Mini 645 - Innocence Falls (Game Over)


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Post Post #625 (ISO) » Fri Sep 05, 2008 9:43 pm

Post by nureins »

Ythill wrote:
nuriens wrote:
More or less you answered me. I have a clear view of your position with respect to your suspects. With respect to sirdan, hey, I consider him scummy, and I would lynch him, but, what else can we do ? I guess nothing but confusing everybody...

Im pretty convinced that both your attacking style and my writting style do not play in favour of our arguments. Then, if all these scumtells that we already stated are not enough, there is nothing else we can do...lot of people is doubting, let them to decide without your pressure or my "repetition"...

I find pretty funny that some people use NOW your aggressive style. That was pretty obvious from our goebels-scum vis a vis, dont you think? Im sure there is something there to be explored, though probably some info is needed before...
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Post Post #626 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 2:47 am

Post by Simenon »

sirdanilot wrote:
Simenon wrote:
sirdanilot wrote:
How
is it unfair. Back this up.
The burden of proof is
not
on me here.
You could've just answered the question.
Nope. The burden of proof is on you. I can't respond to evidence that isn't there.
Not bad =/= not anti town.
Yes, it necessarily means it's not anti-town by definition.
So, let's try again. I do think your play is bad for the town. Why? Because it doesn't contribute, and gives the town less information than when you would contribute more.
But I think I am contributing. I wrote that before, and then you responded by asking me to prove that claim. But you have yet to provide evidence for my lack of contribution. See? You have to back up your claim first so I know what I am actually responding to.
You're contributing a bit, but not enough. You just comment on single one-liners that you picked up and you reply to them with a one-liner. Sure, this contributes a bit, but you could've done more.
I'm trying to do the little bit that I can.

And most of my posts are "one-liners." That doesn't make my points any less valid.
You could've also answered it. Let me rephrase. I want you to clarify your play in your last few posts. I can't do this since I don't know if you're town or not, and you do know your own alignment.
I think I already did. My play for right now has been to either respond to your points if they're valid or to ask you to back them up if I think they aren't.
I didn't say that. If you had gotten into a big debate, it would've been helpful, but there are also other ways to be helpful. For example, I think that what Cass is doing is helpful. I am not going to tell you exactly how to be helpful, if you're town you should know what to do.
Thanks. I've played consistently for almost two years as both town and scum, which as you can imagine involves plenty of games and plenty of posts. I don't think you need to tell
me
what helps the town and what hurts the town.
Let me rephrase: What do you think of Ythill's playstyle (which includes not answering a very large part of my defense)?
I couldn't care less about Ythill's playstyle. It seems fairly mainstream and conventional. I don't like his "hahaha your scum" thing, since it seems uncharacteristic.

Now, if you were to ask me how I think Ythill's play has been, that's different. I'm not too impressed. I've already quoted a few posts where the language felt strange to me. I will quote myself if you need me to.
Learn to back up your claims.
Why
is it silly?
Learn to back up
my
claims? That's rich.

It's silly because you're obviously trying to shoot his point down by pretending to take offense, when really Ythill's point is actually quite reasonable.
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Post Post #627 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 3:17 am

Post by Jahudo »

sirdanilot wrote: Ew. Why did you not FoS or vote him (or anyone else) before I asked? Why did you need my question to do so? I am not fond of this reply...
.
Ew? Um, you asked me who I found suspicious and that was my reply. I figured you didn't know I was trying to investigate Citizen Karne for the past two weeks and then I thought Citizen Karne must not know about it either. I probably wouldn't need an unsubstantiated FoS if X number of days hadn't of passed by.

As for talking about the lynch, I don't feel comfortable putting my vote for Karne if he's not going to talk. I'm just not that confidant but waiting around for another replacement or for him to play more actively doesn't seem like a fair option.

With the whole sirdan v. Ythill issue, I found Ythill's approach fair but I can't decide who is right. I really need to sit down and go through it piece by piece.

