Mini 645 - Innocence Falls (Game Over)

[Simenon]

I think both should claim right about now. If you think it would help, certainly I'll switch, but I'm not sure I should right now.

[nureins]

The first part of my post is a minor thing, and it is mostly directed to Ythill.
The second part is important to all and my general thought.

first part

His vote currently has a lack of town support...but he can't really do a natural vote change because he's dug his feet in on me.

Pacman, meanwhile, has been floating around. He had no aggresively pursued target.

I simplified excessively your quotes consciously. My objective is not to show others that you are wrong, but you to read them from another perspective, ok ?

I could read these words very easily as:

- Sirdan is obsessed with you due to your aggressive attack, and if you have not so many votes it is only due to the compromise issue...ppl moved forced by the situation.

- Pacman is not scumhunting and tries to fly down...

For the few lynching situations I have lived, I know it is complicated to accept the fact that you have a "solid case" and part of the town is not considering you seriously...especially because you have worked a lot.

second part
Having said so, I agree with the case, I agree with most of the issues that you launched in your last post, and I also would like some extra pressure on Sirdan. If I understand well, it is Goat and Pacman who could put this extra pressure. I dont see why Sim (he already has answered)...many of us have already exposed that we might change/lynch before the deadline. Let people mantain their prefered votes as much as possible...pacman is not gonna vote himself, so he can vote sirdan. And Goat said some time ago that Sirdan was a minor suspect, while pacman was townish. And his vote is on you and IMO, quite useless right now.

[nureins]

I think both should claim right about now. If you think it would help, certainly I'll switch, but I'm not sure I should right now.

I would prefer only one claiming (at first). Who is that person has to be determined by how suspicious players found Sirdan/pacman. Right now, I guess that Goat and nhat have something to say about that, since all the players voting on sirdan or pacman seem to have solid opinions...

Of course, if someone has doubts on his/her target and wants to change, pressure seems to be adequate now as we are running out of time...

[Ythill]

Sirdan is obsessed with you due to your aggressive attack, and if you have not so many votes it is only due to the compromise issue...

It doesn't matter why there is a lack of support. My statement was about sirdan's dilemma and was not meant to be a defense of me.

Pacman is not scumhunting and tries to fly down...

Which is a valid point against pacman. However, my point was that this aspect of his play has been consistent even when it would have suited scum to abandon it and even when doing so would have been safe.

I think both should claim right about now.

It's optimal for town to get one claim at a time because we might not need the second one and it may needlessly endanger our power roles. However, I do not feel that it is a

huge

disadvantage to get both claims at once. Not enough to get in a distracting argument over it anyway...

The real question is, will both (or either) of our candidates actually claim @ L-3? And can we reasonably read anything into their refusal if they choose not to?

[Darox]

Dear Ythill,

Why are you defending pacman with WIFOM?

Yours sincerely,
Darox.

[nureins]

Darox
please read post 716. Please write a similar post for sirdan, we need discussion now.
Thanks.

[Darox]

Sirdan and all the people he replaced are not actually scummy, they are just newb town.

This what you were looking for?

I already explained why I felt Ythill's defense of pacman was insufficient.

[Simenon]

It's optimal for town to get one claim at a time because we might not need the second one and it may needlessly endanger our power roles. However, I do not feel that it is a huge disadvantage to get both claims at once. Not enough to get in a distracting argument over it anyway...

Obviously one will claim before the other. I'm not suggesting anything in unison.

The real question is, will both (or either) of our candidates actually claim @ L-3? And can we reasonably read anything into their refusal if they choose not to?

I'm predicting that if one does claim and the other doesn't, we'll finish off the latter. It's a huge advantage to claim at this point.

[Ythill]

Dear Ythill,

Why are you defending pacman with WIFOM?

Because WIFOM only invalidates an argument if the possibilities are equal, which they are not.

Why are you trolling rather than providing counterpoints?

[Darox]

Since when?

In Game Theory, a WIFOM game is a weighted, head-to-head guessing game with no dominant strategy for either side. It occurs when, in an otherwise random guessing game, one of the choices carries an inherent advantage or drawback.

[pacman281292]

Sirdan and all the people he replaced are not actually scummy, they are just newb town.

This what you were looking for?

I already explained why I felt Ythill's defense of pacman was insufficient.

uh? kuribo was the one who DID. Not you. If you did, where did you do it?

oh guy... I am really willing to put my vote back, but it might be extremely useless given the situation.

hmm...

[Ythill]

@Darox: You mistake what I mean by equal. The benefit of impressions gained by ignoring the "inherent advantage or drawback" must be at least equal to the benefit of the advantage itself.

Example: I drop a $20 on the ground and a guy points it out to me. I then state that the guy is honest. It's not invalidated by WIFOM because an unseen stranger would never have hand me the $20 just to convince me he's not a thief.

Why didn't you answer my question?

[Ythill]

uh? kuribo was the one who DID. Not you. If you did, where did you do it?

#750: "Ythill: I did read your post, but to me it just reads as you dismissing his actions as newb town, when they could easily be newb scum just as well as newb town. I think his reactions have been largely more characteristic of scum than town, and as such I think he is a good lynch for today."

I don't like his vague reasoning, but he

did

make the comment.

