Jenethron wrote:3. All those voting armlx, why are you still voting for him? What makes him a more convincing target than others?
My main point is that he is very resolute in his opinion but does not spend time with the hypothetical scenario that Adel flips town and we go to day 2. He also doesn't search for the other scum partner that was on the wagon, which I think would've helped the case today. I feel his first priority was ending Day 1 even if it didn't close all angles.
Back around Aug 28 I think Mana made a convincing argument by saying that every pair had 1 vote on Adel/Mana. I understand the argument that this would not be instant suicide for the other scum pair, but I find it hard to believe that a distancing strategy could remain so calm and unnoticeable at L-1 in a lover-suicide setup. Aside from that, I don’t think the evidence of Jebus’ dumb strategy, the chat dialog, Mana and Adel’s defenses point to obvscum.
If Adel/Mana are scum, how can we spot the other scum?
The order of the voters went armix 1, karne 2, caboose 3, force 4, kloud 5, empy 6. Based only on that I can see where the early voters could’ve started a safe-distancing strategy. Once momentum kicked in it’s less likely that the later voters were trying to distance, and bussing is suicide. So armix, karne, caboose and maybe force fit the bill. But kloud at position 5 looks like risky-distancing unless they felt they could change the course of this wagon or hope that others would. Empking-scum really had to be confidant that no one would hammer.
1) Armix had plenty of reasons over time to support his vote, he was real confidant and even influenced some of the votes on Adel, but I don't see where he started to show doubts. kloud comes in to make the distance even more dangerous. Leaves alot to chance.
2) Karne would not give us much reason behind his vote, so maybe that’s where he could’ve reneged on his enthusiasm for the wagon. StrangerCoug also was a voice of reason, so even though he looks pro-town he could’ve tried to prevent a distance from becoming a bus-suicide.
Citizen Karne wrote:I'm going to vote: Adel though I am happy voting 3fj, kloud, or armlx.
This quote makes me think Karne is trying to safe-distance, but from whom? Adel-scum or Armix-scum?
3) Caboose voted because of the chat dialog but not other reasons, voted in position 3, and went inactive for a while. They could add up to a reversal of opinion on his own terms, fulfilling the safe-distance strategy. But he didn’t come back voluntarily until it COULD’VE been too later. Farside didn’t show enough partiality to influence the wagon either. If he’s scum with Adel, they put a lot of faith into chance.
4) OpposedForce voted fourth. It was also his last vote so we don’t know how he would’ve reacted to Adel at L-1. Any opinion I give is WIFOM though so I won’t unless asked.
But if Adel has to be scum hypothetically, I think Karne/Coug are the other partners.