Apart from that, I find nhat and Andy's less-active contributions of note but not scummy. I'm also not sure what all this compromise on people you don't think are scummy is.
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Post Post #628 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 7:08 am

Post by Ythill »

Jah wrote:As for talking about the lynch...
It seems you have only listed those whom are not your lynch candidates but are close. Do you have any candidates? Who are they?
Jah wrote:With the whole sirdan v. Ythill issue, I found Ythill's approach fair but I can't decide who is right. I really need to sit down and go through it piece by piece.
Please do. I'll gladly answer reasonable questions.
Jah wrote:I'm also not sure what all this compromise on people you don't think are scummy is.
My part in this is Pacman and it's really quite simple. I'd rather not lynch Pacman. However, if the choice came down to hanging him, hanging one of the five I've not listed, or going no-lynch, I'd hammer Pacman. The reason? His wagon has great information potential if his card is flipped. Plus the second wagon would offer more information.

In short, I'm not willing to no-lynch and I'd rather risk a mislynch that provides good information than risk one that doesn't. Of course in an ideal world, we'd just hang sirdan and none of this would matter.
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Post Post #629 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 7:11 am

Post by Ythill »

nuriens wrote:I find pretty funny that some people use NOW your aggressive style. That was pretty obvious from our goebels-scum vis a vis, dont you think? Im sure there is something there to be explored, though probably some info is needed before...
Another good catch. I'll appreciate your help looking into this on future days if you are still alive. Also, this facet is another decent reason to hang sirdan.
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Post Post #630 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:08 am

Post by pacman281292 »

pacman281292 wrote: I will be LA during the whole weekend. Sorry :(
Nevermind. I got internet access.

I don't know what to say about who to lynch...
Ythill wrote:My part in this is Pacman and it's really quite simple. I'd rather not lynch Pacman. However, if the choice came down to hanging him, hanging one of the five I've not listed, or going no-lynch, I'd hammer Pacman. The reason? His wagon has great information potential if his card is flipped. Plus the second wagon would offer more information.
Does not compute, does not compute, does not compute *explodes*

I can't understand why a wagon on me would be good for town. I can't understand what do you mean with "informative townie". Can you explain why a wagon on me would be "informative"?
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Post Post #631 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 10:41 am

Post by Cass »

Pacman wrote:I don't know what to say about who to lynch...
Surely you must have something to say? Who would you prefer to lynch, or who wouldn't you lynch? Do you think it's a horrible idea to lynch you?Why?
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Post Post #632 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:02 am

Post by nureins »

Cass wrote:Citizen Karne is obviously my top pick. Right now I'd be willing to compromise on (in no particular order) Sirdan, Pacman (habit) and Ythill. All of these might be scum and their lynches would yield information.
Cass, citizen has been very suspicious to me with his pairing accusation without any justification and how he avoids to answer both Jahudo and you.
he later changed the reasons for suspecting me and only said he "declined" to answer me because he agreed with Simenon post, and avoided discussion.
I know all that. However, Id like to know if you have something else to consider him "top scum", that is a bit excessive to my eyes. Also, which was your view of Matin ?(sorry, I should read it, i know, but a line by you will be simpler and it is connected to my question on citizen)
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Post Post #633 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 11:11 am

Post by nureins »

sirdanilot wrote: Jahudo somehow gives me a scum vibe, but I know that if I'd make a case against him it would turn out into nothing. He just gives me a vibe, that's all.
As Im waiting for more people to give opinions and conform a view of who to lynch, Ill not be too much aggressive. How is possible you want to lynch someone, you find him scum but you believe your case would turn out into nothing? please explain me that...
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Post Post #634 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 1:24 pm

Post by pacman281292 »

Cass wrote:Do you think it's a horrible idea to lynch you?Why?
I meant that Ythill said that a wagon on me would be "informative". He must explain it.

I will try to reread the thread and answer your question later(but it might finish in an epic fail). There are lots and lots of stuff to read. Ow >.<.
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Post Post #635 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 3:17 pm

Post by Andycyca »

Damn, I can't keep up with school and Mafia. No games for a while.

Mod: I request replacement
I can help you looking for one, if you want.

I'm very sorry guys.
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Post Post #636 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 4:13 pm

Post by Goatrevolt »

Lynching someone you don't think is scum for information purposes is really bad. Every single lynch yields information. Certainly a pacman lynch would yield more information than others, but is that extra information worth lynching someone if you don't really suspect them of being scum? Absolutely not.

