Open 811 - Lovers and Losers (New Game+) [Game Over]


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Post Post #1200 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 3:58 am

Post by yessiree »

VC 2.1

With 8 votes, it takes 5 to eliminate.


LlamaFluff (2)
- Anastasia, Bambi Jay

Note voting - T-Bone, LlamaFluff, Kerset, RationalMadman, Bingle, VFP

Day 2 ends in (expired on 2021-06-02 16:00:00)
Last edited by yessiree on Tue May 25, 2021 3:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #1201 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 4:05 am

Post by VFP »

In post 1199, Kerset wrote:I can't figure out what was even the counterwagon here. Bambi got votes after SS did, so scum didn't push SS to save her. Earlier Ana was pushed by emotional trio (bone, vfp, bambi) but they also ended up on SS.
I really don't understand the swap over either.
I don't understand the emotional Trio comment on a side note?
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Post Post #1202 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 4:09 am

Post by Bambi Jay »

If anything the guys getting emotional are me Llama Ana and Ration. Mostly because of the latter.
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Post Post #1203 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 4:12 am

Post by T-Bone »

In post 1177, VFP wrote:I feel like this diverted because I was right in the lovers, but for the wrong reasons.

If Bambi is scum there's bussing.
On the spot choice in lovers would be RM/Ana but I feel that liming VT there only favours scum as a whole.

@T-Bone
how much do you favour Bambi town over Llama here? Is Bambi just set town in your eyes?
I will go over some things on both after work for reasons either are scum but I'll follow.

The only way I see Bingle as scum here is if we were a threat to not be the lim on an RM/Ana town flip. I think in that situation it favours me and you as a lim over Bingle and Kerset so it doesn't add up.
My gut is that Bambi is the townie still. Here's why, and this gives a little insight why I felt comfortable enough to toss around the words 'confirmed town' to me.

I don't think Bambi can be partners with either other pair, and you and I obviously know we're town. Bambi spent a majority of the day with me on Kerset. For all intents and purposes, for most of the day, that looked like where we were gonna go with the elimination. The theory that 'oh this set-up is great for scum to bus' doesn't make sense when we literally couldn't eliminate one of the scum pairs, only for Llama to basically flip it to S_S.

Now because it looked like for most of the day we were gonna be eliminating Kerset, sure you can say 'well, Bambi can be scum with Ana/RM'. What made me start thinking confirmed townie to me was this. I don't think scum!bambi could predict that you would come in and change the read to Ana/RM, and that I would follow suit. That came out of nowhere from a game perspective. If she is scum pocketing me because I am making the incorrect read...that sets me up as the Day 2 lim. Instead you flipped us to Ana/RM and Bambi followed without hesitation. Again, we were in a gamestate where that was the elimination up until literally hours before deadline. The only knock you can maybe glean here is that Bambi flipped to S_S before me. But, either scum!Bambi brought scum!Kerset dangerously close to elimination, or then decided to bring scum!Ana dangerously close to elimination. All scum!Bambi has to do is get the wrong pair eliminated on Day 1, and then turn on us Day 2 and game over she wins. So, no, I don't think her actions overall look like the actions of scum.

I think Llama essentially flipping the game away from perhaps the correct elimination to an incorrect one is more suspect. The only thing that gives me pause is that Llama puts themselves at risk to be the Day 2 lim. But it's also the type of thing I'd do as solo scum I think, as Day 3 is MyLo if we get there, and scum lovers have a slightly better EV I think than solo scum in that situation.

So for me I have two minds. Is Bambi pocketing me, or is Llama making the play I think I'd make as scum in his position?
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Post Post #1204 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 4:14 am

Post by T-Bone »

Also I was wrong on SS, I'm not so arrogant that I wouldn't reconsider my read on the two players in question entirely. It's something we'll have to work through over these next few days, VFP.
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Post Post #1205 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 4:25 am

Post by T-Bone »

Spoiler: image
Image


Two hours between these VCs. If nothing changes in 1.31, Ana/RM still get eliminated.

