In post 1446, Prism wrote:I just had a long drive really reflecting and thinking on the events of the game, which I haven't been able to do since I've been bedridden.
I strongly feel this game ends with a Child/Noraa flip.
The short of it is:
-HEM never actually voting that slot despite it being his best chance at a counterwagon. There's further depth to this but it's clear imo that he wasn't confident in his ability to win the game solo.
-Noraa's claims about how much she read the game beforehand have been inconsistent and perhaps even contradictory (She was sure her slot was scum, but also sure my slot was scum, claims to have read minimally)
-Ydrasse simply doesn't come out that strong yesterday playing solo, even with the time to regroup. Satoru is not at all waiting to feel out the day but 100% just jumps in, which requires a strict plan over the flexibility that most scum opt for in this case
-T3 I'm less sold on but I suspect he hasn't developed the depth & confidence to be able to hammer a claimed townlean over something more lukewarm (hue) or scumleaning
-Hectic perhaps got scared of the result of a Child town flip but I doubt it, he also recognizes that the HEM slot is only going to pick up steam
-Infinity/Lukewarm are still hardtown
There's a lot I want to doublecheck here when my processing ability is back: Noraa meta, T3 meta, rework over Hectic, Ydrasse meta, in basically that order
In post 1448, Prism wrote:Noraa, do you mind chonologically explaining what reads in the game you developed and how much you had read at the point you developed them?
On a separate note, drawing a comparison to Dandelion was decent but there is a crucial difference between this game and Tenet, namely that I successfully used that persuasion to get scum flipped on Day 1. You seem to have gone back in ISO and focused solely on why I am scum, and painted those interactions about alternative votes accordingly, rather than working forward. It is very difficult for me to believe that even in ISO it is unclear how relentless I was in shoving an HEM vote, and I can only think you are working in reverse. While others correctly pointed out that in context these "alternatives" were very grudging, the strength of the assertion that I wanted people to go elsewhere is not something I think can come from working forwards.
Finally, a point I missed above with Child was the way Child engaged with me. Child was incredibly attentive to my posts; when I suggested it was time for more breadth they immediately reacted and gave a full wall. When they ignored my questions and instead continued to push me with a one liner, and I hardchallenged them, they immediately understood exactly what I meant and openly took up my suggestions for alternative points on me. They noticed I was, in their words, incredibly rude to Infinity but did not step in, defend her, or assert that others should say more in the game. This makes me suspect several aspects of this were strategic, and that they feared not just that I would get upset but that I would turn an aggressive eye toward them.
I have limited time but I will address these.
I don't know what exactly the circumstances were but I don't think it's always a great idea to be voting a large counter wagon. Yes its the goal but it's pretty hard to pull off without getting questioned later on for it. Another thing is that if the scum team was HEM and child, HEM is imo the more valuable player. I dont really want to go in depth into this so we'll leave it here.
You have things mixed up. I was pretty certain Child was scum prior to repping in. I had read only the beginning of day 2 at that point. The reason was because the rest of the game was on similar wavelengths and the overall vibe pointed to child scum. After repping in, that thought went down the drain and I started thinking. I read the beginning of the first day and immediately felt heavy tenet vibes from you. That SR was so vivid I felt like I was reliving Tenet in your posts. I remember there was one of your posts that struck me the most.
In post 50, Prism wrote:I'm not really thrilled with Ydrasse's selection. It was made to pressure her to vote somewhere, I had to prod her further by making the comment about my nails, and the vote wound up on someone she just watched get in her own head/buckle to pressure in another game
as town
. The stakes aren't really comparable yet but I found it a lackluster choice.
I'm not sure exactly what I was thinking at the time now seeing this post again. But I think the gist of it is that at the time, Super's play was still a very recent memory(that game ended like one or two days before I repped in here). Seeing Ydrasse post sparked a huge reaction from me. It was like Super spawned herself a twin named ydrasse and that made me really paranoid. It turned into a townread really fast and I ended up thinking anyone questioning her had bad motivations. That's the gist of it. It's not totally accurate since other things played in including tenet vibes and your prfpc.
I take back my Lukewarm townread also. And overnight I've developed a strong Prism TR.
I did some game analysis and Prism scum actually makes zero sense mech wise. I hate reading mech but I mapped out the game yesterday and thought of all sorts of possibilities and Prism has to be the worse scum ever to bus their buddy on day 1 in a setup like this.
My conclusion was basically that Prism, if scum would have to get through 3 town mislims on their own(number might be wrong. I did the analysis yesterday and can't remember atm) and also all the targets put on at night have to stay alive. Which doesn't sound too bad maybe but the probability of it all working out are pretty low and if anyone catches on, it will all come crashing down. Other options include not setting them ablaze the same night but doing it twice or just getting to lylo and doing it the normal way. Both are difficult because the winning odds typically go down to like 50% which isn't that high. Also, seeing that prism got the lim of their choice in such a disorganized group means that prism could've easily got the lim elsewhere. All in all, Prism scum makes zero sense is an opinion that I developed overnight.
Lukewarm. I was ready to come in with a townread today but no. I see why I'm a suspect but voting me right off the back and defending T3 is such a bad look. I hate it so much. I was 100% certain last scum was hectic but now I'm questioning everything. Like the issue is this: I do NOT ever want to be the game losing lim tomorrow but if I die today, I am very worried about tomorrow. T3 has said recently(outside of this game) that he is pretty busy. I don't TR him but if he is town, he is a very big mislim possibility. The fact that Lukewarm is hard town reading T3 gives me the heeby jeebies. There's too many wifom possibilities there and I've sped run through those in my head with the main ones being saving him to be the game winning mislim and using like "reverse mentality". Its that thing I talked about yesterday how if someone told me to vote someone but not someone else. Or "or someone else". I'm more likely to not vote the one I'm told to vote.
Were you in Tenet? Also I was definitely working backwards. The moment I saw your posts and thought of Cabd, I got immense paranoia and it lead to me seeing everything you said in a bad light. I still have lingering effects of that but I'm pushing that paranoia aside because it makes no sense for you to be scum here mech wise. I didn't think pushing HEM was that town indicative yesterday. It really isn't in a typical game but this setup just makes it very town indicative to be leading a scum wagon.
Conclusion: If I cannot get at least half of this game to believe I am town, I should die today because tomorrow is lylo assuming for the worst(that all tagged players are still alive)
I am now pretty certain scum is in Lukewarm and Hectic. I do sincerely hope it is not Lukewarm but I am having trouble clearing that possibility away at this point.
Aside from Prism and Infinity, I could see just about anyone dying tomorrow in lylo assuming I flip today.
I could see people pushing Nakata through pushing ydrasse.
I could see people pushing T3 for activity reasons.
I could see people pushing hectic because paranoia.
I still haven't gone through my hectic case I realize but I didn't do that overnight so that'll wait a bit. My strongest reason atm is that his read on me feels faked. He's never really given me a read straight off the bat and then thrown me into a readslist just like that. He always hesitates a bit when town because he knows that I react badly to pressure and because my reads and towniness fluctuate depending on surroundings.
Alright I have to go. I don't want my replacement to be the reason we lose this game so I'll try my best to reply to everything but give me time because I have an ap exam soon.