Let's see, I'm suspicious of Jahudo, Citizen Karne, Sirdan, Ythill, Andycya and Simenon.

I'm not sure how to order those yet, or how to rectify suspicions of two players that don't seem likely to be scum with each other (Sirdan/Ythill for instance). Also, where is Ectomancer? He's basically disappeared completely.
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Post Post #637 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 6:56 pm

Post by Jahudo »

pacman281292 wrote: I meant that Ythill said that a wagon on me would be "informative". He must explain it.
I think some of this information would be to look at habitang around post 300 or so (page 13) and how everyone reacted. Also habitang was questioned by more people than several other players have experienced in this game.

I also don't think this information is worth the risk. It may increase the chances of catching scum day 2, but I think it decreases the chances today.


...still reading up on sirdan
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Post Post #638 (ISO) » Sat Sep 06, 2008 7:44 pm

Post by Erratus Apathos »

Vote Count

sirdanilot: (2) nureins, Ythill
nureins: (2) Citizen Karne, Ectomancer
Ythill: (2) sirdanilot, nhat
pacman281292: (1) Simenon
Jahudo: (1) Goatrevolt
Citizen Karne: (1) Cass

Not voting: Jahudo, Andycyca, pacman281292

Seeking replacement for Andycyca. Citizen Karne, Ectomancer, and nhat have been prodded.
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Post Post #639 (ISO) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 2:40 am

Post by pacman281292 »

Jahudo wrote:
pacman281292 wrote: I meant that Ythill said that a wagon on me would be "informative". He must explain it.
I think some of this information would be to look at habitang around post 300 or so (page 13) and how everyone reacted. Also habitang was questioned by more people than several other players have experienced in this game.
Unfortunately, I'm not habitang.

A replacement on Ectomancer would be awesome, given that his last post was "Prodded, rereading" and was a week ago.
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Post Post #640 (ISO) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 6:56 am

Post by Ythill »

pacman wrote:I meant that Ythill said that a wagon on me would be "informative". He must explain it.
No problem.

First, I'd ask Jah to stop answering questions posed to others until after the recipient has answered. That said, he has made a decent guess at what I meant, which is...

Habit seemed scummy to me in the early game. While my vote was on nuriens, Cass asked me to post a case on another of my candidates so that she could get a read on me. I chose habit. Immediately following my case, a few people attacked habit without voting him. If you are confirmed town, the actions of these folks could have been an attepmt to mislynch habit or steer attention away from nuriens (or someone else, I'd have to reread to tell you).

Habit felt the pressure of the attacks and appeared to crack. This drew votes, some of them suspect, and a wagon built on him quickly. If you are confirmed town, an analysis of when and how people jumped on that wagon will reveal scumtells. If you are confirmed scum, it will be interesting to look for signs of the bus or to examine the people that worked against your lynch.

The wagon stagnated quickly, and suspicion was thrown back onto it. I selected Jah as a good candidtae for further investigation and spent some time attacking him. As I did, the habit wagon evaporated. If you are confirmed town, the speed and timing of the unvotes (compared with the votes themselves and the arguments in between) will be very revealing. If you are confirmed scum, I would look for people who manipulated the evaporation of that wagon.

Furthermore, lynching you would take a substantial number of new votes, which would be very likley to offer some of the same clues about the alignments of people who push for your death, quietly ride the bandwagon, or work to avoid it.

Again, I am not advocating your lynch. We are speaking of consensus and compromise and I have simply been transparent with my thoughts. I am not sure you are town. If I was, no amount of information potential could tempt me to vote for you. And there are at least four (possibly five) peole I'd rather lynch. But, if it came down to the choices I mentioned earlier, I'd vote for you.