I switched, because Bambi switched.
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Post Post #1206 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 4:37 am

Post by Bambi Jay »

In post 1094, Bambi Jay wrote:Oh Tbone ain't voting Smart yet? Welp... I can still switch later when I'm not at work if something changes.
Ironically it mostly happened because I saw a post earlier during the Ration monologue I thought got posted by Tbone saying he was switching to Smart. Turns out it was a Llama post and I didn't unvote yet because I still didn't read everything since I was at work and still thought it was something those 2 wanted. That's why I asked those questions to Tbone.

Looking at it it was me/Tbone/VFP who did the most because I swapped but was gonna swap back... Then Llama started making sense to me and I guess we got Smart instead.

The outlier is mostly the fact the other 2 on the Wagon is Bingle and Llama... Well clearly Bingle could've just followed Ration on me if he scumread me enough but he was also one of the first on Smart.

Kerset clearly wanted me gone. Ration clearly wanted me gone. Ana wanted Llama gone. Bingle wanted Smart gone. The other Lovers are divided and that's what's making this weird.
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Post Post #1207 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 4:39 am

Post by Kerset »

In post 1201, VFP wrote:
In post 1199, Kerset wrote:I can't figure out what was even the counterwagon here. Bambi got votes after SS did, so scum didn't push SS to save her. Earlier Ana was pushed by emotional trio (bone, vfp, bambi) but they also ended up on SS.
I really don't understand the swap over either.
I don't understand the emotional Trio comment on a side note?
Ana doesn't care about RM reads
Bingle doesn't care about my reads
RM doesn't care about Ana reads
I don't care about Bingle reads
SS didn't care about making any reads
Llama thinks independently

and then there is your trio, which follows each other bc friendship is magic
giv me pagetop :(
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Post Post #1208 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 4:46 am

Post by Kerset »

VFP how familiar are you with llama?
giv me pagetop :(
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Post Post #1209 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 4:54 am

Post by VFP »

In post 1207, Kerset wrote:Ana doesn't care about RM reads
Bingle doesn't care about my reads
RM doesn't care about Ana reads
I don't care about Bingle reads
SS didn't care about making any reads
Llama thinks independently

and then there is your trio, which follows each other bc friendship is magic
It's cute that you don't understand what the word emotional means.
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Post Post #1210 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 4:54 am

Post by VFP »

In post 1208, Kerset wrote:VFP how familiar are you with llama?
I have no experience with Llama scum.
I pointed this out already.
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Post Post #1211 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 4:56 am

Post by Kerset »

but do you respect him as a player like ana?
giv me pagetop :(
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Post Post #1212 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 5:01 am

Post by VFP »

In post 1204, T-Bone wrote:Also I was wrong on SS, I'm not so arrogant that I wouldn't reconsider my read on the two players in question entirely. It's something we'll have to work through over these next few days, VFP.
In fairness I was wrong there too.
My main reasons to Swapping were because of your vote, SS most likely being scum, and I wasn't sure if I'd be on at all in the six hours.

So with your Bambi read, I'm happy with it. There was something Kersel said that I was thinking over but I'll find and post it once I'm free.
The thing with Llama was the vote onto Ana when no votes were there.
Once I changed my view and voted Llama unvotes (may have been after your vote too, I need to read and clarify).
Then next thing I know, Llama is joining into the VTs (well, SS)

I really need to go through exactly what happened and why but what's your view on all of that?
You can wait until tonight for me to go through it properly if easier though.
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Post Post #1213 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 5:04 am

Post by VFP »

In post 1211, Kerset wrote:but do you respect him as a player like ana?
I respect all players.
If you mean skill wise, yes. Llama I treat the same as I treat Pooky.
I don't know why, but I just know to be cautious around their actions.
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Post Post #1214 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 5:08 am

Post by LlamaFluff »

In post 1203, T-Bone wrote:I think Llama essentially flipping the game away from perhaps the correct elimination to an incorrect one is more suspect. The only thing that gives me pause is that Llama puts themselves at risk to be the Day 2 lim. But it's also the type of thing I'd do as solo scum I think, as Day 3 is MyLo if we get there, and scum lovers have a slightly better EV I think than solo scum in that situation.

