now.

You lie.

Also don't know if I posted it here. I will be on V/LA from 08/30 - 09/01

[Incognito]

After O/D'ing on my reading of Elmo, I think he might be town here too. So really, Sarcastro and some other person (maybe Coron or maybe someone incorrectly placed on that list above) is scum. Yay.

[Elmo]

Hmm. I'm having a good day so far. *plays music*. Let's play mafia; threadbomb time.

After O/D'ing on my reading of Elmo, I think he might be town here too.

Have another look at your role PM. Yup, I'm town.

Yes, there's a very good chance that he's town, but if as town he's still not even willing to

try

to contribute even when threatened with death if he doesn't, well, there's something goddamn wrong with him, and he shouldn't be playing mafia.

Mmm. The problem I have is that I'm not sure it's a question of

willing

or

able

. I've played with him when he's been town, and when he's been scum; his playstyle involves not posting content, reasonless votes, and so on, but he was always inclined to actually show up and do stuff, either alignment. That's why I've been pressing him to ask for replacement instead of posting content. I'm going to reread those old games, and try and see what his activity is like site-wide.

I figure, either it's deliberate or he's not able to post regularly. Therefore, either:
1) He's town, and not trying.
2) He's town, and constrained.
3) He's scum, and not trying.
4) He's scum, and constrained.

1) Is quite unlikely, I find, based on previous experience. He hasn't necessarily

contributed

much in other games in terms of making large posts of analysis (and I suspect he has disdain for such), but he had the same goal as us, and certainly voted and pressed people in line with his suspicions.
2) Is possible. I believe I've seen him lurk as town and not get replaced, even when he clearly should have.
3) Possible - as long as he believes we won't actually lynch him. I'll detail this path below.
4) Quite possible. I haven't seen anything in line with his town play all game, because he hasn't done much. He definitely has gone without posting when scum due to real-life constraints before, and resumed posting when those let up.

I believe Sarc's view coincides with the following; this puts us in something like a Prisoner's Dilemma.
If we opt to let him live when he's idle, then he's inclined to do it all the time.
If we opt to lynch him when he's idle, then he's possibly less likely to do it, but we'll be lynching a townie most of the time.
I think Sarc's view is that we should lynch him, in order to account for the possibility that he's gambling we won't lynch him. I also think there's a fair amount of genuine annoyance with his play. In my experience, people tend to have an odd kind of risk-averseness to being deceived; no-one wants to run the risk of feeling like they'd have the wool pulled over their eyes, so they over-account towards options that eliminate that possibility, even when it's suboptimal play.

That, amongst other things, is decent evidence that Sarc's town. In particular, Gorrad's "I just want to lynch someone, anyone" is

much

more what I'd expect scum to do in this situation. I actually think that it would be fairly easy for scum to push this wagon, but they're not inclined to; certainly Incognito seems to be steering clear of it.

So one important question is whether or not he believes we're likely to go through with lynching him. If we can answer "yes", we can conclude that his inactivity is due to constraints and not deliberate. That would simplify matters quite a bit; in particular, if he believes we would lynch him, it's optimal play to ask for replacement, regardless of his alignment. I believe that he takes this threat (per se) seriously, and that's why I've pressed him to ask for replacement; he

should

be doing it regardless of his alignment.

But I've committed to voting Flameaxe until he shows at least some willingness to contribute, and I don't think I'm going to be changing my mind anytime soon.

(shrug) If you're doing it because you made a commitment and don't want to go back on it, I can respect that. But that doesn't mean it's the right play.

These are verbatim, publicly available quotes in an ongoing game.

I'm here, still need to read/catch up. Summer assignments + film projects (which was mentioned in GD a while back, if you're wondering) = not a lot of internet time.

Pwnz has officially jumped on my scumdar. Also, hello. Long time no see. School started, early workload > me. I'll have much more access/time to read starting next week. This is just a "commenting on current shit while I finish the other stuff (rereads)" post.

Meta seem to indicate that Flameaxe is more active in other games, though. I don't like that. The problem I'm left with is that it seems clear that there's some reason for his lack of activity site-wide, but that doesn't mean

all

of his lurkiness is down to it. Personally, I would rule out the idea that all of his lurking is just him being lazyscum; there's definitely some kind of real-life situation whereby he can't post as much. I get the feeling that this game is relatively low priority; it's harder to discern whether that's because he's scum and doesn't need to do anything or whether there's some legitimate pro-town reason to be less interested in this particular game.

