Large normal 236 [Game over]

[charlemagne]

the thing is no matter what you do, short of voting a very likely townie - it will be something i want because I am 95% sure i have PoE'd the whole scum team

This seems like really, really poor reasoning. If you're town, your priors of getting the entire scum team from a random sampling of three players (out of 14 not including you) is 3/14*2/13*1/12 or 0.27%. There can't be

that

many people you consider mechanically town—I'm not sure exactly what you believe, but I don't think that you've said anyone is locktown except House/Titus (correct me if I'm wrong.) That leaves 12 others, so a 3/12*2/11*1/10 or a 0.45% chance of guessing three players and having them being a scumteam. Koba, you're saying you're 95% sure you've PoE'd the whole scum team, which means that your reads based off meta+flips are somehow

one hundred and ninety times better than random.

I really don't understand how you get there, because I don't think that any player in existence (including xyz top amazing wonderful beautiful scumhunters, or even top amazing scumhunters who are intimately familiar with the meta of every player in the game) can be 190x +rand.

Can you walk the rest of the players in this game through the process where you go from the priors to your current state of confidence? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and honestly I haven't seen those thought processes spelled out where anyone here can be anywhere near as confident as you in your claims.
I'm really conflicted here. To the best of my knowledge you have a reputation for being overconfident/tunneling like this in games when you are town, so I'm hesitant to say this is especially scum indicative, but on the other hand I'd think town you should know better.

koba can you like. respond to this please

[House]

I have no interest in what someone that wants to call me a liar wants me to do.

Feel free to piss right off.

I'm not the only one who doesn't believe your claim my guy.
Play to win.

Then I'm scum.

Eliminate me so I don't have to put up with your shit anymore.

[DkKoba]

hey charles, what's your ranny read and why?

[DkKoba]

im not eliminating our doc

[House]

im not eliminating our doc

Nor should you.

Now vote me.

[DkKoba]

ok like holy shit house we weren't fucking born yesterday and we didnt start playing last week


I am *very* skilled at sniffing out fakeclaims.

if your claim is real - hell - I'll apologize after its confirmed


but as far as I'm concerened - there's a nightkill that didnt happen, and you and titus are suddenly townreading eachother so I made a better occam's razor conclusion and suddenly you're all angy over that.


like seriously stop insulting our intelligence. it's insulting as fuck.

[DkKoba]

the thing is no matter what you do, short of voting a very likely townie - it will be something i want because I am 95% sure i have PoE'd the whole scum team

This seems like really, really poor reasoning. If you're town, your priors of getting the entire scum team from a random sampling of three players (out of 14 not including you) is 3/14*2/13*1/12 or 0.27%. There can't be

that

many people you consider mechanically town—I'm not sure exactly what you believe, but I don't think that you've said anyone is locktown except House/Titus (correct me if I'm wrong.) That leaves 12 others, so a 3/12*2/11*1/10 or a 0.45% chance of guessing three players and having them being a scumteam. Koba, you're saying you're 95% sure you've PoE'd the whole scum team, which means that your reads based off meta+flips are somehow

one hundred and ninety times better than random.

I really don't understand how you get there, because I don't think that any player in existence (including xyz top amazing wonderful beautiful scumhunters, or even top amazing scumhunters who are intimately familiar with the meta of every player in the game) can be 190x +rand.

Can you walk the rest of the players in this game through the process where you go from the priors to your current state of confidence? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and honestly I haven't seen those thought processes spelled out where anyone here can be anywhere near as confident as you in your claims.
I'm really conflicted here. To the best of my knowledge you have a reputation for being overconfident/tunneling like this in games when you are town, so I'm hesitant to say this is especially scum indicative, but on the other hand I'd think town you should know better.

koba can you like. respond to this please

no lmao

[DkKoba]

that post is somehow like scummier than kyouko's whole iso and kyouko is flipped scum

[charlemagne]

hey charles, what's your ranny read and why?

i guess i missed them the first time around somehow? hammer was +rand town i think; other than that, none of their posts are strong evidence for or against them being scum. can you summarize the case against them?

[DkKoba]

lmaoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

[DkKoba]

i'll respect ur ranny read if u flip town - ok?

[DkKoba]

the hammer was not towny btw - kyouko was outted scum and a guaranteed wagon well before ranny even hammered.

like the way you are not aware of the gamestate i feel so bad but like im sure you would have been nice to play with if town.

[charlemagne]

the thing is no matter what you do, short of voting a very likely townie - it will be something i want because I am 95% sure i have PoE'd the whole scum team

This seems like really, really poor reasoning. If you're town, your priors of getting the entire scum team from a random sampling of three players (out of 14 not including you) is 3/14*2/13*1/12 or 0.27%. There can't be

that

many people you consider mechanically town—I'm not sure exactly what you believe, but I don't think that you've said anyone is locktown except House/Titus (correct me if I'm wrong.) That leaves 12 others, so a 3/12*2/11*1/10 or a 0.45% chance of guessing three players and having them being a scumteam. Koba, you're saying you're 95% sure you've PoE'd the whole scum team, which means that your reads based off meta+flips are somehow

one hundred and ninety times better than random.

