TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[chennisden]

man ok

i want to reread the game around the point where johnny wagon gets traction, except i forgot where that was

would someone like to help an incompetent chennis

[lilith2013]

I really doubt that there were no scum on johnny’s wagon

[Auro]

an actual opinion on what you think my alignment is

Scumz [precedence to AL]. I'll be disappointed if town just goes Auro->Flopz->AL->Chennis and the game ends with a scum win.

[chennisden]

[quote="In post 4074, Auro"][/quote]
Without me in this game a Johnny lim wasn't actually very likely.

I know it sounds egotistical but I also think that if my slot went along with one of the many wagons that just popped up along the day, said wagon would've went through

[Shirou]

Please don't consider what someone with a literal 50% chance of being, in your perspective of scum!AL, the off-wagon partner, has to say.

And when the same person flips town in 50% of future universes, would you blame them for not playing the game while actively having asked no one to engage with them?

The fact that you think this is a matter of reads and not simple mathematics at this point if we consider Chennis town for leading Johnny wagon, is kinda...???

You're likely doubling down on your wincon though so I guess I understand

I guess you can try to make a case of scum!Chennis ultra-bussing Johnny from the early pages + never wavering on it in Black Flag, where even if Chennis himself survives their partner can still lose them the game.

The easier solution is also to latch onto scum!Shirou. Feel free to, you seemed to be going that way yesterday anyway.

[Auro]

Lilith - I'll try to come around on your slot today if you're town.

[Auro]

I know it sounds egotistical but I also think that if my slot went along with one of the many wagons that just popped up along the day, said wagon would've went through

On the other hand, I think that Johnny wagon would have gone through D2 or D3 at most regardless given his lack of presence.

[chennisden]

At the time I started pushing Johnny name one slot I would've been confident enough to pull off 4 mislims in a row with

[chennisden]

Without me in this game a Johnny lim wasn't actually very likely.

I know it sounds egotistical but I also think that if my slot went along with one of the many wagons that just popped up along the day, said wagon would've went through

What the heck ms

[joqiza]

Please don't consider what someone with a literal 50% chance of being, in your perspective of scum!AL, the off-wagon partner, has to say.

Engaging with very likely scum candidates is a mistake. One of the best town players in site Elli never engaged with them, and they did it for a good reason. After you're confident enough of something like you seem to be of scum!AL, therefore that scum is likely off-wagon, I don't recommend engaging much with them at all.

This is only a suggestion though I guess. I'm just not in the mood of sitting here waiting for "politely" discussion with Auro about how scum would or not buss in Black Flag to finish.

The fact Auro is defending Flopz when he was voting him yesterday should already be a red flag.

Whether or not it makes me a better player or not I have always and will continue to always engage every player at the table with an open mind, including my scumreads. I've found this is the approach that works for me.

I understand your argument I think, but I'll have to review the Auro/Flopz team for myself. That will come tomorrow. I don't really see any rush.

Good night all.

[Shirou]

I really doubt that there were no scum on johnny’s wagon

Even if there was scum in the wagon, I do believe that in your pov it would be likely Mena or AL?

Since Mena / AL aren't likely partners together, one scum at least should still be off-wagon Auro/Flopz.

I guess you could count Math, but I don't think Johnny/DK is SvS at the moment.

[lilith2013]

an actual opinion on what you think my alignment is

Scumz [precedence to AL]. I'll be disappointed if town just goes Auro->Flopz->AL->Chennis and the game ends with a scum win.

please provide reasons.

[Auro]

The fact that you think this is a matter of reads and not simple mathematics at this point if we consider Chennis town for leading Johnny wagon, is kinda...???

but if we are mistaken about AL by any chance, we lose our way to auto town win as I detailed early.

Assuming your assumption about AL is that he's scum, my "simple mathematical" argument is that P(town!AL) > P(what you think town!AL is).

[chennisden]

I know it sounds egotistical but I also think that if my slot went along with one of the many wagons that just popped up along the day, said wagon would've went through

On the other hand, I think that Johnny wagon would have gone through D2 or D3 at most regardless given his lack of presence.

Maybe. But I think I'm on the mark here, along with a good portion of the rest of the game, and I don't think I'd be on the mark if said D2/D3 wagon had to go through.

[lilith2013]

I really doubt that there were no scum on johnny’s wagon

Even if there was scum in the wagon, I do believe that in your pov it would be likely Mena or AL?

Since Mena / AL aren't likely partners together, one scum at least should still be off-wagon Auro/Flopz.

I guess you could count Math, but I don't think Johnny/DK is SvS at the moment.

sure - out of the two I probably prefer auro, although I haven’t really parsed what the reasoning on flopz has been over the last few pages

[chennisden]

Sorry Shirou but I think I'm going to be a heel in the mud here even though I think Auro/Flopz nearly always wins the game, mostly because my ego would never recover if I was wrong

[chennisden]

I'd like to reread the game before Johnny wagon gained traction and see how people positioned themselves around it and me.

[Auro]

please provide reasons.

Like you, I also believe there was scum on the wagon. Your comfort with limming Johnny seems odd to me given you needed more time to get into it, you seemed more focused on townblock talk, and there was missing engagement with a lot of people - I'm used to seeing you go a lot more aggressively at everyone in a very sharply focused manner and I don't feel like I've seen that.

[lilith2013]

your comfort with killing Johnny and ending the day I find suspect.

??? because I said I was getting apathetic?? you think I lied in order to push the wagon through and gain towncred I didn’t need?

[lilith2013]

w o r k

[Auro]

I also think that if you were suspect of me but couldn't articulate reasons that would be a very thing, wouldn't you want to place a large amount of focus on that?

[lilith2013]

what do you mean by “more focused on townbloc talk”

[Shirou]

Sorry Shirou but I think I'm going to be a heel in the mud here even though I think Auro/Flopz nearly always wins the game, mostly because my ego would never recover if I was wrong

Do you mean you'll engage with them?

I'm fine with it but this is like, opening the door to scum victory when even if for some miracle Flopz/Auro are both town, we still have 2 elims left and a solid mechanical play I described

It's like, beyond suboptimal in my opinion to engage them because if I was scum in their shoes, I would rejoice anyone trying to interact with me, because it gives me a chance to disturb the collective thought process with constant bullshit, parroting, strawman, misrepping, derailing, etc.

[chennisden]

auro i would like your reads right now

it doesn't have to be on everyone if there's people you just dont have an opinion on rn, but i'd like reads + a little bit of explanation rn

[Auro]

??? because I said I was getting apathetic?? you think I lied in order to push the wagon through and gain towncred I didn’t need?

I don't think you lied to get a wagon through! I just find your positioning around Johnny incongruent with your lack of scumhunting-investment, with more excitement / intent to push through than one would with simple apathy.

You'll need the towncred in lim-lo!