---

I'm just confused about Elmo's about turn face for Incognito.

Okay. Let's go back to the beginning.
Sarcastro started Incognito's wagon on page 1, pretty much. The basis for this was in post 69, which is:
* Incognito stated that it doesn't matter what powers the scum have; this is scummy for unstated (?) reasons.
* Moreso, that seems like a lame justification for not giving reasons for how he voted.
* He voted for the rolecop.
* He's OMGUSsing; as a cover, his second post claims that he's more likely to be targeted by scum, and there's no reason to believe that.

I didn't really like this much at the time. I agreed with the sentiment of Incognito's statement, inthat (in my opinion) people have a tendency to rely far too much on power roles as opposed to 'normal' scumhunting. There's a subtle disconnect between what he actually said ("If people post and do a good job scum-hunting, then it shouldn't matter what power roles the scum have") and what Sarc interpreted him as saying ("it doesn't matter what powers the scum have"). The emphasis is fundamentally different. The town actually has quite a horrible record in plain vanilla games, but I'm nonetheless of the opinion that they're perfectly winnable. (I signed up specifically for a vanilla game to see what it was like.) On that basis, the only purpose of the scum roles apart from the vig is to disrupt the town power roles; if they do it totally, then we've got a vanilla game. If you take the view that vanilla games are perfectly winnable with good enough play from the town, then his comment makes perfect sense. Ether apparently agrees with this in 101. I didn't (and don't) see his remark as particularly scummy.

I didn't follow the role-picking at the start too closely at the time. I do remember (and read) that people had differing opinions; I don't really see an underlying reason why Incognito's vote for the rolecop was significantly better or worse than anyone else's. For example, q21, BabyGirl, and Ether voted for the rolecop. Scotmany was undecided betwwen the rolecop and RB. As we now know, all town. So, unless there's something I've missed, I've be fairly sure that this point's not a tell. It might be revealing to go back and look at who voted what, now we know what role we were assigned. I'm not really inclined to at the moment, though; it seems like it depends too much on people's opinions on balance to be that helpful.

Not giving reasons why you voted? Everyone did that apart from a few people, far as I can see. If he didn't want to give reasons, he'd just.. not give reasons.

The last point is one that I thought might hold some kind of merit. I've said before that OMGUS is a relatively difficult tell to read correctly; people do it for a variety of different reasons, and there's a perfectly logical basis for why a townie would do it. What he specifically said was that "the people who accuse me of being scum are often scum themselves". That seems odd, to me, inthat it's a specific meta claim; scum are generally loathe to tie themselves down to anything that can be actually checked out. The additional problem is that it doesn't even have to be true, particularly; if he has a decent basis for

feeling

that it's true, then it seems reasonable, even if it's factually incorrect. I do think it's significant that he shifts the burden of proof onto Sarc, though; there's no way Sarc can disprove it without trawling through most/all of Incog's completed games. In that respect, it definitely seems out-of-place, although more odd than definitely scummy.

So, I didn't like the starting reasons. Then we've got babygirl's vote because "incog seems like he's trying too hard to defend himself with defenses that aren't really that good of defenses". Mellowed Man with a reasonless vote. Dave with a reasonless vote. mr. incrediball uses OMGUS as a reason to vote without any analysis. ashmite QFTs Dave and hops on. Ether unvotes, saying "my inner stubborn says he's being bussed, but the speed and composition of this wagon does creep me out." Everyone unvotes, Sarc tries to get them back on. Foom, wagon over. Sarc says
"FoS: Everyone using this as a lame excuse to unvote Incognito", which I hafta QFT in retrospect.. this looks like a classic case of a scumbag gets run up, his buddies get overeager with the bussing, then someone says "wow, this wagon is scummy", mostly because it is, then everyone unvotes. I think I've even had that happen to me twice, and I've seen it more. If Incognito's scum, Sarc is

definitely

pro-town, here. Ether says "His wagon was opportunistic to a scary degree; it creeped me out long before I actually unvoted. [...] This means that Incognito has a big scummy wagon that probably does not share his alignment. So he's town." Right. So I'm thinking roughly the same, at this point. I think everything points to Sarc hitting the right target, and the mafia bussing, but Sarc's original case not being strong enough to sustain the nastiness of the wagon forming.

