Micro 1029: 8-Ball (but with Wolves) Game Over

[imaginality]

Everyone should be aware of this but if town votes for town, it's game over due to it being Xylo even if that player isn't 8-ball

The extension of this is that the 8 ball is almost certainly on scum, but we should be playing this as a regular 5p XLO regardless.

I slightly disagree. I agree there's no reason for scum to 8-ball town. But there's reason for us to try to lim the non-8-ball scum rather than the 8-ball scum. Because that makes the difference between it being any mislim loses tomorrow and 8-ball mislim loses tomorrow. Which potentially buys us an extra lim.

[imaginality]

House I echo the thoughts that your theory was vague and very mysterious, despite how i have been reading the whole time

You never explained why imagine is town (he's not)

I'm still waiting to hear any good reason why I'm scum beyond the suspicion I got for making the obvious case (on Bingle) D3, and scum reading me for that is silly in a game where scum have shown they don't make obvious decisions (Wisdom 8-ball).

I shouldn't be surprised I'm still waiting though, since there are no good reasons why I'm scum, since I'm not.

[Morning Tweet]

Well to be fair, scum did 8-ball Bingle yesterday, so..

But in any case, even if you wanna ignore your voting patterns, I think you're the least town of out the remaining suspects.

I'd definitely like to review in light of the flips and what we know now, maybe ill do that later

[House]

/inb4 scum team is MT & S_S

[Morning Tweet]

btw you are right that limming non 8-ball scum is better ye

[House]

Well to be fair, scum did 8-ball Bingle yesterday, so..

How do you know this?

[Morning Tweet]

This is one of my most obvious town games maybe ever

[imaginality]

If you don't unvote I have to play as if you're scum since we lose if you're not 50% of the time so

From your pov, if House was town that would mean 2/3 his vote on Bingle is on scum. So wouldn't we only lose 1/3 of the time even if both scum were around to hammer?

If House is scum 2/3 chance his vote is on town (plus or minus wifom) but we wouldn't lose in that scenario unless a townie misvotes.

[Morning Tweet]

Well to be fair, scum did 8-ball Bingle yesterday, so..

How do you know this?

TW was the 6-ball

You and I were never getting eliminated

SS was pushed by no player except for myself

imagine was pushed by worst

Bingle was suspected by just about the entire game at the start of the day and is the previous days CW (such as when Wisdom was)

Doesn't really make any sense for anyone else to have been 8-ball

[Morning Tweet]

If you don't unvote I have to play as if you're scum since we lose if you're not 50% of the time so

From your pov, if House was town that would mean 2/3 his vote on Bingle is on scum. So wouldn't we only lose 1/3 of the time even if both scum were around to hammer?

If House is scum 2/3 chance his vote is on town (plus or minus wifom) but we wouldn't lose in that scenario unless a townie misvotes.

You're killing me with the math

I was thinking 50/50 Bingle is scum or SS is scum. I was taking you as granted for scum

[House]

From your pov, if House was town that would mean 2/3 his vote on Bingle is on scum. So wouldn't we only lose 1/3 of the time even if both scum were around to hammer?

[Morning Tweet]

You all are killing me with the math arguments

(this is what i was trying to say)

[Morning Tweet]

I don't view the game from a random EV perspective, i factor my reads in and if i talk numbers im probably not using them in a precise manner

[House]

Well to be fair, scum did 8-ball Bingle yesterday, so..

How do you know this?

TW was the 6-ball

You and I were never getting eliminated

SS was pushed by no player except for myself

imagine was pushed by worst

Bingle was suspected by just about the entire game at the start of the day and is the previous days CW (such as when Wisdom was)

Doesn't really make any sense for anyone else to have been 8-ball

That read to me as a statement of fact, not speculation.

Also, "obvious" doesn't mean shit considering Wisdom flipped 8-ball and he's never an "obvious" choice.

