Mini 645 - Innocence Falls (Game Over)

[kuribo]

Yeah, I've already assumed what he's going to claim, and it does make sense.

Darox 2 as scum would explain alot of nhat's lurky behavior.

And, Simenon, of course you know that if we lynch Darox 2 and he's a roleblocker, you'll be the next one run up the flagpole.

[Simenon]

whatever. Even if there are two protown roleblockers, we've got time to lynch someone else.

[Simenon]

I mean, even if we lynch two.

[sirdanilot]

I don't think there are two roleblockers. So yeah, I think simenon is scum.

I'm about to vote, but we should let ecto claim first.

[kuribo]

oh fuck.

I dunno, Sim, that doesn't sound like a Roleblocker that's caught scum in a falseclaim.

[Simenon]

"oh fuck, I missed Darox's claim."

[Jahudo]

Is there the possibility of a scum Mason partner?

Isn't the point of a mafia mason that the town mason wouldn't know it's a possibility? If you want we can summarize our role PM's? Cass do you want to go first when you check in?

I recall you not knowing what masons were early on in the game...I'm not sure how your claim fits with your interaction with Simenon from earlier either.

It wasn't that I didn't know about masons, I just didn't think I was "mason fishing" when I asked Simenon if TPT was his partner. I thought I was in the polygamist game because they started at the same time and we had a couple of the same players

[kuribo]

Is there the possibility of a scum Mason partner?

Isn't the point of a mafia mason that the town mason wouldn't know it's a possibility? If you want we can summarize our role PM's? Cass do you want to go first when you check in?

No. There are pro-scum masons, I've been scum before with a pro-scum mason. Unless you're specifically told that you know them to be town, you can't be sure.

Don't quote your role PM or anything dumb like that. Just tell me:

Are you absolutely sure Cass is town?

[Ythill]

sirdan- Doc
Ythill- tracker
Simenon- Roleblocker
Darox- Roleblocker
Jahudo and Cass- Masons
Goatrevolt and kuribo- Vanilla

It's kind of obvious what ecto is going to claim, isn't it?

It's obvious he'll claim vig, but will he claim one-shot or full? That's the most important question. The other is... will it be a fake claim?

We have only 3 'nillas, two dead scum, and six claimed power roles, with Ecto being an obvious secondary killer. The most plausible scenario in my mind is Sim as scum and Ecto as SK RBed by Darox N2.

I think our best course of action is to demand that the RBs target each other tonight; we hang Ecto today. There should be no NK. Tommorrow we hang Sim and, if he comes up town, we hang Darox. Or the other way around. If there's a NK tonight we can rethink things.

What does everyone think of this plan?

Vote: Ectomancer

[Goatrevolt]

Jahudo: Sometimes your mason role will say something along the lines of "Cass is confirmed town to you." If it doesn't, there is the chance that one of the masons is scum and a mason.

So here's what we have:

Kuribo - vanilla
Goat - vanilla
Darox - Roleblocker
Simenon - Roleblocker
Ythill - Tracker
Sirdanilot - Doctor
Jahudo - Mason
Cass - Mason
Ecto - ? (but fairly obvious)

It's possible one of Jahudo/Cass are scum, but I don't think it's something we really need to test at the moment. I'm fine with writing them off for now.

Sirdanilot is town. Either Ythill is lying and is scum (thus Sirdan is town) or Ythill is town and telling the truth (thus Sirdan is town).

Ecto is either town or potentially a SK. I'm leaning town, but if we lynch 3 scum and the game isn't over, it's worth checking out. There's no chance of him being mafia.

Darox claimed to roleblock Pacman night one. Pacman was a watcher, whereas nureins was a godfather. It would be very odd for Pacman to submit the kill unless the scum can both kill and use other abilities at the same time. I think this would suggest Ecto was successfully protected night 1. Night two he claimed a roleblock on Ecto. From Ecto's post earlier today, I can fairly safely assume Darox is not lying about this.

Both vanilla claims: I think this is a case of "too much power." Kuribo is confirmed town if sirdan's protection was what blocked the scum night kill. For now, that's a likely assumption, as Darox RBed Ecto who really can't be Mafia, and Simenon roleblocked Cass who is a mason. I have nothing to confirm me, but unless you feel the town legitimately has this much power, I think we're better off focusing on who's the lying power role.

Ythill: Both players he claimed to track make sense. He's able to confirm sirdan as pro-town either by virtue of being the last scum or being legitimately a tracker. It's possible he's scum, but at the moment I'm leaning town on him simply because of the way he's played today.

Simenon: Claimed RB on Pacman night 1 and Cass night 2. Came into the thread pushing Cass seemingly based on role information. That alone leads me to believe him as a more trustworthy Roleblocker claim than Darox. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense for a scum roleblocker to make a claim like that.