Okay. So, what's changed? Well, one thing is simply the passage of time. I thought his play near the start of the game was odd, slightly out-of-character relative to what I saw in Volleville, but nothing that mightn't be caused by being put off by a sudden wagon on him. His play over the course of the game, however, is totally out of whack relative to the games of his I've seen. Also, a game I was with him in just ended where I was scum, and got to see his pro-town play up close. Again, nothing like this game.

---

Let's have a look back in retrospect, eh?

Elmo, why is incog's behaviour "fine by you"?

Hey, look. A scumbag

doesn't

hop on the wagon, but doesn't defend him, instead trying to get

me

to implicitly defend him. The post is a bundle of fun; it directly implies there is something wrong with my finding Incog's behaviour fine, but Marmalade makes no attempt to accuse Incog, or even put any pressure in his direction. In fact, "fine by me" just means I haven't seen anything wrong with it; he's basically saying, hey, why haven't you seen anything wrong with this? It seems kinda straightforward that Incognito's likely to be his buddy.

What we need is some A game scumhunting and we should be fine.

Don't think it's coincidental that ashmite echos Incognito's thoughts, here.

My apologies, I read through the thread, and definitely found Incognito suspicious. Take post 72 for example, I totally disagree with his claim that it doesnt matter what power roles the scum get. Not caring as to the power roles of scum, suggests he has no care for the town, thus making me think he is scum. My votes stands.

Really, really weak vote. Basically parroting Sarcastro here; pretty much looking for a reason to vote Incognito. ashmite later QFTs this post and uses it as a reaosn to vote for Incognito! Since the mafia can daytalk, they'd be coordinating the bussing; it makes sense to split up, two on and one arguing strenuously against it in case it doesn't result in a lynch.

Major pro-town points to Marmalade for Post 113 in which he votes for and FoS's two of the people who failed to explain their Incog-wagon votes.

Hey, look, how about that. Of course, there's no

reason

to give someone major pro-town points for that; they might easily be buddying up to you. This is something I've seen scum do with their buddies a lot, when they're trying to maintain the position that they're pro-town; if a buddy defends them in this kinda situation, they tend to agree and call them pro-town. I can't think of a good example offhand, though.

Incognito also does something classically scummy in post 151; he rails at ashmite for a paragraph, even using the

italics

to describe how wrong and scummy what he's doing is, gets a crappy response, and... leaves it there. Never follows it up. He does, however, continue his attack on Coron. Why? Because he wants to merely give the appearance of fighting back at ashmite, but knows Coron will actually carry on the conversation properly, so to speak.

Interestingly, BabyGirl puts a vote on Incognito for a somewhat crappy reason, and Flameaxe pops up to vote her, after Coron puts one on. I get decent vibes from the vote, though, her reason is pretty poor. Mellowed is scummy; a bunch of people follow me onto that wagon. It grows ridiculously fast, aaaand Dave places the hammer, saying "the incognito lynch is never going to happen", though apparently not reading the vote count. Huh.

Day two. Elvis correctly observes that "Dave posted 5 times total so far, voted incognito with no explanation and then just reguritated other people's reason's when questioned." starkmoon votes Dave! I am interested that Sarc sees Dave's action as a newbie scumtell. I get a slight vibe in that direction, rereading. Elvis and Ether's comments on being bussing seem incomplete; they don't allow for the possibility that someone would be bussed, but still be pissed about it regardless of the fact they could daytalk with the person doing it. I would probably be epicly pissed. Dave's reasoning for FoSsing Elvis in 278 is

terrible

. Being terrible at mafia's hardly a scumtell, but it's very significant when you consider Sarc's comment about Dave possibly being newbie scum, right? He's certainly newbish enough to pull that. Marmalade defends Dave, going so far as to FoS q21 for suggesting he be lynched! Interestingly, there are a lot of votes going on Dave at this point, from JDodge, Ether, etc. Oh, wow. Right on time. Incognito pops up to vote Flameaxe and says "Would any of the non-voters care to join me on a mid day 2 lurker wagon?" Jdodge says he's sure Flameaxe is town. Incognito backs off and suddenly decides "Dave needs to die". That's a pretty big tell; lurker wagons are usually an avenue of last resort, right? Why would you want to drive a wagon on a lurker, then (with no change in the game) say someone else pretty much needs to die? Armlx pops up to say Flameaxe is obv town this game. I have no idea why he said this offhand, but it really worries me right now, since Armlx is pretty good, and JDodge agrees, and Jdodge knows Flameaxe probably better than anyone. Xtoxm adds a vote to the growing Flameaxe wagon! I'd be near certain this is scum trying to fuel a counter-wagon to Dave's. His reason is truly terrible, "he's doing nothing". I'd be staggering if Flameaxe was his buddy. Dave makes some comment about self-hammering, saying "that way it wouldn't risk any other town players" which seems amazingly daft, like either he's hinting at being a super-saint or is just clueless; he says he's a townie in the same post. Dave self-votes.. this looks like trying to copy Incognito, and get out of being lynched that way.

