Mini 645 - Innocence Falls (Game Over)

[Goatrevolt]

If Ythill is scum there was no "guessing" involved. He would have tried to kill Kuribo and failed, thus clearly he can imply (or is it infer? Let's get TPT back in here!) Sirdan targeted Kuribo.

I like this plan: We lynch Darox. Ecto targets Simenon for a kill. Simenon roleblocks Ecto. Ythill tracks Sirdanilot. Sirdan protects anyone except Simenon.

That scenario should almost certainly result in no kill. Simenon can't kill because he's blocking Ecto. Ecto should be roleblocked and thus unable to kill. If Ythill is scum, I bet he is a tracker as claimed, and would be forced to track Sirdan to avoid getting caught. By doing this, we shut down the scum NK and give the only kill to the town.

[Ythill]

Hello? What do you mean guessing on what targeting? Quite irritating for people to conveniently forget what they just said.

I didn't forget what I said, I just figured you meant something else because to suggest that guessing = town in this situation is absolutely retarded. If I'm scum, i know who he targeted. If I'm tracker, I know who he targeted. If I'm neither, why would I claim tracker at all?

Either way, it's pretty obvious I didn't guess, but that fact says absolutely nothing about my alignment. So I don't understand why you are hinging your suspicions on it.

With my plan, the roleblockers are tested, town retains an additional way to remove suspects, and still has plenty of time to kill me off.

What difference does time make? Kills are all that matter. If we limit the number of kills, we've got plenty of opportunities to lynch scum. Even if the scum is not one of the RBs and that person chooses to not kill, it will allow us to have at least one day with no NK. That's good for town, not scum.

But whatever...

I've already said that I agree that the lynch-one-RB plan is an acceptable alternative and the few people who have stated their opinions seem to think it's okay. Why are you arguing it so vehemently?

I think that my numbers show that even if I am an SK, I have almost no chance of winning...

Chance or no, if you are a SK (which is quite plausible) you're going to try your hardest. One of the reasons I like my plan better is that you like the other plan better.

...while I've outlined your path to victory as scum very explicitly.

You mean that fairy tale where I card-flip a mason and then still get his claimed buddy mislynched? Yeah, right. Too bad for hypothetical-me-as-scum that Jah just confirmed the masons.

If you and our first RB lynch both come up town... and the second RB is town... it will be obvious to him that I am scum and he will RB me. Not to mention have a good chance of getting me lynched when that N4 no kill is revealed.

It's interesting to me that you ask us to take your alignment at face value. Not a very townie thing to do.

I like this plan: We lynch Darox. Ecto targets Simenon for a kill. Simenon roleblocks Ecto. Ythill tracks Sirdanilot. Sirdan protects anyone except Simenon.

Sure, I'll track sirdan if we go with that plan. I'm still waiting on others to give support one way or another before moving my vote. This decision should not be made by a few of us.

[Ectomancer]

It's interesting to me that you ask us to take your alignment at face value. Not a very townie thing to do.

What are you about here Ythill? It's very clear that I have not asked the town to take my alignment at face value. I said very clearly that it isn't important

today

, and the reason is that I am very easily controlled regardless of alignment, and can easily be taken out at a later point. Right now I am a very good tool for the town, and not using me, whether you know my alignment or not, is certainly anti-town.
The one thing you said that is correct is that I don't give up. In fact, if you look, you can find a game where I actually claimed SK and continued to try to somehow pull off a win or tie. (I've taken it as a personal affront before when someone said I was 'giving up')

Anyhow, Goat's reply reminded me that your 'guess' wouldn't have been a guess at all, meaning you could absolutely be scum. (yes, I know you mentioned it earlier)

As for the 'fairy tale'? If I were in your position and scum, I could definitely pull that one off. I certainly would say the same for you. Regardless of Jah's simple 'yes' statement, the wording of mason PM's to confirm/not confirm your partner's alignment varies from mod to mod. It would be very easy to cast enough doubt to get him lynched, especially if you are not forced to 'prove' your tracking ability a time or two more. In point of fact, as expressed earlier, my underlying concern is that the mod threw in 2 pro-town roleblockers as mod-bait when 2 were exposed.