[Morning Tweet]

In hindsight I think Wisdom was likely but I agree not obvious

Also I mean, it's less a statement of fact more a *bold statement of confidence*

I also just reviewed the VCs and if town!imagineality were 8-ball we would have lost

It's overwhelmingly likely it was Bingle

[imaginality]

I was invested in my theory = my theory was the worst & Bingle scum = since those two are scum, everyone else is town.

For those who aren't as fortunate.

If that were the reason why you were calling me town without qualification yesterday, why weren't you calling SS town for the same reason? You're making a big deal of your {Bingle, the worst} theory being wrong but you seemed happy to compromise on limming SS yesterday.

Calling me town yesterday and drama about oh noes my theory was wrong today don't seem to gel with willingness to compromise on SS.

[House]

I was invested in my theory = my theory was the worst & Bingle scum = since those two are scum, everyone else is town.

For those who aren't as fortunate.

If that were the reason why you were calling me town without qualification yesterday, why weren't you calling SS town for the same reason? You're making a big deal of your {Bingle, the worst} theory being wrong but you seemed happy to compromise on limming SS yesterday.

Calling me town yesterday and drama about oh noes my theory was wrong today don't seem to gel with willingness to compromise on SS.

I was also calling MT scum yesterday.

You left that part out.

What can I say?

[imaginality]

Tinfoil:

I unvoted just as MT was about to start the quick hammer.

When imaginality saw the wagon was gone, he did that ^ but would have voted if the wagon had been at 2.

MT is back in the game, after all

.

What does the bolded mean?

I had her written off as town prior to the tinfoil.

OK. I wasn't sure if you meant that or being back as in no longer rage quitting.

If I had any doubt at all about MT her posts yesterday as she weighed up who to vote and her reactions to you today really make it incredibly obvious she's town to my mind.

[House]

Tinfoil:

I unvoted just as MT was about to start the quick hammer.

When imaginality saw the wagon was gone, he did that ^ but would have voted if the wagon had been at 2.

MT is back in the game, after all

.

What does the bolded mean?

I had her written off as town prior to the tinfoil.

OK. I wasn't sure if you meant that or being back as in no longer rage quitting.

If I had any doubt at all about MT her posts yesterday as she weighed up who to vote and her reactions to you today really make it incredibly obvious she's town to my mind.

So from your PoV, the team has to be in {Bingle, me, S_S}, yes?

[Morning Tweet]

I still kind of find imagineality independently scummy due to more or less floating around and not having.. strong conviction over who dies exactly. Pretty much the same as SS. They both have reads but it feels like their reads could bend any which way to suit them.

Bingle has the opposite problem where he didn't really engage with worstie or reevaluate anything at all -- but I don't exactly blame him for doing that when worstie refused to engage him earlier in the game. It's a little easier to swallow, albeit a bit convenient.

Imagineality's post where he gives % chance of each player being scum and 8-ball worries me because it's the sort of thing I love to write as scum. It makes you look like you're evaluating the game from your own particular PoV and have a process but in reality you can easily mess with the numbers to get whereever you want without having to justify too much. You just operate under the guise of "This is optimal play according to my calculations". Of course, I think maximizing not hitting 8-ball and not hitting town on the surface isn't a bad idea. I just wonder if the way he did it was genuine.

Also I am probably 90% sure Bingle was 8-ball yesterday. We know it isn't me/House/worstie. SS is unlikely due to no one scumreading there vocally. And imagineality could be scum!8ball but cannot be town!8ball. Also if imagine was scum 8!ball it's still good to kill him. Reason I bring this up is that imagineality was perfectly set up to kill Bingle and win the game yesterday had me or the worst commited to that scumread, I feel.

I also also really didn't get the Bingle/worst scumteam theory, to be honest. I don't know if that's so much scummy as me not understanding -- but as a theory it just seemed really unlikely to me and it surprised me imagine had that as his most likely scenario.

Hm, hm, hm.. I think that's all I can remember on imagine. Early in the day he went after Bingle, later SS. (And obviously he was fine with worst too). Who the likely partner would be, I don't know yet. There's a lot of distancing from both if imagine is scum.

