Mini Theme 2217 | Owner's market blitz | Over

[Something_Smart]

@S_S why would that be an awkward position?

Because if marci is scum then possibly Kitty got the cop and she can fake confirm herself by saying Distance had the cop and clearly inno'd her.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

I think scum bought either the 2-shot AD or the watcher. Spending up to 500 still leaves them 300 to outbid any townie that has won any role already, as well as leaving the last scum with the money to buy the daykill if it appears. They wouldn't want to let town get 4 shots of investigative power so late in the game, so I think they had to bite the bullet yesterDay. I haven't died yet because of the money I think, because scum is, as someone coined the term, "coinhunting" in this game.

Gamma didnt switch to VFP day 1. Scum!Gamma only refuses to switch if he is partnered with VFP I think. If Gamma and VFP both bid these amounts today the scumteam can no longer outbid everyone for the daykill.

This means gamma isn't scum

with

VFP.

[Something_Smart]

On the last thing: they feel rather disorganized given the Flea NK, that seems a bit like out-of-touch scum. So they probably failed to effectively plan out that part of their mechanical play.

I wasn't here for this, and I read but I can't guarantee that I fully understand the gamestate as it was at the end of D1. In what way was the Flea kill out-of-touch? Was fae not very townread?

If so, I feel like that implicates the people who were townreading faer.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

@S_S why would that be an awkward position?

Because if marci is scum then possibly Kitty got the cop and she can fake confirm herself by saying Distance had the cop and clearly inno'd her.

I might locktown you for this as I didnt expect anyone else to have figured that out, and I doubt scum is trying to figure that out unless Marci is scum. I dont think there's any reason for you to bus scum!marci here either

[ssbm_Kyouko]

VOTE: Cupcake Butterfly

You're quiet

[Gamma Emerald]

On the last thing: they feel rather disorganized given the Flea NK, that seems a bit like out-of-touch scum. So they probably failed to effectively plan out that part of their mechanical play.

I wasn't here for this, and I read but I can't guarantee that I fully understand the gamestate as it was at the end of D1. In what way was the Flea kill out-of-touch? Was fae not very townread?

If so, I feel like that implicates the people who were townreading faer.

I feel like there were greater townreads/people I’d want dead if I were scum
Although maybe you’re onto something regarding checking who was TRing her, perhaps scum may have TMIed that one

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Also ftr I do not think Marci is scum, I've reread her several times because she keeps saying things that make me think she's using me as a townbeard/buddying me. Every time I've reread her the posts feel genuine.

[Something_Smart]

She also probably doesn't kill Distance.

[imaginality]

If Gamma and VFP both bid these amounts today the scumteam can no longer outbid everyone for the daykill.

This means gamma isn't scum

with

VFP.

Same would apply to the VFP-me scum pairing some people have been mooting. Or me-Gamma for that matter.

S&M, does ssbm's point change your views on me and/or VFP?

[imaginality]

@S_S why would that be an awkward position?

Because if marci is scum then possibly Kitty got the cop and she can fake confirm herself by saying Distance had the cop and clearly inno'd her.

I might locktown you for this as I didnt expect anyone else to have figured that out, and I doubt scum is trying to figure that out unless Marci is scum. I dont think there's any reason for you to bus scum!marci here either

I think you overestimate how difficult that was to figure out.

[mastina]

Mastina's read on ssbm is fairly consistently 'town but not top tier town' kinda stuff, and often distancing herself by saying 'well other people are saying ssbm is town' kind of stuff.

Mastina on marci starts off more neutral but shifts to calling marci 'very very likely' town, I think partly again due to other people's meta reads on marci.

I have three axes by which I read people:
-Generic General tells. When I lack any specific experience with the individuals in question and/or when I don't have others to help refine my reads on individuals, this is a generic set of tells that generally apply. Scum are more likely to do x y z overall, and town more likely to do a b c overall, you get the idea. It is a set of rules I have to gauge players in question and generate initial reads which I substantiate when more material comes to give me more on a read.

An example of a generic tell would be "in this specific situation, I expect this to not be scum bussing", i.e., with how D1 played out, a generic general tell would be that the players on the D1 scum elimination are disproportionately more likely to be town.

-Meta tells, specific to the player in general. A tell may be a towntell in general, but for a specific player can be: a much much stronger towntell, something nai, or even something that is a scumtell, maybe even strongly a scumtell for them. A tell may be a scumtell in general, but for a specific player can be: a much much stronger scumtell, something nai, or even something that indicates for that specific player, they are town. It is things based off of experience which make me determine the behavior specific to that individual as holding an alignment.