Also, realize that there are other ways to confirm your alignment. We would get the same benefits from a sane cop investigation, confirmed mason claim, vig kill, other NK, etc. Which is another reason I am not advocating your lynch.
pacman wrote:Unfortunately, I'm not habitang.
I think you misunderstand. Nobody has asked you to answer for habit's actions. The potential information to be gained from your reveal has more to do with others' actions.
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Post Post #641 (ISO) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 7:02 am

Post by sirdanilot »

nureins wrote:
sirdanilot wrote: Jahudo somehow gives me a scum vibe, but I know that if I'd make a case against him it would turn out into nothing. He just gives me a vibe, that's all.
As Im waiting for more people to give opinions and conform a view of who to lynch, Ill not be too much aggressive. How is possible you want to lynch someone, you find him scum but you believe your case would turn out into nothing? please explain me that...
I mentioned my gut feeling. My gut says Jahudo may be scum. I have little clarification for this (so far only his lack of voting/suspecting people) and there are bigger suspects than him (Ythill, Simenon to some extent). I mentioned this gut feeling because, well, I think it's something for the town to consider, however small. I am not going to advocate a Jahudo lynch, since Ythill is way more likely to be scum. That doesn't take away that if it somehow would come to a Jahudo L-1, I'd hardly hesitate to hammer since there wouldn't be that little voice in my head that says 'don't lynch him'. Hence, I felt I should mention it and I did.

On to Ythill. Somehow, it didn't occur to me that a Ythill meta would be very helpful to determine if he uses this play style more often. So, let's investigate this. I did not read every single post of his in every single game, obviously. I glanced over Ythill's posts in these games and I checked if I saw interesting things, like the badgering he is doing to me. If I happen to miss some badgering and someone else (like Ythill himself) knows that he did badger in that game, be my guest to inform me. Just don't go and accuse me of shit like 'you purposefully ignored that post I badgered there too and I was town sirdan-scum olol'.

Now, is a meta definitive evidence? Most certainly not. I do however feel that a meta may add something about Ythill.

Newbie 493 (Vanilla): He didn't seem to be very aggressive in that game. The most notable, however, is that he at some point replaced out because another player kept offending people. Now, I didn't read into that other player that much so I'm not sure if he really offended him, but this does remind me of something with pot, kettle, black...
Mini 508 (Vanilla): Not that aggressive in this game imo. He replaced in at the end.
Mini 539 (Vig): He refused to random vote in this game too. Anyway, every single post of his is absolutely humongous (as in, really really big) so I'm not too sure what to think of that. His posts here aren't that big (although they're not exactly small). I agree that post length doesn't say all that much, so on to the content. He isn't that agressive for the biggest part of this game, but at some point he resorts into questioning the intelligence of a certain player. Nowhere, however, do I see stuff like 'hahaha you're scum' 'scum :D' '(playername)-scum lol'.
Mini 542 (Vanilla): No random vote again. Not very aggressive imo.
Mini 565 (Mafia Godfather): Wow, finally a game where Ythill's scum ( he seems to have pretty bad luck when it comes to getting fun roles!). Anyway, no random vote again. The phrase 'to my detractors' happened to catch my eye. He is slightly more aggressive in this game than in others, or at least it gives me that feeling.
Mini 591: No random vote. He utilizes HoS, FoS and whatnot in this game (and he claimed not to do that here in 645!). I don't see any obvious badgering here.

General habits: Not really that aggressive as scum nor as town. At the beginning of every game, he explains his play style ('sometimes I keep things secret and you may not perceive that as a scumtell') at the beginning of every game and he does not random vote. Some of his posts are humongous and include tables and analysis of every player from different viewing angles. These are mostly when he is playing town-aligned.

So, conclusion:
1. No badgering in the games he has finished (and that I checked). As far as I know, this is the first time he is badgering like this.
2. He never random votes.
3. He utilized FoSes in other games, and he claimed not to. Most suspicious thing so far IMO.

This meta didn't make me any less suspicious of Ythill. I learned a lot about Ythill's habits and play style so I do not think it was useless at all. It took me a very long time to make this, but I think it was worth it.
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Post Post #642 (ISO) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 7:32 am

Post by Simenon »

If it came to deadline, I'd be willing to vote for any of the three wagons.

I actually suspect nuriens is town. But his posts are hard to read and he's a struggle to keep up with. When you get to the point of his post, it ends up not being worth reading in the first place. I wouldn't support his lynch above SirDan, but I certainly wouldn't mind finishing him off if it came to that. See my characterization of his playstyle (it was a joke, but it had some truth to it).

