TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[Hopkirk]

hopkirk this game is stressful lol idk what to do

sometimes when i'm having trouble sorting people i head over to the speakeasy and read through their post history in stuff like relationships, politics, sad and so on. it can be pretty useful sometimes tbh, plus if you reach the point where you're doing that then the weirdness of the fact you're doing that really takes away from some of the more general stress

just let go. let the memes into you

[Hopkirk]

oh shit that was a pagetop, now i look like a weirdo

[Hopkirk]

don't try and tell me Elli didn't do the same think though

[Hopkirk]

but obviously don't stress out too much about the game. if you don't solve it right now you'll only get mocked, blamed for the loss, and treated with mild disdain by half of the playerlist for the rest of your life

[innocentvillager]

uh, how's this meant to be read? did you switch on ceph between the two posts?

you're right, my wording is confusing, it didn't really change between the posts

i don't like, independently townlean Cephrir based on my own reasoning/vibes, the mindmelding thing was like occasional and fine and maybe slightly +town but that's whatever

my main point is, if i have to adjust my probability of him being scum, it would be absurd to ignore the fact that one of my TRs, dannflor, is strongly townreading him

so townleaning by proxy for dannflor i guess. maybe there's a term for that kind of townlean

[innocentvillager]

but obviously don't stress out too much about the game. if you don't solve it right now you'll only get mocked, blamed for the loss, and treated with mild disdain by half of the playerlist for the rest of your life

hopkirk this game is stressful lol idk what to do

sometimes when i'm having trouble sorting people i head over to the speakeasy and read through their post history in stuff like relationships, politics, sad and so on. it can be pretty useful sometimes tbh, plus if you reach the point where you're doing that then the weirdness of the fact you're doing that really takes away from some of the more general stress

just let go. let the memes into you

that is true, you are all human beings too who don't only play mafia, i do forget that sometimes

thanks hopkirk <3

[Hopkirk]

what's your rough %s on Dann scum and town!dann being right on the read and Dann's actual confident on it come out at. i don't need a full Bayesian calc, but that feels like a big TR on Dann and is Dann that certain on Ceph?

i don't really get the first of the two posts based on that, are you basically saying you don't want to TR him but he probably is town in the second?

[DrippingGoofball]

i kind of want to lol!switch from dgb to lld

Do it.

I'm town and you know it. LLD is not.

• Why LLD was brought up to within claiming range, and instead of demanding a claim, some players started to labor to find
  any
  alternate wagon, day after day after day?
  
• Why some players who barely read LLD as town are currently willing to hop on any last minute shitwagon that saves LLD?
  
• Right now deadline apathy, "whateverism," caseless vibing attempts, nebulous and confused reads from another 100 pages of Day One are leading us astray from what? The LLD wagon of course.
  
• We need to shed light on all this.

[innocentvillager]

agar's vibes are terrible. if you forgot i was here then you probably haven't seen how bad agar's vibes are because they're terrible in relation to how he's posting about me. can you take a look and tell me what you think of his push?

as a general rule i tend to find tunneling more NAI/town!indicative? he was being pedantic about the word "counterwagon" which I don't really understand or agree with (well, maybe because i don't really understand it) but i don't think is like, a particularly persuasive thing to be pushing as a scum agenda? It's possible that it's just noise to pretend like he cares about something but, idk, super opinionated and confident/tunnelly AGar feels like a town!AGar that I have previously scumread in the past

those were my gut impressions on his posting from your 1v1

[Hopkirk]

but obviously don't stress out too much about the game. if you don't solve it right now you'll only get mocked, blamed for the loss, and treated with mild disdain by half of the playerlist for the rest of your life

hopkirk this game is stressful lol idk what to do

sometimes when i'm having trouble sorting people i head over to the speakeasy and read through their post history in stuff like relationships, politics, sad and so on. it can be pretty useful sometimes tbh, plus if you reach the point where you're doing that then the weirdness of the fact you're doing that really takes away from some of the more general stress

just let go. let the memes into you

that is true, you are all human beings too who don't only play mafia, i do forget that sometimes

thanks hopkirk <3

a lot of the time people forget that we're all just people here, mostly playing mafia either because we enjoy it or for masochistic purposes. it's important to remember this when you're being wagoned. you know how they say you should tell you kidnapper stuff about you to build a raport/so they see you as a real person? it probably works in mafia too

here's a helpful link: https://www.wrc.noaa.gov/wrso/security_guide/kidnap.htm

i'm hopkirk, and i'm town

[DrippingGoofball]

i asked @DGB for what SirCakez thinks about AGar

I asked yesterday but then we started to talk about Ramcius' game and he forgot. I am asking again now on discord. He is online.

Having said that, you really think that after all the discussions we had today, AGar is the way to go? Don't forget we might gain information from night actions tomorrow morning. We need a yeet that will help guide these actions.