A shining example of this is my hard-clear of Smoke and Mirrors. They are the towniest slot left alive in the game.

-Group consensus tell/Majority tells/I had a better name for this but I forget it. Where I take the feedback and input of others and use it to refine my reads. I trust and value their feedback, especially if they are players I trust to be town, especially if they are players I trust to be competent, and

especially

if it is both. (Tho I have trusted players who I wasn't sure were town and wasn't sure were competent before.)

My townreads on marcistar and ssbm (and to a lesser extent, Gamma Emerald) are a result of a combination of all three, but take a lot more from the group consensus category. Reads that I have some general things that I like from them, some meta that I like, but largely am relying on trusting in the competency of others and their townreads there. While I always reserve the right to hold my own read over their own (see also, I don't buy that Cupcake Butterfly is town here in spite of Nancy's among others insistence), I am quite aware I am not some infallible scumhunter whose reads are perfect. I can be wrong, so I take the feedback of others into account which can strengthen/weaken my existing reads.

And trusting in others in marcistar/ssbm in particular is what I mean there. I have my own reasons for townreading them but not to the extent where they are locktown...but the townreads on them by others are enough to amplify those would-be-weaker townreads to be stronger.

[mastina]

S_S, mastina, did either of you bid more than 325 on cop D1?

No. I've placed bids on every item every single day so generally speaking? None of my bids have exceeded 200 because I'm always splitting my bids between four different items. (I still have a full wallet because everyone has bid higher than 200 every single day and I can't go much higher than 200 on any single bid of mine due to me spreading my money out. I can go slightly higher than 200, but not by much, because I've multiple hundreds on other items, meaning only one item per day I have a chance of getting.)

Regarding mastina, I want her and VFP to interact today because I think it's TvS - this is why I'm backing off of VFP right now.

I don't have much to say directly to VFP beyond what I have said already.

I have, reasonably strong, reasons for holding the townreads that I do.

On the D1 scum wagon, Smoke and Mirrors is locktown both because of Pooky meta (tho I admit his lack of presence here when he's posting elsewhere is a bit strange) and Nancy meta point to them being town.

Alisae's flipout here combined with Gamma's contributions make me think town there.

imaginality is the weakest on the D1 scum wagon, but imaginality has seemed like wrong-town to me more than scum and the bid on roleblocker is more likely to be town. (After all, even if he's scum, he's basically limited to, at most, a bid of 300 elsewhere.)

I have very good reason to townread MistyX/Something_Smart. Though not clear, the chance of being scum is minuscule.

I have fairly good reason to think ssbm is town. Not locktown, but pretty town.

I have relatively good reason to trust the townreads on marcistar. Not locktown, but very close to it as apparently this is outside the realms of what marcistar can do as scum.

Which leaves {VFP, Cupcake Butterfly} as scum.

Beyond that: we have the Flea nightkill on N1. The Flea nightkill is most likely to have been made by VFP, per my psychological profile on players.

Beyond that: the flipped scum's interactions with VFP strongly indicate that VFP is an incredibly likely scumbuddy.

Beyond that: VFP's own handling of D1 is a reasonably good indicator that he is scum.

Beyond that: the D2 wagon on VFP which reached L-1? Almost assuredly all-town, including having Distance the dead town having advocated for that wagon all of D2.

Beyond that: I genuinely believe that VFP's comment towards 'what he has left' may have been a scumslip of him not having the 500 that a town player would have.

I realize that VFP has a fair amount going for him which makes him look town--which is fitting for any player even remotely competent at being scum. Any player remotely competent at being scum is always going to have things which make them look town.
But the townness is outweighed by the amount which points to him being scum.

(I realize that 'competent scum which look town' is something which could be Gamma, ssbm, marcistar, or Something_Smart but of them, all have at least some compelling reasons to not be so. Where the town outweighs the scum, where the competent-scum is less likely than the actually-just-town.)

[VFP]

Beyond that: I genuinely believe that VFP's comment towards 'what he has left' may have been a scumslip of him not having the 500 that a town player would have.

I never said what I have left.
I said what I have.

I'm just making that clear now.

