Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Vanderscamp]

At work atm but should be kind of present

[Hopkirk]

i'm sleeping now, can anyone case Marci as town or scum overnight to add to my thoughts?

[Lukewarm]

maaaan I haaaate this gamestate

all three of {marci, vanders, GL} are gonna say/have said to elim the other two and it's really hard for me to tell whether marci/vanders are being disingenuous here because it's exactly what they likely would be saying as either alignment, and I'm struggling to figure out a way to solve in the two because it's a solo scum remaining and neither is notably poor as scum from what I can tell.

I do think Vanders' associatives with Bingle's are better than marci's, the main reason I was locked on him D2 is because I think his were almost

too

good and therefore more likely to be manufactured. But at the same time I can't help but feel marci was certainly more reluctant to vote Bingle, and Bingle also seemed more willing to vote Vanders than marci.

it gives me this uneasy feeling that something is terribly wrong with this game

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people, so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

I do think this game is different because in that game he really had no good reactions regarding his partner (I'm not including his vote as a "good interaction") whereas here he does.

Since I do think you are towny I'm more happy with a "vote Marci and then evaluate" plan than just wanting to kill you both in either order, I'd be pretty unhappy with killing you today even if I somehow knew I wouldn't get killed tomorrow because Marci is someone who I don't feel super good about being scum, but she's just given me really no reason to actually read anything she's done this game as towny so it's going to be pretty hard to not kill her in a final three.

Curious about this. You say that neither me or hopkirk are "lock town," but that GL is towny?

How would you rank the 3 of us?

[Vanderscamp]

i'm sleeping now, can anyone case Marci as town or scum overnight to add to my thoughts?

I'll do both


I thought Marci was town because I think bingle believes strongly in the pool analysis and I'm not sure he would have wanted to put Marci in the big pool.
I think Marci is scummy because it's D3 and this is basically the only reason I have for reading her as town.
I think a lot of her reads don't have any obvious thought progression behind them, even though I really disagree with what GL was saying regarding me I could at least understand afterwards how he came to those conclusions, with Marci I don't see any reasoning that is obviously coming from a town mindset

[Lukewarm]

@Vanders

Spoiler:

maaaan I haaaate this gamestate

all three of {marci, vanders, GL} are gonna say/have said to elim the other two and it's really hard for me to tell whether marci/vanders are being disingenuous here because it's exactly what they likely would be saying as either alignment, and I'm struggling to figure out a way to solve in the two because it's a solo scum remaining and neither is notably poor as scum from what I can tell.

I do think Vanders' associatives with Bingle's are better than marci's, the main reason I was locked on him D2 is because I think his were almost

too

good and therefore more likely to be manufactured. But at the same time I can't help but feel marci was certainly more reluctant to vote Bingle, and Bingle also seemed more willing to vote Vanders than marci.

it gives me this uneasy feeling that something is terribly wrong with this game

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people, so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

I do think this game is different because in that game he really had no good reactions regarding his partner (I'm not including his vote as a "good interaction") whereas here he does.

Since I do think you are towny I'm more happy with a "vote Marci and then evaluate" plan than just wanting to kill you both in either order, I'd be pretty unhappy with killing you today even if I somehow knew I wouldn't get killed tomorrow because Marci is someone who I don't feel super good about being scum, but she's just given me really no reason to actually read anything she's done this game as towny so it's going to be pretty hard to not kill her in a final three.

Curious about this. You say that neither me or hopkirk are "lock town," but that GL is towny?

How would you rank the 3 of us?

[Vanderscamp]

maaaan I haaaate this gamestate

all three of {marci, vanders, GL} are gonna say/have said to elim the other two and it's really hard for me to tell whether marci/vanders are being disingenuous here because it's exactly what they likely would be saying as either alignment, and I'm struggling to figure out a way to solve in the two because it's a solo scum remaining and neither is notably poor as scum from what I can tell.

I do think Vanders' associatives with Bingle's are better than marci's, the main reason I was locked on him D2 is because I think his were almost

too

good and therefore more likely to be manufactured. But at the same time I can't help but feel marci was certainly more reluctant to vote Bingle, and Bingle also seemed more willing to vote Vanders than marci.

it gives me this uneasy feeling that something is terribly wrong with this game

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people, so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

I do think this game is different because in that game he really had no good reactions regarding his partner (I'm not including his vote as a "good interaction") whereas here he does.