I've already commented on Ythill being awkward in this game. I still am seeing his Post 621 as a big act of hypocrisy. Some of his language choices have been unfortunate ("someone needed to say something"). His argument with sirdan was silly at best. As much as I dislike constraints on discussion, I have to agree with the rest of the thread: "haha you're scum" is a waste of space. I'm not liking much here, but there are also some things to appreciate; his attack on Jah, for example.

I'm probably going to devote more time to sirdan later. In the meantime, a rough summary: I don't like his initial attack on goat, which was a much hyped analysis that turned out to have nothing much behind it. When he was called out on that, he ceded points until he was left waffling. His attack on Ythill was marked by men in straw. Eventually, when the straw guys collapsed, he wrote If that is your definition of scumhunting, then this debate is over", which was weak. I don't like his repeated attempt to force people into taking simplistic issues on complex questions (there are many examples of this). He explanation of it was okay, but I still think it discourages nuance, when many of his questions require that nuance.

That's just where I stand. I would prefer a wagon on pacman, but since these are our three leaders, I'm okay with them too. Jahudo is also someone I'm willing to consider.
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Post Post #643 (ISO) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 9:00 am

Post by nureins »

Simenon wrote: I actually suspect nuriens is town. But his posts are hard to read and he's a struggle to keep up with.
It seems it is hard to read my posts, but you are buying all my arguments. You consider Ythill suspicious for something I first noted so long ago when he attacked me. Now I'm fascinated for how people awake to that attitude so late. And you consider Sirdan suspicious for something I first noted so long ago when he constructed Goat's case. Anyway, I do not want any medal at all, but if you consider me town, I guess it is not only my task to write "better" but yours to read "better" too.


-----

With the expressed opinions of Nureins, Ythill, Cass, Sirdan, Goat and Simenon (sorry Jah, I agree with who posted after you, where are your suspects ?) the following names appeared (by decreasing number of times, and including almost any suspicion).

SIRDAN: 5
YTHILL, JAHUDO: 4
SIMENON, CITIZEN, PACMAN: 3
ANDY, NHAT, NUREINS: 1

Two of the suspicions of jah and pacman were very soft, but I included them for a first evaluation.
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Post Post #644 (ISO) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 9:49 am

Post by Simenon »

nureins wrote:
Simenon wrote: I actually suspect nuriens is town. But his posts are hard to read and he's a struggle to keep up with.
It seems it is hard to read my posts, but you are buying all my arguments. You consider Ythill suspicious for something I first noted so long ago when he attacked me. Now I'm fascinated for how people awake to that attitude so late. And you consider Sirdan suspicious for something I first noted so long ago when he constructed Goat's case. Anyway, I do not want any medal at all, but if you consider me town, I guess it is not only my task to write "better" but yours to read "better" too.
You're assuming that I consider post 642 to contain original thought, which is a baseless assumption as well as an incorrect one.
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Post Post #645 (ISO) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 10:34 am

Post by Cass »

Heh, if we're going to lynch people over some kind of consensus-compromise, you should at least used ranked lists. Count 'favorite lynches' double or triple. Sirdan may be on my list, but he isn't number one or two on that list. I'd only hammer him if the alternative was no lynch or someone not on my list.
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Post Post #646 (ISO) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 10:48 am

Post by Simenon »

I have a first choice (obviously pacman) and a second choice (sirdan), but after that it all gets pretty arbitrary, right? I don't see the point in a ranked list.
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Post Post #647 (ISO) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 10:55 am

Post by nureins »

Cass wrote:Heh, if we're going to lynch people over some kind of consensus-compromise, you should at least used ranked lists. Count 'favorite lynches' double or triple. Sirdan may be on my list, but he isn't number one or two on that list. I'd only hammer him if the alternative was no lynch or someone not on my list.
Taking into account that people used from 3 to 6 players, that their suspicions were vaguely expressed, etc (and I think this is ok not to give too much info to scum), I guess the simplest way is to take a look to numbers and then everybody doing whatever they feel is the more adequate to compromise. For instance, if Id be voting a player who is down in suspicions, Id change my vote to someone I consider scummy but is more suspicious. I guess that when you proposed compromise you were not suggesting a serious assign points - sum points - lynch the one with more points... method. Especially taking into account that mafia could manipulate it..