[Gypyx]

votecount 3.1

Gamma Emerald (0)
mastina (0)
Smoke and Mirrors (0)
Cupcake Butterfly (1) - ssbm_Kyouko
ssbm_Kyouko (1) - Imaginality
Something_Smart (0)
imaginality (3) - Smoke And Mirrors - Gamma Emerald - VFP
marcistar (0)
VFP (2) - mastina - marcistar

not voting (5) - Everyone

day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-07-02 02:48:08)

auction

the auctioned abilities are :

1-shot Godfather the top bid at mid point was 499

1-shot Tracker the top bid at mid point was 200

2-shot Ninja the top bid at mid point was 500

1-shot Jailkeeper the top bid at mid point was 150

Prodding Cupcake Butterfly

[imaginality]

Where is Cupcake? No posts at all today?

[imaginality]

Using my phone - missed the smallprint above.
I don't like that Cupcake's voting record consists of no votes D1, a vote on mastina and then on cyrus D2, and no votes D3. It's so minimal.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

If Gamma and VFP both bid these amounts today the scumteam can no longer outbid everyone for the daykill.

This means gamma isn't scum

with

VFP.

Same would apply to the VFP-me scum pairing some people have been mooting. Or me-Gamma for that matter.

S&M, does ssbm's point change your views on me and/or VFP?

The fact that I misunderstood your 90 bid, means you weren’t being hypocritical about wanting town to bid high.

If it isn’t you/VFP than someone has been pocketing me really really good.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

UNVOTE:

for now until I figure this out.

The way I see it is if Kyouku is town which I think he is, then Distance dying over him, points to VFP and if I’m wrong on Imaginality, then it could be a tmi from VFP.

It’s extremely unlikely both Imaginality and VFP are town.

[VFP]

then a green flip I was tmi.

if I’m wrong on Imaginality, then it could be a tmi from VFP.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I don't understand it.
I was just going to say that SSBM is most likely town, but if they picked the 4 roles then that's a townlock.

I'm also happy to put everyone on the Kitty wagon as town.
Scum looked dis organised or just absent to not move over to me or even try else where.

Gylyx doesn't do a VC on a flip normally I think.

VOTE: MistyxVOTE:

I also don't think Marci is scum here.

I get to enhance 4 roles which makes them 400% more likely (I think this means 5x as likely but the setup may be worded incorrectly) to appear. I enhanced the 1-shot BP and also enhanced the 3 2-shot roles that appeared today. The 1-shot AD came in with it's normal chance, but I wanted it for tomorrow because it only.gives the most recent day of history. Both ADs the same day means unless the winner holds on to a shot they'll be looking at who bought the other AD potentially which is a but of a waste imo. Thought they'd be better staggered because then the second shot would line up with the 1-shot and we'd have 2 detectives looking at toMorrows bids when the player pool is reduced more

Ah, got it.
Thats for confirming. I actually thought by enhance you made it better.

Regardless I think the 4 we got are really strong for this early in the game.

I've only played with Nancy once (it was a Pooky Nora Nancy hydra) and I was Paranoid that they were bussing scum come late game.
I was wrong though and they flipped town.

Outside of that, I have no experience that I at least remember.

I keep going back and forth on this. I want to be super confident on a VFP scumflip but I just can’t. But if Gamma’s right and you actually are Vedith, then we’ve definitely played together before Happy Face.

I just don’t see why Marci kills Distance and who of my trs I could possibly be reading wrong. I guess it’s possible CB could be pocketing me? He did give me that tr pretty fast but he’s not really being scummy either. I’ve seen his scumgame and it didn’t look anything like this.

[marcistar]

Also ftr I do not think Marci is scum, I've reread her several times because she keeps saying things that make me think she's using me as a townbeard/buddying me. Every time I've reread her the posts feel genuine.

im sorry, should i ask permission?

I don't like that Cupcake's voting record consists of no votes D1, a vote on mastina and then on cyrus D2, and no votes D3. It's so minimal.

well they also like havent talked at all today like uve noted, so no voting today isn't really weird behavior. it wouldve been much weirder if they came in and placed a vote and left

The way I see it is if Kyouku is town which I think he is, then Distance dying over him, points to VFP and if I’m wrong on Imaginality, then it could be a tmi from VFP.

It’s extremely unlikely both Imaginality and VFP are town.

i was about to give vfp a townread because i thought everything over.. but then i realize it still isn't really there. i really really do think imaginality would have to be town in this situation tho.

- -

im kinda starting to think its something_scum
622 "a few reads" but they didnt really give much reads other than on vfp.. its always nice to know what people are thinking
690, 693, 695 feels weird

Who do you think is scum? I don’t think you are but I need an alternative.

I guess my number one pick would probably be Distance, but I'm willing to compromise on almost anyone I don't townread (my townreads being VFP, mastina, S&M, maybe CB).

