Open 822: Popcorn Mafia - Game Over!!

[Vulture]

Like, saying stuff like “Hectic didn’t wait on a case from me to decide that I’m scum... so he’s scum” is the sort of thing that I don’t follow really? Why does someone need to wait for more thoughts from you if they’ve already decided you’re scum from the other thoughts you’ve put into the thread?

[Vulture]

Also given the thread’s trajectory on Enchant saying you dislike him now for making a dice roll comment of all the things that he’s said feels like an attempt to distance now that it’s a requirement for you to win versus trying to get town shots.

As in “one of us is going down, bare minimum, so now we have to make the other look good.”

[Vulture]

I feel like all game Hectic or since his rep in has been the person everyone’s played around? When he’s townread by the majority his word is law (and that’s why people flipped on Pav I think and kept him in their POEs for a while?). When there is any doubt the scum then pivot onto him to try and get him flipped.

The issue with that is, in turn... I think for getting one town flip the scum team gets shot twice over? (I agree with Luke and Enchant being scum so that’s my working assumption.)

What I think could have been a possibility before was to get a shot onto someone else and then get Hectic shot for the win, but the gladiate is throwing a wrench into things. It’s not official but it feels like it is on a way if that makes sense.

[Vulture]

So tl;dr I think most of if not all of the scum team have aligned reads on Hectic right now and have all game to try and pocket and then force out when it was opportune.

[Vulture]

I’m currently at Luke + Enchant + Toog. Enchant forgetting Hectic in his reads is incredibly funny but I also don’t know what it means for my theory. I still think it stands firm because it isn’t Enchant going /against/ it.

After T3 I lazily townbinned Hockey for most of the game but given their reads I should probably revisit, but it didn’t feel like T3 was treating him like a partner. More like how Marci was defended with the weird meta tells, Hockey got the newb treatment. Both lazy reasons when you can’t make up reasons to townread people you know are town.

[Vulture]

Okay, work time.

[HockeyFan]

Can we get a flip soon @Marci, idt my reads are changing anytime soon

[Lukewarm]

Like, saying stuff like “Hectic didn’t wait on a case from me to decide that I’m scum... so he’s scum” is the sort of thing that I don’t follow really? Why does someone need to wait for more thoughts from you if they’ve already decided you’re scum from the other thoughts you’ve put into the thread?

What a fucking mis rep.

I said that going from "here is my scum team" to "I will bet the game on this read" from before post 787 to after post 787 is wild, and not a real thought. does not seem real. Not a genuine trajectory. Scum motivated

You jumping past all of the other things that make me suspicious of hectic both in this post and my last one, trying to narrow it down to just is a wild misrep.

[Lukewarm]

I am leaning back to vulture >enchant on that last slot

[Vulture]

Like, saying stuff like “Hectic didn’t wait on a case from me to decide that I’m scum... so he’s scum” is the sort of thing that I don’t follow really? Why does someone need to wait for more thoughts from you if they’ve already decided you’re scum from the other thoughts you’ve put into the thread?

What a fucking mis rep.

I said that going from "here is my scum team" to "I will bet the game on this read" from before post 787 to after post 787 is wild, and not a real thought. does not seem real. Not a genuine trajectory. Scum motivated

You jumping past all of the other things that make me suspicious of hectic both in this post and my last one, trying to narrow it down to just is a wild misrep.

I did clarify that I was skimming; I wanted to get my thoughts out on what I noticed. This in particular was in reply to this portion:

“ The biggest concerns for me there are first that I have not even made a case yet at this point. Without seeing my thoughts to look at them to gauge if they were genuine, the mere idea that I was swapping to a scum read on him meant he was ready to bet the whole game on his brand new read? Which, to be clear, he was claiming to be so sure that he was willing to bet the whole game. In the world of town!hectic, if he If you shot him first, and he instantly shoots me. Of he is wrong, town loses

So I guess I don't see the genuine town thought processes behind seeing exactly that post "been thinking about the game wrong, will write it all out tonight" and think, "aha! I have caught scum, and I am so sure that I will bet the game on it" -- and I think it was actually designed to preempt and discredit the case I had coming.”

This is one issue I have with your scumread on Hectic, not all of them. You made some weird posts that were tonally Bad that I picked up on as well. Like, bad-bad. He locks you in on that and you are saying here that it’s scummy that he didn’t wait to scumread you is my interpretation, but my problem with that is that you have an iso’s worth of stuff to read so him scumreading you and feeling confident isn’t an issue? He gauged that you weren’t genuine prior to whatever case you were and it’s a reach to say that he was trying to discredit you before you even made it when his read was based on old content...