[nhat]

I think both should claim right about now. If you think it would help, certainly I'll switch, but I'm not sure I should right now.

I can't let this blatant role fishing slide. On the off chance that both are pro-town power roles, then that's two-for-one for scum. One would be sufficient, but two is just being greedy.

FoS - Simenon

I know it's been a long time coming, but I have the next two days off and will have a very close look at the two suspects.

[nureins]

Sirdan and all the people he replaced are not actually scummy, they are just newb town.

This what you were looking for?

It is not as relevant as Ythill's. Probably I would call it scarce or at most inappropiate given the important decision we are facing...However, I can only call it imaginary, since I cannot find when you said it.
Might you indicate me the post in which you said these words ? I am looking for repeateadly and I am unable to find it. My mistake for sure, but the only thing you said about Sirdan has been:

I can see what people are finding scummy about sirdan

[Erratus Apathos]

pacman281292: (4) Simenon, kuribo, Darox, Cass
sirdanilot: (4) nureins, Ythill, Jahudo, Ectomancer
Ythill: (2) sirdanilot, nhat
Darox: (1) Goatrevolt

Not voting: pacman281292

Goatrevolt has been prodded.

[kuribo]

I can't let this blatant role fishing slide. On the off chance that both are pro-town power roles, then that's two-for-one for scum. One would be sufficient, but two is just being greedy.

FoS - Simenon

I know it's been a long time coming, but I have the next two days off and will have a very close look at the two suspects.

Yes, let's lynch them without asking for a claim. BRILLIANT.


You better step up your posting on Day 2, nhat.

[Cass]

Yeah, after these last few pages, I find it less and less likely that Pacman is scum. I have some doubt about Sirdan, but he is low on my suspect list. ythill looks scummy too. But by far the scummiest, confirming all my earlier suspicions, is Darox.

Unvote
Vote: Darox

After his recent line of posting, I just can't believe he is town.

[sirdanilot]

3 days before the deadline, and knowing that a claim will cause a lot of discussion, I think it would be better for me to claim as soon as possible.

Ythill, chapeau. You've successfully pressured a pro-town power role into claiming. Your strategy, which has had its successes when played by a town role, works very well as scum too. And if you are in fact town (probably not), then this proves that you should find a different play style, since when you are wrong (and you will be wrong again in the future, probably even more than that you'll be right) there's no way back and it hurts the town incredibly.

I'm the doctor.

Now, I'd be absolutely delighted when someone dares to counterclaim, since that gives us Ythill's partner.

[kuribo]

3 days before the deadline, and knowing that a claim will cause a lot of discussion, I think it would be better for me to claim as soon as possible.

Ythill, chapeau. You've successfully pressured a pro-town power role into claiming. Your strategy, which has had its successes when played by a town role, works very well as scum too. And if you are in fact town (probably not), then this proves that you should find a different play style, since when you are wrong (and you will be wrong again in the future, probably even more than that you'll be right) there's no way back and it hurts the town incredibly.

I'm the doctor.

Now, I'd be absolutely delighted when someone dares to counterclaim, since that gives us Ythill's partner.

Even if it's true, your argument fails because:

A) You haven't been acting like a doctor, or even a townie, thus Ythill would have no reason for suspecting you to be a doctor.

B) Even if Ythill is scum (or town) he has absolutely no way for CERTAIN of knowing if you were a power role.

So, thus, "Ythill is scum because he outted a power role," is a ridiculous argument.

[sirdanilot]

No, Ythill is not scum because he outed a power role. Ythill is scum (I am not going to repeat why again) and he outed a power role. Stop misunderstanding my posts.

[nureins]

Ready to unvote (I am a total newbie in such a situation and want to hear some voices that I consider townie before taking a important decision).

For all of you to understand my stupid thoughts, I focused on

Now, I'd be absolutely delighted when someone dares to counterclaim, since that gives us Ythill's partner.

First, I interpreted it as a scumtell, building up a defence in case a new claim would happen. But after re-reading it, I also thought of it as an emotional rush, compatible with a newbie reacting to ythill's aggressive style.

Also Id never expect Kuribo to attack so hard to sirdan. So Im really lost. I promise to come with a more serious opinion in a day...

[kuribo]

Also Id never expect Kuribo to attack so hard to sirdan. So Im really lost. I promise to come with a more serious opinion in a day...

You call that an attack?

I'll show you an attack tomorrow, scum.

[kuribo]

No, Ythill is not scum because he outed a power role. Ythill is scum (I am not going to repeat why again) and he outed a power role. Stop misunderstanding my posts.

Okay, I see what you were saying, now. Sorry for the misconception.

[nureins]

Also Id never expect Kuribo to attack so hard to sirdan. So Im really lost. I promise to come with a more serious opinion in a day...

You call that an attack?

I'll show you an attack tomorrow, scum.

attack ?
Im not attackin you. I didnt consider the person you replaced scummy and I dont consider you either. Your attack on sirdan was strong. And if you attack him so strongly and you are "defending" him before the claim, this suggests to me that his doctor claim was a fake. So in my process of thoughts:

1. I read sirdan's words protecting himself to future claims - scummy
2. I start to accept he has an emotional rush - town (and doc)
3. The attack of someone who defends him hits me in the other direction - scummy...

As a consequence, Im totally lost. This is what i said...