Newbie 655: Zeroville. (Game Over!)

[JonMW]

I still get one, but if he NKs the guy that I investigate, then I think we still don't have the info for a perfect lynch?

[JonMW]

Yeah, all the branches of the game are mind-boggling... but I still won't act unless I'm sure.

[afatchic]

well if you investigated the person i have a feeling you would have, i will admit i am shocked. lol. and judging by the FOS i guess you didn't investigate me last night. so i think if you give info and doc claims we could win, but then you would have to trust my word. i still think the no lynch is a good idea. this way we don't accidentally lynch doc so you can at least get an investigation tonight.

[JonMW]

I figured it out... we

will

win this. Let me walk you through.

Currently, I have 1 known innocent.

We play normally, but NO HAMMERING until I say so. If you guys select the townie that I investigated, I'll say so, and then we randomly pick another person to lynch. We go through with it.

Tonight - I get another investigation. However, the scum can only remove one of the two I.D'd townies at this point.

Tomorrow: three players left. I'll have either investigated the scum on the previous night, or have enough information to win:
There will be myself, the scum, and a townie that I have confirmed as innocent.
Game over!

[JonMW]

So, are we going to have a forfeit, or are we going to watch the whole thing unfold with wonderful, horrible inevitability?

[JonMW]

Of course, if you're the doctor and we're about to lynch you,

speak up

.

[JonMW]

If you're not the doctor and also not the townie that I investigated... well, that's a bit of sad luck for you. But you'll have to take this one for the team.

[afatchic]

well if you would like to do it that way then i will

VOTE SDK

. his play in the past days had me thinking he could be scum. and by process of elimination i came up with him.

[afatchic]

yeah unless you are really not the cop an are scum that bussed your partner yesterday really badly then i don't think there is any way for a town loss.

[JonMW]

Yeah... I'm kinda assuming that everyone has accepted that I'm cop at this point?

If I am scum, doing what I did yesterday would have basically shot the team right in the foot, the ass, and then also stabbed it in the back. michel/populartajo was basically probably the most capable of staying under the radar. Wasn't on anyone's scumlist at the end of day 1.

[afatchic]

yeah i agree, so who are you thinking is possible scum? a good idea that you may wanna do is use the box down at the bottom to only look at Michel's posts and look at his next to last post. it has a list of every player and what he thought of them, may be helpful. he voted for whereistony to. i don't know what to think about it though.

[JonMW]

Everyone except myself and the guy I investigated is possible scum. I even suspect Yuu, and I mentioned this much earlier... somewhere around page 4?

Populartajo mentioned that my new play is vastly different to Day 1, asking if I was faking newbieness. Pointing out how I was running behind M4yhem before, and then moving against him. I wasn't faking, but I learn pretty quick.

[JonMW]

By the way, this isn't going to go anywhere until everyone starts throwing votes - or at least FoSs - around.

[afatchic]

well would you agree with my vote? i just don't see yuu being scum. seems to protown.

[JonMW]

I don't think I'll participate in this round of accusations - maybe just for actual hammering. So that I don't send any mixed messages (as a vote and a feigned attack may be misconstrued as a hammer approval) I won't say yay or nay about anyone until it's clear that their life is on the line.

Similarly, we can't lynch anyone unless they're had a chance to defend themselves. I hope nobody's gone lurking or AWOL.
Maybe they expected that it won't go to Day 3 until the full 72 hours are up...

[JonMW]

I guess that at this point it doesn't actually matter - but I still don't want to expose the innocent guy/girl unless I have to. Principle of the thing. Also, I'd like to see how people act when they don't know who their friends are.

[WhereIsTony]

Well Jon is pretty much certainly the cop.

Fos Yuu, Somedamnkid kid for not voting

Not enough to vote because, simply not believing jon is not enough to vote.

[WhereIsTony]

Vote afatchic

A no lynch is never a good idea and ALWAYS seems scummy to me.

I suspect everyone but Jon at this point.

Also just because theres a cop and a roleblocker does not mean there IS a doctor does it? (thats an actual question)

[Yuu]

Tony, yes, it means. There's only a mafia roleblocker if there're no power roles or if there're both. Unless Jon isn't a real cop (and who believes he's scum at this point?), there's a doctor.


(I'm lazy to use the quote tag, and it won't work anyway):
Tony: "Not enough to vote because, simply not believing jon is not enough to vote."

Sorry, I didn't understand what you said. Don't you believe Jon?

FoS SDK

. His disappearance seems suspect to me. Last day he didn't appear, might have something to do with PopularTajo being lynched. If they were partners and SDK didn't know how to act, maybe he thought staying away would be the best option for him. As the day was quick, he might even said he wasn't online, but there's no way to confirm that unless he appears and starts posting.

[WhereIsTony]

No I meant the fact that you did not vote as jon said was a possible scum tell but not neough for me to vote for you

[afatchic]

how would a no lynch be a bad thing for town. think about it this way. we get someone to L-1. they claim doc, now scum knows who to kill. or maybe they don't claim so they don't get NK'ed and now we lynch doc and jon dies tonight. however if we no lynch, scum has to take a random guess, and only has a 25 percent chance of hitting doc. and as long as doc and cop are alive there will be no way we can lose. this is the one time a no lynch would be good for town. we have a 20 percent chance of actually lynching scum and 80 percent chance of lynching townie.

FOS whereistony

for wanting a lynch.

and can you please explain to me how a no lynch in this situation would be bad for town?

[Yuu]

Tony, there's a very plausible reason I didn't vote: The day could've lasted longer. Sure, we knew Popular was scum, but we should've let him talk. The more he talked and people argued, the more information we would've had, maybe even enough to find his partner. A rushed lynch only favors scum, because it prevents discussion. Now we don't have PopularTajo, who could have betrayed his friend if he ended up talking more, and neither M4yhem, who was one of the ICs, so theoretically he could've have helped even more, as he already had done. Let's not forget how he was the one who made Jon talk.


Afatchic, your idea looks reasonable, I'm gonna make a table and see how it works - I'm still in doubt because we have to take in account we aren't lynching blindly (so we have a better chance to kill mafia today) and mafia might have a better idea at who is the doctor than we think. I'm pretty sure no lynch is the best option, but let everyone give their two cents before any decision is reached.

[WhereIsTony]

No lynch

Scum kills doctor.

Jon or investigates townie who is killed. or scum kill guy jon investigates

We then are down to 4, no better off excpet now there are 2 possible scum targets instead of 3.

that night jon is killed.

-------------------------------------

or we go for a lynch today best case we get the mafia guy

worst case we kill the investigated townie. this leaves jon, one guy investigated ad two not.

Jon investigates. one if if he is scum he is lynched the next day if not the other is.


Or we try to lynch a guy who turns out to be the doc. the guy claims doc, then we pick a new target. Even if the scum claims doc as well we kill one or the other and we KNOW if we are wrong the other one who claimed is scum.

We 100% cannot go wrong with a lynch assuming the doc claims if he is endangered.

----------------

A no lynch always beneifts scum.

[WhereIsTony]

So with a no lynch we definitely lose a townie possibly the doc

with a lynch if we do lose the doc, it will only be because two people claimed doc and we chose the wrong one. in which case we have a 100% chance the next day no matter who is NK'd

[somedamnkid]

I apologize for my absence, the last I checked the game was 10amish on monday (when i last posted) I was out all day that Monday, and by the time school ended on Tuesday it was already night. So yes my being absent was suspicious but I assure you it was because I was truly absent. As the school year has now started I will not be playing until this time each day.