So for me I have two minds. Is Bambi pocketing me, or is Llama making the play I think I'd make as scum in his position?
If its RM/Ana... wouldnt it have been the worst possible thing for me as scum to flip it away from that pair after trying to redirect it there are deadline? Its already now proven and was likely that SS was the first from the VT pool to go, and if we move back to this same scenario with RM/Ana scum already dead it pretty much means I would win right?

Instead we get this scenario where at least one player who has to be VT has already expressed they would vote me over Bambi.

Vote Bambi
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Post Post #1215 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 5:29 am

Post by Bambi Jay »

I mean it's bad but you got a deadline extension and also made the main push to get Smart out instead of Ana and co.

This is the main thing wrong here. This is literally what Vex meant when they said they didn't wanna deal with you in a finale setting. I believe in town to solve this tho.

Considering how this is going so far if Ana and Ration got elimed instead then flipped town you literally would've gone all or nothing against Tbone and VFP. The game would've come down to Smart siding with one of us but you didn't trust it to be you.

My solve is twofold. They save Ration and Ana because Ration has been on my ass this entire game and that gets 4 votes on me. Literally RM and Ana are playing against each other so it depends on who gets 4 votes first.

This is most based on the fact that Ration and Ana are divided by me and Llama who we now know is one town one scum. Bingle and Kerset divided between Smart/Vex and me, who from my perspective is town/town since I know I'm town and Smart flipped.

Sure both the other Lovers are divided but the other 2 Are divided between scum and town. Kerset and Bingle are divided by Town and Town votes. So it has to be Kerset and Bingle because scum don't divide so easily against one of their own but they CAN split and attack both VTs while leaving their partner alone.

Team has to be Bingle/Kerset/Llama. Final solve but we win this only if we all vote before Ration gets back because frankly he'll scum side instead.
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Post Post #1216 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 5:46 am

Post by Kerset »

In post 1215, Bambi Jay wrote:This is most based on the fact that Ration and Ana are divided by me and Llama who we now know is one town one scum. Bingle and Kerset divided between Smart/Vex and me, who from my perspective is town/town since I know I'm town and Smart flipped.

Sure both the other Lovers are divided but the other 2 Are divided between scum and town. Kerset and Bingle are divided by Town and Town votes. So it has to be Kerset and Bingle because scum don't divide so easily against one of their own but they CAN split and attack both VTs while leaving their partner alone.
Why llama never gives ideas like this? Everyone shares some creativity with us expect of llama, who only fights arguments.
giv me pagetop :(
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Post Post #1217 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 5:47 am

Post by T-Bone »

In post 1212, VFP wrote:
In post 1204, T-Bone wrote:Also I was wrong on SS, I'm not so arrogant that I wouldn't reconsider my read on the two players in question entirely. It's something we'll have to work through over these next few days, VFP.
In fairness I was wrong there too.
My main reasons to Swapping were because of your vote, SS most likely being scum, and I wasn't sure if I'd be on at all in the six hours.