Hi, Ether. She's pretty much totally right, far as I can see, and I feel like kicking myself for not getting it sooner. For no stated reason, Incognito's read of Xtoxm is "badly in flux". Incog has plenty of experience with Xtoxm-scum before; he's pretty obvious here, there's never really any doubt as to his alignment with the knowledge of the meta shown later. "Since he's entered the game, he has been commenting on game-related stuff even if his contribution has been short and sweet." in post 371 is outright evasive; he's avoiding commenting except when pretty much forced to, and it's mostly been oneliners; he hasn't been remotely involved in the game. That's pretty much exactly the scum-meta mentioned in the newbie game. Ether's 110% right here, you can basically go back, read all her posts, and QFT it, so I'll leave this alone now.

Xtoxm is scum.

Incognito is scum.

This is not a drill.

It's a combination of your FAILURE TO DO ANYTHING EVER and the fact that Incogscum, who should certainly know all about the differences between your scum/town play, tolerates this and tries to avoid you.

I feel he's been more vocal here than I would expect him to be as scum. In Mini 539, I also felt like he may have been actively lurking since he seemed to just be answering questions posed to other players but he turned out to be town there also.

Xtoxm's play? VOCAL? Read his posts. Nononono. Ding ding ding, we have a winner. You know what pisses me off most in mafia? When I'm dead right, I say stuff, then get killed off because I know what's going on, and no-one bothers to reread what I said. So, when someone smart dies, now I always reread who they were suspicious of, and why. And she's right.

Incognito uses Dave's self-vote as the sole reason not to support his lynch in 386. That's pretty transparent, in context. DGB votes for Dave, saying "I'd like to test Sarcastro's scumdar", which is interesting. Her vote is classic scum-town, in that she avoids giving any of her own reasoning (not like it wouldn't be evident, but hey).. I think it's very possible that DGB's distancing, here. She moves her vote off Dave and onto q21 a few posts later. DGB OBV COACHES XTOMX. HOW DID ANYONE MISS THIS. Incognito votes Coron in 498, despite (I think?) agreeing he was likely to be town earlier. Remember this attack is carried on from early day 1, right, as opposed to ashmite? Yeah. I'd be really surprised if Coron and Incognito were scum together.

A load more stuff happens, none of it that relevent. Armlx and Coron's interchange makes me giggle. Can see why I thought Sarc's reluctant vote for Xtoxm was scummy; in retrospect, it's because he's a lil' reluctant to move away from Incognito rather than to move to Xtoxm. This feels like a much more natural interpretation. Farside votes xtoxm in 697! I missed that. That makes me feel a bit better about her. Incognito easily slipping into agreeing with the majority that she feels "really scummy", as well as Coron, makes me feel even better about both of them. Gorrad real-posts for the first time in 724. "Incog and Coron are fairly obvious scumbuddies", hey, look, let's link my buddy in danger to someone pro-town, that's original! BIG scumtell here. "Xtoxm, it should be pointed out, is lurking a lot more than is typical of him. He's usually posting all the time." YES, CORRECT. THEREFORE? "Not sure if this is a scumtell, but it's different from the townplay I usually see from him." NO, NO, NO! YOU'VE HAD LIKE THREE PEOPLE POINT OUT HIS SCUM META, WTF? Way to be amazingly wishy-washy about soon-to-die scum. Flameaxe's lack of Xtoxm vote in 751 is odd, but it doesn't feel

that

bad. DGB's vote for Incognito in 777 is unusual. Definitely avoiding Xtoxm's wagon, I feel that she's more than capable of reading that Incog's wagon here won't pick up. Noteably, the lynch goes through, and then the next day, she votes Coron,

avoiding

Incog when he already has two or three votes from Sarc/Ether.

