TM 2021 - Black Flag Nightless

[MathBlade]

That’s how I normally hide as scum.

No way math could be scum, who is his partner?

Requiring a solve when we only need one to win is silly.

[chennisden]

i also think this day is mostly gonna be worthless for reading anyone and we should be focusing on d1, because while johnny didnt post a lot i still do think he probably spewed p hard

[Auro]

Who exactly is Lilith partner anyway?

And that is what I'll be hunting for today *insert smile emoji*

[Auro]

Requiring a solve when we only need one to win is silly.

Hey, I need the style points.

[lilith2013]

That’s how I normally hide as scum.

No way math could be scum, who is his partner?

Requiring a solve when we only need one to win is silly.

we’re not requiring a solve, auro’s arguments just make 0 sense

[Shirou]

* the third one is my paranoid tinfoil and is why I'm not willing to entertain your proposal to rush things.

I'm offering myself and you think this can have negative connotation.

I expected this from your slot, so I'm not surprised, but I can't help but shake my head.

[lilith2013]

Who exactly is Lilith partner anyway?

And that is what I'll be hunting for today *insert smile emoji*

didn’t you imply you already had a partner for me

[Auro]

didn’t you imply you already had a partner for me

I have a hypothesis and I'm waiting to see what happens.

[Auro]

You can't convince me that it's a good idea for any scum, 4 miselims away from victory, to suggest a BoP unless they don't plan to actually flip the person that day, as I described what scum!me would do in this scenario.

If this was a normal game sure, but it's Black Flag and we only need one other scum elim. This isn't the place for scum to offer BoP. I don't get your suspicious on me ______.

This is what Shirou would probably say to anyone following up on the deal later regardless of alignment

[Shirou]

I would never have made this proposition if not for AL / Mena slots

I'm not sure I said so in the thread, I probably did, but they were the ones I expected to convince.

I knew this would be the exact reaction from Math / Joqi.

If any of AL / Mena disagrees with my plan, I'll simply back down on "Auro townflip = Me self-voting tomorrow". Bear this in mind. I'm not gonna keep trying to convince people on a BoP.

[lilith2013]

ah yes I think this is an appropriate time for this

[MathBlade]

That’s how I normally hide as scum.

No way math could be scum, who is his partner?

Requiring a solve when we only need one to win is silly.

we’re not requiring a solve, auro’s arguments just make 0 sense

Wouldn’t that make Auro town though? I mean if he was scum and told something didn’t make sense he’d swap it right?

[Auro]

Lilith understands my push on her - she's just popping into the thread to discredit it and rush an elim on me before I get it into everyone's heads to suspect her after my flip.

[lilith2013]

His reasoning makes no sense if he’s town

I’ll take the liberty of quoting myself for a TLDR of how I feel about auro

Spoiler:

again, it matters to me. I don't think your reasons for scumreading me are real; I think your intentions towards my slot since the beginning of D1 have been mostly to try to prevent me from being townread; I think your argument against shirou's proposed plan is distorted because you are trying to argue that the plan is contingent on infinity being scum and voicing your disagreement of it, but his alignment just does not matter because he's not on the table, and that if you were actually scumreading me you would be trying to convince others why this plan will not work and the reason would be because

I

am scum, and not that infinity

isn't

; I think what you're trying to argue is so mismatched to what shirou is actually saying because you're scum; and you seem more interested in trying to put me on the table for elimination in future days than actually discussing whether the plan will work.

if we go back to D1, I think it's suspicious that you would try to prevent townreads on me at multiple points without saying that you think I'm scummy, or without a qualification like "well the method of reading her isn't really valid but I think she's town anyway," which makes me think that the sole or primary purpose of you bringing up those things was to discredit and prevent me from being townread, not to make sure that I was being sorted correctly. This is what I mean by "you haven't expressed your own read at me while you were doing it."

This is a bit of a tertiary point but I’ve felt all game that your posts have been like, “surface level towny” but I think I struggle to really see the genuine thoughts behind them. I’ve held off on mentioning this because I haven’t had the chance to compile a set of posts that I think demonstrates my feelings, but I already vaguely referenced this as a reason that I thought you had a decent chance of flipping scum.

If you think AL is town and I’m the only objectionable player in the current bloc in shirou’s plan, I don’t think it actually even matters, because you wouldn’t need to eliminate scum!me to win if you’re able to find my partner. So: who’s my partner, auro?