If you and our first RB lynch both come up town... and the second RB is town... it will be obvious to him that I am scum and he will RB me. Not to mention have a good chance of getting me lynched when that N4 no kill is revealed.

No. I've had too many games with confirmed/unconfirmed masons and the

players themselves

misinterpreting what exactly the mod was saying, and what he was not. One of my RL friends got caught with his pants down when he

assumed

that his partner was town along with him. (you see why Im saying that nailing both masons, combined with your tracker 'confirm', is hardly a fairy tale?) No kills mean very little when scum can simply not kill in order to set someone up. Scum doesnt need to NK at all if they can manipulate the lynch to suit their needs.

Obviously Im coming from 2 fronts here. 1 is that you could very well be scum. 2 is that your assumptions and method of elimination could cost us should one of the masons be the remaining scum.

Anyhow, enough bickering. I like the plan as Goat laid it out and I'm glad that you agree to it. Let's lay the cards and see what the future holds. I think with today being a bit of an extended weekend, we need another day or two to get rest of the input from everyone else.

[kuribo]

Ummm, guys?

Ecto said he targetted sirdan.

Darox claimed to have RB'd ecto LONG before ecto claimed.

Sirdan is still alive.

Our other roleblocker claimed to block Cass.

SO, Darox's claim stands on its face more due to the fact that Sirdan lives.

Instead of trying to game the system, let's look at these facts and ask ourselves:

Would Scum Darox roleblock Ecto, not knowing whether he was a vig or not? Clearly scum needs to roleblock the doc if they have a Mafia Roleblocker. But the fact that Ecto failed to kill Sirdan says to me that Sim isn't being truthful about blocking Cass.

Here's what I think happened:

Sirdan doc protects me, as verified by Ythill. Ythill is confirmed because Mafia already lost their tracker in pacman, so Ythill is a pro-town tracker. This confirms Sirdan as doc, because I am not dead and if Sirdan were scum, I would be.

Ecto tries to vig / SK kill Sirdan. But Darox roleblocks Ecto, denying him the vig / SK kill. The result: No kill on Night 2.

Vote: Simenon

[Darox]

Wait wait wait.

Ecto tried to kill the claimed doc?

[Jahudo]

Mafia already lost their tracker in pacman, so Ythill is a pro-town tracker.

Pacman was watcher. I don't know if that eliminates a scum tracker possibility though.

[Jahudo]

Recap. Does this look accurate?

The Claims:
Sirdan the doc protected kuribo last night, ecto night 1
Ythill tracked sirdan to kuribo night 2, Cass going nowhere night 1
Simenon roleblocked Cass night 2 and pacman night 1
Darox 2 roleblocked Ecto night 2 and pacman night 1
Jahudo mason
Cass mason
Goatrevolt vanilla town
Kuribo vanilla town
Ecto Vig was roleblocked night 2 and killed pacman night 1

The Questions:
Why didn’t scum kill night 1: Because pacman was RB’ed or Ecto was protected. I find it more likely that nureins tried to night kill because he was Godfather and was more active than pacman anyway.
Why didn’t scum kill night 2: Because kuribo was protected.

And Today's plans:
YTHILL’s PLAN:
Lynch Ecto today, have RBs target each other at night. Hang RB tomorrow and next day if needed.

GOAT's PLAN:
Lynch Darox or Sim today. The other RB’s Ecto at night.

ECTO’s PLAN:
Lynch Darox. Ecto kills Sim at night.

[Erratus Apathos]

Vote Count

Darox: (2) Simenon, Goatrevolt
Ectomancer: (1) Ythill
Simenon: (1) kuribo

Not voting: sirdanilot, Darox, Ectomancer, Jahudo, Cass

[Goatrevolt]

SO, Darox's claim stands on its face more due to the fact that Sirdan lives.

Obviously Darox is a roleblocker. That doesn't mean he's town.

Would Scum Darox roleblock Ecto, not knowing whether he was a vig or not? Clearly scum needs to roleblock the doc if they have a Mafia Roleblocker. But the fact that Ecto failed to kill Sirdan says to me that Sim isn't being truthful about blocking Cass.