Day 3. Gorrad comes along. Stunningly obviously trying to link me and Incog. Scotmany prods him for an actual case, which he abjectly fails to provide. Farside makes a good point against me (I haven't mentioned my signup post at this point) based on what I feel is likely to be a genuine read. And

here's

an interesting point - remember DGB avoided Incog? Now she jumps onto him, and Gorrad pops up later to say I should be hammering. Gorrad fails to answer me about why I'm supposed to be scum. Note that Gorrad has basically done nothing at this point, to the point of blowing off any actual analysis in 873, but is

very

confidant that Incog's scum, and that I'm scum, and indeed

that we should be lynched in that order

. Jeep's Finding Mafia tells (origin of "jeeptell") states that "Mafia generally have more information than other players, so whoever picks up on tells/hints easiest is more likely to be mafia (+10%)." I think that's a pretty great example, in context. He has basically no solid reasoning for his conclusions on either of us (and has manifestly failed to provide any since then when questioned), yet he's

very

sure of himself at the time. "Yes, they're all scummy, but Incognito's the one that's surefire." in 897. Big, big tell. DGB chimes in right after, agreeing that Incognito should be lynched in 905. Incognito avoid commenting on DGB in 910, saying he's "not sure what to make" of her. Coron and DGB's interactions here are somewhat in Coron's favour. Farside votes DGB in 932! Even more townish. Her reason for the vote feels good. My post 981 is semi-right.. he's been doing the two things I describe, but I understand his attitude, now. He's convinced himself that Incog's correct, and the case is strong enough to get him lynched. I would guess that he's been accurate, actually, which is pretty good play; but I think he believes the case is much stronger to other people than it is. It's a trap I've occasionally fallen into in the past, as town - something's eminently obvious to me, so I just say it and assume it's obvious to anyone else. Actually, I have exactly the same attitude; will you please hurry up and lynch the scum, etc.

Gorrad's 996 is outright weird. He says the three scum are in a four-person group that doesn't include me, when he was apparently so sure beforehand. Scummeh. Pretty certain Incognito is scum in 1028, again. He's now trying to link him to armlx! This is hilarious. That's like three different people through the game. Then he hammers Armlx, saying "Tomorrow we can get to Incog".

Day five. Gorrad immediately votes Incognito, saying "Incog today, Elmo tomorrow". Can I haz obvious? Flameaxe follows him onto Incognito! Yes! DGB presses Coron a little, ignores various others. Jumps on behind me, gets caught, hee. Farside follows me onto DGB in a townish manner. Yay. Flameaxe wants to kill Incognito, cool. GORRAD POPS UP, AGAIN, IN 1228 TO SAY "We need to lynch one of the big leaders, such as Incog or Sarc, and see which is right and which is scum. At the moment, I seriously doubt both of them are town.". OBV OBV OBV. Perhaps it's coincidence that Incognito and Gorrad put the last two votes on DGB, heh. Certainly there's remarkably little interaction between them.

Day six.
Gorrad is absolutely faking being convinced by farside's analysis. Just please, the strength of his opinions he's expressed previously being changed by a couple of posted vote counts? No, just no. Coron correctly takes issue with this. Incognito still likes Gorrad as town in 1286, for shitty reasons! Yay! Farside does a shitload of townish analysis. Gorrad's stunningly wishy-washy about Flameaxe again in 1309. Let's angle for a mislynch, yay! Gorrad successfully irritates the shit out of me (what's new?).

Okay. I know what's going on. Everything makes sense.

---

A Smaller Summary

Flameaxe has some actual real-life thing happening. I don't think he's lurking purely because he thinks he can get away with it, but if he's scum, he might be lurking more than he would as town. I don't have a problem with Sarc's position, but still think he should be replaced instead of lynched.
Addendum, after reread: Various things over the course of the game make me feel that Flameaxe is pro-town. We should definitely be lynching someone else today. Specifically, confirmed town JDodge says he's town. Known scum freely voted for him.
Sarc's almost certainly town. I think his perception of things is that his cases were stonger than they were, and people were just not self-confidant enough to follow through with lynching, and there's some truth to that - but he's definitely town.
Coron's probably town on a number of levels, specifically DGB voting him, his town read on me (I think), and just general good gut vibes (c.f. Scotmany's gut). He's harder to read due to playstyle, but um, yeah.
Farside's just townish on general gut/meta. This is less solid that the others, I'll probably read over some games tomorrow. Addendum: There are a lot of points in her favour over the course of the game, actually. I'd be pretty happy saying she's town at this point.
Incognito's early day 1 wagon was bad and wrong. Smart pro-town people agree with me on this. Nonetheless, right for the wrong reasons; he remains scum. In particular, Ether was dead right about him and Xtxom. Also, I have ze meta on him, and I've now shown things specific to this game that make him a great lynch. Ether's case alone should have killed him days ago.
Gorrad's the leftover. He replaced Dave, who was very newbscum, refused to answer questions, and makes perfect sense as a scumbuddy for Incognito. There's always the possibility of confirmation bias, but the two of them fit quite nicely for me. Go look.