So with your Bambi read, I'm happy with it. There was something Kersel said that I was thinking over but I'll find and post it once I'm free.
The thing with Llama was the vote onto Ana when no votes were there.
Once I changed my view and voted Llama unvotes (may have been after your vote too, I need to read and clarify).
Then next thing I know, Llama is joining into the VTs (well, SS)

I really need to go through exactly what happened and why but what's your view on all of that?
You can wait until tonight for me to go through it properly if easier though.
Well it's a continuation of the question I posed yesterday. Why couldn't we eliminate one of the lover pairs, but we could eliminate S_S?
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Post Post #1218 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 5:49 am

Post by T-Bone »

In post 1214, LlamaFluff wrote:
In post 1203, T-Bone wrote:I think Llama essentially flipping the game away from perhaps the correct elimination to an incorrect one is more suspect. The only thing that gives me pause is that Llama puts themselves at risk to be the Day 2 lim. But it's also the type of thing I'd do as solo scum I think, as Day 3 is MyLo if we get there, and scum lovers have a slightly better EV I think than solo scum in that situation.

So for me I have two minds. Is Bambi pocketing me, or is Llama making the play I think I'd make as scum in his position?
If its RM/Ana... wouldnt it have been the worst possible thing for me as scum to flip it away from that pair after trying to redirect it there are deadline? Its already now proven and was likely that SS was the first from the VT pool to go, and if we move back to this same scenario with RM/Ana scum already dead it pretty much means I would win right?

Instead we get this scenario where at least one player who has to be VT has already expressed they would vote me over Bambi.

Vote Bambi
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Post Post #1219 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 6:01 am

Post by Bambi Jay »

In post 1216, Kerset wrote:
In post 1215, Bambi Jay wrote:This is most based on the fact that Ration and Ana are divided by me and Llama who we now know is one town one scum. Bingle and Kerset divided between Smart/Vex and me, who from my perspective is town/town since I know I'm town and Smart flipped.

Sure both the other Lovers are divided but the other 2 Are divided between scum and town. Kerset and Bingle are divided by Town and Town votes. So it has to be Kerset and Bingle because scum don't divide so easily against one of their own but they CAN split and attack both VTs while leaving their partner alone.
Why llama never gives ideas like this? Everyone shares some creativity with us expect of llama, who only fights arguments.
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Post Post #1220 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 6:36 am

Post by RationalMadman »

In post 1190, Anastasia wrote:the solution is just Llama - T-Bone - VFP
Why isn't the solution the same pair with Bambi?
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Post Post #1221 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 6:39 am

Post by RationalMadman »

In post 1215, Bambi Jay wrote:They save Ration and Ana because Ration has been on my ass this entire game and that gets 4 votes on me. Literally RM and Ana are playing against each other so it depends on who gets 4 votes first.
The second part of this is a delusion both you and Llama seem to have. I have not in any shape or form played 'against Ana' and other than being inactive, she hasn't played against me.

Ana wasn't going after Llama until the end of the the day phase, I was scumreading you from early on and Ana never 'fought me' on it.

As for the former idea, why risk me being hammered then? The only reason to risk that is if Llama, as Scum, had Bingle and Kerset as partners and they'd planned well ahead of time that if S_S didn't hammer me, they find a good reason to switch (which explains why Bingle joined Llama in switching as they didn't feel confident their pair would win the vote-off the following day but did feel confident Llama wins the vanilla claims vote-off).
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Post Post #1222 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 6:40 am

Post by RationalMadman »

In post 1207, Kerset wrote:RM doesn't care about Ana reads
This is false. The only times she's outed reads, I have cared and engaged her.
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Post Post #1223 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 6:52 am

Post by VFP »

In post 1217, T-Bone wrote:Well it's a continuation of the question I posed yesterday. Why couldn't we eliminate one of the lover pairs, but we could eliminate S_S?
Well we were obviously wrong on one of the 2 pairs during the timing of voting.
So it's depending who was voting where, and who had already built an argument to not change the vote to either the 1st or 2nd pair we were on.

If I'm over thinking this and getting tunneled then tell me but this goes back to Ana and RM. They couldn't change their vote from us when we changed ours to them or it just looks like survival.
Bingle Kerset could have bitten and let us lead it.