+828 i dont like how easily swayable they were, but like ig it could be understandable
834 (didn't really have a comment for this, just thought it was interesting )

Well ssbm seems more likely to go through because he has an extra vote, but I'm pretty ambivalent between the two.

I'll follow you though.

VOTE: Cyrus

the more that i think about it, this is prob where i was feeling off yesterday. they just like.. voting literally anywhere to save urself doesnt rlly look good imo, 844 makes it seem like they just wanted to go on what has a higher chance to go through, no real like "this persons scummy" or "this person has an antitown style" type of moment from them.
855 could be them trying to justify a miselim before it even has the chance to come back to bite them. "then we aren't killing a townie with a lot of money" this stance is icky icky.
904 like, even if its true.. it just seems like they keep using "thats just how i am" as an excuse.

Spoiler:

also like, did something_smart ever reply to 682? cant find it

I think it was pretty clear that we were looking for something we could agree on so that I didn't die.

I'm certainly not super confident in Cyrus flipping scum, I don't think any of us are, but we think he's the best target.

this is ?? to me, since like, 844 doesn't give those vibes.. + 855s "we aren't killing a townie with a lot of money" if they truly believed that stance, would they have just let the cyrus wagon go through..? cyrus kinda obviously had money.
i remember 1102 felt off to me because of them having imaginality in there. i really wonder what their stance on imaginalitys claim is cuz like.. i think they would've read it? im not sure.. but they replied to my question to them that was after imaginalitys claim.. so im assuming they're reading new posts as it comes?

That obviously would put us in an awkward position if marci reports that Distance had the cop.

Because if marci is scum then possibly Kitty got the cop and she can fake confirm herself by saying Distance had the cop and clearly inno'd her.

i dont really have a problem with these two itself, but like it makes me go because the thought process is good but like.. im so confused, because i would've thought something_smart would be able to give reads by now, if they were able to put out this kind of thoughtful observation.

On the last thing: they feel rather disorganized given the Flea NK, that seems a bit like out-of-touch scum. So they probably failed to effectively plan out that part of their mechanical play.

I wasn't here for this, and I read but I can't guarantee that I fully understand the gamestate as it was at the end of D1. In what way was the Flea kill out-of-touch? Was fae not very townread?

tbh this is kinda funny to me, cuz rn looking at it it looks like something_smart just replied to something that they fit.

something smart i still want ur reads xoxoxoxoxoxoooxox
lowkey looks like ur just avoiding it imo

- -

Fwiw, Distance might have been softing an inno on marci.

i honestly never thought he would've, i dont view myself as much of a visitable person usually

VOTE: something_smart
im so tired yall

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I still think CB is town. He’s really not trying to push anything but rather seems earnestly trying to sort.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

something_smart do u got any reads?

Still catching up, but they haven't changed much since yesterday. I still like VFP, S&M, mastina, and I'm not interested in CB or Gamma today.

Between the rest I'd prefer ssbm today I think, but I'm not opposed to imaginality.

@Marci, why does scum!SS kill Distance? If he trs VFP and he wanted to elim Kyouku > Cyrus yesterday? Because Distance kill obviously looks really bad for VFP, so unless I’m missing something?

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Fwiw, Distance might have been softing an inno on marci.

That obviously would put us in an awkward position if marci reports that Distance had the cop.

@Marci, why is this scummy?

[marcistar]

@Marci, why does scum!SS kill Distance? If he trs VFP and he wanted to elim Kyouku > Cyrus yesterday? Because Distance kill obviously looks really bad for VFP, so unless I’m missing something?

i think if something_smarts scum in this game, that it would be more like theyre just agreeing to the kills and not really choosing them out.
so like, not really ignoring the possibility that vfps scum.. i think its slightly possible they could be together, but i still want something_smart to get more into the game also with how things line against vfp im kinda having doubts.. like it might be an attempt to frame him.
another possibility i thought of, but im not sure how likely it could be, is how something_smart mentioned distance might be softing an inno on me, maybe they could've thought that he was 100% cop and needed to take him out before he could reveal the info.

Fwiw, Distance might have been softing an inno on marci.

That obviously would put us in an awkward position if marci reports that Distance had the cop.

@Marci, why is this scummy?

i dont really have a problem with these two itself, but like it makes me go because the thought process is good but like.. im so confused, because i would've thought something_smart would be able to give reads by now, if they were able to put out this kind of thoughtful observation.

i dont have a problem with it on like a "is it scummy" level, i can see the thought process as being something from town.
but them saying that just seems like theyre avoiding giving reads at this point. i thought that if they could think of that, that they would've given reads by now as well.