[Hopkirk]

agar's vibes are terrible. if you forgot i was here then you probably haven't seen how bad agar's vibes are because they're terrible in relation to how he's posting about me. can you take a look and tell me what you think of his push?

as a general rule i tend to find tunneling more NAI/town!indicative? he was being pedantic about the word "counterwagon" which I don't really understand or agree with (well, maybe because i don't really understand it) but i don't think is like, a particularly persuasive thing to be pushing as a scum agenda? It's possible that it's just noise to pretend like he cares about something but, idk, super opinionated and confident/tunnelly AGar feels like a town!AGar that I have previously scumread in the past

those were my gut impressions on his posting from your 1v1

he was pushing other equally bad stuff before that
i feel like he was either not expecting pushback, or he thought i was an easy target to shade (or he was just doing it to shade me)
it feels like something he's 'pushing' that i don't really buy the town motivation behind because the push is objectively garbage, everyone who's commented (basically just Dunn/you/me) agrees it's bad, but only i seem to think it's scum indicative? bad pushes like that where there isn't a solid town mindset behind them come from scum more than town. i'm not convinced he buys his own arguments, but he's hard sticking to them in a way that feels floundering despite it not actually drawing attention

willing to hop on any last minute shitwagon

it always makes me sad when people use the word 'hop' in this kind of context

[DrippingGoofball]

IV, SirCakez says you're town for asking the question, for starters.

[Cephrir]

Okay well. This town is determined to elim LLD for her personality. I don't know what she is, I guess I'm leaning town, but clearly I can't stop you since I've tried everything and yall just will not fucking let it go.

LLD I think you should claim before it becomes too late to switch. They will not listen.

[DrippingGoofball]

it always makes me sad when people use the word 'hop' in this kind of context

???

[Cephrir]

For all the talk of resistance, the dgb wagon just generated like 3 hard defenses.

[innocentvillager]

what's your rough %s on Dann scum and town!dann being right on the read and Dann's actual confident on it come out at. i don't need a full Bayesian calc, but that feels like a big TR on Dann and is Dann that certain on Ceph?

i don't really get the first of the two posts based on that, are you basically saying you don't want to TR him but he probably is town in the second?

basal scum probability = 23.5%

dannflor scum probability = ~15%

town!dannflor chance of reading cephrir incorrectly as town = ~12%
chance cephrir is town if scum!dannflor = ~50% (no idea what this number should be ??)

P(C scum) = P(D scum) * P(C scum | D scum) + P(D town) * P(C scum | D town)
=15% * 50% + 85% * 12% = 17.7%

[DrippingGoofball]

Okay well. This town is determined to elim LLD for her personality.

That's nobody.

I <3 LLD,

I love playing with LLD. If I was making voting decisions based on personality, I wouldn't be voting her.

[DrippingGoofball]

SirCakez says about AGar that he is a lot more passionate in this game them in legends, he is engaged, he is not coasting. On iso, SirCakez leans town. Not locktown, but lean town as he looks better here than in legends.

[Hopkirk]

Okay well. This town is determined to elim LLD for her personality. I don't know what she is, I guess I'm leaning town, but clearly I can't stop you since I've tried everything and yall just will not fucking let it go.

LLD I think you should claim before it becomes too late to switch. They will not listen.

except what? who's trying to lethal her for personality?
how much are you leaning town there? why are you trying so much to stop it?

it always makes me sad when people use the word 'hop' in this kind of context

???

a lot of people shorten my name to hop, so when people use 'hop' in stuff like 'hop on a wagon' implying that the action is simple/bad/less good than another way to get on a wagon it always makes me feel kinda bad

we shouldn't let this game control our lives, now i'm off to shop for some food today instead of tomorrow because deadline is tomorrow

[innocentvillager]

SirCakez says about AGar that he is a lot more passionate in this game them in legends, he is engaged, he is not coasting. On iso, SirCakez leans town. Not locktown, but lean town as he looks better here than in legends.

the main case on AGar there, as i understand it, was too much fluffposting. I don't get the same vibe here, especially AGar's later posting. does he agree with that? i was not in that game so i don't really have a great sense apart from a hindsight biased skim.

[Cephrir]

Okay well. This town is determined to elim LLD for her personality.

That's nobody.

I <3 LLD,

I love playing with LLD. If I was making voting decisions based on personality, I wouldn't be voting her.

No one has made a case on her that I feel is AI for her. So.

[Cephrir]

how much are you leaning town there? why are you trying so much to stop it?

Somewhat.

I've been very clear that I think her opinion is valuable and I'd like to have it around later. I'll admit that I haven't agreed with her pushes this game, yet. If anything that makes me think she's town more. Shrug.

[innocentvillager]

like, fmpov, AGar is very explicitly engaging with the game, having hard stances, actively pushing people he thinks are scum and little "nitpicky things" like the word "counterwagon" (which, could be a distraction)

which was quite differently from Cakez's case on AGar in that game. But also, AGar literally just 100% gave up in scum PT and self-hammered that moment he saw that case. So he's clearly aware that it's a deficiency

[DrippingGoofball]

a lot of people shorten my name to hop, so when people use 'hop' in stuff like 'hop on a wagon' implying that the action is simple/bad/less good than another way to get on a wagon it always makes me feel kinda bad

Haha it didn't occur to me. Henceforth I shall use "prance," "leap," and "gambol."