[Vulture]

Like, saying stuff like “Hectic didn’t wait on a case from me to decide that I’m scum... so he’s scum” is the sort of thing that I don’t follow really? Why does someone need to wait for more thoughts from you if they’ve already decided you’re scum from the other thoughts you’ve put into the thread?

What a fucking mis rep.

I said that going from "here is my scum team" to "I will bet the game on this read" from before post 787 to after post 787 is wild, and not a real thought. does not seem real. Not a genuine trajectory. Scum motivated

You jumping past all of the other things that make me suspicious of hectic both in this post and my last one, trying to narrow it down to just is a wild misrep.

Like I don’t feel like you’re trying to narrow down anything? It feels like you’ve decided now who to go after and push and case because it’s how you win. Even here the repetition of “not real not real” feels fake to me. It’s the same issue I had with your earlier post that was speculating on “oh, I could be thinking about the game wrong.” Those posts are the sort of thing that makes it seem like you’re speculating on the game but you’re just... not? It’s going through the motions.

[Vulture]

I am leaning back to vulture >enchant on that last slot

I’d also like to point out that this coming after I reaffirmed Enchant in my scumteam feels like an attempt to defend Enchant.

[Vulture]

I guess part of my issue too is that saying that it’s scummy for someone’s reads to change when someone starts scumreading them is weird because it is new information that forces you to rethink things. Dunno. Break’s over so I might expand on this later.

[ArcAngel9]

Vote Count 4-2

Hectic

:

Vulture

:

Enchant

:

Lukewarm

: Pavowski

Pavowski

:

marcistar

:

HockeyFan

:

Toogeloo

:

Not Voting

: Vulture, Lukewarm, marcistar, Toogeloo, Enchant, HockeyFan, , Hectic

Elimination is not achievable through votes

Deadline: Aug 20th, 2021

Countdown: (expired on 2021-08-19 22:00:00)

Mod Notes:

-

[Lukewarm]

This is one issue I have with your scumread on Hectic, not all of them. You made some weird posts that were tonally Bad that I picked up on as well. Like, bad-bad. He locks you in on that and you are saying here that it’s scummy that he didn’t wait to scumread you is my interpretation, but my problem with that is that you have an iso’s worth of stuff to read so him scumreading you and feeling confident isn’t an issue? He gauged that you weren’t genuine prior to whatever case you were and it’s a reach to say that he was trying to discredit you before you even made it when his read was based on old content.

I feel like you are completely missing the point I am making...

If you are town, actually stop and think about if for a second. It is like you have seen every single post I have made all game as scummy, which, even scum make an occasional townie post. (If you are scum trying to distract, more power to you)

I'm gonna spell it out one more time. First, look at post 773

Spoiler:

Inspired new solve:

Lukewarm + Enchant + Toogeloo

I reread Hockey and Vulture both again but I still think they're both town. T3 whiteknight of Hockey is a big factor for him. While, Vulture's 1v1 with Luewarm (assuming I am correct on Luke) is a big factor for him. Which leaves Toogeloo

Hectic has come up with a new solve. But do you know what is not here? A fucking gladiate. When hectic came up with 773 he was not "so sure on Luke being scum he was ready to bet the entire game on it." If anything, he leaves some wiggle room with that "assuming I am correct on Luke" line.

Now look at his very next post, 792

Spoiler:

lol I made all those posts in bed right after waking up, Pav. Glad you enjoyed them

This is such a delightful day for me

Luke points out I'm pretty much universally scum read and all of a sudden people are diving off the boat

I wonder what the PT looks like right now

It is interesting that you were a consensus scumread, I townread you, and you're now almost a consensus townread (you owe it all to me obv)

I'll think about this more seriously when gain the motivation again

Anyway,

Gladiate: Lukewarm

I request you shoot Luke or I today, marci

Now he is ready to bet the entire game on his read on me. That transition is what I am saying looks Bad to me, and does not make sense. Here is 100% of what I said between those 2 posts.

Spoiler:

Hey, sorry. I am actively trying to move right now (and gonna be VLA for the next like 3 days). I read stuff from today, and have lots and lots of thoughts, but am phone posting, so won't be able to get a full case down until tonight after we settle down and stop working tonight.

spark notes, I think that I have been thinking about this game all wrong, and I think that Pav is actually town, and I think that hectic is actually scum.

Once I get back in front of my computer, I will type it up.

That's it. And I (we) are supposed to believe that that post moved Hectic from "I'm thinking like is scum, but if he flips town I should revisit the reasons I am town reading vulture" to "like is so clearly scum that I am gonna bet the game on it?"

I was not saying that hectic scum reading me was a smoking gun against him. But his transition from 773 -> 792 looks pretty damning from my pov.