Since I do think you are towny I'm more happy with a "vote Marci and then evaluate" plan than just wanting to kill you both in either order, I'd be pretty unhappy with killing you today even if I somehow knew I wouldn't get killed tomorrow because Marci is someone who I don't feel super good about being scum, but she's just given me really no reason to actually read anything she's done this game as towny so it's going to be pretty hard to not kill her in a final three.

Curious about this. You say that neither me or hopkirk are "lock town," but that GL is towny?

How would you rank the 3 of us?

Hopkirk
Luke
GL
Marci


GL increasing in towniness generally over the last few irl days

[Vanderscamp]

@Vanders

Spoiler:

maaaan I haaaate this gamestate

all three of {marci, vanders, GL} are gonna say/have said to elim the other two and it's really hard for me to tell whether marci/vanders are being disingenuous here because it's exactly what they likely would be saying as either alignment, and I'm struggling to figure out a way to solve in the two because it's a solo scum remaining and neither is notably poor as scum from what I can tell.

I do think Vanders' associatives with Bingle's are better than marci's, the main reason I was locked on him D2 is because I think his were almost

too

good and therefore more likely to be manufactured. But at the same time I can't help but feel marci was certainly more reluctant to vote Bingle, and Bingle also seemed more willing to vote Vanders than marci.

it gives me this uneasy feeling that something is terribly wrong with this game

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people, so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

I do think this game is different because in that game he really had no good reactions regarding his partner (I'm not including his vote as a "good interaction") whereas here he does.

Since I do think you are towny I'm more happy with a "vote Marci and then evaluate" plan than just wanting to kill you both in either order, I'd be pretty unhappy with killing you today even if I somehow knew I wouldn't get killed tomorrow because Marci is someone who I don't feel super good about being scum, but she's just given me really no reason to actually read anything she's done this game as towny so it's going to be pretty hard to not kill her in a final three.

Curious about this. You say that neither me or hopkirk are "lock town," but that GL is towny?

How would you rank the 3 of us?

Yeah, saw this but could not respond until now

[Vanderscamp]

I do think GL is towny, I have reasons to suspect everyone luke and below but I think overall there are more and better reasons to townread GL and above than to scumread them

Marci's the only player I think is more likely than baseline to be scum here

[Lukewarm]

Am I just biased for Marci?

Literally every other player this game has said that marci was scummy [except for Bingle lmao] but then I am not seeing it

[Lukewarm]

I really feel like Marci trying to talk me out of suspecting Hopkirk seems town (same for GL btw, but to a lesser extent).

Spoiler:

i dont really think hes scum, the way hes been replying doesnt feel like it to me.

I think that this post was designed to ensure that his push on Hopkirk never went through

(thinking emoji here)
i like ur points sis, but i dont agree with a hopkirk sus

It was a fake push designed to fail, so that everyone would townbin hopkirk (which everyone did).

thats not why i've been townreading hopkirk but alright

I think that one of us absolutely needs to go. Me and you both making it to Elo sounds like a nightmare for town tbh.

i think u rlly need to like... do sumn else for a bit and come back with a fresher pair of eyes.
if ur both town this will lead to failure probs.

like the failure state for town!marci has to be that she gets eliminated and the wrong one in Vanders/GL gets eliminated, right? I don't think either scum!GL or scum!Vanders have put themselves in a position to capitalize on Lukewarm-Hop TvT

hes gonna tunnel on him and i dont want that

Also, can you drop your hopkirk town case in here before the new day starts?

I forget where exactly I started thinking it, but I realized that his replies didn't really seem off.. like when i took a step back and just looked at how he interacted with other people, it seemed like hes a townie (if im understanding him and his style right..) its like a vibe read but more advanced than my viberead i had on dunnstral

Spoiler:

in the main thread
-even tho i don't quite understand the post 307 doesn't really seem like it has any bad intentions, and it just seems like townie questioning something.
-325
-356 his thingy on u seems genuine (like he wants to solve u)
-372, thats alot of work he put in there.. i don't think scum would've done that.

This all screamed "townie who does not want to lose because Luke tunnels" to me.

And then I compare that to Vanders over here, leaving the door open for Day 4 with a

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people, so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

Which looks much more like someone who is making it look like he could reasonably side with me Day 4 when I tunnel Hopkirk.

