Micro 1018: The King's New Robes | Game Over

[DkKoba]

Dwlee99 has replaced Enchant

[Dwlee99]

Hello gamers

[VFP]

Hello

[Dwlee99]

FLIP

[Dwlee99]

Not home so zero thoughts and have done zero reading. What's game state like?

[VFP]

I have no idea.

[VFP]

I'm VT if that helps.

[Dwlee99]

Cool. I got magic.

[T3]

Vote Rock

[Dwlee99]

Y

[Dwlee99]

Okay well I definitely understand now. I'll try to breathe life into this tomorrow

[ActionDan]

I'll be honest, at a certain point, I basically lost interest in this game.

The last notable thing I remember is PP saying they were thinking of a (VFP/Enchant} team. Completely possible. VFP could be scum with anyone.

[ActionDan]

Which probably leads to town arc which then leaves
Enchant/VFP
Enchant/Rock
Rock/VFP

Does rock make that claim without intent for one partner to claim mystic? Not sure if Rock/VFP makes sense unless they didn’t bother to think about the setup/their claims

Enchant/Rock makes sense associative wise from Rock's iso. pure omgus pushing on my slot without any good reason to this point, pushing Dan, has VFP in pool
don't see thoughts i like trying to sort the mystics from rock- literally doesn't mention anything on Enchant except assuming they're conf.town is stated indirectly once

Dan what are your thoughts on my thoughtspews/any sound like they make sense?

-Hop

These are the only two posts I could muster any care for.

To the first: No idea. I don't think the claim made any sense from a town perspective, and I tend to not care about rationalizing it from a scum perspective, as you get into WIFOM territory. It could be a seamstress trying to get some equity for not being brided. It could be just some cheeky play with inextricable lines of thought behind it

For the second: I broadly agree, though the argument goes more against rockhopper. I tend to analyze associatives by looking less at scum's posts towards your person of interest than of their posts concerning flipped scum. Considering Arc's posts towards rockhopper if rock flipped scum I'd definitely eliminate enchant over arc if it comes to that (but I'd eliminate VFP before either)

[Pink Panthers]

I'll be honest, at a certain point, I basically lost interest in this game.

The last notable thing I remember is PP saying they were thinking of a (VFP/Enchant} team. Completely possible. VFP could be scum with anyone.

Have you not been reading our posts? We’re not currently sr VFP. I still don’t even understand T3’s and your case against him?

[Pink Panthers]

Which probably leads to town arc which then leaves
Enchant/VFP
Enchant/Rock
Rock/VFP

Does rock make that claim without intent for one partner to claim mystic? Not sure if Rock/VFP makes sense unless they didn’t bother to think about the setup/their claims

Enchant/Rock makes sense associative wise from Rock's iso. pure omgus pushing on my slot without any good reason to this point, pushing Dan, has VFP in pool
don't see thoughts i like trying to sort the mystics from rock- literally doesn't mention anything on Enchant except assuming they're conf.town is stated indirectly once

Dan what are your thoughts on my thoughtspews/any sound like they make sense?

-Hop

These are the only two posts I could muster any care for.

To the first: No idea. I don't think the claim made any sense from a town perspective, and I tend to not care about rationalizing it from a scum perspective, as you get into WIFOM territory. It could be a seamstress trying to get some equity for not being brided. It could be just some cheeky play with inextricable lines of thought behind it

For the second: I broadly agree, though the argument goes more against rockhopper. I tend to analyze associatives by looking less at scum's posts towards your person of interest than of their posts concerning flipped scum. Considering Arc's posts towards rockhopper if rock flipped scum I'd definitely eliminate enchant over arc if it comes to that (but I'd eliminate VFP before either)

Why? Can someone please tell me why is he scum?

[Dwlee99]

Before I start doing things do we have any mechclears?

[VFP]

T3 is cleared as the bride.
PP is basically cleared as VT from T3 proposing to them.

I'm cleared because everyone has townlocked me.

Although I'm not too sure because apparently everyone decided to lie at some point other than me.
Arc claimed VT, then into PR to CC NM.
Your slot claimed PR
T3 obviously Bride
The rest say VT.

[Dwlee99]

Do we at least know what setup we are in?

[Pink Panthers]

Summary of events/claims over the game

Massclaim pre bride

ArcAngel9 - VT
Enchant - Mystic
VFP - VT
ActionDan - VT
Gamma Faria -VT
Pink Panthers -VT
T3 - Bride
Rockhopper -VT but given seamstress suit
Not_Mafia - VT

Massclaim post bride

Rock redacted the seamstress suit claim after I pointed out this was impossible with one mystic claim
Arc switched to Mystic (making Enchant no longer 100% confirmed town)
NM switched to Mystic

D1

Notmafia flipped as VT. No kill = Notmafia started/remained VT.

