Mafia 85 - Murder at the Bus Stop (game over)

[Wall-E]

When a quick wagon springs up like this on Day One, and they claim townie, the suspect is more often than not telling the truth.

Does more often then not = more then proportionate to the townie:scum ratio?

What are you saying, here? I think what you're asking is if the ratio of player to scum (typically 9:2, I believe) is higher than the ratio of towies lynched D1 to scum lynched D1 (see below).

Say the average spread were 5 town lynched for 1 scum on D1 (I doubt it's that high a success rate for town, but let's work some numbers). That would mean the odds of lynching scum on D1 are actually lower than the ratio of town to scum (9:2 vs 10:2). In that scenario, it would be a bad idea to follow through with this lynch.

Say the average spread were 4 town lynched to 1 scum (less likely). That's 9:2 vs 8:2, a vegas-odds higher success rate, meaning we'd win more often than lose in this scenario.

Is that what you're asking? I'm going to go with "It's very, very unlikely we're playing the odds safe in this situation, given that there ARE scum able to influence the lynch."

Mod edit
Votecount:
Slicey (11): Wall-E, Shanba, armlx, Surye, farside22, Riceballtail, Moratorium, Empking, BlakAdder, Alabaska J, al4xz
Surye (2): Demon Pineapple, Sir Tornado
Empking (2): RestFermata, Slicey
Wall-E (1): Mana_Ku
farside22 (1): martin413
armlx (1): Xtoxm
Xtoxm (1): killa seven

Not voting (6): Azuma, Cream147, Slepz, ace1217, Megatheory, Jebus

With 25 alive it's 13 to lynch.

[Empking]

I think he's trying to ask whether a quick wagon where the target claims townie is more likely to hit town then a random lynch.

That's probably a wrong defination but I get what armlx is saying.

[armlx]

What are you saying, here? I think what you're asking is if the ratio of player to scum (typically 9:2, I believe) is higher than the ratio of towies lynched D1 to scum lynched D1 (see below).

Well, the ratio in non-vanilla games is usually higher (3:1, give or take). I'm asking xtoxm if the ratio of people who claim townies who are lynched D1 who are actually townies to those who are scum is greater then 3:1.

So, yeah, what you said, with different odds.

Personally, I don't think it is. This is something I might get around to gathering empirical data on.

[armlx]

The other thing to consider is whether is disproportionate to the percentage of D1 lynches that are scum, as well as the percentage of D1 scum lynchees claim townie.

[armlx]

Ok, so over the past 35 games in the New York forum (down through Mafia 62).

9 people who claimed townie D1 have been lynched. 1 was scum.

4 scum have been lynched D1. 1 of those claimed townie, 1 claimed Doc, the rest did not claim.

Despite the fact the low sample size allows for a lot of variance, it appears P(scum lynch) ~= P(scum lynch | townie claim).

Statistics pwned. I might even go back further later.

[Sir Tornado]

Armlx, it doesn't have to do anything with the ratios as far as I am concerned... more to do with hunches (based on the way the player is behaving, his general play pattern, people on his wagon, etc. It's fairly complex, and I am not sure I can explain the whole thing) about such wagons which I get right more than half the time.

Basically, I post them just to see if they were right or wrong (see Mafia 70: Traditional mafia, Yamahako's and BM's lynch), and it has more to do with my ego than anything else, so I don't expect this lynch to not take place by any chance.

[armlx]

It does have to do with that as xtoxm was arguing based on the assumption townie claims D1 are more likely to be true.

While what he said is true, the important ratio (P(A) vs P(A|B)) is 1, meaning that a townie claim does not really change much.

If you would like to argue his play has been pro-town, that's a different story.

[Sir Tornado]

9 people who claimed townie D1 have been lynched. 1 was scum.

4 scum have been lynched D1. 1 of those claimed townie, 1 claimed Doc, the rest did not claim.

This does play a part, yes, because I find mafia, especially fairly newbie (and quite a few experienced) mafia do not generally claim vanilla townie when pressurized. It doesn't help mafia in any way. (for example, claiming cop can lead to counter claim, which exposes the cop, etc).

I did not mention this, because I didn't want this to be brought into open in this game and give scum any ideas, but those statistics are damning.

[Sir Tornado]

If you would like to argue his play has been pro-town, that's a different story.

er, no his play hasn't been pro-town. But, that may be his fault more than his alignments... but we'll see.

[armlx]

This does play a part, yes, because I find mafia, especially fairly newbie (and quite a few experienced) mafia do not generally claim vanilla townie when pressurized. It doesn't help mafia in any way. (for example, claiming cop can lead to counter claim, which exposes the cop, etc).

My data doesn't have enough mafia claiming townie information to prove that either way.

And what statistics are damning?

[Sir Tornado]

My data doesn't have enough mafia claiming townie information to prove that either way.

And what statistics are damning?

Oh, I misread your post... (the point still stands though)

If you have a lot of time on your hands, you might want to see how many claimed power roles (due to pressure) were scum. I think it might be a rather large number.

[Sir Tornado]

... and I meant claimed power roles on

D1

due to pressure of course.

[farside22]

Sorry I fell behind. Need to catch up.