[Lukewarm]

I also find that quote interesting given that he has hopkirk higher on his townie list then I am

Hopkirk
Luke
GL
Marci

Like, why is he leaving so much "but maybe this could actually be hopkirk" behind in his iso, if hopkirk really is his strongest TR, unless it is to fall back on it and egg me on to tunnel Hopkirk tomorrow?

[Lukewarm]

VOTE: Vanders

[Vanderscamp]

I really feel like Marci trying to talk me out of suspecting Hopkirk seems town (same for GL btw, but to a lesser extent).

Spoiler:

i dont really think hes scum, the way hes been replying doesnt feel like it to me.

I think that this post was designed to ensure that his push on Hopkirk never went through

(thinking emoji here)
i like ur points sis, but i dont agree with a hopkirk sus

It was a fake push designed to fail, so that everyone would townbin hopkirk (which everyone did).

thats not why i've been townreading hopkirk but alright

I think that one of us absolutely needs to go. Me and you both making it to Elo sounds like a nightmare for town tbh.

i think u rlly need to like... do sumn else for a bit and come back with a fresher pair of eyes.
if ur both town this will lead to failure probs.

like the failure state for town!marci has to be that she gets eliminated and the wrong one in Vanders/GL gets eliminated, right? I don't think either scum!GL or scum!Vanders have put themselves in a position to capitalize on Lukewarm-Hop TvT

hes gonna tunnel on him and i dont want that

Also, can you drop your hopkirk town case in here before the new day starts?

I forget where exactly I started thinking it, but I realized that his replies didn't really seem off.. like when i took a step back and just looked at how he interacted with other people, it seemed like hes a townie (if im understanding him and his style right..) its like a vibe read but more advanced than my viberead i had on dunnstral

Spoiler:

in the main thread
-even tho i don't quite understand the post 307 doesn't really seem like it has any bad intentions, and it just seems like townie questioning something.
-325
-356 his thingy on u seems genuine (like he wants to solve u)
-372, thats alot of work he put in there.. i don't think scum would've done that.

This all screamed "townie who does not want to lose because Luke tunnels" to me.

And then I compare that to Vanders over here, leaving the door open for Day 4 with a

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people, so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.

Which looks much more like someone who is making it look like he could reasonably side with me Day 4 when I tunnel Hopkirk.

I don't expect a final three of you me and hopkirk.
Do you?
And if I was in it I would vote you over him.

[Vanderscamp]

Idk what happened with that quote but my response was

I don't expect a final three of you me and hopkirk.
Do you?
And if I was in one I'd vote you over him.

[Lukewarm]

I don't expect a final three of you me and hopkirk.
Do you?
And if I was in it I would vote you over him.

If we vote for Marci today (which is what you were pushing for) then that is the exact line up I expect for tomorrow.

[Vanderscamp]

I also find that quote interesting given that he has hopkirk higher on his townie list then I am

Hopkirk
Luke
GL
Marci

Like, why is he leaving so much "but maybe this could actually be hopkirk" behind in his iso, if hopkirk really is his strongest TR, unless it is to fall back on it and egg me on to tunnel Hopkirk tomorrow?

What do you mean so much? The only time I talked about hopkirk being scum recently I explained why I think he's different from the game I just played with him when he was scum.
But I also don't think hopkirk is lock town and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.

[Vanderscamp]

I don't expect a final three of you me and hopkirk.
Do you?
And if I was in it I would vote you over him.

If we vote for Marci today (which is what you were pushing for) then that is the exact line up I expect for tomorrow.

Ok, I don't.

[Lukewarm]

I also find that quote interesting given that he has hopkirk higher on his townie list then I am

Hopkirk
Luke
GL
Marci

Like, why is he leaving so much "but maybe this could actually be hopkirk" behind in his iso, if hopkirk really is his strongest TR, unless it is to fall back on it and egg me on to tunnel Hopkirk tomorrow?

What do you mean so much? The only time I talked about hopkirk being scum recently I explained why I think he's different from the game I just played with him when he was scum.
But I also don't think hopkirk is lock town and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.

I should not have said "so much." Will retract.

[Lukewarm]

I don't expect a final three of you me and hopkirk.
Do you?
And if I was in one I'd vote you over him.

But I also don't think hopkirk is lock town and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.

This feels contradictory to me.

You have me and hopkirk as your top two town reads, and if you were in a 3 man elo with me and hopkirk, you are confidently saying that you would be voting me there.