Looking at it now, I think he might have even been setting you up for the next miselim to win the game in 773. Get Marci to shoot Luke. Luke gets the gun. Turn around and say, Luke, I had it backwards. You were right about vulture, and I was just town reading him because I thought he was the town in your 1v1 that looked tvs, but now that you are conftown, I see I had it backwards. (Remember, I was town reading him when he wrote that post, so he would not have assumed I would just shoot him at the time of 773). I don't think it would have taken much to push me into shooting vulture if I got the gun pre like post 770.

The vulture follow up was something I missed the first time. Maybe it is just enchant for the third?

Idk. I am most sure about hectic + hockey, we can sort the last slot post flips.

[HockeyFan]

The real mafia are the friends we made along the way

[marcistar]

im... so conflicted...

[Toogeloo]

Don't say who you are thinking about shooting, but go through these exercises.

First, have you iso'd T3 and come to any conclusion who you this is more than likely town? Eliminate them from your pool of shots.

Second, did you get any pings in the iso that you feel has higher scum equity than other slots?

Finally, is there any shot you don't feel comfortable taking?

After considering those three things, trust your gut and fire at anyone you are comfortable with. It's not misfire and lose, so just take the shot you personally trust most. Try to ignore the distractions of all other players, myself included. Keep your reads to yourself and work it out internally.

Almost half the players left alive are attempting to direct the shot where they want you to think scum is, but are themselves scum, so you must block out the distraction and work with logic and your own gut.

[Pavowski]

This is strictly a prodge post. I still like shooting in Luke/Hectic. I don't have a lot to add except to say that Luke's tone has shifted here. Could be indignant town, could be flailing scum. My money's on the latter.

[HockeyFan]

Don't say who you are thinking about shooting, but go through these exercises.

First, have you iso'd T3 and come to any conclusion who you this is more than likely town? Eliminate them from your pool of shots.

Second, did you get any pings in the iso that you feel has higher scum equity than other slots?

Finally, is there any shot you don't feel comfortable taking?

After considering those three things, trust your gut and fire at anyone you are comfortable with. It's not misfire and lose, so just take the shot you personally trust most. Try to ignore the distractions of all other players, myself included. Keep your reads to yourself and work it out internally.

Almost half the players left alive are attempting to direct the shot where they want you to think scum is, but are themselves scum, so you must block out the distraction and work with logic and your own gut.

LOCKTOWN

[marcistar]

unfortunately, i dont feel confident in townreading people,

t3s vulture stuff interests me so much its so tempting.. i want to so bad...

but like its not the best move, yes?

i want a move thats best for the rest of the towns solves, mine shouldn't ultimately matter too much if i can do something that'll help make the game clearer for the townies out there.

so then out of lukewarm and hectic, maybe a hectic shoot?

Spoiler:

woah damn like my personalities really shining here,
specifically the part where i keep dragging things on

not too confident in making a shot, it must be frustrating for everyone but i typically like taking as much time as possible to think.
but i

know

i'll end up forgetting, so i think i should probably shoot soon.

i dont see where any trust of toogeloo being town comes from, can anyone who townreads them explain it for me?

i only really trust one person rn

ugh i hate being in power so much

[Lukewarm]

t3s vulture stuff interests me so much its so tempting.. i want to so bad...

but like its not the best move, yes?

Is that your strongest scum read?

What makes you say off hand that it is not the best?

[Toogeloo]

Marci, if you are confident in your town reads, then you shouldn't be saying where you want to shoot ahead of the shot.

[Pavowski]

I'll speak only for myself, Marci.

The Toog townread is based on the fact that the advice posts (as they've been characterized) encourage you to ignore the input of players who could be bullshitting you in favor of trusting your gut. This feels towny because it probably doesn't benefit scum.

However, their most recent one (don't say where you want to shoot) sorta rubs me the other way, partly because you've expressed you're *not* confident in your reads, and partially because laying out your intent will cause reactions from the group that could help us in the future. They've also played things pretty close to the vest in this game, which to me isn't super pro-town. Then again, this setup is not your standard mafia, so take that with all appropriate grains of salt.

I still think Toog's towny, but to characterize them as locktown is a stretch.

It has been said you should shoot your scummiest read. I'll disagree slightly. You should shoot the person you think is most likely to flip scum. That may not be the same person for you.

If you really aren't sure who will flip scum, shoot somebody who you think, if not scum, is reading people well -- because if you hit town, that person will be shooting for the game.

If you want feedback on your shot, I think Hectic is a good choice. If not scum, I'm fairly confident he'll turn around and shoot Luke, who (if Hectic *is* town), probably flips scum. I'd personally still shoot Luke first, though, between the two. But yes, by all means, trust your gut.

[Pavowski]

You have the benefit of being unable to lose the game on your shot, though, so let that relieve some of your stress