Actually, what was going on just about crystallised when I was thinking it over in bed last night, but that reread's really solidified my reads. I'd be all the money in my wallet that Incognito's scum, and I'd give really generous odds that Gorrad's his buddy.

---

Flameaxe

: Your next post should contain an Incognito vote, plz, if only for self-preservation.

Sarcastro's recent posts with respect to Gorrad are absolutely right. Gorrad needs to get in here and explain himself. Or die rapidly, preferably. Why am I never a dayvig? I wanted to be a dayvig. Why do I have to jump through all these hoops to kill people?

Hey, I wonder if we can figure out who Mr. I hid with now.
I want Incognito to explicitly spell out what is happening in post 314.
I want Incognito to explain why he didn't use the Dave wagon in his analysis of wagoning.

There, I've Done Stuff. It'd be nice if people'd try and match that level of effort, although perhaps not necessarily the length It's late, and I've written it somewhat haphazardly, but you should be able to see roughly what I mean. If there's something missing, I apologise. I'll do the metagaming with Incognito if people want, but I feel actually the issues in this specific game are more convincing at the moment. Damn, rereading is so helpful. Right, I'm off to bed.

Mod

: Please prod Gorrad. Tee yee.

[Coron]

"Perhaps it's coincidence that Incognito and Gorrad put the last two votes on DGB, heh. Certainly there's remarkably little interaction between them."

If this is true, it's a good catch. This is my newest and most favoritest scumtell.

Right now it's late, I'm tired and have class tomorrow, and want to go look at my other games, and spent forever reading that monster. So, yeah, not now.

[Gorrad]

Yo. Here. No need for prod.

I'd like to start by saying that that was a very good post. I'm thoroughly impressed, and it's made me much more confident in the scum. Remember how I said any of the four would help? With any of the four eliminated as a choice, it helps. Guess what, you just eliminated yourself from the list. Thanks!

However, you seem to be basing a lot of faith in the idea that I wouldn't have lynched you in a HEARTBEAT before Incog if your wagon was more prominant. I found you both scummy. I found him more so. You obviously find him more scummy than yourself as well, so wouldn't you do the same thing in my situation? Vote for the person you think more likely to be scum? I put pressure on both of y'all. Heck, I'm pretty sure I've put significantly more pressure on you than him. Also, in response to another point of yours, I withdrew my idea of Coron being scum a few posts after I made them, when I realised I had no idea why I had thought he was in the first place.

Now, Incog and Sarc are still a coinflip for me, but I'm sure they're of opposite alignments. I've suspected Incog for a long time, but I put a LOT of faith in vote analysis. I can honestly say there is no tell I trust more. That leaves Flameaxe as the second scum, as I'm now nigh-sure that Farside, Coron, and Elmo are town.

So for now, my list is Flameaxe, Incog, Sarc. If by some chance Flameaxe is town, then I'd honestly have to do a full reread.

Vote: Flameaxe

[Sarcastro]

Wow, Elmo. That has to be the best post I've seen in quite some time.

There's more I want to comment on, but for now I'd just like to clarify that I realise lynching Flameaxe right now is not the optimum play. I hope I've made it clear that my strong preference is not for Flameaxe to be lynched, but rather for him to begin contributing or to be replaced by someone who will. I still hope this can be achieved (and in fact would discourage anyone from hammering Flameaxe yet).

I'll comment on some of the others things you said in the next couple of days, depending on when I have time (university starts on Tuesday, so I have a lot to do). Suffice it for now to say that I found your post quite convincing.

[Elmo]

(and in fact would discourage anyone from hammering Flameaxe yet)

Pretty sure Gorrad's just hastily laid down the hammer to shut me up; there are about a million things wrong with his post. Flameaxe, vanilla townie, was lynched day six; a purely numerical loss to the town, but still pro-town.

It's Gorrad and Incognito. All you have to do is read back through the game, and look for the tells. I would bet everything in Incog being scum, in particular.

