Happy Face Mafia (Game Over)

[VFP]

So VFP, if you successfully ML me who would you want to be yeeted next?

You.
Then hopefully Bears or Raya are killed if its still going and the other is the lim

[Dunnstral]

So confirmed then

Samantha (at least not Mafia)
Retti
Dunn

Flea was here due to T3 but I think not confirmed now? Unless I'm wrong.

Town
Willow
Bear, I guess?
Still Flea from play alone I think

So a mis lim today makes it 6 players and 1 scum..
Another mis lim makes it 3 players and 1 scum.
(At worst)

Even if you lim Samantha, we only have 2 mis lims now so that works out to not need to.
If there's a deep wolf in the town list I just think it's Bears

Other than that I favour Drapion as scum and if wrong just hope the second kill is in me, Raya, or Bears.

@Samantha

Can your ability thing hit you or is it only other town?

Maybe

It's 3 elims vs 2 elims but one of the elims we need would be sam, and if we take that route the mafia kills all our clears. If we accelerate things a bit then mafia would only have time to kill me and retti

However, what we need to watch out for is that because sam is forced to shoot every night, it's easy for scum to manipulate the game state to where there's 4 people alive and we have to eliminate somebody

[willow1]

bear hugs does not have a mask

with that i have investigated every no mask claim except professordrapion. retti's info clears every mask claim.

i would be shocked if scum had no mask holders given 3 flipped w/ no mask. probably just professordrapion.

[willow1]

wait I'm dumb bell had a mask ignore me

[Retti]

I'l do a cursory reread but it's like 99% professor and the game ends with him

Almost feels like a waste if we vote sam today but I don't necessarily mind playing it safe

[willow1]

i'd probably go sam into drapion then worry about me/raya/vfp after

reasoning behind the bears check was that there were only two people left to check, them and drapion. drapion is getting voted regardless of the result so might as well double-check the bears claim

anyway it's 2 early 4 me so back to sleep gn all

[Retti]

Yeah I don't think jjh was bussing raya day 1 as a counter to Bell, simple enough

[willow1]

oh and gj sam u shot an unclear, proud of u and thanks 4 free extra elim, that rng coming in clutch

[willow1]

also everyone is miscounting, after we yeet sam we have 3 elims

9 players -> yeet sam
7 players -> yeet drapion
5 players -> yeet in pool
3 players -> yeet in pool

[Dunnstral]

retti's info clears every mask claim.

Right, so, if we play this safe we eventually end up at final 3 with Retti/Flea/Me dead

If we leave sam alive we potentially end up in a situation where one of Retti/Flea/Me are alive, and worse case scenario is that none of us are alive BUT sam is alive and I believe he is firmly outside of the poe so it would be at worst the same

So I believe it's better to leave sam alive at this point

[willow1]

I am 99% sure u r wrong but i will actually work through your suggestion with you at a reasonable hour of the day or let retti do it for me

[willow1]

Nope im wrong even w/ the elim count I'm pretty sure leaving sam is optimal and Dunn is right
will post work in morning when i doublecheck

[willow1]

essentially we get three free choice day elims either way, but reduce the scum NKs to only two by leaving sam alive. this means Sam shoots 2 clears and we get the same scenario of 3 way no clears after 2 elims (worst case and identical to vote Sam plan), she shoots 1 clear/1 unclear and we get two elims plus a final 3 way w/ clear (better), or she shoots two unclears and we get mech autowin (best)

very counterintuitive and interesting result

[willow1]

gj dunn willow big dumb

[Raya36]

So confirmed then

Samantha (at least not Mafia)
Retti
Dunn

Flea was here due to T3 but I think not confirmed now? Unless I'm wrong.

Town
Willow
Bear, I guess?
Still Flea from play alone I think

So a mis lim today makes it 6 players and 1 scum..
Another mis lim makes it 3 players and 1 scum.
(At worst)

Even if you lim Samantha, we only have 2 mis lims now so that works out to not need to.
If there's a deep wolf in the town list I just think it's Bears

Other than that I favour Drapion as scum and if wrong just hope the second kill is in me, Raya, or Bears.

@Samantha

Can your ability thing hit you or is it only other town?

I townread every single person in this game except professor. Which is probably also a sign I need to reevaluate a bit. If I'm wrong I would probably go VFP or unclear bears and go there because that first elim could have been a bus

I think we do need to elim sam first though. We could just hope the day ends on professor but I'd rather go the safer route just in case.
VOTE: sam

[willow1]

uhhh there is scum counterplay with scum shooting sam tonight, exact result depends on whether or not her big still goes through but I still think the worst case scenario is 2 elims plus 4 way w/ a clear which matches the expected result of yeet sam plan

fuck it guess I didn't need to go back to bed anyway

[willow1]

raya it's counterintuitive but i just worked through it and i'm pretty sure Dunn is right and leaving sam alive is mechanically equal or better no matter who she targets or who scum targets, feel free to work through it b/c chance of me committing 4am error was high

[Dunnstral]

uhhh there is scum counterplay with scum shooting sam tonight, exact result depends on whether or not her big still goes through but I still think the worst case scenario is 2 elims plus 4 way w/ a clear which matches the expected result of yeet sam plan

fuck it guess I didn't need to go back to bed anyway

Then they're not shooting one of me/retti/raya

So even though it goes down to 4, it's still not a good solution

It's a gamble

[Dunnstral]

and by raya I mean, flea

[Dunnstral]

even if say, sam shoots me and mafia shoot sam, we still end up with at least one of retti/flea in the 4p limlo, so it seems we at least go even

[samantha97]

one thing about bears is that noraa said she was away during a period of time that nancy seemed to suggest she was present & just keeping to their PT

that's why I asked noraa how long she'd been away (didn't get a response)

anyway you should demand more noraa posts regardless

[samantha97]

and there's no reasonwhy mafia would kill me, though the only reason I'm here now is to get us into odds?

[samantha97]

thought*

[willow1]

yes, it is even in the absolute worst case scenario (3 elims, last 4 way w/ clear) identical to the plan with yeet sam which is very fixed in outcome (3 elims, last in 3 way no clear)

[willow1]

and there's no reasonwhy mafia would kill me, though the only reason I'm here now is to get us into odds?

it is actually optimal to kill you tonight, the exact result depends on your kill but it would take a lot to explain

I highly recommend grabbing paper and working through the worst case scenarios on your own