So I prefer this to be very vague, and we are all old enough to understand if we are compromising and reaching a kind of consensus..probably, when two persons have plenty of votes, a compromise will be easier...
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nureins
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Post Post #648 (ISO) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 11:08 am

Post by nureins »

In any case, if you just propose to put 2 or 3 points on current vote (or top scum), this makes:

number of times appearing (top = any)
SIRDAN: 5
YTHILL, JAHUDO: 4
SIMENON, CITIZEN, PACMAN: 3
ANDY, NHAT, NUREINS: 1

---------------

(top = 2 points)
SIRDAN 7
YTHILL, JAHUDO: 5
CITIZEN, PACMAN: 4
SIMENON: 3
ANDY, NHAT, NUREINS: 1

----------------
(top = 3 points)
SIRDAN: 9
YTHILL, JAHUDO: 6
CITIZEN, PACMAN: 5
SIMENON: 3
ANDY, NHAT, NUREINS: 1

As you can see, there are minor changes, but what I commented before remains. Any of us will clearly know what to do when most people express their opinions...
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Post Post #649 (ISO) » Sun Sep 07, 2008 12:20 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Okay after rereading I see some good points about Sirdan but also where he’s misleading things.

1) Sirdan gives his opinion that Goat changed his style of play, lurking at convienent times, the PBPA was out of character, etc. When nureins summarized these points, I didn’t see where nureins was manipulating instead of just disagreeing. As a starting point for being suspicious of someone (Goatrevolt) I think Sirdan was justified in what he believed and was doing. On a side note, Goat’s lurking was at the heart of this theory, and that is should be harder to say you’re confidant it’s a scum lurk or a town lurk. I don’t recall Sirdan labeling Goat as scum outright, he showed doubt in 524 and elsewhere I think.

2) The accusations by nureins weren’t the only thing that allowed this seemingly legal debate snowball into the back and forth of ‘I’m not wrong, you’re wrong.’ Sirdan’s reaction posts showed that he either was holding back opinions from before, just coming up with them as time went on, or inflating his case with things we might not fact check in our long succession of long posts. Here’s an example:
sirdanilot post 463 wrote:People were starting to suspect Goat for not participating, so he might have wanted to suddenly participate more, and you know that scum are paranoid.
Why add this later on after you were under pressure? The only one who suspected Goat for inactivity was Cass back on post 236. To me, this sounds like your case is bolstered by something we supposedly thought, but didn’t.

3) On a side note, Goat’s answers to getting back into the game after his prod seemed appropriate in 466. I don’t see how it would change opinion if you are sure he’s town or scum, but it feels honest to me.

4) I don’t accept the accusation by sirdan that Ythill jumped on him with a vote without prior suspicion and a desire to debate with sirdan. 493 sounded like a fair explanation for why he called sirdan slippery doesn’t have the intention of blindly influencing public opinion. Sirdan-scum may cross the line, but I don’t even know where the line is separating feeling-opinion and thinking-opinion. Stuff like TPT is town and Goebbels has made me take “haha, whatever scum” with a grain of salt.

4b) So I don’t mind the badgering, but it affects sirdan’s reactions depending on his personality and I think that leads to the possibility of misinterpretation. In the back and forths where sirdan says Ythill is refusing to continue the debate and Ythill says sirdan is side-stepping the argument, I feel that the badgering affects this to an extent I don’t see a strong enough tell. I’ve been unsure how effective the “adversarial player” persona is to untested players.

5) Sirdan is TPT’s replacement and I think that does mean something. For me, that’s rollover scumminess and more opportunities where a sirdan lynch brings us information tomorrow.

Ok so top 2 suspects if today ended today:
Citizen Karne for reasons I’ve expressed and sirdanilot I would vote for also. It’s informative and I see holes in his defense.

I got gut suspicions on Ecto and can provide crazy theories and quotes if you want. After that I’m unsure about nhat and Andy but don’t have much to turn to. The rest are pro-town and even though Pacman can kick-start lots to talk about tomorrow, I don’t want to vote him.

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