Hey, Gorrad, for a counterpoint to that, read the tail end of Big Love. That's basically a perfect example of how that kind of analysis can backfire. I'm serious when I say relying solely on that kind of analysis leaves you very open to non-clueless scum. For example, Farside22 is voting for scum in every votecount posted apart from day 2. A vote is not the same as a vote! If scum read the mood properly, they can vote for their buddies all the time in the knowledge that they probably won't be lynched. This results in stuff like Alice voting for Bob all through the game, saying Bob needs to die, and Bob not actually dying until like LyLo - 2. Then everyone is like, wow, she's been after him all game! She must be town!
There's also the fact that some scum will simply be hyper-conservative with respect to bussing and their voting patterns will look pro-town; possibly moreso than if they were actually town, because they can place themselves perfectly on each scum lynch. You might want to look at the recent
Satin Doll Showdown for an example of that.
I would like to emphasise that my play in this game (with respect to the signup thread thing) was sort of a proof by contradiction; I will sometimes try things I believe will not work, simply to verify that they actually don't. I think that I executed it fairly well (in particular everyone agreed I was pro-town at pretty much exactly when I wanted them to, and ignored me before that), but it was simply flawed from the start; certainly I've learnt quite a lot from how it affected the game flow. In particular, what happens relatively early has a *much* greater effect on the lategame than I thought, at least when people read back. I think I was right in that it didn't work, but totally wrong as to why.
Incognito wrote:Second of all, I have been poking at lurkers this game. There's actually quite a few of them, and it's fucking impossible for me to poke at all of them at the same time. Can we run down the list? DGB, Gorrad, Sarcastro, Xtoxm (if you'd like to include him), farside22, Coron, Flameaxe, Elmo... I mean seriously.
I am curious that all the scum lurked. I'm not sure how much that contributed; Farside and Sarc played pretty well, from what I can see, but I have to wonder how well lynch all lurkers would have worked here. Let's remove JDodge and Flameaxe (for whom lurking is quite clearly a null tell), Coron (who either wasn't lurking or for whom it's a null tell, depending on your definitions) and me for whom I'm (in my view) largely excused by my sign-up thread post; that leaves (in order of lurkiness) DGB, Gorrad, Sarcastro, Xtoxm (if you'd like to include him), farside22. That's a town win with onl one mislynch.
Interestingly, armlx's reads seemed a lot different from the majority view, but (iirc) if you combine them both, I think the scum are in there. Perhaps that's a statement of the obvious, but I can't help feeling there's a general principle nibbling at me somehow.
BM: I just thought Sarcastro sucked as scum. "Metagame Sarcastro" was on my todo list, but virtually nothing on that got done this game. (shrug)
Also, wow, armlx and Coron's exchange starting around 581 is probably the best thing ever.
Succinctness is pro-town.
Passion is inversely proportional to the amount of real information available. ~ Gregory Benford