The other option is if it is Llama Bingle and Kerset, then we are most likely in a 3 v 4 in votes with both lovers pushing us. This then leaves a 50/50 on confirmed Bambi.
Bambi has been getting pushed as just blind town just as much as scum with us. This is possibly to go with this and use it as reason to discredit Bambi's reads if confirmed as town.
I forget who exactly has been saying this but I feel like it was Kerset. (Correct as needed)
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Post Post #1224 (ISO) » Tue May 25, 2021 6:55 am

Post by RationalMadman »

In post 1214, LlamaFluff wrote:wouldnt it have been the worst possible thing for me as scum to flip it away from that pair after trying to redirect it there are deadline? Its already now proven and was likely that SS was the first from the VT pool to go, and if we move back to this same scenario with RM/Ana scum already dead it pretty much means I would win right?
Depends on your pair and how deeply confident you were that your pair won the following day's vote-off.

I think you were semi-confident that if S_S hammered Ana and me, even if your pair lost the vote-off, you'd win the 3-way (as S_S would be voted).

So, I am pondering if you're scum what clues you gave earlier in the day as to which Pair you're aligned with but so far it's extremely cryptic to me. If Bambi is scum, I do think it makes more sense she's with Tbone and VFP for at least 2 strong reasons (one is the reason Bingle townreads her, that she suddenly said it would be funny if Klick and Tbone were lovers this time despite not knowing) and the latter is that Klick and Tbone, or now VFP and Tbone are the only pair she's not clashed with.

I am also curious of something else, with regards to the PTs being released (I checked towards end of last DP and while being voted on top of the time when Llama asked when PTs are being released, as well as right now). Who would not want to release their PTs from last game to now and why? Both Tbone and Klick were vanilla townies last game, meaning that if scum is withholding PTs from last game, it's only 1/3 probability that they're scum (not 50%, incorporation this theory). That makes me highly suspect Kerset and Bingle. On the other hand, it's possible it is Tbone, VFP and Bambi and Bambi is the one preventing it so it's overall useless information but it makes me wonder
why
it's being withheld.

Has everyone in this game that had a PT last game consented to the release now? I have.

I want to see if the 'vibe' each pair described this game matches their PT last game at all. I know that Bingle was actually very reserved in the PT last game. Therefore, I feel there is higher likelihood Kerset's description of the PT with Bingle does add up and is realistic, this is something that is of course too easy to be a false positive given how generic the description of the PT was. I didn't want to mention any of this before as I did and do believe it's VFP and Tbone regardless and think it's possible Vex is the one who didn't want to release PTs.

This information overall is indeed useless in terms of deciding today's vote, since it's all 'if them, then it doesn't matter that way around and vice versa' but I don't understand who has to hide their lover PT or scum PT unless there is a plan or way of thinking that may reveal something this time.

Odds-wise I do therefore Town-lean Llama here because Llama not only asked mod (as I did earlier in the day phase) why PTs aren't being released (I assumed mod would message me when it's released so didn't check much at all but began to get curious after Llama mentioned it again). Llama also asked to extend the day phase after replacements (Llama was extremely safe from being eliminated but may have done this as currently at that moment it was becoming Tbone's pair vs Kerset's in the vote so it's possible scum-Llama does that to indirectly enable the sidetrack and release of pressure away from his pair, whichever it was).

I find these things both lean Town though, Bambi doesn't even answer a massive portion of Kerset's questions to her, all of which have been good. One of the best questions was originally when Bambi voted Kerset, she said that Klick and Tbone had been proactive, yet why on Earth was that true? Kerset quoted themselves asking it several times over, all of which Bambi ignored in essence.

Kerset then asks Bambi why she votes the way she's voting and accuses her of opportunistic voting, which Bambi again totally ignores. This either means it's a bus-like situation, distancing, where Bambi knows Kerset won't push harder based on it or it means Kerset is town (PoE, Tbone and VFP aren't) and that Bambi has scumtold repeatedly.
Everyone's a fool in some ways, we all can only try.

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