[MathBlade]

His reasoning makes no sense if he’s town

I’ll take the liberty of quoting myself for a TLDR of how I feel about auro

Spoiler:

again, it matters to me. I don't think your reasons for scumreading me are real; I think your intentions towards my slot since the beginning of D1 have been mostly to try to prevent me from being townread; I think your argument against shirou's proposed plan is distorted because you are trying to argue that the plan is contingent on infinity being scum and voicing your disagreement of it, but his alignment just does not matter because he's not on the table, and that if you were actually scumreading me you would be trying to convince others why this plan will not work and the reason would be because

I

am scum, and not that infinity

isn't

; I think what you're trying to argue is so mismatched to what shirou is actually saying because you're scum; and you seem more interested in trying to put me on the table for elimination in future days than actually discussing whether the plan will work.

if we go back to D1, I think it's suspicious that you would try to prevent townreads on me at multiple points without saying that you think I'm scummy, or without a qualification like "well the method of reading her isn't really valid but I think she's town anyway," which makes me think that the sole or primary purpose of you bringing up those things was to discredit and prevent me from being townread, not to make sure that I was being sorted correctly. This is what I mean by "you haven't expressed your own read at me while you were doing it."

This is a bit of a tertiary point but I’ve felt all game that your posts have been like, “surface level towny” but I think I struggle to really see the genuine thoughts behind them. I’ve held off on mentioning this because I haven’t had the chance to compile a set of posts that I think demonstrates my feelings, but I already vaguely referenced this as a reason that I thought you had a decent chance of flipping scum.

If you think AL is town and I’m the only objectionable player in the current bloc in shirou’s plan, I don’t think it actually even matters, because you wouldn’t need to eliminate scum!me to win if you’re able to find my partner. So: who’s my partner, auro?

Speaking as a moonlogicker and no I didn’t read all that, that would make him town. If something doesn’t make sense for town!Auro it likely doesn’t make sense for scum!Auro either which means it’s likely town!Auro

[Shirou]

That’s how I normally hide as scum.

No way math could be scum, who is his partner?

Requiring a solve when we only need one to win is silly.

It's precisely because you only need one scum to win that you entertain multiple solves here

if you think X/Y team is possible, and so is Z/Y, you go for player Y here for higher odds of victory.

entertaining multiple teams and what are the keystone slots is the correct play in this gamestate rather than just sticking your guns to an one-sided read.

[MathBlade]

Scum have to avoid being elimmed.

If you’re able and wanting to elim someone immediately it’s probably TWTBAW

[lilith2013]

Lilith understands my push on her - she's just popping into the thread to discredit it and rush an elim on me before I get it into everyone's heads to suspect her after my flip.

I’ve said it already and I’ll say it again - I actually don’t understand your push on me.

Your reasoning for thinking I’m scum-motivated makes no sense
Your reasoning for trying to push me over whoever you think my partner is makes no sense unless my partner is even more unkillable than I am
If you think I’m more killable than my partner, then you should be arguing against shirou’s plan because there would be multiple scum in the bloc
Regardless, if you believe I’m scum you should be arguing against shirou’s plan, and you should be arguing that it won’t work because I’m scum, not because of infinity’s alignment

I think town!auro is reasonable and I don’t think any of the above is reasonable. I think your read on me is fake.

[MathBlade]

That’s how I normally hide as scum.

No way math could be scum, who is his partner?

Requiring a solve when we only need one to win is silly.

It's precisely because you only need one scum to win that you entertain multiple solves here

if you think X/Y team is possible, and so is Z/Y, you go for player Y here for higher odds of victory.

entertaining multiple teams and what are the keystone slots is the correct play in this gamestate rather than just sticking your guns to an one-sided read.

But it’s not about odds of dice it’s about what’s right.

If you are 75% sure X is scum even if no partner is known and 60% sure of any combination still do the 75% mafia much as I love math is not always an odds game

[lilith2013]

that should about sum it up. I feel like I’m just repeating myself at this point but auro doesn’t seem to want to listen because he’s already dEcIdEd LiLiTh Is ScUm

[lilith2013]

she's just popping into the thread to discredit it

Careful, I might call you out for plagiarizing the words I used to describe you

[Shirou]

that should about sum it up. I feel like I’m just repeating myself at this point but auro doesn’t seem to want to listen because he’s already dEcIdEd LiLiTh Is ScUm

He already decided Lilith is scum

He already decided Flopz is town

He already decided he can't neither town read me or scum read me because it messes with his position

He's not going to make any progress on his reads, I'm very confident on this statement.

If he does now that I'm saying, it's not gonna be something relevant.

[Auro]

Your reasoning for thinking I’m scum-motivated makes no sense
Your reasoning for trying to push me over whoever you think my partner is makes no sense unless my partner is even more unkillable than I am
If you think I’m more killable than my partner, then you should be arguing against shirou’s plan because there would be multiple scum in the bloc

Incorrect. Killability only becomes an important factor given similar confidence in remaining scum.
My read on you is very confident, and my hypothesis for your partner is unconfident and has to be tested.
"oh fine, I guess town's townreading my confident scumread, let me just partner hunt and convince town to lim THEM" is weak play

[Auro]

He already decided Flopz is town

I am assuming Flopz to be the lim after me. If he's scum, then great, I win, and that's a useless scenario to think about.

[Auro]

Joqiza, I think you'd be able to understand what I'm trying to say despite poor articulation and I'd implore you to study her meta if you get the time later in the game. I will, however, make a better attempt at explaining it too.