You two had better nightkill me tonight, or I will fucking destroy the pair of you tomorrow. (And none of that "oh, it's WIFOM" crap when I die, please.)

[Patrick]

Final Votecount

Sarcastro (1) -- Incognito
Flameaxe (4) -- Sarcastro, farside22, Coron, Gorrad
Incognito (1) -- Elmo

Not voting: Flameaxe
7 alive, 4 to lynch
--------------------------------

Today's victim is Flameaxe, and you all know alot rides on every lynch now. Flameaxe looks like he couldn't care less as he's overpowered and strung up, and it isn't long before he stops breathing. A search of his body doesn't tell you anything, so you all decide to search his home. As the six of you arrive at the street where Flameaxe lives, you all hear a huge explosion - it seems Flameaxe's house has been destroyed by a bomb. Inspection of the bomb site reveals nothing that might tell you whether Flameaxe was a member of the mafia or a townsperson; unfortunately you'll have to carry on without that information.

Flameaxe - ???? - lynched day 6

It is now night 6, with the usual 72 hour deadline.

[Patrick]

The mafia remains at large in your town, and the nightly murders serve as a reminder to anyone who might somehow forget. Coron was always afraid of the dark, and walked quickly after the day's lynching, not wishing to be caught out in the open. Alas, not quickly enough. Those side streets make a good spot for a quiet killing, and Coron was disposed of with maximum efficiency with a knife to the heart. Mercifully, he died quickly.

Coron - Townsperson - killed night 6

It is day 7. With just 5 alive, it's 3 votes to lynch.

[Elmo]

Okay, that was predictable. I didn't say it out loud on the off-chance the mafia didn't think of it. Depending on Flameaxe's alignment, we're now in LyLo. I'm pretty sure he was town.

Possibilities:
a) Flameaxe was scum. We lynch a townie today. We see tomorrow, and know he was scum because we didn't lose.
b) Flameaxe was scum. We lynch a scumbag today; there will be no tomorrow, because we won (2+1+1).
c) Flameaxe was town. We lynch a scumbag today; we go into tomorrow knowing Flameaxe was town, because we would have won if he was scum (2+1+1).
d) Flameaxe was town. We lynch a townie today, and we lose.

In particular, normal LyLo rules apply: a single vote from a townie on a townie will lose the game.

What I'm pretty sure is happening is:
* Flameaxe was town.
* We are in LyLo today.
* We will lynch scum today (or tomorrow is irrelevant).
* Therefore, tomorrow, we will know Flameaxe was town; i.e., that we were in LyLo today.

So I'm going to abuse that a bit.

The Play is:
* I vote Incognito.
* We wait; everyone checks in. If Incognito is town and Flameaxe was town, scum quickhammer, co-ordinated via daytalking, and we lose.
* Everyone checks in. No hammer. We then know that, if Flameaxe was town, at least one of {Elmo, Incognito} is scum.

No-one else votes

.
* Ditto with Gorrad.

Then it is either:
a) Flameaxe was scum.
b) Elmo is town and the scum are {Incognito, Gorrad}.
c) Elmo is scum.

Then we lynch Incognito-scum today. Tomorrow, we'll know that Flameaxe was town (eliminates possibility c). That

clears

whoever is still alive and didn't hammer today, and turns it into me-vs-Gorrad. The scum

cannot

nightkill me, because then I would be confirmed town, and therefore Gorrad would be confirmed scum.

Am I still looking so pro-town to you, Gorrad? Perhaps you were thinking you were screwed yesterday. No, kiddo, I'll show you what screwed looks like.

Phase one starts now.

Vote

:

Incognito

. Game on.

[Incognito]

I would have actually liked to respond to Elmo's post before anything else happened but meh, obviously that didn't happen.

Look, I'm pretty much in the same boat here as yesterday: I still think Elmo is town, I still think farside22 is town, and I still think Gorrad is town. As I mentioned yesterday, I thought Coron stood the highest chance of being Sarcastro's most likely scum buddy but it turns out he was town. Flameaxe's alignment was obviously hidden: if he was scum, then this makes perfect sense as with two scum remaining yesterday, this would have been the last possible chance for the scum to hide his alignment to make an impact in the game. Basically, if Flameaxe was scum, I have no problem being lynched today -- a number of you have mentioned that you think Sarc and I are of different alignments, and I've been arguing the point for awhile now that I think Sarcastro is scum so on the condition that you lynch him tomorrow, I've got no problem with my lynch today. If Flameaxe was town however, then that changes things obviously. Elmo, anything you wanted me to respond to in particular?