If we reverse things back to the end of yesterday, Ecto said something along the lines of "Darox is going to die." My guess of what happened is that instead of submitting the scum night kill, Darox roleblocked Ecto to keep him from getting the game winning vig shot. I also am a bit suspicious of the "let me check the mod, oh wait, I had already asked the mod I just had to check my PM box but it takes me 52 minutes" deal. One last thing worth checking up on. Was Nhat even around to submit a roleblock night 1?

[Simenon]

uhh no. Let's lynch one of me/Darox, have ecto shoot the other one, and then lynch ecto if necessary.

[kuribo]

nhat posted on the site clear up until Sept 28, N1 ended Sept 23

[Ythill]

Goat, I believe we cross posted. I think your reads sound solid, but my suggestion is the safer course of action, and it will potentially provide more info. We should play this my way.

[kuribo]

uhh no. Let's lynch one of me/Darox, have ecto shoot the other one, and then lynch ecto if necessary.

unless he was a 1-shot vig

[Goatrevolt]

Assuming one of the roleblockers is scum (likely) then our breakdown is:

Mafia watcher
Mafia Roleblocker
Mafia Godfather (vanilla scum basically)

against

Mason pair
Tracker
Doc
Vig
Roleblocker

which still seems fairly town power heavy. So I think the presence of a SK is plausible. Ecto targeting Pacman makes little sense though from a SK perspective, unless his plan was to fake a vig claim all along. Otherwise, why wouldn't he shoot the claimed doc or someone else considered likely to be town?


@Ythill: Another plan is this: We lynch Darox or Sim. The other roleblocker roleblocks Ectomancer.

[Goatrevolt]

uhh no. Let's lynch one of me/Darox, have ecto shoot the other one, and then lynch ecto if necessary.

unless he was a 1-shot vig

I doubt it based on his post earlier today. The "what happened last night" thing would highly suggest he got blocked trying to do something.

[Jahudo]

Are you absolutely sure Cass is town?

Yes

[Ythill]

Otherwise, why wouldn't he shoot the claimed doc or someone else considered likely to be town?

When I've played SK, I've tried to get a scum early, b/c it legitimizes the vig claim and makes a tidy endgame more plausible (in theory, I've only lost as SK). Your alternative sounds okay, Sim's does not. We could combine them...

Lynch Darox or Sim. The other is killed by Ecto and blocks Ecto. Sirdan should protect one of: me, kuribo, or Goat.

I'll change my vote if we decide on this combined plan.

[Goatrevolt]

Otherwise, why wouldn't he shoot the claimed doc or someone else considered likely to be town?

When I've played SK, I've tried to get a scum early, b/c it legitimizes the vig claim and makes a tidy endgame more plausible (in theory, I've only lost as SK). Your alternative sounds okay, Sim's does not. We could combine them...

Lynch Darox or Sim. The other is killed by Ecto and blocks Ecto. Sirdan should protect one of: me, kuribo, or Goat.

I'll change my vote if we decide on this combined plan.

Sounds good to me. I prefer this plan simply because it's more tidy if Ecto is actually a town vig and not a SK. If Ecto is a SK, it should give us the same result.

Vote Darox

[Jahudo]

I want to hear from Ecto but picking between Darox and Sim sounds like a good plan.

[Ythill]

If Ecto is a SK, it should give us the same result.

Should it?

If Ecto is the SK, he wants to kill town today. So if we lynch the town RB, he will not kill the other RB. And a scum RB, knowing this, will also kill town. Which leaves us @ 1:1:4. I believe there are some worst case scenarios that could cost us the game with those numbers, but I'm not sure how likely they are.

Anyway, I still feel it's an acceptable risk and will swap my vote if more people agree, but I stand by the statement that an Ecto lynch is the safer play, because it will prevent all NKs except in one of those worse case scenarios, which will reveal itself by the existence of a NK and leave us at 1:6 or 2:5 to deal with it.

[Ectomancer]

As has been stated, it is no surprise that my role is Vig.

Day 1 was a split between Darox and Pacman. I hate going into Day 2 debating whether to kill the 'other scummy player', so I shot Pacman.
Nureins was muddying the waters so thickly that he had to be lynched Day 2, regardless of whether he was town or scum. If you research me, you'll know that is one of my personal scum tells.
My statement about killing Darox was a calculated one. After Pacman was shot, it was clear that we had an SK/Vig floating around. My question was whether I would be allowed to kill him or not. However, I did not target him last night, instead I targeted Sirdanilot. Doc claim, not killed, and I wanted to kill off a questionable player. I would also still gain information. If I was roleblocked, it was likely Darox as a roleblocker, or we have an 8:4 setup and Darox is very likely mafia and a mafia roleblocker saved his hide.
Anyhow, yeah, I could be an SK. That's really not a concern today, as I can be killed when we are down to 3 players and town wins. (me too to Ythill, I hunt scum early and try to maintain a balance afterwards)

So, what to do? My first inclination was to lynch Darox, but there is a bit of a problem (despite his horribly unbelievable claim).