But then you are also saying that hopkirk is not "lock town" and "it wouldn't blow your mind if" he is the scum here.

What does it mean for someone to be "lock town" if not that you would not vote them in any 3 man elo combination?

[Vanderscamp]

I don't expect a final three of you me and hopkirk.
Do you?
And if I was in one I'd vote you over him.

But I also don't think hopkirk is lock town and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.

This feels contradictory to me.

You have me and hopkirk as your top two town reads, and if you were in a 3 man elo with me and hopkirk, you are confidently saying that you would be voting me there.

But then you are also saying that hopkirk is not "lock town" and "it wouldn't blow your mind if" he is the scum here.

What does it mean for someone to be "lock town" if not that you would not vote them in any 3 man elo combination?

Lock town to me means someone who has a zero or close to zero chance of being scum.
Hopkirk is my top town but not lock town.
Norwegian would have been close to if not lock town to me if he were in the big pool after his D1 and especially his interactions with bingle.

[marcistar]

it's kind of weird to be both confused that you're townreading too many people + townreading neutralish Dunn who I'd expect to be in the POE there). i should probably have another looked through her posts

i keep second guessing my assessments.. should i not be? im so unsure if im right about everything i think
dunnstral just seemed townie bro

Since I do think you are towny I'm more happy with a "vote Marci and then evaluate" plan than just wanting to kill you both in either order, I'd be pretty unhappy with killing you today even if I somehow knew I wouldn't get killed tomorrow because Marci is someone who I don't feel super good about being scum, but she's just given me really no reason to actually read anything she's done this game as towny so it's going to be pretty hard to not kill her in a final three.

yall shouldve voted me > dunnstral yesterday i cause too much confusion

[marcistar]

I think Marci is scummy because it's D3 and this is basically the only reason I have for reading her as town.
I think a lot of her reads don't have any obvious thought progression behind them, even though I really disagree with what GL was saying regarding me I could at least understand afterwards how he came to those conclusions, with Marci I don't see any reasoning that is obviously coming from a town mindset

im sorry i dont have good reads this game

-

just elim me guys if ur so sure that ull be voting in the right direction the next phase everyone keeps coming back to susing me, so im bad for town, so we should do this so that everyone gets a clearer mind!!!

[Lukewarm]

I would just like to point out that I made a case against Hopkirk, and I made a big show of it. It became a big topic of discussion in the thread.

Hopkirk commented and told me I was wrong.
Marci commented and told me I was wrong.
Guilty Lion commented and told me I was wrong.
Not_Mafia lightly commentated on reading it and made it clear that he did not believe it.
Dunn died before he could comment on it

and I am still salty about that

And then there is Vanders. He has not mentioned it once. Even when asked to talk about me post 1037.

And not only did he not comment on it directly, he left a short comment about not being surprised if Hopkirk were the scum this game.

Literally every player in the game seems to be trying to keep me from tunneling Hopkirk except Vanders.

[Vanderscamp]

I would just like to point out that I made a case against Hopkirk, and I made a big show of it. It became a big topic of discussion in the thread.

Hopkirk commented and told me I was wrong.
Marci commented and told me I was wrong.
Guilty Lion commented and told me I was wrong.
Not_Mafia lightly commentated on reading it and made it clear that he did not believe it.
Dunn died before he could comment on it

and I am still salty about that

And then there is Vanders. He has not mentioned it once. Even when asked to talk about me post 1037.

And not only did he not comment on it directly, he left a short comment about not being surprised if Hopkirk were the scum this game.

Literally every player in the game seems to be trying to keep me from tunneling Hopkirk except Vanders.

I checked to see what you're talking about and I haven't read it.
I haven't caught up with the last few pages of this game, I'm trying to respond to current stuff instead.
I'm pretty sure you're misquoting my thoughts on hopkirk because it's definitely not true that I wouldn't be surprised if he were scum.

[Lukewarm]

I'm pretty sure you're misquoting my thoughts on hopkirk because it's definitely not true that I wouldn't be surprised if he were scum.

This is what I was referring to

I definitely think there's a nonzero chance that either Luke or hopkirk is scum, I don't think either of them is lock town.
I just played a game with hopkirk where a lot of the thread was pretty scummy, and hopkirk was sort of chilling and being aggressively null the entire time, but never really on anyone's radar because there were scummier people,

so it wouldn't blow my mind if something similar is happening.