[Incognito]

Cross-posted and reading.

Elmo, seriously, I'm town. That's all I can really say about that. I've tried my best to defend myself and explain why my play here might look different from the play you've seen in my mini-games. Can you at least let me defend myself and try to put a case together as to why I think Sarcastro is scum?

[Elmo]

Xtoxm.
Why Gorrad is town.

I am not remotely interested in SarcScum, no.

[Incognito]

Can you unvote please while I respond?

[Elmo]

Nope.

Typey typey.

[Incognito]

Ugh. You suck. Just unvote. I'm not gonna waste my time typing shit while I stand the chance of getting quick-hammered in the meantime.

[Elmo]

Funny, that.

I still think Elmo is town, I still think farside22 is town, and I still think Gorrad is town.
[...]
Basically, if Flameaxe was scum, I have no problem being lynched today [..] I think Sarcastro is scum so on the condition that you lynch him tomorrow, I've got no problem with my lynch today. If Flameaxe was town however, then that changes things obviously.

I'm not gonna waste my time typing shit while I stand the chance of getting quick-hammered in the meantime.

So, like, Flameaxe was scum, Sarc is scum, right? So who's going to quickhammer you? It's almost like you know there's still two scum alive, ey?

We could play a game of chess or something while we waited, if you like.

[Incognito]

Anyway.

Okay, so typing as fast as I can lol.

Re: Xtoxm: The reason I was undecided about his alignment early on was mainly because of the timing of when he replaced and when he started producing content. I had only played with Xtoxm in... uhhhh,,, four games with him, two of which I played with him from start to finish (he was town in one while I was town along with him, scum in the other while I was town, and another where we were both scum <<<--- this one he replaced into). Right around the time he replaced in here, he was also replacing into another Newbie Game I was in (Newbie 581). I was under the impression that when he replaced in this particular game and began making posts, that he wasn't fully caught up to speed with all of the happenings in this particular game. If you look at the Newbie 581 game or even the Daytalking game, he produced long summary posts to summarize the events that he missed. He didn't do that here and instead just kinda began commenting on stuff so I was assuming his posting would pick up, that he would provide some kind of summary post to show where he stood on issues, and once he got caught up to speed, I would be able to get a better read on him. Obviously that didn't happen.

Ether began questioning me about my read of him to which I replied that my read wasn't solid yet since I

thought

he wasn't caught up yet, and she took this to mean that there was some kind of association between the two of us since I seemed waffly. The fact that he flipped scum of course didn't help out my position. If I had known that he was actually considering himself to be all caught up around the time that Ether began questioning me, I would have certainly had him pinned as scum -- after all, I think I have a really good meta read on him as demonstrated in those previous games that had been linked to by Ether and me.

Re: Gorrad

My town read of him is mainly due to the fact that Dave self-voted around the time that a wagon had developed on him. Pretty much every single time that I've seen Newbies self-vote not to lynch but closer to lynch, it's actually come from Newbie-town. I can link to specific games where I've used this as a town-tell before. The fact that he did this here led me to believe he was town. I didn't see much wrong with Gorrad when he replaced in either so my town read of him continued. Gorrad like you and Ether and I guess others that have played with me before also referenced previous games that I've played in and all noted that my play here was different. The fact that all of you took this meta into consideration when trying to read me here made me think that you're all likely to be town. There was enough in-thread stuff already, I think, to ring me up that for all of you to actually reference meta in your analysis of me when determining my alignment gave me a good sign.

[Incognito]

Funny, that.

I still think Elmo is town, I still think farside22 is town, and I still think Gorrad is town.
[...]
Basically, if Flameaxe was scum, I have no problem being lynched today [..] I think Sarcastro is scum so on the condition that you lynch him tomorrow, I've got no problem with my lynch today. If Flameaxe was town however, then that changes things obviously.

I'm not gonna waste my time typing shit while I stand the chance of getting quick-hammered in the meantime.

So, like, Flameaxe was scum, Sarc is scum, right? So who's going to quickhammer you? It's almost like you know there's still two scum alive, ey?

We could play a game of chess or something while we waited, if you like.

That's silly, Elmo. I

think

the three of you are town. I have no extra information or anything so really I could be wrong about one of you and that alone still gives me concern about a quick-hammer.