Here's the problem, you never, ever, should base a lynch upon trying to outguess the mod. It is my impression that one of the first things you do when designing a game is to prevent a Day 1 mass claim from breaking things. If we had done that, and both were telling the truth, we would likely lynch either Darox or Simenon, and then the other if/when the first turned up town. As a mod, I would sit back and chuckle as you tried to outguess me and lynched 2 pro-town power roles.

Now, I am 99% certain that Darox is a roleblocker, Simenon I'm not sure. I haven't looked at his targets and results deeply yet. We've got some leeway and a very good chance of playing this out.

So, we'll get into the details, but of this I am certain: Sirdan should protect

me

. I kill as town directs. If we have a mafia roleblocker, they either have to block me to save their hide, or we win when I kill them. Despite my earlier concerns, I would say lynch Darox and I kill Simenon tonight. That would account for myself and the 2 roleblockers. Ythill then tracks someone of his choosing to see if anyone is out where they should not be. That should leave us either 6 or 7 players left tomorrow with good information or a win.
If we still haven't won, and I am suspected SK, and we have only 6 players (which means our remaining scum somehow got a kill), we can either lynch, get another night kill by me (leaving 4) and if scum somehow manages to slip the net AGAIN (highly doubtful), then we would be left with a 1-1-1 situation. Instead of that, we could also no lynch, and use my kill at night, making sure that total player numbers remain high.

Thoughts?

[Ectomancer]

EBWOP: I think my plan is much better than yours Ythill, especially when you consider that I am easily killed in end game with only 2 remaining town members. We've got far better numbers than that right now, and if I wasn't 95% convinced that you weren't simply guessing on the targeting last night, you would be very high on my suspect list.

[Ythill]

...if I wasn't 95% convinced that you weren't simply guessing on the targeting last night, you would be very high on my suspect list.

I don't understand what you mean. Guessing on what targeting?

Anyhow, yeah, I could be an SK. That's really not a concern today...

This makes my arm-hairs stand on end.

So, we'll get into the details, but of this I am certain: Sirdan should protect

me.

Fail. We don't need your NK to win, but we may need to know your alignment.

Nothing about Ecto's claim changes my stance. I think an Ecto lynch with RBs saying they will target each other is the safest plan, but lynching one RB with the above-mentioned target arrangements is an acceptable alternative.

[Ectomancer]

So yeah you guessed my target right, that gives us a good reason to think you are town...

No it doesn't. It means I am either scum or a tracker. Really, it tells you nothing about me that isn't apparent from my claim. See, if you're the doc, I could know that you targeted kuribo because I could be scum who tried to kill him. I'm not, but it's a distinct possibility from your point of view.

What my claim

does

confirm is that you are the doc (unless one of the last two people claims doc who protected kuribo). It also confirms kuribo as town. See, either he was protected from the NK or Ecto is scum who got blocked targeting someone else. Either way, kuribo is

not

the last scum.

Unless you believe this was a 4:8 setup with Ecto and kuribo as buddies, which is extremely unlikely.

Hello? What do you mean guessing on what targeting? Quite irritating for people to conveniently forget what they just said.

I dont care of your hairs are standing on end or not, in fact, that very statement gives you another notch on the scum meter if you understand anything about SK's and the numbers game.

There is absolutely no reason at all to confirm my alignment today. In fact, I am becoming even more suspicious as you try to limit the town's options to only being able to lynch and remove our ability to also kill at night.

My plan is definitely superior to yours and explained, with actual numbers and scenarios why that it is. Obviously that is up to town to decide, but I cant think of anyone except scum that would want to remove both roleblockers

and

the Vig/SK, leaving yourself as a claimed tracker to incriminate whomever you wish.
With my plan, the roleblockers are tested, town retains an additional way to remove suspects, and still has plenty of time to kill me off. I explained how the net will work to trap scum. I stated that you should be left to choose who to track, but I think that keeping an eye on our masons would not be a bad move.

I now expect you to further justify your proposal. If you are scum, we lynch me today, you turn in a no kill tonight, putting suspicion on both roleblockers, meaning we lynch one of them tomorrow, you kill the next night, we lynch the other roleblocker the following day and we are down to 5 players. You then cast suspicion on the Masons (because who knows if they are really confirmed?) getting one of them lynched, you kill at night, then implicate the other mason as a 'tracker' and win the game as scum.

Sorry, I will do everything possible to stop your plan. Let's see how good you are at guessing. You might have gotten lucky the first time, but let's see how good you are at guessing who Sirdan will target

tonight

. Make your own choice Sirdan, protect who you will and let's test our 'tracker' as well as our roleblockers. I think that my numbers show that even if I am an SK, I have almost no chance of winning, while I've outlined your path to victory as scum very explicitly.