I really don't understand how you get there, because I don't think that any player in existence (including xyz top amazing wonderful beautiful scumhunters, or even top amazing scumhunters who are intimately familiar with the meta of every player in the game) can be 190x +rand.

Can you walk the rest of the players in this game through the process where you go from the priors to your current state of confidence? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and honestly I haven't seen those thought processes spelled out where anyone here can be anywhere near as confident as you in your claims.
I'm really conflicted here. To the best of my knowledge you have a reputation for being overconfident/tunneling like this in games when you are town, so I'm hesitant to say this is especially scum indicative, but on the other hand I'd think town you should know better.

koba can you like. respond to this please

no lmao

alright, i've updated from koba!probtown to koba!leanscum. just an outright refusal to answer a valid criticism and handwaving "that post was scummy" is not it, at all.
my prior on koba town was previously pretty strong, but considering a combination of plausible deniability ("i had bad reads, that's no reason to lim me"), the possibility of hard bussing on d1, and this complete refusal to respond to me, i think a world where koba busses hard d1 is still in-absolute-numbers

unlikely

but not implausible.

[DkKoba]

kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 !

[House]

ok like holy shit house we weren't fucking born yesterday and we didnt start playing last week


I am *very* skilled at sniffing out fakeclaims.

if your claim is real - hell - I'll apologize after its confirmed

I'll look forward to it.

Afterwards, you can make it up to me by not talking to me anymore.

[DkKoba]

you're grasping so fucking hard its so cute tbh

[charlemagne]

the hammer was not towny btw - kyouko was outted scum and a guaranteed wagon well before ranny even hammered.

like the way you are not aware of the gamestate i feel so bad but like im sure you would have been nice to play with if town.

okay now you're just being rude. i tried my best to catch up on 75 pages or so in a single day assuming people would be reasonable enough to help fill in the gaps. your criticism of me for being unaware of the gamestate is weird since you

just asked me for my read on ranny

.
hammers on scum are +rand town, in my personal experience.

[House]

Oh yeah.

I also claim macho bloodhound.

[charlemagne]

kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 ! kyouko part 2 !

you're grasping so fucking hard its so cute tbh

alright, for the sake of my own sanity i'm gonna stop interacting with you for the rest of today. you're being

toxic

, koba. please stop.

[charlemagne]

Oh yeah.

I also claim macho bloodhound.

what do bloodhounds do?
can you give me the entire claim again

[House]

alright, for the sake of my own sanity i'm gonna stop interacting with you for the rest of today. you're being

toxic

, koba. please stop.

I hate agreeing with scum.

[House]

Oh yeah.

I also claim macho bloodhound.

what do bloodhounds do?
can you give me the entire claim again

Bloodhounds get a result of Town or Not Town when they investigate a player.

More powerful than alignment cops.

[Dwlee99]

the hammer was not towny btw - kyouko was outted scum and a guaranteed wagon well before ranny even hammered.

like the way you are not aware of the gamestate i feel so bad but like im sure you would have been nice to play with if town.

okay now you're just being rude. i tried my best to catch up on 75 pages or so in a single day assuming people would be reasonable enough to help fill in the gaps. your criticism of me for being unaware of the gamestate is weird since you

just asked me for my read on ranny

.
hammers on scum are +rand town, in my personal experience.

I'm pretty sure all available data says that hammering scum is +rand scum

[DkKoba]

And Koba, if going out of your way to offend me was done gambit to make scum second-guess the fact I'm confirmed town, give it up.

It would take some preschool logic to not see the only way Titus knows my role outside of being in a hood with me is if we broke the rules

oh i forgot to respond to this but like

i have way more respect for titus regarding mechs than you are giving titus here - I think titus is very intelligent and can figure stuff out by just reading posts.

[DkKoba]

the hammer was not towny btw - kyouko was outted scum and a guaranteed wagon well before ranny even hammered.

like the way you are not aware of the gamestate i feel so bad but like im sure you would have been nice to play with if town.

okay now you're just being rude. i tried my best to catch up on 75 pages or so in a single day assuming people would be reasonable enough to help fill in the gaps. your criticism of me for being unaware of the gamestate is weird since you

just asked me for my read on ranny

.
hammers on scum are +rand town, in my personal experience.

I'm pretty sure all available data says that hammering scum is +rand scum

really?
regardless, ranny's push onto kyouko was pillow asf, and they tried to hop off first chancethey got until the townblock made it inevitable.