--

Bingle has really scummy votes this game. Like they're really bad. The D1 vote on Ali had strange justification (although not as bad as I originally thought). The hammer on Wisdom was blatantly really bad. And the hard tunnel on worst where he kept treating D3 worst like he was D1 worst was really unfortunate. For example, he kept acting like worstie was shading him when he wasn't (1205).

Maybe it was caused by the V/LA, I dunno. Bingle fell off and I kinda thought it was possible SS was actually town which would make the team imagine/Bingle.

Bingle doesnt really have convictions towards imagine or SS because he was so busy with worst. He could go either way as far as I can remember. Even though he assumed worst was with one

--

SS kind of wants to keep House on the table which is a little odd to me but not a dealbreaker. I've kind of gone over how his play is scummy but like yes he does have a tendency to play in some of these ways normally (not voicing his reads loudly or swaying the thread, etc). I think his mechanical strategy of hiding reads didn't really make any sense at all and only benefitted scum!him.

I feel like a lot of his defenses were "I wouldn't play this way because it looks scummy but this is my town game i always play" which doesn't really strike me as a super great defense since he could always invoke that as scum anyway. At best his tactics might be NAI but I'm not sure I could reasonably call him towny.

He had a correct townread on TW, the only player in the game that i can remember doing so. Why exactly he was so certain worstie was town, I'm not sure I'd have to review. He thought worstie was townier than me and also townread worst way harder than me yet I felt like i was fighting alone for worst there. Seriously, if SS is town he coulda helped a little more presenting his reasoning rather than watching it go, no?

There's actually a pretty interesting SS/imagine/Bingle interaction starting page 40, post 995. Lemme summarize:

At this moment in time, there is 1 vote for Bingle/SS/imagine.

995 - SS has imagineality as his highest scumread. He says that imagine is the most likely to pick Wisdom as the 8-ball and was also Wisdom's biggest suspect. He says that Bingle is playing an unimpressive game and lolhammered the 8-ball for no reason.

997 - Imagine asks SS why he thinks imagine is most likely to pick Wisdom for 8-ball

1010 - Bingle replies to a related post of SS's. SS says that imagine's push on him is suspicious and makes him(ss) wonder if he is the 8-ball. He justifies this by saying imagine has SS as his bottom read and unlikely 8-ball.
Bingle replies by saying "No, he has me and worst as scummier than you. You misread the readslist"

SS realizes that he did and his point on imagineality is unfounded.

why do i think this interaction is important? Uhhhh well it seems to me like SS genuinely thought imagine was pushing him there. Look in 955 -- it sounds like imagine has SS the lowest. But then in 958, imagine maths out Worst and Bingle as scummier than SS. SS only responds to the first, not realizing that imagineality is in fact not pushing him at that time

It seems.. distinctly not partnered to me, I guess. Maybe I'm reaching though. How do you mix up whether or not you're getting bussed and have to be corrected by a townie?

[Morning Tweet]

Theory: Bingle/SS/imagine are all scum

[House]

Theory: Bingle/SS/imagine are all scum

You're hurting my head right now.

I guess I deserve it for my earlier play.

[Morning Tweet]

Nah but to summarize their pushes..

Bingle -> hard push worst. Gun to head thinks SS is town and imagine is scum partner to TW
SS -> hard townread worst. Finds Bingle unimpressive and easily scum, finds imagine scummy due to the Wisdom interactions and also had paranoia when imagine pushed him.
imagine -> scumread worst + Bingle. Willing to go SS with me. Would have voted any of the three yesterday (and did vote worst/SS)

It looks the baddest for Bingle/imagine IMO -- both are halfway distancing in this interpretation, but not in a meaningful way since Bingle obviously has worstie and imagine has his math showing worst is best and will also help me with SS

[Morning Tweet]

SS also shut worstie down from voting Bingle (I haven't forgotten that!). I have to give him some credit, he did dissuade the Bingle wagon by pushing that Bingle was obvious 8-ball

[House]

MT, just consider yourself a double-voter.

I'll roll with whatever you decide.