D2

GammaFaria hydra modkilled. Presumably started/remained VT. Given there was a night phase, scum!Faria would have presumably had a kill if scum, but haven't verified that and they were pretty obviously town including from the private communications quoted.


-Hop

[Dwlee99]

Why do you think notmafia started as VT? Couldn't a seamstress have changed him to VT? Regardless, based on that info I feel like rock is the clear choice so I'm gonna go with t3 on that
VOTE: Rock

[Pink Panthers]

Please don't call my hydra partner an idiot.

-Hop

Then tell him to stop posting nonsense.

let me ask you again, why am I scum?

What is your read on Rockhopper?

are you reading my iso, because i did a series of posts saying i sussed rock a lot and begrudgingly townread you a bit more recently

T3 is cleared as the bride.
PP is basically cleared as VT from T3 proposing to them.

I'm cleared because everyone has townlocked me.

Although I'm not too sure because apparently everyone decided to lie at some point other than me.
Arc claimed VT, then into PR to CC NM.
Your slot claimed PR
T3 obviously Bride
The rest say VT.

we have never lied about anything in this game

Do we at least know what setup we are in?

2 bride if Arc/you are both town
1 bride 1 seamstress if one of you is town and 1 is scum

-Hop

[Pink Panthers]

Why do you think notmafia started as VT? Couldn't a seamstress have changed him to VT? Regardless, based on that info I feel like rock is the clear choice so I'm gonna go with t3 on that
VOTE: Rock

Every night you may target a player. You will give that player a suit of a role that is already in the current game, of which

the target player is informed

of.

they should/would have claimed if that was the case

-Hop

[Dwlee99]

But then why fake claim mystic? I'm not understanding. Could they have been an actress?

[Pink Panthers]

Scum I expect would slip up (or react differently) *because* they know I'm lying. It may not be a sure shot strat but it at least could have given us something to work with.

What do you think of this?

I don't think the Gamma hydra would make this slip
ActionDan seems to have noticed the same stuff i did here so is less likely scum since scum doing this strat then getting the other to point it out for towncred is super -ev

taking them out of the subsequent pool leaves (NM/VFP/Arc)

-Hop

VOTE: Panthers

It's quite strange that you conveniently leave out possible situations that involve town!me to push your confscum!rock narrative.

Assume the team is {actress, seamstress} for instance. Why don't you think a mystic could lie about their role to essentially become an activated innocent child or something of that sort? Dan seemed to have suggested the idea in his posts, but you just straight up discard it??

Even if it's just {actress, actress}, why would lying about having a seamstress suit necessarily point to me being scum?
It isn't harmful to town in any way and can help increase the likelihood of scum slipping up the way I see it (which I think is the case here).

Your case doesn't look like something that comes out of a townie mindset, since I'd expect town!you to actually analyze how sensible a lie would be from either alignment before jumping to such an extreme conclusion.

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

-Hop

[Pink Panthers]

But then why fake claim mystic? I'm not understanding. Could they have been an actress?

If they choose not to kill as scum there then they cut their win rate down from something like 28% - 14% which we're assuming they would never do, and it doesn't really matter if they did unless there's 100% associatives on slots that you'd otherwise locktown harder than your own slot (1 scum kill all game = if NM was scum and skipped kill and town isn't exiled every phase including at a 50% in lylo we win)

they fakeclaimed mystic either a.) for some kind of reaction test of Arc and/or Enchant or discourage mystic claims from scum or something else to do with claims or some other reason or b.) to. it troll depending on how much trust you want to put in NM's play

this is roughly what i said to Nancy on the subject, summarized/rephrased because i don't think i'm meant to directly quote it.


- NM scum only matters if we hit lylo of T3/us/NM's partner
- he probably fakeclaimed to bait out fakeclaims or troll
- nobody would skip a single nightkill with an IC around
- don't care if he did since we can vote out every other slot except the IC

if NM scum 8 alive post exile

- shoots conf town is 7 alive, partner needs 5 exiles at 7/6/5/4/3 with the final lylo being a 2/3 town exile - chance is 28.5% scum win by pure EVs
- no kill means 8 alive but a pool of 7 to kill in, partner needs 6 exiles at 8/7/6/5/4/3 with the final one being a 1/2 town exile - chance of scum win is 14.2%
major loss in expected values
- only kills after first scum exile, it's noncompulsive and will always be aimed at a conf.town if we've massclaimed

-Hop