Both could plausibly be roleblockers. I think both ARE roleblockers. Simenon came into the day today voting Cass in a manner that suggested all kinds of hidden information. I'm inclined to believe he's telling the truth about being a roleblocker who blocked Cass. If I was a roleblocker, blocked Cass and no night kill happened, I would have come into the day in a very similar manner as that.

"Would scum Darox roleblock Ecto?" Absolutely. Ecto said point blank "Darox is going to die" yesterday. If I were a roleblocker I would block the shit out of that.

Sirdan doc protects me, as verified by Ythill. Ythill is confirmed because Mafia already lost their tracker in pacman, so Ythill is a pro-town tracker. This confirms Sirdan as doc, because I am not dead and if Sirdan were scum, I would be.

Ythill isn't confirmed. Pacman was a watcher. Ythill is a tracker. It's plausible Ythill is a scum tracker to compliment Pacman. It's also plausible he's a town tracker to offset him. Sirdanilot is confirmed as town though. Either Ythill is town and telling the truth, thus Sirdan is confirmed, or Ythill is scum and knows Sirdan targeted Kuribo because he tried to kill Kuribo. In that case, Sirdan is also confirmed.


I have 2 hypothesis on what happened last night:

1. Darox is scum and rather than attempt a NK, he instead roleblocks Ectomancer, who has claimed that he will shoot Darox. A scum Darox MUST make this play to survive, or else risk that Ecto is lying or bluffing. Ythill targets Sirdanilot. Simenon targets Cass. Ecto shoots Sirdanilot.

2. Ythill is scum and shot Kuribo. Sirdanilot made the protection and saved him. Darox roleblocked Ecto. Simenon roleblocked Cass. Ecto shot at Sirdanilot.

I guess also a possibility is Simenon shot at Kuribo and came into the day trying to pin it on Cass. Seems risky and uncharacteristic for scum.

Why didn’t scum kill night 1: Because pacman was RB’ed or Ecto was protected. I find it more likely that nureins tried to night kill because he was Godfather and was more active than pacman anyway.

I believe that Ectomancer was the intended kill and was successfully protected by Sirdanilot. Why wouldn't nureins submit the kill over pacman, who is a watcher?

Why didn’t scum kill night 2: Because kuribo was protected.

Kuribo was protected or the scum chose to use an ability rather than kill (Darox blocks Ecto or Ythill tracks Sirdan).

Personally, I don't think anyone is lying about their role. I just think one of these roles is scum.

[kuribo]

Watcher and Tracker are so similar, it's really hard for me to imagine both being on the same side though.

[kuribo]

So what we should be asking is,

Ecto, why would you try and kill the uncounterclaimed doc?

[Ythill]

Ecto, why would you try and kill the uncounterclaimed doc?

He already explained this.

@Jah: Your recap looks okay. Which plan do you prefer?

Same question for everyone who hasn't answered it. Which is your preferred plan?

[sirdanilot]

I'm leaning towards lynching sim and following goat's plan, currently.

[Jahudo]

I don't think there are two town RBs and we should settle that today in case we still have 2 scum. If we kill Ecto, who's not scum, today and mislynch tomorrow, I don't want to be at day 5 with 2 scum and at least 3 town.

So I think it should either be Darox or Sim today. If they're town, I think Ecto should NK the other because I think one of them is lying. If we get a scum today, Ecto might be SK and we can win tomorrow, or we might have a fourth scum which we can deal with day 5 with 1 scum and at least 3 town.

Vote: Simenon

[Ectomancer]

I dont get why we are choosing Simenon today. My feeling, and Goat's review indicates that Darox is the more likely scum.

[kuribo]

I dont get why we are choosing Simenon today. My feeling, and Goat's review indicates that Darox is the more likely scum.

Because Darox claimed to have blocked your vig kill, in my mind, it gives his claim more weight.

[Goatrevolt]

I think where the disconnect lies is that I'm working from the assumption that both ARE roleblockers. I think both Darox and Simenon have played in a way to suggest that they are what they claim. From that starting point, I believe Darox simply makes more sense as scum.

The people voting Simenon seem to be approaching it from the idea that one of them is lying about being a roleblocker. If that's the case, obviously Simenon would be the one lying since Darox's RB is confirmed.