[armlx]

If you have a lot of time on your hands, you might want to see how many claimed power roles (due to pressure) were scum. I think it might be a rather large number.

That's a lot more extra time then I have, as I would have to go back through and read full D1's of each game as power roles aren't likely to be lynched D1. Though of power roles lynched D1, the percentage being scum is higher then par, most likely due to the fact the bar for lynching claimed power roles D1 is much higher.

[Shanba]

I'm not following Shanba. I think I was actually first to vote Slicey, for reasons other than his case on Empking. Shanba, claiming that others are following you is a bit of a strange claim.

You're right. I'd actually forgotten your vote on Slicey. However, all those saying: "I agree, Vote: slicey" did so after my case, and not after your vote, so it makes more sense to say they were following me.

However, I'm actually wrong, looking at the composition of the wagon. The only votes I can say with much certainty were following me is armlx and Jebus. The rest are following Surye, and later Moratorium.

Which is who Xtoxm voted and FoSsed, though that was not the reason he gave. Given, though, that he says he was reading quickly, it would make sense that he processed this subconsciously. Tox: did armlx and Jebus' votes for Slicey influence your position on them in any way?

However, that's all beside the point I was originally trying to make, which is this: xtoxm is voting me based on gut, based on my recent posts, and is anti the Slicey lynch. As I was the first one to really lay a case down on Slicey, I assume that that is what pinged tox's gut. But surely, those who follow me based on my reasoning, such as armlx, are just as guilty if no worse than me if Slicey turns up town?

FoS: Jebus

, ftr. I consider him scummier than Slicey, so if anyone wants to help me lynch him, feel free. Actually,

Unvote Vote: Jebus

. Slicey is still a decent lynch.

[Sir Tornado]

That's a lot more extra time then I have, as I would have to go back through and read full D1's of each game as power roles aren't likely to be lynched D1. Though of power roles lynched D1, the percentage being scum is higher then par, most likely due to the fact the bar for lynching claimed power roles D1 is much higher.

And, what about the games you have been in?

Of all the new york games I was ever in, we never lynched a mafia D1 -- almost all the people I ever lynched claimed vanilla. The only time we got someone to claim cop -- DrippingGoofBall in Mafia 70, she was mafia.

This isn't exactly a big sample size, but I admit to being biased by this experience.

[Wall-E]

This is a dangerous road, armlx. On one hand, you might catch every scum in the next five games you're in if you correlate enough data. On the other hand, you'd basically be giving the scum a playbook

[farside22]

Read the pages I feel behind. A couple of questions.

First Xtoxm make a short post about who he find suspicious and then votes Shaba. With no reason I saw. Then I see this:

Jebus:

@Xotxm: I partially agree with the Shanba vote, though it'll depend how Slicey turns up as.

What exactly do you agree with here and why?
alaska:

Xtoxm, if it helps, I agree with you that Shanba is scum.

Same question why? I never saw xtoxm put a case forward. He just calls it a feeling and two people say yeah I see Shanba scummy too with no explination.
Heck I'm going with Shanba on this one. Between Alaska comment and Jebus lack of comments and agreement I'm findding him a bit more scummy in this case.

unvote:
vote: Jebus

[Sir Tornado]

Ok, the fact that this wagon is derailing at such a speed makes me reconsider my views about the wagon.

[armlx]

And, what about the games you have been in?

I could go back and compile a list later today, but I honestly only remember 1 or 2 times ever letting someone who claimed townie during a wagon live D1 and it was due to theme game flavor or other confirming circumstances, and the stats on lynches sound about the same as I saw looking back, maybe a bit better on both parts (scum lynch given townie claim D1 and scum lynch D1) due to the fact I have played a lot of minis and themes where D1 scum lynch is easier.

It really looks like farside is reaching for a reason to hop off the wagon, and Shanba is confusing me.

[Wall-E]

Don't be vague like that, sir T. What were your views, and how have they changed?

[armlx]

Wall-E, regarding this being meta changing, I doubt it. The stats currently show no correlation between claiming townie under pressure D1 and being scum.

[farside22]

And, what about the games you have been in?

I could go back and compile a list later today, but I honestly only remember 1 or 2 times ever letting someone who claimed townie during a wagon live D1 and it was due to theme game flavor or other confirming circumstances, and the stats on lynches sound about the same as I saw looking back, maybe a bit better on both parts (scum lynch given townie claim D1 and scum lynch D1) due to the fact I have played a lot of minis and themes where D1 scum lynch is easier.

It really looks like farside is reaching for a reason to hop off the wagon, and Shanba is confusing me.

Are you saying Jebus agreement with xtoxm based on nothing is reasonable?
Also I don't have a problem with Slicey lynch, but Jebus needs better response then she has been giving.

[armlx]

Are you saying Jebus agreement with xtoxm based on nothing is reasonable?

Its certainly not unreasonable to the point I would expect it to weight over the reasons you were voting Slicey. Why do you think it is scummier?

[Shanba]

Ok, the fact that this wagon is derailing at such a speed makes me reconsider my views about the wagon.

This thought requires the assumption that farside and I are scum derailing the wagon. Do you think I am scummy, Sir T? I haven't had that impression from you thus far.