If the question is: Could both be roleblockers? The answer is yes. It's possible one is a scum RB and the other a town one. It's possible both are town (though I find that less likely).

Anyway, I think the best thing we can do is go back through the thread and read through earlier posts and see if they make sense or fit people's claims. It's worth reading through to see if Simenon fits as a RB, if Ythill fits as a tracker, if Cass/Jahudo fit as masons. I remember Cass defending Jahudo fairly strongly day 1, which would certainly support them being masons together, for instance.

[kuribo]

Anyway, I think the best thing we can do is go back through the thread and read through earlier posts and see if they make sense or fit people's claims. It's worth reading through to see if Simenon fits as a RB, if Ythill fits as a tracker, if Cass/Jahudo fit as masons. I remember Cass defending Jahudo fairly strongly day 1, which would certainly support them being masons together, for instance.

Ythill as tracker is confirmed unless you think sirdan and he are scum partners. Which is a bit of a stretch since I fully expected them to travel to one another's homes and attack the other.

[Goatrevolt]

Anyway, I think the best thing we can do is go back through the thread and read through earlier posts and see if they make sense or fit people's claims. It's worth reading through to see if Simenon fits as a RB, if Ythill fits as a tracker, if Cass/Jahudo fit as masons. I remember Cass defending Jahudo fairly strongly day 1, which would certainly support them being masons together, for instance.

Ythill as tracker is confirmed unless you think sirdan and he are scum partners. Which is a bit of a stretch since I fully expected them to travel to one another's homes and attack the other.

Not necessarily. He could have been scum submitting a night kill on you, and since his kill was blocked, he could claim tracker knowing that Sirdanilot had to have protected you.

However, he would have had to guess that Cass was vanilla or some other non-targeting role. So, I would agree that Ythill is most likely a tracker. Not guaranteed though.

[kuribo]

By jove, you're right, how could I not realize that?

[Simenon]

Watcher and Tracker are so similar, it's really hard for me to imagine both being on the same side though.

Blue Jam Mafia

[Ectomancer]

I dont get why we are choosing Simenon today. My feeling, and Goat's review indicates that Darox is the more likely scum.

Because Darox claimed to have blocked your vig kill, in my mind, it gives his claim more weight.

I think I mentioned that as well, but at the time I hadn't gone back and looked at Simenon closely. Town sentiment looks like we kill Simenon today and I go for Darox while he roleblocks me. Sirdan protects somebody and Ythill will tell us who he protected tomorrow.

Whenever you all are ready.

Anything else Simenon? Look for cracks and please give your opinion. I realize that if you are scum, you are hardly motivated to do so, but if town, we need your experience.

[Simenon]

Honestly, does it matter? Follow the Goat plan. I endorse it. I do wonder, though, why I would counter Darox when it would seem better for a scum just to claim townie. But that's all for posterity's sake.

And I don't think you need protecting Ecto.

[Ythill]

In case Ecto isn't town, I'd prefer to lynch the scummier of the two RBs. I think Goat's logic is flawless and I believe that both are RBs, so I'd prefer a Darox lynch. But whatever.

unvote

And where the hell is Cass?

Mod, is it time to prod Cass yet?

I'd rather not go to night until she's confrimed the mason claim.

[Ectomancer]

Honestly, does it matter? Follow the Goat plan. I endorse it. I do wonder, though, why I would counter Darox when it would seem better for a scum just to claim townie. But that's all for posterity's sake.

And I don't think you need protecting Ecto.

True, and true. I think either Darox or Ythill are the remaining scum. With me going after Darox, he cant kill me, and Ythill would have to guess at Sirdan's choice if he chose to kill (and he would clear Darox by killing). The best Ythill could hope for is to no kill tonight, putting Darox in the sights tomorrow, then try to go back to the Ecto as SK theory, which would turn up incorrect, then somehow try to get someone other than himself lynched.
I think at this point Kuribo, Goat, and Sirdan are almost definitely confirmed? If after all of this, we still haven't found scum, we need to arrange for those 3 and the masons to be alive during the day, and those 3 make sure to lynch masons until we win.